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The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The Beal Era


BRAVEONAWARPATH
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1 minute ago, Fergasun said:

All you can do in the NBA is keep rolling dices to see if they come up Lucky-777s... 

 

Only people not dice rolling are the NBA finalists, GSW, and Nets?  

 

 

 

The Wiz are rolling the dice just to make the playoffs. Other teams are rolling the dice to win a championship

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5 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

20 million per year?  According the Hollinger's system that's a 50% overpay.  Don't understand why there is such a hot market for a player coming off an ACL injury.

What does those projections say about Powell, Robinson, and Trent.  They all got 18M.

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6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

20 million per year?  According the Hollinger's system that's a 50% overpay.  Don't understand why there is such a hot market for a player coming off an ACL injury.

In today's NBA Spencer probably is worth roughly 20m a year.

 

 

 

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New big three is about to happen!  lol

 

12 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

I keep reading that Kuzma and Harrell would be the moving pieces.  But if Dinwiddie gets $20M, couldn’t they package Bertans and Chandler Hutchison instead?


Dinwiddie 

Beal

Bertans

Kuzma

Harrell


If Unsled Jr  can get that lineup to play defense, the team should give him a ten year extension.  

 

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7 hours ago, Ball Security said:

 

 

This will absolutely happen.  Beal is going to squeeze every penny out of this organization & I don’t blame him.  Unbelievable the amount of $$ he could earn with these super Max contracts.

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Wizards have not gotten much bang for their buck when it comes to the players they've given max contracts too: Howard, Arenas (I think), Wall. I'd be hesitant to offer Beal a contract like the one in the tweet above. To me, max money should be reserved for players who you truly believe are indispensable and can get you to the promised land. I don't think Beal is at that level. I don't think superstar vs. superstar, he comes out on top often enough. Without Wall, he couldn't will his teams into the playoffs. With Westbrook, he returned to one and done.

 

Admittedly, it's a team sport and you can't lay that on his back. Admittedly also, I don't really know what I'm talking about when it comes to the NBA, but Beal seems to me to be a very good/near elite one dimensional player. I don't hear him in that conversation of players who elevate other guys, dominate games, and can put a team on his back. 

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^ Completely agreed.  He is a very good player, even great, but not at the level of brilliance that can dominate and win you a championship.  Guys like Giannis, Lebron, Doncic, Tatum deserve that type of dough.

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7 hours ago, Ball Security said:

What does those projections say about Powell, Robinson, and Trent.  They all got 18M.

 

His system had Powell at 13 M per year (but Hollinger predicted he'd get more based on his strong season and the fact that Portland dealt for him at the deadline and wouldn't want to let him walk), Robinson for 24 M per year, and Trent for 5 M per year.  He did expect Trent to go for at least twice that though, for similar reasons he expected Powell to go for more.

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35 minutes ago, Borgold said:

Wizards have not gotten much bang for their buck when it comes to the players they've given max contracts too: Howard, Arenas (I think), Wall. I'd be hesitant to offer Beal a contract like the one in the tweet above. To me, max money should be reserved for players who you truly believe are indispensable and can get you to the promised land. I don't think Beal is at that level. I don't think superstar vs. superstar, he comes out on top often enough. Without Wall, he couldn't will his teams into the playoffs. With Westbrook, he returned to one and done.

 

Admittedly, it's a team sport and you can't lay that on his back. Admittedly also, I don't really know what I'm talking about when it comes to the NBA, but Beal seems to me to be a very good/near elite one dimensional player. I don't hear him in that conversation of players who elevate other guys, dominate games, and can put a team on his back. 

 

The Wizards got great value out of the first max deals that Arenas and Wall signed, the problem was that Arenas had basically a career ending injury when he signed the second one and Wall broke down on his second one too.  They also got great value from the first max deal Beal signed, and the two year extension of it they got him to sign is what is currently keeping them afloat.

 

A max deal is not that exclusive of a club.  Basically every all star caliber player gets one, and virtually every team can afford to give out two max deals within the structure of their payroll without having to go into the luxury tax because max deals are generally set at around 30% of a team's total cap.  Beal is absolutely worth another max deal.  Whether he justifies it will come down to health, but that is always the risk with contracts like these.

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47 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

^ Completely agreed.  He is a very good player, even great, but not at the level of brilliance that can dominate and win you a championship.  Guys like Giannis, Lebron, Doncic, Tatum deserve that type of dough.

The first three guys I agree with but I wouldn't necessarily put Tatum that far ahead of Brad.

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45 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

^ Completely agreed.  He is a very good player, even great, but not at the level of brilliance that can dominate and win you a championship.  Guys like Giannis, Lebron, Doncic, Tatum deserve that type of dough.

 

Beal's value is similar to other virtuoso high efficiency/high volume scoring guards who give you nothing on defense like Curry, Lillard, Young, and Booker.  They're among the best scorers in the game, and they can almost single-handedly carry your offense during a playoff run.  But what's the common theme with all of them when they aren't surrounded by a great team full of spacers, defenders, and rebounders?  Lottery teams.  Play-in teams.  8 seeds that get bounced in the first round.

 

They're worth max money because what they can do on offense is incredibly valuable, particularly in the playoffs, when high level individual shot creation becomes worth its weight in gold.  But they can't contribute to a team's defense and rebounding like dominant forwards and centers can.  You have to build more carefully around them, and put great defensive wings beside them and frontcourt players behind them.  The Warriors did it around Curry and won multiple championships.  The Blazers and Hawks and Suns did it for one year and were rewarded with runs to at least their conference Finals.  We've never been able to do it around Beal and we have not been able to take advantage of his scoring.  It's why everyone in the world outside of this team and fanbase thinks we are wasting him and wants us to trade him.

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Perhaps they don’t have to pay anything in players.

 

GMs have done much worse things than turn an unavailable, maxed Wall contact into Dinwiddie, Kuzma, Harrell, Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Holliday and Isiah Todd.

 

I do think there are two many players and more moves to be made.

 

Dinwiddie, Holiday,

Beal, Caldwell-Pope

Kuzma, Bertans, Deni, Kispert, Hutchison 

Rui, Todd

Gafford, Harrell, Bryant

 

Also have 9.5 in MLE, correct?

 

 

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Oh Beal could definitely benefit from being surrounded by better players.  Taking some of the defensive focus off of him would do wonders for his game.  I just don't think he can lead a team - we have seen how he performs in crunch time over his career, not that great.  That is the mark of a great player imo.  He has certainly upped his driving game significantly over his career.  He can score without a doubt.  Can he do it in the playoffs and carry a team to a championship?  I dunno...certainly possible, I just don't see it, kind of like James Harden.  That's the difference between him and guys like Curry.

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https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/the-catalyst-assessing-why-spencer-dinwiddie-should-be-coveted-nba-free-agent

 

The Catalyst: Why Spencer Dinwiddie should be a coveted free agent

Dinwiddie is a premier advantage creator. His 2019-20 showing underlined his value to an offense, as he averaged 20.6 points, 6.8 assists and 3.5 rebounds on 54% True Shooting percentage. Kevin Durant’s year-long absence and Kyrie Irving’s injury struggles left the Brooklyn Nets low on initiators. That thrust Dinwiddie into an outsized lead ball-handling role, though one that enabled him to exhibit the depths of his entire game and illuminate why he’d provide considerable impact to potential suitors moving forward.

 

According to Synergy, only 11 players logged more isolation possessions than him in 2019-20. Despite the mammoth volume (205 possessions), he ranked in the 69th percentile in points per possession (0.951), which was seventh among the 12 players meeting that threshold. James Harden, Damian Lillard, Kawhi Leonard, Luka Doncic, Chris Paul and Jayson Tatum were the only players to finish above him. Dinwiddie blends both usage and production in a manner emulated by a select number of preeminent offensive orchestrators. 

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4 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

Oh Beal could definitely benefit from being surrounded by better players.  Taking some of the defensive focus off of him would do wonders for his game.  I just don't think he can lead a team - we have seen how he performs in crunch time over his career, not that great.  That is the mark of a great player imo.  He has certainly upped his driving game significantly over his career.  He can score without a doubt.  Can he do it in the playoffs and carry a team to a championship?  I dunno...certainly possible, I just don't see it, kind of like James Harden.  That's the difference between him and guys like Curry.

 

It's not really about finding other scorers to take the defensive focus off of him.  Beal's such a good scorer that you don't have to do that, all you have to do is find shooters for him to kick it out to and rim runners to catch those entry passes and finish.  Beal's gravity is such that he'll warp defenses whenever he's on the floor, and the way you take advantage of that is by getting good shotmakers to can the open looks.  That we've been able to do.  It's why our scoring has been so good even though the team as a whole is bad.

 

Basketball is like football in that it has three equal phases to the game: offense, defense, and the transition phases when possession of the ball is determined.  Because NBA contract money gets spent on offense, it diminishes the attention to the value the other two phases of the game get.  But they're of equal value in determining wins.  It's a market inefficiency where you essentially don't have to pay as much for defense and rebounding as you do for scoring.  And there are a ton of reasons for this such as scoring is more stable year to year and less dependent on age and athleticism and styles of volume scoring change in the playoffs, etc.  But nevermind that, if you want to build a great team, then you need to be better than the majority of the league in all three of the phases of the game, or maybe totally dominant in like two of them like the Warriors were during their recent run (offense/defense) or the Spurs were in their run in the aughts (defense/rebounding).

 

The reason why forwards like LeBron and Giannis--and to a somewhat lesser extent Durant--are so valuable and capable of carrying teams to high seeds on their own, is because they give you way above delta value in all three phases of the game.  You don't have to be as lucky or great at building around them to run a great offense and defense and to be able to clean the glass because they are doing such a huge amount of all of that on their own.  But guards like Beal and Curry and Harden don't really give you anything on defense or on the glass.  What they give you on offense is enormous, but to find balance you need a Draymond Green and Klay Thomspon and Andrew Bogut leading a dominant defense  around them.

 

The value is even more disproportionate with dominant bigs.  There is a reason why the surest path to a championship in basketball history has always been to find a transcendent 7 footer.  Nobody has more individual impact on the glass and on defense than them, and when you also get dominant offense from that spot as well, then you've got everything for foundation in one player.  If you get them a great perimeter player to help run the offense then the odds are you're going to win a title at some point.

 

Anyway, if you want to see why the team can't win with Beal, look at the front court.  Developmental or soft bigs who don't rebound or play defense.  Look at the wings.  Developmental players who can't stop the ball, and in a lot of cases, who can't space the floor.  The team has spent all of its other money and premium resources during Beal's career here at the PG position.  They add redundant value on offense while getting absolutely nothing on defense or on the glass.  And I fear that they are continuing the cycle with committing a big contract and potentially other players to signing Dinwiddie.

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sounds like I'm in the minority who says "embrace being terrible" and don't overpay for anybody this year. Dinwiddie or anyone else. Trade for a PG under a short term deal? Sure. Wait till the Free Agency push is over and sign the scraps to 1 year deals. Even better. Don't do this halfway. 

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3 minutes ago, @SkinsGoldPants said:

sounds like I'm in the minority who says "embrace being terrible" and don't overpay for anybody this year. Dinwiddie or anyone else. Trade for a PG under a short term deal? Sure. Wait till the Free Agency push is over and sign the scraps to 1 year deals. Even better. Don't do this halfway. 

 

You aren't alone. 

 

All Shep is doing is building another mediocre team. The Wiz will maybe make the playoffs via the play in game then be picking 15th again. 

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  • BRAVEONAWARPATH changed the title to The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The Beal Era

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