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2015 NFL Comprehensive Draft Database


Dukes and Skins

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Agreed. And I think the last sentence is true for any team.

It certainly be nice if the BPA at our pick was a surefire day one mauler of an offensive lineman. But if that's not the hand we're dealt, then forcing the pick with a reach won't make it happen either.

"Reach" is pretty subjective though. Talking heads like to think they're experts on who belongs where in thr draft order, and for the first ten picks or so the general consensus is correct.

but after that, teams have their own boards and alot of guys who the "experts" say is a reach go much earlier than they project.. and vice versa, the fan faves go much later.

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Eh, looks more intimidating than he is. I'm not saying he looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane, I just don't think he makes the impact he should as often as he should.

I think I agree with you. His production is ok. He is making plays behind the LoS at a respectable clip, and combined with his physical attributes, I think you get a solid late first or second round prospect. But he's being talked about substantially earlier than that. That's too much projecting potential for my taste. I don't think he represents good value in the top 25 picks. Especially since there are a lot of DEs and OLBs that are clearly better than him this year.

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Bruce Allen is (probably accurately) not considered much of a personnel guy. But I actually think our last three draft and free agent classes have been excellent. Whoever has been running our drafts, they should keep their jobs.

2012 they killed it with RGIII, Keenan Robinson, and Alfred Morris. Those are three of our best players already, and the guys who establish the identity of our team.

2013 they killed it with the Amerson and Reed picks. Two of our most promising playmakers, two of our guys with the highest upside.

2014 they killed it with the Breeland pick, who already is our best DB and can probably be our best defensive player pretty soon.

And I also think Trent Murphy can be a stud. I don't think it'll be a fast start for him, but I think he'll become a mainstay by the end of next season.

Plus I still have high hopes for Morgan Moses and Ryan Grant.

I think that a draft class that nets you two or three players as good as Amerson/Reed/Breeland, ESPECIALLY outside the first round, is a success. I wish we'd had first rounders those years, I would have liked to see who we'd have picked.

I also think good drafting is what has led to us not really having big needs at high draftpick/dollar positions: QB, LT, CB, OLB. Having young mainstays at those positions gives us roster flexibility moving forward.

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"Reach" is pretty subjective though. Talking heads like to think they're experts on who belongs where in thr draft order, and for the first ten picks or so the general consensus is correct.

but after that, teams have their own boards and alot of guys who the "experts" say is a reach go much earlier than they project.. and vice versa, the fan faves go much later.

Sure, but it's my experience that, far more often than not, consensus reaches on draft day work out poorly for the teams that make them. And it's like picking stocks, you maximize your total value by buying low. You can reach and still get good players. But you'd get more good players in the end if you pick a guy in the round everyone else has him graded and spend your higher draft picks on other guys.

Case in point Bashaud Breeland. He's clearly a second round talent at worst in hindsight. On draft day he was worth lower than that. Because of that, we got him in the fourth, representing huge value, and allowing us to draft Murphy/Long/Moses too. It's not just about projecting how good a player is going to be, it's also figuring out how the league values him.

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The Breeland pick is looking great, I often wonder how much of the draft is luck though. It's not like we saw Breeland as a 2nd round talent, otherwise we would have snatched him in the 3rd and considered it value.

Same with how people claim Seattle fo to be geniuses for getting Sherman in the 5th. More likely the other corners/players they wanted were gone so they picked the guy who they probably had ranked in the early to mid 100s. It's not like they foresaw the best corner in the league. If you think a player is so great, you don't risk betting against other teams having seen the same thing.

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So ... I didn't watch the game, had to listen. BUT, it sounds like there's a couple issues here that prevented us from winning ...

 

1. Pass Rush wasn't there yesterday. Sounded like, at least from the Cooley/Sonny/Larry call that there were a lot of guys open and the blitzes weren't getting in as much as they did against Dallas. So that's either a lapse by our CBs or a safety issue. Still, like our CB situation, and think we could certainly get more pressure along the 3-man DL front. This points to a need for a push. Draft a NT or DE that can make an impact and create a truly studly 3-man 2-deep rotation. Cofield and Bowen can be cut due to age, healthy and salary. Re-sign Jenkins. Have Jenkins, Baker, Hatcher, Kearse as guys coming back. Sign a NT or DE and draft a NT or DE high.

 

2. Pass Protection. Sounded like Compton played pretty well. Was Chester a turnstile again? It also sounds like Lichtensteiger continued his stellar play. Trent had a bad game but those won't happen often. Griff sounded like he may have held the ball too long at times, but I just hope that is correctable as he continues to get snaps.

 

So what that comes down to ... a revised off-season wish list after the high of Dallas and low of Minnesota ...

 

Musts:

1. FS

2. NT

3. DE

 

TBD:

4. Strong Safety - certainly a need, but saw Phil Thomas was getting some time on teams. Hopefully he can prove healthy and we can see if he's a long-term solution for us there.

5. Right Guard - Chester has to go ... but maybe Long is his replacement ... if so, it's just a matter of getting the young guys in there

6. Right Tackle - see above ... Compton sounded like he played well ... if not we have Moses

7. Corner - grab a depth guy or vet free agent. OR if you want to absolutely lock the position down, sign a top-end FA

 

Draft depends on FA ... but I would like to use our FA funds on a young safety ... a young play-making DE or Nose ... and some depth at LB

 

If those are addressed, then I would draft either a FS or SS opposite whoever we sign in FA ... draft a NT or DE, opposite of what we address in FA ... draft a project OLB to play behind Kerrigan, Murphy and maybe Brown ... and draft some OL depth ... either another OG or possibly a C to spell Lichtensteiger.

 

For me, it really changes every week. But in the end I think it comes down to pass-rush and the safety position.

 

If you stick with the 3-4 defense ... I have to imagine there are two draft picks or FA acquisitions that could absolutely impact the defense from top to bottom. A play-making, penetrating, block eating NT and a FS. If you can address the other S spot in FA great. But stud NTs and FS are hard to come by ... if we can use our 1st and 2nd on a NT and FS .... in any order, I think that absolutely transforms our defense ... and we've seen that we have the talent to make it work on Offense ... or at least enough to win games. 

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Musts:

1. FS

2. NT

3. DE

 

Draft depends on FA ... but I would like to use our FA funds on a young safety ... a young play-making DE or Nose ... and some depth at LB

 

If those are addressed, then I would draft either a FS or SS opposite whoever we sign in FA ... draft a NT or DE, opposite of what we address in FA ... draft a project OLB to play behind Kerrigan, Murphy and maybe Brown ... and draft some OL depth ... either another OG or possibly a C to spell Lichtensteiger.

 

I'm just going to say, there are very few good safeties in the league.  There are a lot of decent ones.  Last years Free Agent safety class was supposed to be deep and talented, they were certainly paid as if it was.  Yet a lot of safeties to switch teams have disappointed.

 

Right now, I feel like Safety is the new RB position in the draft.  You can draft a decent safety after the 1st round with the same bust rate as a high profile safety, and often the same level of contribution on the field.

 

One of the problems that has plagued our pass defense, is a safeties inability to come down near the line and play in man coverage.  We've seen both Meriweather and Clark get burned by WR's or TE's.  We want to blitz and show different looks, disguising who is blitzing.  We can't do that if the safeties can't cover.

 

I'm not sure how many safeties in college are even used in a similar fashion to how NFL teams use them.  Seems like we'd be mostly guessing if we draft a safety high.

 

I think our best bet, is to just draft a tough and physical corner, and convert him to safety.  At least that way we know we can blitz the way we want, since he can show blitz then back off into coverage.  And tough/physical implies willingness against the run.  This is something our fanbase has talked about a lot (especially with Hall), but we've only tried it as a team once (with Dejon Gomes).  Yet when you look at other teams, they've got guys who have made the transition and have played well.  Rolle, Mathieu, Byrd, McCourty, Glover Quin, Malcolm Jenkins (although now overpaid in Philly).  That's all I can think of now, but that amounts to 20% of the league's starting Free Safeties, who either played as a corner in college and then converted upon being drafted, or played for a year or two at corner in the pro's before being converted.

 

Check this link out for one reason our defense struggled against the Vikings:

http://hail22.com/2014/11/02/redskins-lose-29-26-vikings-10-thoughts-observations/

 

 

7. The Redskins have to stop lining up their outside linebackers over slot receivers. It is killing them in the run game. They line up the linebacker well outside the box, but still give him the assignment of backside contain. That’s an extremely tough assignment to get all the way over and catch up to the play. The offense just needs to wash out the front side defenders and the running back can sprint up the middle for a free five yards before either Ryan Kerrigan or Trent Murphy can catch up. It’s been happening all season, and it happened at times last year too. Washington needs to bring down their safety and put him over the slot receiver, or play more man and allow the corner to follow the receiver to the other side.

 

Right now none of our safeties can do that.  And not many safeties in college can do that either, no matter the projected round.

 

If a safety isn't capable of coming down near the line and going into Man coverage, he shouldn't be drafted in the 1st round.  Otherwise he's schematically limited, and we're stuck lining Kerrigan, Orakpo, and Murphy over somebody in the slot.  Then we either get gashed in the run game, or have our OLB's exposed in coverage when they could be rushing the passer.

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A lot of the sacks were on griffin, though he had pressure up the gut constantly. We need new guards in the worst kind of way. I wouldn't even care if we went overboard by signing iupati and then drafted cann in the 1st or Daryl Williams in the 2nd.

On defense the middle of the field for us is a mess and this was against a pretty bad MN o line. Having a pass rush specialist would be nice, a guy who really gets off the edge. That seems to be a 1st round priority for a lot of teams, definitely wouldn't mind Beasley if it meant we could actually pressure qbs. Murphy looked solid in many aspects but outside rushes were pushed waaaay outside.

Maybe oakman wouldn't be a bad choice to have a penetrating 5 tech who can bring pressure, but he might be lacking in run defense.

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personally i dont think moses has the mindset to be a rt. its a totally different possition than lt. you need to dominate and have a heavy mean streak. and with that being said what does everyone think of  ot t.j. clemmings from pit. rsr 6-5, 305lbs ??

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I feel that...unless we're in the middle 1st, & RT is BPA, then drafting a RT is admitting a wasted pick, & is essentially taking 1 step backwards. I feel if we have 4 guys available at 4 positions of need this year & it goes down something like this (according to our draft board): OG -92, SAF - 92, DT/5 tech DE - 92, RT - 95....in this scenario, i still draft 1 of the other 3. Why? Because the drop off is not so considerable to the point where we need to overlook our more glaring weaknesses. Now...mid 1st...fine...unless Colins is still available. In which case i feel he would be a bargain.

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I think it all depends on what style of defense we run. 

 

That's why I don't see the point of keeping Haslett. Why not bring in a different guy who runs the 3-4 just for a better evaluation of the players. If it's clear what we have isn't working, we abandon it next year. If results improve, we maintain what we have, concentrate on weak links like a NT. Why draft a guy like Shelton if we aren't going to run the 3-4?

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If we draft anything other than a stud offensive lineman (regardless of position) that we can plug at either LG, RG or RT in the 1st round i'm going to blow a fuse.

 

We all know our QB holds the ball a little longer than we would like so lets get some lineman who will pass protect with the best of them and allow RGIII's flaw to hold on to the ball a second longer be nullfied by great pass blockers. 

 

I see people clamoring for Landon Collins the safety or a pass rusher which makes me ask what does it matter if our QB is going to be on his butt with JAG (just another guy) guys like Chris Chester, Tyler Polumbus, Lauvao, Tom Compton, Morgan Moses, Laribeis?

 

Look at dallas, they're the same team the only difference is they have one of the top 5 offensive line unites in the NFL and now they're winning. 

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If we draft anything other than a stud offensive lineman (regardless of position) that we can plug at either LG, RG or RT in the 1st round i'm going to blow a fuse.

 

We all know our QB holds the ball a little longer than we would like so lets get some lineman who will pass protect with the best of them and allow RGIII's flaw to hold on to the ball a second longer be nullfied by great pass blockers. 

 

I see people clamoring for Landon Collins the safety or a pass rusher which makes me ask what does it matter if our QB is going to be on his butt with JAG (just another guy) guys like Chris Chester, Tyler Polumbus, Lauvao, Tom Compton, Morgan Moses, Laribeis?

 

Look at dallas, they're the same team the only difference is they have one of the top 5 offensive line unites in the NFL and now they're winning. 

 

Imagine if he did have a good offensive line. With his ability to extend plays, and the receivers we have, his arm...I would not be upset if we drafted 3 OL with the first three picks...

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Imagine if he did have a good offensive line. With his ability to extend plays, and the receivers we have, his arm...I would not be upset if we drafted 3 OL with the first three picks...

 

Exactly, every year we put off drafting OL in the 1st round because it's not a sexy pick and every year we're last in the NFCeast. Dallas the past 3 of 4 years has gone offensive lineman, everyone was amused at the Tyron Smith pick and felt it was a reach, everyone laughed at the Travis Frederick pick because they passed on other talent and then everyone was like "OMG I finally see what dallas is doing" when they drafted Zach Martin.

 

Demarco Murray who is an above average back has been destroying the league because of that offensive line and Tony Romo has actually had a clean pocket because of that offensive line. Our game against them was the first time I saw romo actually get rushed it was fascinating to watch.

 

We need to take a step back and forget the sexy Mariotta or Landon collins or (insert flashy player) and get some lineman. It pisses me off because we lost our freaking identity, we're the freaking HOGS, we smash people in the mouth we control the offensive line and we lost that identity. Lets go back to freaking redskins football get some elite lineman and dominate the offensive line like we use to do, we had the best offensive lineman unit in NFL history and that is what redskins football is known for yet we have guys like Chris Chester, Lauvao, and Polumbus on our offensive line? I'm disgusted!

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I probably will only peek my head in from time to time, but it seems like targets 1-3 (in no particular order) should be S, 3-4 DE, and OG.

 

Initially it doesn't look like there are any top tier talents at OG, but then there's something of a drop off.  AJ Cann can probably start, but aside from him, I'm not sure.

 

Not sure who's out there at safety aside from Landon Collins.  Similar for 3-4 DEs.

 

 

From a strategy perspective, I'd probably try and land Leonard Williams, and if he's gone (quite possible unless we lose just about everything the rest of the year), maybe trade back for Cann.  A lot of the guys who fit the 3-4 DE mold are later 1sts or 2nd rounders.

 

I guess, RIGHT NOW (stuff changes), for us in the 1st, it's Cann, Collins, or Williams, or bust.  I dunno, maybe Mike Bennett sneaks in there?

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Landon Collins is a strong safety. I like Cody Prewitt just as much big time hitter.

Gerod Holliman might end up top FS but is only a RS sophmore.

Still like Anthony Harris as a FS in the 3rd rd area.

DHall should try that transition if they bring him back he will have lost a step with injury and father time.

We have real needs our guards and Te's get pushed back continually in run game. Our passrush is nonexistent. Need another ilb if Keenan goes down were screwed. We are likely to have a top 10 pick im looking at stud linemen on both sides of ball if thats the case. Maybe a guy at tackle who can also be a stud guard like Scherff.

Another major issue is a blocking back on 3rd downs Helu gets beat repeatedly

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Landon Collins is a strong safety. I like Cody Prewitt just as much big time hitter.

Gerod Holliman might end up top FS but is only a RS sophmore.

Still like Anthony Harris as a FS in the 3rd rd area.

DHall should try that transition if they bring him back he will have lost a step with injury and father time.

We have real needs our guards and Te's get pushed back continually in run game. Our passrush is nonexistent. Need another ilb if Keenan goes down were screwed. We are likely to have a top 10 pick im looking at stud linemen on both sides of ball if thats the case. Maybe a guy at tackle who can also be a stud guard like Scherff.

Another major issue is a blocking back on 3rd downs Helu gets beat repeatedly

Yeah, I think a lot of these top rated tackles are guards at the next level, and I'm not sure if cann would actually be better than them. By the same token I probably wouldn't want to go guard in the top 10 and we could likely find a great prospect there at the top of the 2nd. O line is also a position we could spend big on in fa, as they don't seem to bust at a high rate compared to other fa. Tight ends should be avoided in this class, just a bad year for them. I was all for asf last year, so I'm not against it in principle, but at best I'm going for a late round guy who can block.

I'm easing up on the idea of oakman as a de. I think he'd be a liability against the run but he's quick for a de and can help bolster the pass rush. If our plan is to move forward with Murphy at olb then we don't have top tier speed at the position, in fact, we may have one of the least athletic olb duos. They do other things well though and we can get penetration from other positions (especially since our olb drop in to coverage so much). Danny Shelton is also high on my board, in my eyes he's the most polished nt prospect since wilfork. I like baker, but he'd probably be best in a rotation, as he's only sitting at about 52% of snaps right now.

I like prewitt, and I think I'd rather have him in the 2nd over Collins in the 1st. I just don't think Collins will be an elite safety, definitely not as an fs, and just getting a good safety is not worth a top 10 pick.

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Want to make this clear: I'm not advocating anything of the sort.

 

However, I'm beginning to wonder if quarterback is becoming something that Washington may decide to consider in the first round of the draft. If Griffin struggles the remainder of this year (I don't think he will), but if he does, that opens up the possibility of neither he nor Cousins being on the roster next season. The Redskins could very well target a QB, especially if we continue this pace. Two teams currently drafting ahead of us are Jacksonville and Oakland, neither of which will go QB next year.

 

I'm throwing it out there, despite how much I hate the idea, that this is a possibility if Griffin doesn't finish strong.

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Want to make this clear: I'm not advocating anything of the sort.

....

One part of me is punching the other part of me, but I understand what you're saying.

 

I think the tipping point will be another major injury.  If, and I do not want this to happen at all, if Griffin were to sustain a major injury between now and the draft*, like another ACL tear, or something that would not only sideline him for months, but also kill offseason development and potentially lower his maximum physical ability, then looking at QB would make some sense in the first.

 

If Griffin plays like he did Sunday for the rest of the year, that won't be necessary.  He'd have to play far, far worse for us to pick a QB with a healthy Griffin on the roster.

 

If such a dark future were to come to pass, I'd probably say Marcus Mariota or bust.  Winston is Newton-esque, but I don't like his off the field issues, and his accuracy is a tad suspect.  I could get behind Winston in some contrived situations (though I would want to learn more about Connor Cook first) such as Griffin winning us 5 or 6 straight and then sustaining a career ending injury (likely putting us out of Mariota range), but he's definitely 2nd on my list.

 

 

*I don't place the end as the end of the season, as DHall has shown that freak injuries are now following us home...

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RE: Breeland

The draft is about talent evaluation. A team gains by paying less for a good prospect. I don't understand the logic when people say "if they knew player X was gonna be this good they would have taken them earlier". I reject that. If you think the rest of the league is wrong in their evaluation of a prospect you gain value by taking the player you rate highly as late as you can get them. Breeland isn't luck hes an example of good drafting.

PS-drafting a QB early is nuts

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