The Tris Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 People are looking at the wrong numbers here, as it's tough to compare a QB with one year of stats to ones with multiple years. This is a post I made about Newton's unheard of run pass ratio a few weeks back: Re Cam Newton:As Mike Vick and Vince Young have taught us, QBs with a high run/pass ratio have a hard time adjusting to the NFL where they must go through their progressions instead of tucking and running. Vick's run/pass ratio in college was 1:1.49 (one rush to every 1.49 pass attempts) Young's run/pass ratio was: 1:1.57. Vick basically took 10 years and a prison detour to learn how to read defenses and go through his reads. Young is in year five and showing little signs of improvement in the passing game - he has still yet to eclipse 12 passing TDs in a season. Cam Newton's run/pass ratio is 1:1.02. Meaning he runs as often as he passes. If his first or second read is not wide open, he is tucking and running. On top of that, he has thrown just 246 passes as a starter in college, a miniscule number compared to any past first round QB. If you don't think he has a LONG adjustment period to the NFL, you simply do not understand the differences between being a college QB and an NFL QB. ---------- Post added January-11th-2011 at 12:31 PM ---------- What is also interesting is that Oregon's game plan was to force Newton to beat them with the pass - lots of single coverage over the course of the game, and tons of men in the box. The result was Newtons most pass attempts for the season, and Auburn's second lowest points total. I remain unconvinced that Newton's arm was the reason that Auburn won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How about Steve Young? Oh, that's right...he's white...we can't compare Newton to him. Oh ****,..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsFTW Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 [/color]What is also interesting is that Oregon's game plan was to force Newton to beat them with the pass - lots of single coverage over the course of the game, and tons of men in the box. The result was Newtons most pass attempts for the season, and Auburn's second lowest points total. I remain unconvinced that Newton's arm was the reason that Auburn won. Yeah, I'd be surprised if he doesn't go at best late 1st. I guess Oakland could always save his ass. I'd love it if Jerry Jones grabs him too, that would be a sweet waste of a 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger187126 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You want to translate this mess? WTF are you trying to say. Also, unless you're BLC, I never said anything that could be considered "racial" to you. racial aside, look at those numbers and tell me more about cam newton's amazing throwing prowess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tris Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, I'd be surprised if he doesn't go at best late 1st. I guess Oakland could always save his ass. I'd love it if Jerry Jones grabs him too, that would be a sweet waste of a 1st. Some guys on football outsiders have suggested he is a perfect Chan Gailey QB, and that Buffalo might take him at #3. Would certainly be a good fit, as he could sit behind Fitzpatrick, as Gailey schemes the offense around him. Spiller is a perfect compliment to his skill set as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiggosMohawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How about Newton to Tebow. Is that a valid (and recent) comparison of playing styles for college QBs? I remember hearing some of the same negatives on Tebow pre-draft. His late-season success might drive up Newton's value in the draft. Not advocating drafting CN, but I would love him to be taken top 10 to push another blue-chipper down to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tris Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How about Newton to Tebow. Is that a valid (and recent) comparison of playing styles for college QBs? I remember hearing some of the same negatives on Tebow pre-draft. His late-season success might drive up Newton's value in the draft. Not advocating drafting CN, but I would love him to be taken top 10 to push another blue-chipper down to us Tebow's negatives were negated a bit by his ridiculous character positives. Though I would say Newton has far fewer mechanical problems than Tebow had coming out. I would expect Newton to interview very well, from all accounts he has a pretty magnetic personality. Someone is going to fall in love with him, and of all the top QBs, I would be most surprised if Newton felt out of the top ten. If there is one thing teams like, it is a huge ceiling. But going back, let's not pretend that Tebow has made it as an NFL QB. He had one great passing game against the Texans, who opposing QBs on average had a 100.5 QB rating. Even in that game, he completed just over 50% of his passes. His other two starts, he was 8-16 for 138 yards and a TD, and 16-36 for 205 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Tebow still has a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 All I can is that this game hasn't changed my stance on where the Redskins should go with this draft.Focus in on the trenches this upcoming year, and then move out to the skill positions in 2012. What if they drafted a QB with the first pick and then 3 straight linemen with their next 3 picks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Smith Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Watched the game and came away thinking Cam Newton is going to need a lot of work before he is ready to start in the NFL. Wouldn't think of using more that a 3rd round pick on him. Yes, but he was far off his game though, last night. Everyone is entitled to an off-game at least once in a while. Too bad it was the title game, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiggosMohawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 But going back, let's not pretend that Tebow has made it as an NFL QB. He had one great passing game against the Texans, who opposing QBs on average had a 100.5 QB rating. Even in that game, he completed just over 50% of his passes. His other two starts, he was 8-16 for 138 yards and a TD, and 16-36 for 205 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Tebow still has a long way to go. I agree. Tebow isnt even an average NFL qb at this point. However, I didnt even expect this much production from him as a rookie. How about I just say his "exceeding expectations" might boost Newton's value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger187126 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes, but he was far off his game though, last night. Everyone is entitled to an off-game at least once in a while. Too bad it was the title game, though. doesn't matter, he's a project qb. he hasn't thrown a lot at the collegiate level, and he's relied on his athleticism to get him through. this doesn't work in the nfl. good for buffalo. i hope they pick him. and i don't care whether he succeeds or not. i don't hate the guy. i just don't want a project at the qb position. i want sam bradford. plug him in and let him play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tebow's negatives were negated a bit by his ridiculous character positives.Though I would say Newton has far fewer mechanical problems than Tebow had coming out. I would expect Newton to interview very well, from all accounts he has a pretty magnetic personality. Someone is going to fall in love with him, and of all the top QBs, I would be most surprised if Newton felt out of the top ten. If there is one thing teams like, it is a huge ceiling. But going back, let's not pretend that Tebow has made it as an NFL QB. He had one great passing game against the Texans, who opposing QBs on average had a 100.5 QB rating. Even in that game, he completed just over 50% of his passes. His other two starts, he was 8-16 for 138 yards and a TD, and 16-36 for 205 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Tebow still has a long way to go. No doubt he has a long way to go, but those sound like typical rookie QB numbers. You can't judge stats for a rookie QB too harshly that's playing before he's really ready. Tebow's playing way before anybody thought he should. They were talking 2 years before he should even take a snap, and here he is winding up starting games as a rookie and not embarrassing himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebluefood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What if they drafted a QB with the first pick and then 3 straight linemen with their next 3 picks? Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tris Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No doubt he has a long way to go, but those sound like typical rookie QB numbers. You can't judge stats for a rookie QB too harshly that's playing before he's really ready. Tebow's playing way before anybody thought he should. They were talking 2 years before he should even take a snap, and here he is winding up starting games as a rookie and not embarrassing himself. The popular assumption was Sam Bradford was not going to start out of the gate, nor was Matt Ryan. Both surprised by not only starting game one, but excelling. I would like a higher ceiling that "not embarrassing himself" to judge my rookie QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger187126 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The popular assumption was Sam Bradford was not going to start out of the gate, nor was Matt Ryan. Both surprised by not only starting game one, but excelling. I would like a higher ceiling that "not embarrassing himself" to judge my rookie QB. as a rookie bradford had his bottom dwelling team in position to make the playoffs. laugh at the division all you want, but green bay and new orleans aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The popular assumption was Sam Bradford was not going to start out of the gate, nor was Matt Ryan. Both surprised by not only starting game one, but excelling. I would like a higher ceiling that "not embarrassing himself" to judge my rookie QB. I would dispute that those were the popular assumptions. I think most people thought in the end, they were going to wind up starting early on. At least i wasn't surpised anyway. But whatever, we can disagree on that. But comparing Tebow to a QB chosen top 3 is dubious. Tebow had no business going in the first 3 rounds, let alone the first round. Josh McDaniels is an idiot. So you almost have to judge him differently, because the expectations were totally different. If I draft a QB in the top 5 or top 10, I'm expecting him to start right away, short of having a competent vet to keep the seat warm for a year. If AJ Feeley and Chris Redman were your options, Bradford and Ryan were always gonna start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demarqo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The popular assumption was Sam Bradford was not going to start out of the gate, nor was Matt Ryan. Both surprised by not only starting game one, but excelling. I would like a higher ceiling that "not embarrassing himself" to judge my rookie QB. Same arguments I made about Bradford are the same as I am hearing about Cam (except running). Look back at all the highlights of Bradford. I dare anyone to show me a highlight video that had him throwing to a second option more the 2 times in a particular video most of his receivers were wide open, and Bradford didn't run a pro-style O. and didn't even call audibles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rypien1191 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Bottom line, you don't spend a 1st round pick on a QB who MIGHT be the guy. You spend it on a QB you are SURE will be your guy for a long time. The difference between a 9 out of 10 vs. a 7 out of 10 on a QB scale is immensely different than the same difference for a lineman, LB, etc. Not as easy to make up for the shortcomings of a QB as it is for a linebacker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surferskin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Also, let the record show that Cam injured his back pretty significantly last night. He was getting x-rayed after the game and had to have a golf cart shuttle him from the conference room to the locker room and back. So, those that want to point out his play last night as a reason not to draft him...he played hurt and still won the game. Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonArtest15 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Same arguments I made about Bradford are the same as I am hearing about Cam (except running). Look back at all the highlights of Bradford. I dare anyone to show me a highlight video that had him throwing to a second option more the 2 times in a particular video most of his receivers were wide open, and Bradford didn't run a pro-style O. and didn't even call audibles. EXACTLY! This is why I was asking (sarcastically) about what offense Sam Bradford was running at Oklahoma. For as great and accurate Sam Bradford's arm is, there were just as many rumblings from GMs/Scouts who questioned his ability to read a defense, experience taking snaps from under center, etc etc. Sam turned out to be just fine....I don't get why people are writing Cam Newton off this quickly. Well, actually I do...and none of it is objective. Also, let the record show that Cam injured his back pretty significantly last night. He was getting x-rayed after the game and had to have a golf cart shuttle him from the conference room to the locker room and back. So, those that want to point out his play last night as a reason not to draft him...he played hurt and still won the game. Just sayin... And this is yet another good point.... I got a feeling that no matter what Cam Newton did last night there would be detractors. What can you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger187126 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Also, let the record show that Cam injured his back pretty significantly last night. He was getting x-rayed after the game and had to have a golf cart shuttle him from the conference room to the locker room and back. So, those that want to point out his play last night as a reason not to draft him...he played hurt and still won the game. Just sayin... lets get him a medal for being the only college qb to ever be hurt and win a game! surely his injury last night explains why he throws less passes than every qb you want to compare him to. if anything it's an implication that he puts his body on the line too much with his type of play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surferskin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lets get him a medal for being the only college qb to ever be hurt and win a game!surely his injury last night explains why he throws less passes than every qb you want to compare him to. if anything it's an implication that he puts his body on the line too much with his type of play. Hey, look...another black QB. Let's compare them!:beatdeadhorse: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnb123 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Drafting a QB's who succeeded in college solely because of physical skills scares the crap out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tris Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Same arguments I made about Bradford are the same as I am hearing about Cam (except running). Look back at all the highlights of Bradford. I dare anyone to show me a highlight video that had him throwing to a second option more the 2 times in a particular video most of his receivers were wide open, and Bradford didn't run a pro-style O. and didn't even call audibles. The problem with that line of thinking was that Bradford was never a threat to run, and therefore was forced into developing as a passer in way which Newton has not. As I showed before, Newton's run/pass ratio of nearly 1:1 reflect a QB who has a tendancy to look to make a play with his feet, something that is going to hamper him as a passer in the NFL. Also, there is a big difference in a QB who has attempted 893 passes in college, and one who has attempted 292. Those reps are important in the development as a passer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger187126 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey, look...another black QB. Let's compare them!:beatdeadhorse: wtf is wrong with you?! quit bringing up race. this has nothing to do with race. you toted being injured and still playing as some great thing that obviously makes him a good player. i showed you probably one of the best injured and still playing moments in college football and the first thing you say is i'm comparing them because of race? you're a ****ing moron. it's impossible to even comment on anything relating to cam newton without you hiding behind some imaginary race wall. i don't give two ****s what race a qb we draft is, i just want a guy who is NFL ready and doesn't have to be groomed for years to become serviceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.