Cousins Is The Man

[petedaddy]

Except you, ncr2h, and others refuse to acknowledge that locking him up now is a significant risk when you're talking about him becoming the highest paid player on the team vs. just 1 season as a starter. It's enough of a risk, right now, that Scott and Co. decided it was worth risking paying him  potentially 2-3 million more per year rather than risk him regressing and be stuck with a mega contract that cripples the team. 

 

Basically it's you either feel there's enough evidence on Kirk to pay him $20 million or more per year, whatever he would settle for, or you feel there's not enough evidence yet to warrant investing that kind of money in him. Yes, there is a very real risk he does well and his demands go up, but there's a very real risk he regresses in which case the team is Flacco level screwed. We as fans can believe in Kirk, and I do too, but GMs don't have that luxury. When you remove emotion from it, Scott is taking a $8-$12 million gamble over a $100 million gamble.

 

and you are refusing to acknowledge that there is a significant risk in not locking him up long term.  in my opinion the bigger risk is in not locking him up long term

 

again, it's all about guarantees, there is no $100 million gamble, there is no $100 million guaranteed contract, hell even von miller's contract was 70 million guaranteed

 

we are beyond flacco level screwed if kirk fails, and it wouldn't be because of the contract

[Tsailand]

3. The way you win in a salary cap league is you pay players less than they're worth. 

 

I think most people here don't understand that yet.

 

The other thing they don't understand is that draft picks are valuable because they let you pay players much less than their real value for the first four years.

again, it's all about guarantees, there is no $100 million gamble, there is no $100 million guaranteed contract, hell even von miller's contract was 70 million guaranteed

 

70 million guaranteed to a non-QB astonishes me.  So much risk for a player who never even touches the ball.... good luck to the Broncos but I think they will regret this.

[petedaddy]

I think most people here don't understand that yet.

 

The other thing they don't understand is that draft picks are valuable because they let you pay players much less than their real value for the first four years.

 

70 million guaranteed to a non-QB astonishes me.  So much risk for a player who never even touches the ball.... good luck to the Broncos but I think they will regret this.

 

yea the von miller deal is pretty incredible, but i will say if anyone on the defensive side of the ball would be worth it, it would be him, dude was a flat out monster in the playoffs

 

of course, let's see how they feel in a few years

[Momma There Goes That Man]

I think most people here don't understand that yet.

The other thing they don't understand is that draft picks are valuable because they let you pay players much less than their real value for the first four years.

Exactly. I don't think we will be able to afford Kirk if he has a great season but even if we do, it's going to come at the expense of the rest of the team.

I think there was some stat that prior to 2014 no QB had won a SB after signing their 2nd big contract because it simply took too much cap and hurt the team too much.

The two that did it were Brady in 14 who always plays on a discount and Manning last year who didn't exactly earn his huge salary either. Again he was aided by a ton of great defensive players on cheap and rookie contracts

[MisterPinstripe]

So how much do you all think his contract demands are going to go up if he has a great year? Unless he gets us to the Super Bowl it will be less than Luck money. If he does, it will be Luck money perhaps a little more. Thats an increase of a few million per year and more of it being guaranteed. I really dont see why people think him playing well will mean we all of the sudden cant afford to pay him and he will go somewhere else. A few million is not a big deal, and if he balls out more guarantees dont matter as he will be here for the long term anyway.

[DJD2]

So how much do you all think his contract demands are going to go up if he has a great year? Unless he gets us to the Super Bowl it will be less than Luck money. If he does, it will be Luck money perhaps a little more. Thats an increase of a few million per year and more of it being guaranteed. I really dont see why people think him playing well will mean we all of the sudden cant afford to pay him and he will go somewhere else. A few million is not a big deal, and if he balls out more guarantees dont matter as he will be here for the long term anyway.

 

If I'm Cousin's agent, the starting point for guaranteed money on a long term contract would be the equivalent value of the franchise tag for the next 2 years (I believe it would be ~ 24M for yr2 and ~ 34M for yr3).

 

If you include the 19M for playing on the franchise tag this year, that is 77M guaranteed for 3 yrs.

 

Really hard to understand why the team would risk this scenario.

[pjfootballer]

I believe in what Scot is doing.  In less than two years, he's shown to be the best General Manager we've had since Bobby Beathard.  The leaks are gone.  The drafts have been better.  The fiscal responsibility has been better (no cap hell).  The restraint has been better.  The vision for the present and future has been better. The hierarchy has been better (Front Office running real well).  We've been lauded by some of our strongest critics how the team is turning around and becoming a competent franchise.

 

With that said, Scot is not perfect.  Scot has made mistakes in the past.  He has made mistakes while he's been here.  He will make mistakes in the future.  What he HAS done, is minimize the mistakes.  He's brought competency to the front office.  While I have not agreed with "everything" he's done, I still believe in him and believe that he will continue to make us a better team.

 

For some of the naysayers, I kind of shake my head at the "theories" you guys have about what Scot is thinking and doing. As armchair GM's anything any of us think or say is just pure speculation and throwing poo at the wall. We are not in Redskins Park (excuse me, Inova Redskins Park, ha-ha), we are not in the meetings and we are not privy to what goes on.  It's laughable for anyone to post anything stating that Scot doesn't know what he's doing, as if you know more than him.  His hiring was applauded by many in the league.  I never heard one negative thing from anyone about his hiring.  

 

I just find it hard to believe that we still have this much negativism towards our GM after all that he's done. It just doesn't make sense. Do you guys want to go back to the Vinny days?  I mean, that was just SO much fun being a laughingstock of the league. Maybe you should sit back and reflect on the Vinny days and compare them to now and you'd be surprised at how far along we've come. Do you think with all of the injuries we had last year, that we would have won 9 games under Vinny?  Our depth was severely tested last year and we passed. Never would have happened before.

 

Again, not sure what all the hub-bub is about.  We still control Kirk for one more year after this, even if we don't get a long term deal done.  But if I were a betting man, I think it gets done right after the offseason.  Sometimes you just have to let things like this play out. I.m very excited for this team this year.  The first time in a long time.  And not "yahoo, we're going to the Super Bowl" excited.  Just excited to build on what we did the second half last year.  I like that we re-signed a lot of our own.  We had very little turnover on the coaching staff.  That is what I'm excited about.

 

I'll leave the contract worries to the experts (our Front Office) and worry about it if the day comes where we can't retain Kirk and he becomes a free agent.  But I really don't think it will get to that.

 

Training Camp is officially open today.  Let's go.  Enough of this bickering about contracts.  Let's get it on. 

[ncr2h]

So how much do you all think his contract demands are going to go up if he has a great year? Unless he gets us to the Super Bowl it will be less than Luck money. If he does, it will be Luck money perhaps a little more. Thats an increase of a few million per year and more of it being guaranteed. I really dont see why people think him playing well will mean we all of the sudden cant afford to pay him and he will go somewhere else. A few million is not a big deal, and if he balls out more guarantees dont matter as he will be here for the long term anyway.

 

If he has a year that is similar to his 2015 season, he should command Andrew Luck money.  His 2015 and 2016 seasons will have been better than any of Andrew Luck's seasons except one (Luck's 2014 season).  By ANY/A, here's how Luck's and Cousins' seasons would rank (excluding 2012 for Cousins since it was only 48 pass attempts, but it would rank #1 overall):

 

1. Luck 2014 - 7.28

2. Cousins 2015 - 7.14

3. Cousins 2016 - 7.14

4. Cousins 2014 - 6.77

5. Luck 2013 - 6.06

6. Luck 2012 - 5.66

7. Luck 2015 - 5.04

8. Cousins 2013 - 3.67 (includes 49 attempts during game in freezing rain in December; excluding that game brings him up to 4.78; excluding that game and including only starts, he had ANY/A of 6.28)

 

Now, you might say, "Okay, so what if Cousins gets Luck money.  What's the big deal between paying Cousins $20M per year and $25M per year?  It's a couple million bucks."

 

First, that analysis ignores guaranteed money.  The $20M per year contract would provide a ton more cap flexibility beyond just the $5M per year lower figure.  Second, in the NFL, "a couple million bucks" is a lot of money.  You're not going to get some top tier stud with that $5M, but you can get a few rotational starters for that money.  All but 8 non-Cousins Redskins have cap numbers below $5M for 2016.  4 of our 5 starters on the OL have cap hits of $5M or less.  All of our defensive linemen, TEs, and RBs have cap hits of $5M or less.  So while we're not talking about a Trent Williams sized difference, we're talking about a Chris Baker or a Junior Galette.  We're talking about the difference between getting just Cousins, or getting Cousins and one or two solid starters who can contribute significantly to our team.

[elkabong82]

Something that is consistently missing from your analysis of this situation is guaranteed money.  Talking about long term deals without talking about guaranteed money means that you've missed out on any analysis of the team's flexibility.  For example, you continue to compare Cousins to Flacco.  Yet one of the main reasons that the Ravens are stuck with Flacco's huge contract is that it contained over $50M in guarantees.  Cousins wouldn't even be commanding $50M in guarantees in 2016, yet Flacco got that in 2013.  That's world of difference - the cap has grown 20% since 2013, so $50M in 2013 dollars is more like $60M in 2016 dollars.

 

 

I just wanted to point that out because a lot of your analyses appear to make the assumption that whatever $/year that we agree to pay Cousins is a ball and chain that we're stuck with for the life of the contract. 

 

Flacco's contract had $44 million guaranteed, which was 66% of the contract, which was insane. I've already mentioned the average for normal contracts is 35-40% guaranteed, so guaranteed money is not missing, it is implied when I mention overall money for the sake of brevity.

 

I compare Cousins to Flacco in terms of performance. Flacco's poor performances have not made up for the deficits at other positions caused by his contract. We don't want that situation. A huge contract is a huge contract is not easy to get out of, and has very negative ramifications should the QB regress. If it didn't then we would have extended Kirk already because there would be minimal risk.

and you are refusing to acknowledge that there is a significant risk in not locking him up long term.  in my opinion the bigger risk is in not locking him up long term

 

again, it's all about guarantees, there is no $100 million gamble, there is no $100 million guaranteed contract, hell even von miller's contract was 70 million guaranteed

 

we are beyond flacco level screwed if kirk fails, and it wouldn't be because of the contract

 

What is the significant risk in not locking him up long-term, right now, that I haven't acknowledged?

 

I have comprehensively shown the range of increase for his contract is not horrible but manageable. I have stated that we can tag him again next year if an agreement isn't reached. What's the other risk? He's so mad now about the tag he won't ever sign with us? Yeah right.

 

I never said $100 million guaranteed, I was talking overall money which was made quite clear.

[MisterPinstripe]

And if Cousins ends up going off and being a franchise QB for a decade, do you really think they wouldnt be redoing his contract after 2 years to match his contribution? Either way if he goes off we will be paying him a massive contract.

 

This is all of course assuming we know that Cousins wasnt asking for more than 20 million.

[Hooper]

I think most people here don't understand that yet.

 

The other thing they don't understand is that draft picks are valuable because they let you pay players much less than their real value for the first four years.

 

70 million guaranteed to a non-QB astonishes me.  So much risk for a player who never even touches the ball.... good luck to the Broncos but I think they will regret this.

 

 

It's not crazy. Because the Broncos know what all the folks in the league know: with most players being cheap vets or in rookie deals and with the cap going up significantly every year, you can suddenly afford to splurge and not have it effect your roster like it did before. Teams still talk about cap hell and the such, but it's nonsense -- a collective ploy the league's owners to keep salaries down. 

 

Again, the Skins could make KC the highest paid QB in the league and still build the team they want. They know it. And that is why they are waiting to see him have another good season. All are they really risking is Snyder's cash.

[TheGreek1973]

exactly, guarantees are all that matter

And that is what we all -lock up Cousins now- have been saying.  Essentially you're giving him 19 million this year and if you tag him again 24 million next year.  The only way we don't tag him again or negotiate a much costlier long term deal is if he implodes totally.  Even if he plays slightly worse this season we still need to sign him or tag him.  What are we going to do let him go and bring in WHO?  So essentially we could have had him for 45 million guarantied and spread that for the first two years.  If he balls it out great.  If he doesn't he cost us very little in Cap hit year 3 if we want to cut him.  But that would be on the team making a decision.  And come on people you really are that freaking blind to what this guy's potential is?  What with the receivers and TEs we have?  

 

This for me was an opportunity lost by this management team to save money on the Cap year 2018 and beyond like GB is saving money now on Rodgers by locking him up for a long term.  Because believe me by 2018 and beyond 20 million per for a top 10 QB will be cheap.

 

BTW reports from camp today were glowing on KC and DJ hooking together several times, a couple of them for apparent long TDs.

[ncr2h]

What is the significant risk in not locking him up long-term, right now, that I haven't acknowledged?

 

I haven't seen anyone mention the risk that Cousins balls out this year and we want to tag him, and then a team that has more cap space than us and needs a QB signs him to an offer sheet front-loaded with guaranteed money that we can't match.  Sure, we'd get 2 first round picks, but at the cost of losing a fully developed top 5 QB that we could have locked in for top 10-12 QB money.

[elkabong82]

I haven't seen anyone mention the risk that Cousins balls out this year and we want to tag him, and then a team that has more cap space than us and needs a QB signs him to an offer sheet front-loaded with guaranteed money that we can't match.  Sure, we'd get 2 first round picks, but at the cost of losing a fully developed top 5 QB that we could have locked in for top 10-12 QB money.

 

1. You're assuming all Kirk asked for was top 10-12 money. He could have asked for a lot more.

 

2. Why wouldn't the Skins use the exclusive franchise tag 2 years in a row to keep teams from being able to bid?

[petedaddy]

And that is what we all -lock up Cousins now- have been saying.  Essentially you're giving him 19 million this year and if you tag him again 24 million next year.  The only way we don't tag him again or negotiate a much costlier long term deal is if he implodes totally.  Even if he plays slightly worse this season we still need to sign him or tag him.  What are we going to do let him go and bring in WHO?  So essentially we could have had him for 45 million guarantied and spread that for the first two years.  If he balls it out great.  If he doesn't he cost us very little in Cap hit year 3 if we want to cut him.  But that would be on the team making a decision.  And come on people you really are that freaking blind to what this guy's potential is?  What with the receivers and TEs we have?  

 

This for me was an opportunity lost by this management team to save money on the Cap year 2018 and beyond like GB is saving money now on Rodgers by locking him up for a long term.  Because believe me by 2018 and beyond 20 million per for a top 10 QB will be cheap.

 

BTW reports from camp today were glowing on KC and DJ hooking together several times, a couple of them for apparent long TDs.

 

exactly my sentiments

[Stefanskins]

I think that's a fair interpretation. I was certainly reading into it deeper, but that was by intent.

[Stefanskins]

exactly my sentiment

ok...I promise..I won't beat this dead horse anymore....but, I'll say this one last time...we have our franchise QB....for years to come....this is just an extenuating benefit seeing Cuz another year...they ALL KNOW what they've got...it is unfathomable & impossible for me to believe otherwise....this is more about being malleable with the rest of the 85% of cap space..

 

[Stefanskins]

that includes a lot of NFL talent evaluators, not just drunk-ass Redskins fans -- 

Hey...drunk-ass Redskins fans have feelings too!!

 

I'll just take my bag of keen insights and leave!!

 

[Stefanskins]

I think there was some stat that prior to 2014 no QB had won a SB after signing their 2nd big contract because it simply took too much cap and hurt the team too much.

wow really?...of course you are talking since free agency began...what bout Elway?...Eli in 2011 maybe?...Brees in 2007?...the Pats' Putz???...interesting though, Momma..interesting

[Momma There Goes That Man]

wow really?...of course you are talking since free agency began...what bout Elway?...Eli in 2011 maybe?...Brees in 2007?...the Pats' Putz???...interesting though, Momma..interesting

I think the stat actually follows the structure of rookie deal/2nd contract/big extension or massive 3rd contract with the latter being the one the stat refers to.

Brees SB was in 2009 and he was on a discounted contract that he signed in 06 after his shoulder injury. He hadn't become "Drew Brees" when he signed that contract.

The Pats have been competitive because Brady has typically played for less than his value so even though he is well paid he isn't maxing out a huge contract. Also, 3/4 SB wins came on his rookie deal or 2nd contract. Not the franchise crippling pay the elite QB money.

Pretty sure Eli was a little different in that he made like $30+ million in the uncapped year and only $9mil in their 2011 SB year.

I have no idea what Elway was making compared to the rest of the NFL and rosters at that point but in 97 and 98 he made around a combined $6mil while in 96 he made $8mil alone snd 93 made $10mil so it doesn't seem like he was a huge cap hit for them those last couple years.

Big Ben hasn't won a SB since his big extension, Wilson won his SB making like $500k, Rodgers hasn't won since he signed his mega deal, Flacco wasn't on a mega deal at the time etc.

That's why it's so important to find value by paying good and great players less than what they are worth and why we inexplicably missed a big opportunity here with Cousins.

1. You're assuming all Kirk asked for was top 10-12 money. He could have asked for a lot more.

2. Why wouldn't the Skins use the exclusive franchise tag 2 years in a row to keep teams from being able to bid?

If he already asked for a lot more than top 10-12 this offseason, how much more do you think he is going to ask for if he has another great year?

[TimmySmith]

ok...I promise..I won't beat this dead horse anymore....but, I'll say this one last time...we have our franchise QB....for years to come....this is just an extenuating benefit seeing Cuz another year...they ALL KNOW what they've got...it is unfathomable & impossible for me to believe otherwise....this is more about being malleable with the rest of the 85% of cap space..

 

While I agree 100%, if Cousins is as good as you (and me) think he is there could be trouble down the road. I will never forget seeing Trent Green skip town, and it was a cautionary tale. The Skins really have missed the boat in signing Cousins, which should have happened BEFORE last season (yet another result of the RG3 debacle) and now they will be a face in the crowd at next off seasons auction.  In which case they franchise him again. Cousins being a Skin in 2018 is less than 50/50 IMO.

[Stefanskins]

While I agree 100%, if Cousins is as good as you (and me) think he is there could be trouble down the road. I will never forget seeing Trent Green skip town, and it was a cautionary tale. The Skins really have missed the boat in signing Cousins, which should have happened BEFORE last season (yet another result of the RG3 debacle) and now they will be a face in the crowd at next off seasons auction.  In which case they franchise him again. Cousins being a Skin in 2018 is less than 50/50 IMO.

Oh God I hope its more than 50/50...my heart can't take another twenty five years of sub par to mediocre QB'n....

[Califan007 The Constipated]

The Skins really have missed the boat in signing Cousins, which should have happened BEFORE last season (yet another result of the RG3 debacle)

I'm not sure why anyone, anywhere, thinks Cousins would have signed an extension with the Redskins before last season. There's so little logic to that train of thought.

Cousins being a Skin in 2018 is less than 50/50 IMO.

In case anyone wonders why I wrote my joking post earlier lol...

[TimmySmith]

I'm not sure why anyone, anywhere, thinks Cousins would have signed an extension with the Redskins before last season. There's so little logic to that train of thought.

In case anyone wonders why I wrote my joking post earlier lol...

After years of your RG3 bent, I am little concerned with your logic.

 

Trotting out a QB, who you hope is your future, with no real contract extension was foolish, when he could have been extended for peanuts, and then released if he failed.  Instead the Skins are behind the 8 ball and the bidding will be 9 figures.

[Conn]

Nobody on either side would have offered or signed a contract before last season. He had been a spotty backup QB who **** his pants when given a real chance at an audition. Wouldn't have made sense for us or him.