WR Stevie Johnson: "Good-as-Gone" in Buffalo; Should We?!? (Mods: Please "Do Yo' Thang" ---WE DID :)

[The Tris]

I've been following the convo, I was just curious what both of you thought the actually contract might be for V. Jackson?

sidenote - I actually see Quick as a star in the making. And just from the perspective of countenance, Colston is nearly the antithesis of SJ.

I think you are looking at a Greg Jennings level contract, adjusted for 2012 cap.

Jennings got a 4 year, 30 mm deal, prior to his 4th year in the league (he had gone 600, 900, 1100 his first few years).

Johnson had worse numbers his first two seasons, but will have gotten close to back to back 1000 yard seasons.

I think that 30 over 4 is probably where he ends up around, as the 2nd or 3rd highest paid guy in this FA WR class.

As for VJax, I think you are looking at closer to Brandon Marshall numbers, 4-5 years at an average of 10 mm per.

Who is Quick?

As an overarching point, I don't really like giving big money to any FA WR unless they are truly unique, and I especially don't like this specific class that is chock full of head jobs, divas, shaky hands, and suspension risks.

If I HAD (which we don't, by the way) to sign a FA WR to the $25-45 mm contract, my personal preference would be:

VJax

Meachem

Mannignham

Johnson

Huge drop:

Bowe

Colston

[Rufus T Firefly]

Well....I do know what Bowe has to offer AKM311.

Look at my user name...

He is a very hard worker with good character

He got put in an unfair spotlight ,on that terrible Palko pass he didn't go up for. (if you guys know what I'm talking about

This man has been a warrior for the Chiefs,since drafted there.

He's the true #1,this team still...doesn't have.

That we have longed needed...

He truly reminds me of Art Monk,but faster

never drops passes

Boy, it's fun to make up our own facts, isn't it? I'm 7 feet tall. Yay, that was fun!

Bowe is a guy with a suspension on his record (like Williams and Davis, he's one bad test from missing a season) who has a history of inconsistent play and coming to camp out of shape. The Pittsburgh play was just the latest example of him not giving max effort.

From 08-10, he had the second worst drop percentage (ahead of Braylon) among NFL WRs.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/23/drop-percentage/

Just because you like the guy doesn't mean all the facts about him just dissapear. Sorry.

And you ought to be banned for comparing the chump to Art Monk on this board.

[DCsportsfan53]

I see. Dude sounds like he has a WAY bigger ego than his talent.

Thanks guys.

Hail.

Don't have any opinion on him either way but I love how one touchdown dance and one tweet were enough to convince you he's a low character egomaniac. I love sports fans.

[RemoveSnyder]

If I HAD (which we don't, by the way) to sign a FA WR to the $25-45 mm contract, my personal preference

I didn't understand which guy you were talking about with the greg jennings type money, I guess that is for SJ, right?

It just threw me for a second. I think I figured it out.

I understand what you wrote about VJ, around a 45 to 50 million dollar total contract, is your guess?

There's no reason to think that Colston is the kind-of guy who thinks about money as a priority or incentive to playing well. No reason to think that he would ask for tier 1 of the "#1 WR" type money. Not that I'm confusing your take as suggesting that.

Nor that he would be worth such a thing. Likewise there's no confusing the athletic ability of the two: Jackson v Colston, hence the spark of an idea that the contracts would be different, in many ways. I think one inherently understands that simple divide between the two. Going after a MC is different than going after an VJ, in more ways than just money, but also function and ability in scheme. Just like bringing in an eddie royal is, in many ways, a "checking of the tires," so to speak or a reclamation.

[Rufus T Firefly]

If I HAD (which we don't, by the way) to sign a FA WR to the $25-45 mm contract, my personal preference would be:

VJax

Meachem

Mannignham

Johnson

Huge drop:

Bowe

Colston

Personally, I have been thinking we should go after Manningham or Meachem, but I believe the cost for each should be in the 4-5 mil per year range.

[SJValleySkinz]

I see there's a lot of psychiatrists on ES.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Don't have any opinion on him either way but I love how one touchdown dance and one tweet were enough to convince you he's a low character egomaniac. I love sports fans.

I made a judgement, rightly or wrongly, on his ego; not his character.

I love have things can get so misconstrued on the net.

Hail.

[Dirt]

hm. Is the need at WR as bad as we're making it? Was Hankerson's big day a fluke? I think he does well. Nobody's really talking about how Gaffney's running great routes because he's wide open all the time. Moss is moss, and great in the slot.

So there's 3. Armstrong stretches the field? I dunno about him. Stallworth can play. but I suppose if we were to add a "#1" it makes the other guys even better.

I want CB before WR. I wouldn't even be that upset if we go into next year with the same WR, problem is, if 2 of them go down we're kinda screwed. So do we chase a #1, or get another 'gaffney/stallworth'.

I like Stevie Johnson's size, and from what I've seen, he's targeted in the endzone a lot. Wouldn't hurt to have him, but part of this thread makes it sound like our WR situation is utterly hopeless. I disagree.

[RemoveSnyder]

I've debated whether I should even post this, this thread is kind-of like a shark tank.

Meachem

I guess point one: If you were the NYG, would you let MM walk?

Whatever your answer is, is your answer as to whether MM is on the market.

My guess is no.

_

The other point, N.O. has to sign Brees and then possibly Nicks, Colston or Meachem (considering the monies invested into Evans) ... somebody is going to shake loose. And I'd venture to guess it's neither Brees nor Nicks.

If you were N.O., would you let meachem walk?

Your answer, is your answer.

My guess is no.

__

I'm trying to align myself with the viewpoint of others; my guess as to the reason why most fans/folks like meachem over colston, are some of the same reasons why the saints might retain him. You follow?

Maybe a combo of things:

He is a few years younger, has more speed and athletic burst, people are hoping for some upside and greater individual production (from meachem) by virtue of an greater role / more focus if colston is gone, etc.

But probably the concerns with injury and longevity around Colston weight more on the decision, than anything else. And that doesn't involve meachem, it involves colston - yet meachem is the greatest beneficiary of that decision. Afterall, meachem being one of their 1st round selections, it doesn't seem right to give up on him. Especially when he does things like he did in the Detroit game. It's easy to notice that meachem has more speed and a little more pep to his step than Colston, but that does't make him "better." At least not yet.

And that is probably just a refection of the injuries that have weighed on colston, as much as a reflection of meachem's youth and less vigorous wear-and-tear. Eventually meachem will have to deal with the onus on him. They both are different in different ways.

That type of forward projection doesn't always work. For both ways. Projecting for someone to take the mantle of production over another guy, or likewise, predicting injury isn't an exact thing.

And again, Meacham had a knee injury his 1st or 2nd year, he's one knee injury away from not being anything faster than colston. See how that works? - You can't know.

I don't know if one can compare meacham to VJ in the same tier. There's the potential, yes, but how could RM ask for similar money based on production? - He couldn't.

Now there is a distinction here, which is fine. One might be banking on his chance of having a breakout year, since he's still young and has shown promise - but I'm guessing if anyone is going to take that leap first, it's going to be the Saints, with their own guy. One might see the upside and potential from Meachem, but he's different than VJ. He's not the same physical build. Meachem has some good speed, but not jaw dropping, you know? Not to knock RM, he's just different than him.

Chances are, RTF, that neither meachem nor manningham are on the market.

[Prototype]

I would much rather go for Eddie Royal. DC native, drafted by Shanahan, excellent 2nd-3rd WR, exceptional kick returner, high character guy. 3-in-1 package.

[jivelikenice]

Sorry, but give me our OWN 7th rounders and let's see how they do.

Johnson is a bonafide buffoon.

So your argument is play Terrence Austin over signing Stevie? I don't follow....

---------- Post added December-16th-2011 at 05:42 AM ----------

I agree with a lot of this thread. Johnson is good, but flawed. He seems to be asking for a lot of money considering his flaws. And he'll cost a decent amount in assets (presumably draft picks). I'd pass.

Not to mention, I would be suprised if Buffalo does not franchise him.

His contract is up. I only would suggest signing him if they don't slap the franchise tag on him. Otherwise I would focus on a cheaper option like Eddie Royal and go for depth at the position. I do not want to break the bank for Bowe or Vince Jackson

---------- Post added December-16th-2011 at 05:44 AM ----------

I agree with a lot of this thread. Johnson is good, but flawed. He seems to be asking for a lot of money considering his flaws. And he'll cost a decent amount in assets (presumably draft picks). I'd pass.

Not to mention, I would be suprised if Buffalo does not franchise him.

His contract is up. I only would suggest signing him if they don't slap the franchise tag on him. Otherwise I would focus on a cheaper option like Eddie Royal and go for depth at the position. I do not want to break the bank for Bowe or Vince Jackson

---------- Post added December-16th-2011 at 05:51 AM ----------

No. Stevie Johnson drops way too many balls and that celebration dance against the Jets was unnecessary.

So we're basing personnel moves off of celebratory dances. I guess its impossible to think he may have learned a lesson? And if we're talking drops then Santana should be released this offseason according to that reasoning. He's dropped what, like 4 passes the last 2 weeks including one at our opponents 5 yard line with a chance to go in for the game tying td! Now that I'm thinking about it, Moss also dropped a pass with us up 17 at St Louis that nearly lead to a blown lead versus a 2 win team. Cut him today, don't wait til the end of the season.

[Spunkush]

He dropped a touchdown last year and Tweeted " how you gonna do me like that God? " God makes him drop passes apparently so I'd avoid him.

it was a joke about how players always thank god for helping them win... Stevie is a great receiver and is wayy better than Braylon Edwards. Stevie Johnson had 8 catches for 75 yards and a TD against Revis, plus a dropped TD that would have won the game. Thats his only negative, its that he has had 2 games where he dropped the game winning catch... but hes atleast getting in position (which is more than our current WRs are doing).

[jivelikenice]

I think some of you guys should read this interview

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/07/01/interview-with-stevie-johnson-wr-buffalo-bills/

the guy isnt like TO, DJackson, Ocho Cinco, hes a hard working 7th rounder who started playing football in high school and reciever in junior college. this guy is raw yea but he is learning and getting better. im serious he is better then bowe. yeah you bowe fans dont know what your getting yourself into, talk about drops with some KC fans and see what they have to say. He is big and strong but he definitley doesnt have rice hands over there. And Moss guys drops huge passes to win games and we were all on board to resign him last year even after the cowboy drop which was equally as bad as the stevie johnson drop vs pitt. this kid is what you want in football players, how everyone got offended by his dance moves, his religion, his twitter of whatever, look at him as a the person. not the the crap around him.

People here are making their assumptions of Stevie based entirely on the his celebration & dropped td versus the Jets & the drop v Pittsburgh last year. What's funny about the Jets game is NOBODY here is talking about how Revis couldn't cover him. Almost everytime I've seen Revis go against a go-to receiver he has shut them down. He couldn't guard Stevie and if he had just caught that td he would have had 100+ yards and 2 tds on the best corner since Deion. Even with the drop he still played an impressive game inspite of being on Revis Island all game.

Also please look at the other wrs on this list who had high drop percentages in 2010. I guess we wouldn't want anyone from this list, right?

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/23/drop-percentage/

[Rufus T Firefly]

I've debated whether I should even post this, this thread is kind-of like a shark tank.

etc etc

You make a lot of assumptions about teams not letting FAs go. Quality FAs leave teams all the time. Teams need to balance out who to keep and who not to and so quality players hit the market all the time. especially teams with a lot of high-priced players, like the Saints and Giants. I think the constant refrain of "they won't let him go" I see posted to virtually every FA gets tedious. I have no idea who will hit the market, but I mention players I would be interested in if they do, and whom I don't see any reason to assume won't, hit the market (you won't see me posting that we should sign Drew Brees, for example).

And I'm not interested in a star WR at a star WR price, which is why I mention guys I think will cost 4-5 mil. I am not saying Manningham and Meachem are as good as VJax, Bowe or Deseasn (or even Colston), just that I don't want those higher priced guys, for various reasons.

[RemoveSnyder]

You make a lot of assumptions

I stated my opinion, just like you.

I'm not interested in a star WR at a star WR price

Cool. I don't think I was demanding the opposite.

(or even Colston)

I don't know what his asking price will be, but I've stated some reasons why it could conceivably not be that expensive.

[wilco_holland]

I liked the dude comming out of Kentucky. He is probally the only late round star that I have project before hand. Only I don´t like him right now. Drops, the attitude, the acts...not a grown up pro player.

He does have some Moss (´Tana) in him.

Personally I rather have a no name WR crew. That everybody is like, huh? Who? Core of 5-6 recievers who all can be productive. This game that guy is 'hot' the next game the other guy is 'hot'. So you are less predictible. Same kind of systeme we use(d) at RB, keep rotating people.

[Rabsuz]

Stevie is just absent minded, he's not a jerk or diva, he has good intentions. Just things like wearing a beater to an interview, celebrations, sending out tweets where he doesn't think about what he says, it's all good hearted. I would compare him to JaVale McGee in his personality so I wouldn't say he is a bad guy just because of a god tweet, dude is just absent minded and aloof, seems friendly and almost child like, I like him and think he's relatable. I mean I don't know this guy or pretend to know about him, this is just what I gather from him.

He has some really suspect hands though, a LOT of crucial drops, more than Moss. I don't think this offense has the luxury of having a dropped ball on a drive. I wouldn't trust him with a lot of money invested in him or at #1, but for the right price he might be pretty nice. He would be good if he had better hands, you can say to yourself you can live with the drops, until he drops a game winner again. The pittsburgh drop wasn't the first or last drop he had, especially in crunch time. I think this team needs to work on being mistake free, so i might lean to passing on him. I think Terrrence Austin can do everything Stevie can without the lack of hands and money.

[KDawg]

Why is everyone ignoring the fact that he has questionable hands? I see Rabsuz mentioned it above. Stevie Johnson is not our answer. He's a character, sure. He'd be a ton of fun in the locker room, absolutely. But I just don't like his hands.

---------- Post added December-16th-2011 at 08:38 AM ----------

In fact, according to football outsiders, here's a side by side with Jabar Gaffney and Stevie Johnson

Some of these are comprehensive stats, if you want an explanation on them, I urge you to go to footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr and check them out.

Stevie Johnson (league rank in parenthesis):

6-2, 202 lbs.

DYAR 128 (28)

YAR 126 (32)

DVOA 2.5% (43)

Catch Rate 57% (This number isn't the end all be all. Larry Fitzgerald has a low catch rate as well. FO doesn't identify drops as they aren't an official NFL stat)

Jabar Gaffney:

6-1, 205 lbs

DYAR 134 (30)

YAR 161 (24)

DVOA 6.7% (36)

Catch Rate 60%

They are extremely similar players.

[Audible_Red40]

I don't see him as a true number 1 WR or an upgrade to what is on this team already.

Say NO to Stevie.

[milellie111]

QUARTERBACK. QUARTERBACK. QUARTERBACK.

Again. It doesn't matter who we have lining up outside. It could be Andre Johnson or Stevie Johnson. All moot without a Quarterback.

[The Tris]

QUARTERBACK. QUARTERBACK. QUARTERBACK.

Again. It doesn't matter who we have lining up outside. It could be Andre Johnson or Stevie Johnson. All moot without a Quarterback.

I'm not sure a single person on here is arguing otherwise.

What is in essence being argued is how we should spend money on resources to support a QB.

Some people think we need to spend money on a #1 receiver.

Others, like myself, do not view that as a priority, and think big money would be better spent else where.

[WSHRedskins3ATLBraves3]

We should stay away from Stevie Johnson.

He's the anti-Santonio Holmes. He drops balls in crucial times when his team needs him.

[The Tris]

There's no reason to think that Colston is the kind-of guy who thinks about money as a priority or incentive to playing well. No reason to think that he would ask for tier 1 of the "#1 WR" type money. Not that I'm confusing your take as suggesting that.

Yeah, that was just a list of the six most attractive WRs on the market in my opinion.

I certainly agree that Colston would be on the low end of the spectrum, probably even below the $25 MM floor I arbitratily set.

As you alluded, Colston is interesting that he might be able to be gotten at a "scratch and dent' price point. He's interesting to me as someone who could be gotten at value, while I don't think SJ will be a value.

And yeah, its a completely different proposition to go after Colston than to go after VJ, Bowe or SJ. I only meant to list the handful of guys, whether at that big money or medium money tier, who would be of interest to me personally in signing.

And of them all, only VJ is a truly elite talent, and someone who really deserves #1 WR money.

Also, to your later post about the Saints - if I was NO, I would sign Meachem, no question. He is however, at best, the 3rd most important FA they have this year.

[Stadium-Armory]

This may sound cilche, but now, more than ever, we need character guys.

See what happens when you draft players with question marks? Both Fred and Trent had the "could work harder" tag pre-draft. We now see how that translates to the NFL.

I'm not saying they're bad guys. But I want guys who want it. Guys who will sacrifice everything for their team mates.

Johnson doesn't appear that guy.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Also, to your later post about the Saints - if I was NO, I would sign Meachem, no question. He is however, at best, the 3rd most important FA they have this year.

I would say 5th, at best (Brees, Nicks, Colston, Porter) with Aubrayo Franklin thrown in. If there is a team that is sure to have to let FAs go, it's the Saints. And letting one of their WRs go is a logical place to start. If you were them, and you were chasing Super Bowls while your window was open, would you be more likely to let your clear #1 WR go, or a guy who could be argued is anywhere from your 2nd to 4th?