2015 NFL Comprehensive Draft Database

[KDawg]

PS-drafting a QB early is nuts

 

Good thing I said I wasn't advocating that move, but rather wondering if that's something the 'Skins could consider then, huh?

[nemocystem]

Since the Jax game i've been wondering the same thing. I mean...you have 2 high end QB's coming out, & if Griffin gets hurt again, it absolutely has to eat at you to think of who you could be passing up on.

I would still want to work on the other aforementioned positions of need...but it absolutely has to be a consideration if MM or Winston are sitting in our lap. Especially if RGIII goes down again.

That said...trade back perhaps?

[Laron Burgundy]

RE: Breeland

The draft is about talent evaluation. A team gains by paying less for a good prospect. I don't understand the logic when people say "if they knew player X was gonna be this good they would have taken them earlier". I reject that. If you think the rest of the league is wrong in their evaluation of a prospect you gain value by taking the player you rate highly as late as you can get them. Breeland isn't luck hes an example of good drafting.

PS-drafting a QB early is nuts

You assume we have a good idea of what the other 31 teams think of a prospect, and I just don't think that's anywhere close to accurate. You can have an idea, as in what teams sent scouts to which games, but with a program like Clemson you have no idea exactly who they are looking at. That information is so closely guarded that it's unreasonable to think we're aware what every other team thinks.

Breeland, afterall, was rated as a 3rd rounder by some scouts, so it's not like we went against the consensus to pick him in the 4th. If he was a consensus 5th or even 4th rounder, then yeah, picking him up as late as possible would be a stroke of genius. Not saying it's all luck, but there's definitely a certain amount involved.

[Going Commando]

Griffin isn't going to forget how to play football between now and the end of the year. If he suffers a career ending injury, then you go QB. But I see no other reason to do so. None of these QB prospects are even close to him in quality IMO. Of the top ones, I guess I like Winston the best. He's the leader that's galvanized FSU into an elite team. But every time I've watched FSU the past two years, I find myself noticing that it's a bunch of other awesome FSU players making the plays, not Winston. It's not like watching RGIII at Baylor (or here in D.C. for that matter). And Mariotta just strikes me as a poor man's RGIII whose also playing on a stacked team.

[darrelgreenie]

You assume we have a good idea of what the other 31 teams think of a prospect, and I just don't think that's anywhere close to accurate...

They have some idea.

Heck some teams use the same scouting services.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Want to make this clear: I'm not advocating anything of the sort.

 

However, I'm beginning to wonder if quarterback is becoming something that Washington may decide to consider in the first round of the draft. If Griffin struggles the remainder of this year (I don't think he will), but if he does, that opens up the possibility of neither he nor Cousins being on the roster next season. The Redskins could very well target a QB, especially if we continue this pace. Two teams currently drafting ahead of us are Jacksonville and Oakland, neither of which will go QB next year.

 

I'm throwing it out there, despite how much I hate the idea, that this is a possibility if Griffin doesn't finish strong.

There's no way to know Oakland wouldn't go QB with the number 1 pick. I would almost bet they do, even though Carr's looked decent.

 

I doubt we would go QB early unless Griffin gets hurt again. I would only consider it if we could somehow trade up cheaply for Mariota. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

RE: Breeland

The draft is about talent evaluation. A team gains by paying less for a good prospect. I don't understand the logic when people say "if they knew player X was gonna be this good they would have taken them earlier". I reject that. If you think the rest of the league is wrong in their evaluation of a prospect you gain value by taking the player you rate highly as late as you can get them. Breeland isn't luck hes an example of good drafting.

 

That's true to an extent. In the case of Breeland, certainly they seemed to be taking him around where you could expect to get him.

 

However, the logic you quoted has some truth to it in some cases. For example, if you think Tom Brady has any chance to be anything close to what he's become you don't wait until the 6th round to take him. There are several stories of other teams that considered taking him, for example it's been well reported that Mike Riley was begging Beathard to take him in San Diego.

[darrelgreenie]

Kinda.

I don't think teams view the difference between prospects the way we do. They know the difference between the 1st ranked x and the 20th ranked x really isn't that great. But the players are ranked based on attributes that predict success from tangibles and intangibles. I don't think teams view the 1st ranked as a HOF and the 20th as not worthwhile. They draft players they like and see which ones develop. The Patriots liked Brady but that doesn't mean then should pay more for him then the market dictates.

Lets look at Tony Romo an UDFA. Teams didnt view him as talentless on the contrary he was a sought after undrafted FA. But does that mean the teams that wanted should have drafted him in round 3? It's a risk but you try to get the player you want as late as you can get them based on where they think other teams value them. Bill Walsh talks about sweating bullets over waiting until round 3 to draft Joe Montana whom he thought was the best QB in the draft.

[burgundyrush]

It's wait and see on Landon right now. I think it depends on who we hire as our DC. If we for some reason keep Haslett, promote Raheem, or someone else from within then it's not going to matter what defensive player we draft since we will most likely stink and misuse that new talent.

With a legit DC I think Landon is a no brainer. If he is not there I fear we go with another pass rusher while ignoring the offensive line and safety positions.

[Laron Burgundy]

Bitonio, now the fifth-ranked guard in football by the analytic site Pro Football Focus. He has yet to give up a single sack, and has played every offensive snap for the Browns this season.

 

From http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000423227/article/how-joel-bitonio-helps-to-symbolize-the-browns-rise

 

Kinda makes me mad.  I'd rather have Bitonio and Jackson than Murphy and Long.  Yet again trading down comes back to haunt us.

[PartyPosse]

Since the Jax game i've been wondering the same thing. I mean...you have 2 high end QB's coming out, & if Griffin gets hurt again, it absolutely has to eat at you to think of who you could be passing up on.

I would still want to work on the other aforementioned positions of need...but it absolutely has to be a consideration if MM or Winston are sitting in our lap. Especially if RGIII goes down again.

That said...trade back perhaps?

There were 2 high end QBs coming out in 2012 and we got one. Now the fan base can't wait to get rid of him.

Be careful what you wish for.

[DogofWar1]

There were 2 high end QBs coming out in 2012 and we got one. Now the fan base can't wait to get rid of him.

Be careful what you wish for.

 

*insert jab at fanbase*

 

I sincerely hope we don't have to go over the QB debate Wars again, where we clash over whether to pick one in the mid rounds and develop while building lines or to pick one early.  Lots of good men were lost on both sides in that war...

 

But in all seriousness, people got spoiled by 2012.  In how many drafts do you see potentially 5 starting QBs picked, with 2 of them in the 3rd round?  It's pretty much unheard of, and 2012 could potentially be remembered up there with '83 and '04.

 

1 has a SB

4 have been to the playoffs

4 have at least 1 Pro-Bowl

 

Generally speaking, if you're looking for a QB, you've got to pick early or completely accept that in all likelihood you will be very, very disappointed.  It's why if we were looking at QB in some dark alternate future (where Superman landed in the USSR, I presume), I'd prefer we go hard for Mariota than try and find the Wilson or Foles of that draft.

[Laron Burgundy]

*insert jab at fanbase*

 

I sincerely hope we don't have to go over the QB debate Wars again, where we clash over whether to pick one in the mid rounds and develop while building lines or to pick one early.  Lots of good men were lost on both sides in that war...

 

But in all seriousness, people got spoiled by 2012.  In how many drafts do you see potentially 5 starting QBs picked, with 2 of them in the 3rd round?  It's pretty much unheard of, and 2012 could potentially be remembered up there with '83 and '04.

 

1 has a SB

4 have been to the playoffs

4 have at least 1 Pro-Bowl

 

Generally speaking, if you're looking for a QB, you've got to pick early or completely accept that in all likelihood you will be very, very disappointed.  It's why if we were looking at QB in some dark alternate future (where Superman landed in the USSR, I presume), I'd prefer we go hard for Mariota than try and find the Wilson or Foles of that draft.

 

I agree with the sentiment in that dark future, but if Jason Campbell, Vince Young and Mark Sanchez got 4-5 years I think Griff should get at least that.  He's shown a lot more promise than those guys did.  This fanbase could really use some patience.

[DogofWar1]

I agree with the sentiment in that dark future, but if Jason Campbell, Vince Young and Mark Sanchez got 4-5 years I think Griff should get at least that.  He's shown a lot more promise than those guys did.  This fanbase could really use some patience.

Oh, I agree, Griffin should get at least until the end of his rookie deal, I've been preaching that in other threads.  Heck, I used the Campbell analogy too.

 

The situation I meant was basically this (from something I posted earlier):

I think the tipping point will be another major injury.  If, and I do not want this to happen at all, if Griffin were to sustain a major injury between now and the draft*, like another ACL tear, or something that would not only sideline him for months, but also kill offseason development and potentially lower his maximum physical ability, then looking at QB would make some sense in the first.

__________________

 

Barring something at least that bad, we stick to the "plan" and draft S, DL, or OG.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Kinda.

I don't think teams view the difference between prospects the way we do. They know the difference between the 1st ranked x and the 20th ranked x really isn't that great. But the players are ranked based on attributes that predict success from tangibles and intangibles. I don't think teams view the 1st ranked as a HOF and the 20th as not worthwhile. They draft players they like and see which ones develop. The Patriots liked Brady but that doesn't mean then should pay more for him then the market dictates.

Lets look at Tony romoSUCKS an UDFA. Teams didnt view him as talentless on the contrary he was a sought after undrafted FA. But does that mean the teams that wanted should have drafted him in round 3? It's a risk but you try to get the player you want as late as you can get them based on where they think other teams value them. Bill Walsh talks about sweating bullets over waiting until round 3 to draft Joe Montana whom he thought was the best QB in the draft.

Point being, the Pats deserve credit for ultimately deciding on Brady over Tim Rattay but not some otherworldly genius level foresight about what they thought they were getting.

 

But I do think smart draft teams  sometimes think they are getting a better player in the 4th round than the 3rd round and so on. You might really like a prospect but be pretty confident you can get them a round later so you gamble on it. You're gonna lose that gamble from time to time but if you're right more often that not you'll end up with a lot more value from your draft.

[PartyPosse]

The thing with RG3 is when healthy he hasn't been anything close to a disaster like some of the other busts people compare him to. If he was putting up numbers like Leaf or Akili Smith then I would be ready to move on, but the numbers are damn good. 91.8 QBR, a 37-18 TD/INT ratio, both numbers better than Andrew Luck (86.2, 72-36).

 

But this isn't about quarterback. 

 

I will say this. The team has only drafted 2 OL in the first 2 rounds of the draft in the past 14 years and both turned out to be as good as advertised (Samuels and Trent). For some reason the FO seems to think quality blue-collar "dirty-work" players in the trenches grow on trees. I would have NO problem spending both their first and their second on the O-line.

[nemocystem]

There were 2 high end QBs coming out in 2012 and we got one. Now the fan base can't wait to get rid of him.

Be careful what you wish for.

Don't get me wrong...go back over this & various other threads & you'll know that i believe very adamantly that RGIII deserves nothing more than to finish out this contract & hopefully we are smart & go after the more astute additions to help this team along.

That said...if he goes down with another injury to a new part of his body, it makes that decision exponentially more difficult than it stands today.

Just for today; however, i don't even flinch at the thought of drafting DE/DT, SAF, OG. QB is currently the furthest consideration in my mind. Just something to posit in the interim, & kind of the 800lb gorilla, if you will.

[darrelgreenie]

Point being, the Pats deserve credit for ultimately deciding on Brady over Tim Rattay but not some otherworldly genius level foresight about what they thought they were getting.

 

But I do think smart draft teams  sometimes think they are getting a better player in the 4th round than the 3rd round and so on. You might really like a prospect but be pretty confident you can get them a round later so you gamble on it. You're gonna lose that gamble from time to time but if you're right more often that not you'll end up with a lot more value from your draft.

We basically agree I think.

 

But otherworldy genius level foresight is your hang-up not mine. Nor do I think draft picks are made based on prediction based evaluation.

For me its not "i think Brady will become X therefore I want to draft him" its "i would like a chance to develop Brady and this is where I think we can get him".

 

Where do we think prospect X projects in the league scouting consensus vs where prospect X ranks in our team evaluation.

[KDawg]

There were 2 high end QBs coming out in 2012 and we got one. Now the fan base can't wait to get rid of him.

Be careful what you wish for.

 

I don't think anyone here is wishing for that to happen. This is where actually reading what is said comes into play.

[darrelgreenie]

**I have not started watch the draft breakdown cut-ups of any players yet; so I am using cbs/nfldraftscout for my rankings/projections.**

 

Round 1:

 

Cedric Ogbuehi OT

Shawn Oakman DL

Amari Cooper WR

Trade Down

 

Round 2:

 

Danny Shelton DL

AJ Cann    OG

Ty Sambrailo OT

Arik Armstead DL

Spencer Drango OT

Derron Smith FS

Arie Kouandijo OG

 

Round 3:

 

Cody Prewitt FS

Tre Jackson OG

Kurtis Drummond FS

Jaquiski Tartt SS

 

Round 4 and later:

 

Durrell Eskridge FS

Leon Orr DL

Jordan Richards SS

Laken Tomlinson OG

Travis Raciti DL

[Laron Burgundy]

Shelton likely goes in the top half of the first and tre Jackson in the second. Rankings are all over the place right now though. Have seen ogbuehi rated anywhere from top 10 to 2nd round. For my money he's got the best feet in the class by far, but I haven't gotten to watch the games where he struggled yet.

[DogofWar1]

I'm wondering if La'el Collins might be a guy to watch.

 

Pegged as an OT, but ESPN puts him as an RG/RT tweener.  Probably available right around 10ish, where, assuming we don't fall totally flat, we're likely to pick.  Apparently has some issues with waist bending, but if we slide him inside and develop him should be fine.  Has good arm length and big hands.

 

I'm starting to think our standard strategy for the line should be to draft tweeners and slide them inside, where we can usually hide some of the weaknesses they'd exhibit outside.

 

Also, Collins runs a 5.05, so some downfield blocking help might be there.

[Laron Burgundy]

I'm wondering if La'el Collins might be a guy to watch.

Pegged as an OT, but ESPN puts him as an RG/RT tweener. Probably available right around 10ish, where, assuming we don't fall totally flat, we're likely to pick. Apparently has some issues with waist bending, but if we slide him inside and develop him should be fine. Has good arm length and big hands.

I'm starting to think our standard strategy for the line should be to draft tweeners and slide them inside, where we can usually hide some of the weaknesses they'd exhibit outside.

Also, Collins runs a 5.05, so some downfield blocking help might be there.

He's got one of the ugliest backpedals I've ever seen. I'd be more interested in taking one of the Oklahoma tackles or the Florida state guards in a later round, either that or maybe take scherff if I thought we could get him to play to the whistle. Some people say this is a great class for ot but I'm not really convinced.

[Taco Bell]

If a guy like Scherff, unless he becomes a bust not seen before by mankind, is drafted by us, he is going to be a starter and upgrade immediately at least one of the RG, LG, or RT spots.  If Long or Moses or Leribeus or Beavis or Butthead "develop" well that's just fantastic, lets actually draft a player that is good enough that he just walks in and starts at a position that we are clearly horrendous at and have neglected annually for once.  

 

If we don't draft him, I'll trust whatever OT player is drafted.  I'm not saying Scherff is my favorite, I don't know **** about any of these guys, all I know is he is the one that seems to be able to play T or G unlike the Cedric or Peat players, or at least a handful of scouting reports say.  I just know the general position that seems obvious to me to upgrade in the draft is OL. 

 

I really don't think drafting Landon Collins or any pass rusher is going to improve this team as much as a lineman would, at any of the spots.  If RG3 is staying our QB we need a better line, oh wait, we need a better line anyway. I know there are other rounds. But instead of getting a guy we "hope" is going to be good on the line, let's get a guy that Trent actually says, "OK, I don't have to block 7 guys anymore."  He's not a ****ing octopus. I also want an additional OL drafted in either the 2nd or 3rd, preferably 2nd, because if we keep our offense on the field, that keeps our defense off the field, and fresher 11 guys on D thanks to a better ball controlling O could almost equate to just having a theoretical "good" safety or "stud" pass rusher on the team.  And that's without the better O. Offense is becoming more and more important with each passing year.  

 

It's the more sustainable side, because QBs last longer and longer now with the rules changing, so if both have horrendous needs, Offense is better if my brain calculations are correct.  The top QBs are lasting in the NFL about as long as kickers/punters now, it's absurd.  But, to get the QB humming like that, which RG3 clearly isn't yet and a large reason why is he gets beat up every game, let's build this monster O line that will help sustain him and develop him in these tremendously important years that are getting squandered. 

[darrelgreenie]

I think I'll focus on Safety again this year like the past ~2 seasons.

Taking a quick look at their projected 40 times this S class doesn't look very fast.