Oldfan Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 After telling you in the second paragraph of this OP that the unit PPD stats were not as reliable as the Net (team) ranking, it never occurred to me that I should switch to the DVOA formula on the same website. Goldbean caught my error and provided the result which show that the defense has been making some steady progress. My thanks to him and apology to all. The average points-per-drive (PPD) is my choice for a quick-and-dirty stat to rank offenses, defenses, and teams. I use the rankings not the stat itself. Drive stats can be found at the Football Outsiders site. The rankings for the units, offense and defense, are not as reliable as the "net" stat which combines the two. The site Two-Minute Warning has the net PPD stat at a .92 correlation to wins. That's the best stat by their calculations. A weakness in the PPD is that it does not adjust for strength of schedule. For example, here are the rankings for a few of Mike Shanahan's old teams: Net=Team Ranking 1997 Broncos: O=1, D=6, Net=1 1998 Broncos: O=2, D=13, Net=2 1999 Broncos: O=18, D=17, Net=21 [Football Outsiders] Before 2011, the worst one-year increase in strength of schedule belonged to the 1999 Broncos. Denver had ridden the third-easiest schedule (in a 30-team league) to a Lombardi Trophy in 1998, only to fall apart the next season under the weight of John Elway's retirement, Terrell Davis' Week 4 injury, and -- oh, by the way -- the toughest schedule in the league. Note that the 1997 defense ranked sixth. After taking over full control of the Broncos in 1999, Mike would have just two defenses ranked in the top ten over the next 13 seasons (Skins years included): 2005 (6) and 2006 (9). In contrast, he would have eight offenses ranked in the top ten over the same span, including 2012 (O=6). We already knew that Mike's teams have been unbalanced. These stats just confirm that and offer a little more perspective on the degree. Here are the PPD rankings on Mike's Skins years: 2010: O=30, D=17, Net=27 2011: O=22, D=25, Net=27 2012: O=6, D=25, Net=12 How do we explain that the defense did better in 2010 than in 2011 and 2012? Why has there been no improvement? Jim Haslett told us that the Pittsburgh 3 - 4 would take three years to learn. Are the players not learning? Has the talent not improved? How would you explain this? You can find the drive stats here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I'm going to go with injuries and losing half of your back end on defense from the 2nd to the 3rd year and have little to no money to replace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mocountyskins Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 It is because Has is a clown and does not know when to blitz or sit back. He pisses me off always calling the wrong formations and having the wrong people in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xameil Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I'm going to go with injuries and losing half of your back end on defense from the 2nd to the 3rd year and have little to no money to replace it. I'm going with this response...I know it is against ES to go with logic, but I think I'll stick to the most logical and obvious reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mocountyskins Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Other teams suffer injuries and those teams never had much of a setback. IMO there is not much difference between a lot of our 2nd string guys and starters on the defensive side of the ball. It is Has! I have identified the culprit lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Other teams suffer injuries and those teams never had much of a setback. IMO there is not much difference between a lot of our 2nd string guys and starters on the defensive side of the ball. It is Has! I have identified the culprit lmao I'll agree with you if he can't figure out how to use all of the toys he has this year (knocking on wood that all stay healthy). I think it's a foregone conclusion that he's out after this year anyway, but his defense went HAM the second half of the season after a combination of him figuring out his defenses strengths and saying "**** it we're blitzing the **** out of you, beat it if you can" depending on the opponent. We haven't had a good FS since 21 and we haven't even had more than an average FS since (and even those two couldn't stay healthy). There was just a lot to fix on this team and that was the position that was chosen to stop gap, in my opinion. Average safety play will make this a top 15 defense if everyone stays healthy. Good safety play will make it top 10 easily, especially if the offense scores like it did last year. I've said it before, Orakpo and Kerrigan on the field at the same time with a two touchdown lead? Man, talk about free pass to the quarterback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Couple injuries with John Mara's cap nonsense and you have a large part of your answer. I'm also not convinced that Haslett is a great coordinator. He seems slow to adjust and gets caught making the same mistakes mulitiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markmills67 Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 If we start this season the way we Finished last we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#BgMase76# Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Last year was a wash. Loosing both projected starters at safetyt us behind the eight ball. Then the loss of Rak and Carriker was huge. We couldn't get any push up front w/out selling out on the blitz. Early in the season we didn't trust either safety what so ever. Jackson make some great plays but nowhere near the constant pressure Rak brought. Jemkins just never played on the same level as Carriker. That first NYG game was the perfect example. Williams walks up and is caught flat footed down in the box against Cruz. I mean what was the thought process there? Did he honestly think he could run w/ Cruz? Meriweather's limited play showed the defensive capabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted August 5, 2013 Author Share Posted August 5, 2013 If we start this season the way we Finished last we will be fine. Five of our seven wins to close the season were against division foes. Maybe our scouting isn't good against non-division rivals, or maybe Haz's game planning is slow to catch on to the opponent's tendencies. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahons21 Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 As people have already said, it most likely had a lot to do with injuries. Losing more than 1/3 of your projected starters, and arguably your best defender in Orakpo within the first couple games is a pretty rough blow. OF, I would also be curious as to how other high octane offenses have done in this category. I know that some of the worst passing defenses by yards, have been some of the historically greatest offenses, GB, comes to mind. Side note, there's an article on grantland.com right now about the Bears GM I think you'd really like. Check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWFLSkins Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Other teams suffer injuries and those teams never had much of a setback. IMO there is not much difference between a lot of our 2nd string guys and starters on the defensive side of the ball. It is Has! I have identified the culprit lmao The depth was not there until last year, the D finished top five versus the run, and the pass defense improved during the 7 game winning streak. The depth is getting better and better, the DL without Rak could not apply pressure, watch the difference with Rak and Brandon Jenkins on obvious passing downs. A safety that could cover over the top would make the DB's look completely competent in coverages. All you had to do was split the field and attack the weak side deep. I will will hold judgement until this year. I think with the additional LBers and DE's, obviously the draft picks, all brought in the depth is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stew Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I think part of it is injuries, and just not having the personnel in place, partially due to the salary crap hit. We have had to circumnavigate that cap hit for two seasons now, and were initially blind sided by it. My thoughts are that we had bigger plans to revamp and upgrade the Defense but were hamstrung (no pun intended) by injuries and the cap hit. I also believe that we have been trying to hide our deficiency at DB with upgrades and good play from our D line, getting pressure. The injuries last season, and injuries combined with suspensions this season have also played a factor in why our defense has struggled.I have high hopes though. I think eventually Raheem Morris will replace Haslet. I think that next offseason we will have much more cap space to address our needs on defense. Shannahan came into this organization and had a serious mess to clean up. He has done well, and my personal belief is that he is setting the table for Kyle to take over, and he is doing a good job at it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrypticVillain Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 How does turnovers fair in this assessment? I think we were number three in turnover differential. That has to count for something right? But yeah, I am also going to blame it on the injuries for the most part. But during the back half of the season, our D wasn't terrible. I would love to see some stats comparing the first eight games versus the last eight games... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted August 5, 2013 Author Share Posted August 5, 2013 [MAHONS] I would also be curious as to how other high octane offenses have done in this category. I know that some of the worst passing defenses by yards, have been some of the historically greatest offenses, GB, comes to mind. My theory is that it depends on the type of high octane offense. The Patriots have a ball control offense using mostly high percentage passes and YAC. Mike and Norv like to go vertical. Ball control should make the D look better than it really is. The more vertical Os have the opposite effect. Side note, there's an article on grantland.com right now about the Bears GM I think you'd really like. Check it out. I couldn't find it. I'll check again later. But I have read about Trestman. Things are looking up for Jay Cutler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarkskin Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 To all those who think Haslet is a crappy d-coordinator, what does that say about Shan-allen for keeping him around? Are they not aware he sucks? Or maybe he doesn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted August 5, 2013 Author Share Posted August 5, 2013 [MLSKINS] How does turnovers fair in this assessment? I think we were number three in turnover differential. That has to come for something right? Turnovers end the drive, so they lower the defenses PPD. However, they don't reflect the field position advantage given the offense. Defenses which consistently get takeaways year after year should be given a bonus above the PPD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 The defense had a bad stretch from late 2011 through mid 2012, in part due to health, in part due to scheme and poor decisions. I think injuries in the Rams game cost the team that day, losing both Orakpo and Carriker. You can recall in week 1 the amount of pressure and harassment we put on Drew Brees all day. Weeks 2 and 3 were defensive debacles as big plays and the passing game beat us. The Giants game the D played well, but Has has done a very good job against the Giants since early 2011. My thought is a healthy D wins the Rams and first Giants game. A more competent D you win the Bengals game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 The NFL is an offense league now. You really don't need a good D, just average. The Ravens D was mediocre at best last year, and yeah the 49ers D in the regular season was really good but in the playoffs their wins were basically all shootouts and their D got lit up in the Super Bowl. An average D with last year's O is probably playling in the NFC Championship game at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted August 5, 2013 Author Share Posted August 5, 2013 The NFL is an offense league now. You really don't need a good D, just average.... I can't agree with that. Unless you can figure out why scoring seven points is more important than keeping the opponent from scoring seven points, offense and defense will always be equally important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Luva Luva Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 1. Haz and Mike inherited a team with zero skill and depth, it takes time to rebuild it. 2. Injuries 3. Cap penalty. Last but not least, this isn't Madden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted August 5, 2013 Author Share Posted August 5, 2013 1. Haz and Mike inherited a team with zero skill and depth, it takes time to rebuild it. 2. Injuries 3. Cap penalty. Last but not least, this isn't Madden. Excuse #1 doesn't work since the D did better in 2010 and three years is ample time to show improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Defense in the 2013 NFL is really about creating turnovers, generating a pass rush and slowing the other offense down long enough to let your offense score. The 49ers were able to do this against the Packers in the playoffs (they still gave up tons of points) and do it enough against the Falcons to come back. The Redskins were able to do this in the 2nd half of the season, and would have easily been able to do it against Seattle with a healthy Griffin out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ejay183 Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 The Redskins were able to do this in the 2nd half of the season, and would have easily been able to do it against Seattle with a healthy Griffin out there The crazy thing is that the Skins didnt lose the lead until the 4th. I dont even want to think of the score if Griffin didnt get hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinny21 Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 In my head, it comes down a few different things: 1. Injuries - two guys clearly better than their backups (Carriker and Tanard), and two guys probably better (Meriweather and Orakpo) 2. Depth - (or lack thereof) roster overhaul, draft limitations, cap penalty 3. Lack of in-game adjustment - I've actually been pretty impressed with Haslett's game-planning, but the 2rd and 4th quarters were often abysmal. 4. Star power - we have had some solid players on D, but few (if any) elite players. The frequently poor acquisitions by the previous regimes, along with limited resources probably account for this. Regarding the last point, I think this issue is why I'm excited about these rooks. Big time potential for the defensive picks makes the risks higher, but the reward potentially higher still. I'm not sure if the OP's stat changed later in the season, but the Defense sure looked a lot better. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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