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***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***


RonArtest15

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http://deadspin.com/wjla-in-washington-d-c-is-reporting-cbs-turner-nba-an-1680096868

hahaha

I've never been a fan of paying low skill players big money. Deandre Jordan is a super athlete, a rim protector, and a rebounding machine. He also creates much of the "lob city" stuff by moving very well without the ball. Tristan scores on put backs and when the defense gambles by leaving the 5th option unguarded because even his own team mates fail to hit him with passes when he's all by himself.

I'm with you on the money and description of his game, he was a fool not to take it. I think he has legitimate value as a player though. Just not at 10+ mil.

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Atlanta got through Toronto and Chicago with wins. They're sitting on 12 in a row now and haven't lost in 2015. Last team to beat them was Milwaukee the day after Christmas (by 30 points), don't know what happened there. Then before that it was a one point loss at Orlando in early December on the second night of a home and away back to back.

So apparently the only way to beat Atlanta now is to play a home and away against them. Those were their only two losses in the month of December.

At the halfway point for the season, they're on pace for 66 wins.

They've got all winnable games from here to the end of January too. Home versus OKC and home versus Portland are the only two games that look tough.

There is a very good chance they finish January unbeaten. Two losses in two months. Christ.

They started the year off scuffling, but since they figured it out at the end of November, they're 25-3. Nobody has played better than them over that stretch.

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I honestly don't know who can beat them. They are so deep and have a guy that literally is automatic from 3 along with two bigs that can knock down midrange jumpers with ease.

I seriously don't know who could beat them 4 times in the East. They are ridiculous

And then you have guys like Teague and Carroll as well. Their passing looks like something out of 2K.

They have a .700 win % against teams with winning records.

Edited by BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93
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They've been unbeatable for the past two months. They are getting the absolute most from their roster.

But the playoffs and regular season are two different animals. And top end talent matters more than almost anything and that's where they don't overwhelm you. Jeff Teague isn't Tony Parker. Al Horford isn't Tim Duncan. Kyle Korver isn't Manu Ginobli. Their big advantages--depth and coaching--get lessened by the playoff format. With all that time to prepare, a Randy Wittman can actually out coach his counterpart. And an 8 man rotation means most of those good young guards and forwards won't even play.

I wouldn't look forward to playing them in a series. But I also wouldn't be terrified of them. They're big time over achievers.

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Right...if the Spurs were in the Eastern Conf, I'd agree.

But when their competition is Chicago, Washington, and Toronto, I'd wager they have more talent and depth that all 3 of those teams

They are 5-2 against those 3 teams with Toronto the only ones beating them. They are better, barring injury.

I mean maybe they don't have guys that have been in commercials and stuff like that but they have stars

Edited by BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93
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I'd say they have a lot of really good players that aren't quite stars.

None of their players are elite offensive creators.

How many elite players are there between the East's top 4 tho?

Wall.

Maybe Gasol offensively. 50% of the time with Rose?

That's my point more than anything else

I get what you're saying tho Steve

It's only January after all

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The Hawks are winning because they play smart, efficient, and consistent basketball.  Atlanta is currently 2nd in assists per game and 3rd in assist/turn over ratio.  2nd in points per shot attempt.  3rd in AFG%. 

 

If the playoffs started right now I'd expected them to steam roll through the first round and probably the 2nd.  Right now they are a great deal better than everyone else in the East.  They have to still be that 42 games from now however, and I'm not sure they can sustain it.   

 

In other news, Wiggins is averaging 20ppg in January.  In the last 10 games he's scored less than 20 twice.  Rookie is starting to look like he could be something special. (Kevin Love has been a big pile of ugly and now has back issues.  Trade looking worse and worse) 

Edited by Destino
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Yep, this FiveThirtyEight article was particularly rough on him:

they predicted the Cavs would get 65 wins.  If the Cavs win their next 41 games, they'll be close to 65, I guess.  I wonder what the advanced stats say the likelihood of that is? 

 

The Houston Rockets are a stat nerds dream, no mid range everything behind the arc or at the rim.  Watch what happens to them, and that type of offense, when the playoffs roll around. 

Edited by Destino
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How many elite players are there between the East's top 4 tho?

Wall.

Maybe Gasol offensively. 50% of the time with Rose?

That's my point more than anything else

I get what you're saying tho Steve

It's only January after all

Yeah, you're right. Although I'd say that Lowry and a healthy DeRozan are fairly close to being elite offensive creators. Closer than the guys on the Hawks. The East is so thin in top notch creators. LeBron and Irving are on a mess of a team that'll be completely unpredictable in a postseason format. Melo is on a comically bad team. Paul George is hurt. Derrick Rose is in that post-knee injury Penny Hardaway 50/50 stage. He could feel good and have an amazing series and single-handedly put a team like Atlanta away. Or his leg injuries could flair up and he could be a complete non-factor. And Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are on a pretty rag tag team, neither being reliable stud first options that can carry a team any more. I wouldn't bet against those two playing like All Stars in the postseason but I wouldn't expect it.

Atlanta's offense has blitzed opponents in the regular season, the system consistently produces good shots for their best finishers. In the regular season, it's hard to deal with a great system on one night of game planning, and no real practice. It'll be much much harder for them to get what they want against a well prepared opponent.

That's what separates them from the great Spurs teams. The Spurs have always had at least one elite offensive creator, three before Manu and Duncan got old.

Also, the Hawks don't truly have SA's size and balance.

They'll have a good chance to win any series because they are a great three ball shooting team and that can really swing games even when you get outplayed. But I'm not buying into them. I need to see them make that run in the postseason first.

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Advanced stats are **** when looking at very small sample sizes.  Anyone that doesn't understand that and doesn't use stats along with context (team, what he's being asked to do, etc) doesn't understand the difference between real life and a video game.   

 

Also about fivethirtyeight... they predicted the Cavs would get 65 wins.  If the Cavs win their next 41 games, they'll be close to 65, I guess.  I wonder what the advanced stats say the likelihood of that is? 

 

The Houston Rockets are a stat nerds dream, no mid range everything behind the arc or at the rim.  Watch what happens to them, and that type of offense, when the playoffs roll around.

Excellent post. I agree with all of it and I wish I'd written it. You wouldn't believe how many arguments I have to just bow out of on RealGM because of a fundamental disagreement on the illustrative value of stats. So many stat nerds there working so hard to get meaning out of stats derived from box score numbers that ultimately don't even come close to validating their conclusions.

Basketball is one of the worst sports for quantifying in game action with counting stats. This is a self evident truth about the game to me. It's suuuuuuuch a team game and such an emotional/psychological game. First off, there aren't even close to enough officially kept box score stats to capture all of the on court contributions that lead to winning. Second, properly weighting and contextualizing the stats is such a monumentally difficult and complicated task that no one ever does it well.

I see smart basketball fans say things like "players are their numbers" and just shake my head. Many are guys who played/play the game! That I just can't understand. Some mentally rigid stuff right there.

IMO the only way to really get at the truth about players and what's happening on the court is a good gestalt analysis derived from watching tons of games. I recognize that nobody actually has the time for that except the people paid to do it. And as such, I recognize that everyone wants and uses stats because of that. But everyone needs to keep the limitations of stats in mind and that's where your nerdy RealGM poster or your five thirty eight writer fail. Personally I think five thirty eight is a gimmick with totally useless coverage of basketball. Zach Lowe destroys them. He actually knows the game and does the film work and that's the biggest part of why he's the best analyst in the media.

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In other news, Wiggins is averaging 20ppg in January.  In the last 10 games he's scored less than 20 twice.  Rookie is starting to look like he could be something special. (Kevin Love has been a big pile of ugly and now has back issues.  Trade looking worse and worse)

He is a special talent no doubt. Once he gets his man strength, he'll be the best athlete in the NBA IMO.

I'm glad to see he's playing better now that he seems to be getting comfortable. And Minnesota seems to have figured out better line ups for him to play with. I still don't totally trust him though. I do think he's got the talent to be Tracy McGrady, or maybe even a more athletic Paul George. But I still think he's got too much Vince Carter in him for him to end up being TMac. I think Minnesota needs one more key foundation piece. Someone that is really fiery that can give Wiggins the kick in the pants he'll often need and get him to kick it into top gear. A hyper-competitive and intense personality that can be a galvanizing leader. IMO that's the only way they'll get the most out of Wiggins.

Side note: how about Shabazz Muhammad? Remember when he was the first or second best prospect in his class and we were talking about drafting him if we got the #1 overall pick during that awful start? People were saying he was James Harden with a post game. OK, maybe I was saying that. I looked stupid for it but the kid is proving he is an alpha personality and a born scorer.

Minnesota needs to figure out what to do with Zach Levine. He is not a real PG and, TBH, Muhammad is probably a better young talent to play next to Wiggins. Between those three and Robinson, they've got too many talented young wings to deal with. Plus they've got good vet players--Pekovic, Rubio, K-Mart, Young. They should be trying to make some deals to consolidate their talent with major acquisitions. They don't have cap space, nor would they be a FA draw any time soon. They should be trying to poach the talent from teams whose rebuilds are stalled (Philly?) or who are thinking about going shaking things up (Denver?). If I were them I'd try and move Pekovic. Then maybe bring in a Kenneth Faried perhaps, who would thrive in a place like Minnesota IMO. Or what about Greg Monroe?

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I remember wanting to draft shabazz, but I also really wanted Otto. If Otto gets the starting nod (which he should) I would expect some tayshaun type numbers. He needs the confidence from the coaching staff, and pierce needs to play less.

That was a terrible trade, and we all knew it would be. Trading one of their former 1sts? Ok. Trading both? That's asinine. F Cleveland sports though.

Levine won't start over Rubio. He's just learning the ropes right now. Secondly, no way in hell Monroe chooses to leave Detroit for Minnesota.

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Doesn't he have a bad back?  That's not going to help.

I thought it was a foot injury but you could be right.

This kid is too talented to just eat himself out of the league but man, he's on his way. Philly is not a good situation for him. They've got a disastrous organizational culture like we did. A talented and impressionable young big man with a lazy streak playing for a total loser? Andray Blatche. Eddy Curry. This movie almost always ends poorly.

They won't do it, but I wish Philly would trade him to some team that could actually get his career on track.

On the topic of young big men, Alex Len continues to impress. He's huge, explosive, and super coordinated. And he pairs all of that with good skills. Sees the floor well, natural passer. Good shooter with soft touch.

He's going to end up being the best player from that draft class. Damn. That was an awful draft class, but Len has a chance to be an All Star and redeem that class a little bit. I'm thinking Len and Giannis are going to be the hindsight 1 and 2, but I'm glad Len didn't end up in Cleveland. The Phoenix training staff is incredible. Glad Len ended up there.

The way Len and Andre Drummond look, I think they're becoming a legit counterpoint to the Michael Jordan/Kevin Durant draft scenario of "don't just take the center because he's a center." It appears taking the super talent center with red flags will still sometimes give you the best value at the top of the draft.

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Joel Embiid now weighs 300 pounds? WTF? 20 years old and gained 50 pounds just from being sedentary for a few months?

That's not good. His diet must be awful.

 

That is never a good sign. Professional athletes who have poor diets normally get injured more often and have shorter careers. 

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That is never a good sign. Professional athletes who have poor diets normally get injured more often and have shorter careers.

It would scare me to death even if he were healthy with no history of leg and back injuries. That he does plus the reports of him clashing with team trainers and walking out of training sessions are HUGE red flags.

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