The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[JMS]

I'm here in Charlotte and I've heard alot of conflicting reports as to who they will take. I've heard Drummond one week, then it goes to MKG, then Robinson. I'm just not sure who the hell they want at this point.

Earnie is saying in the newspaper today that the guy they take won't need to give them serious minutes immediately. That they are going to bring him along slow... Which I took to mean Drummond was the pick... Although the rest of the article was more about Beal and they didn't even mention Drummond. I think if they take a guard or small forward you would expect to get more minutes out of him year 1. Big men are more projects..

Course the Wiz have had a lot of projects and none have really come threw.

[nuposse87]

If Wall shows up with a jump shot and Beal proves to be the shooter we saw in the tournament as opposed to the shooter he was for three months his freshman year the team might not be that bad. If however Wall still can't shoot and Beal isn't the great shooter people think he'll be... this team is going to be frighteningly hard to watch.

BTW: About Beal's dribbling skills.

:shutup:

After he weighed in at around the same weight as Rivers despite looking much larger I suspected he was off balance in terms of his build (top heavy). Watching him dribble in that video you can plainly see that he is. He's leaning ahead of his legs on the dribble and he's clearly off balance on stops and changes of direction. That would also explain his lack of explosiveness and apparent athleticism on the court.

IMO he's been working the "get women" muscle groups a lot more than the core and legs that everyone hates doing.

uhh that mix seems more like a mix of his bad finishes at the rims coupled in with a few charges than an indictment on his handles. He doesn't look awful, and it definitely looks fixable. Anyone can find a video illustrating the flaws of a player, beal is still the best SG prospect in the class despite his shortcomings. Rivers is a rich mans J. Crawford, at best.

Back to our dilemma. If ted's blog post is indicative that we're not done dealing then there is some hope for us. Houston might be willing to part with Kevin Martin because they may be in need of a center. Okafor is still an upgrade over Dalmembert. Martin also expires next season so we would open up some FA opportunity. I would throw in Jordan Crawford just to get him off the team. Wall plays way better without ball dominant SGs. Martin is a good catch and shoot SG and could help Beal a little in that sense.

Ariza is the contract that will be hard to move. Our best hope is that he actually plays well, and opts out of his final year of his contract because he thinks he can get a better one.

[JMS]

Title contender in 2014? HIGHLY doubt it. I just want this team to keep trending upwards. Ultimate goal is to be a title contender in due time. Let's make the playoffs first LOL. Like I said, I think that's a realistic goal with this current crop of guys.

You need to be in a position to attract a big named free agent. Which let's face it, the Wizards never will be in that position. LA, Boston, Miami... not DC. If we are going to have a contender, we will have to get our stud in the draft. Wall is a support player, everybody else on this team are role players. I'm not seeing that one indespensible guy. Maybe one of the youngsters will grow into that role, more likely not. That's why I advocate for Drummond if he's there. I also advocate for separating out player development from the coaching staff. If we miss on drumond that will be too bad, but if we don't take a shot we will never have a shot at getting a truely dominant inside presence. No such player will ever come here in free agency.

[Destino]

uhh that mix seems more like a mix of his bad finishes at the rims coupled in with a few charges than an indictment on his handles. He doesn't look awful, and it definitely looks fixable. Anyone can find a video illustrating the flaws of a player, beal is still the best SG prospect in the class despite his shortcomings. Rivers is a rich mans J. Crawford, at best.

Any video seeking to show handles is going to focus on plays where a lot of dribbling is involved (attacking the rim). Also note that the video isn't a low light video (it's telling however that you thought it was), it follows this paragraph on his swishscout profile:

Ball Handling: For a natural off guard, Beal handles the ball well and can operate as a secondary ball handler bringing the ball up the floor. He’s not an ankle breaker with quick strike moves to routinely beat his man off the dribble, but he’s decisive, dribbling with purpose. He’s an aggressive driver who will go straight-line when given an open lane coming off screens. Has a nice crossover, hesitation, and step back move with the ability to isolate and create his own shot, but won’t dribble more than he needs to. Will force some drives into defenders and traffic around the basket, but has the physical frame to handle contact and finish at the basket. Solid job of drawing fouls in his freshman season, getting to the line 4.7 times per game.

http://swishscout.com/?page_id=822

He doesn't look "awful" but he's far from good and I agree that it's fixable. Has to start with him being balanced out physically because he's clearly not. I was not in any way saying that Rivers was better BTW. I was using him purely for comparison purposes in terms of build.

Edited June 21, 2012 by Destino

[Warhead36]

Wall will handle the ball. Just need Beal to be a knockdown cold blooded shooter.

[Rocky21]

As far as on the court, The Wiz are a better team now than they were before making this trade.

It seems like what people are ****ing about is the cap flexibility we gave up. Well DC is not exactly a top free agent destination now is it?

I still can't help but feel we aren't done making moves yet either. Just have to chill for now and see how things play out.

[Warhead36]

Remember, Wittman and Grunfeld are both signed on till 2014. So we'll see how the team does till then. If we suck, which is a possibility, we'll completely clean house at that point I would guess.

[Going Commando]

We definitely improved the team, but to what end?

Best case scenario for this roster is a 7th or 8th seed in the East. With little to no flexibility to substantially improve the roster the next 2 years.

In all honesty, I would rather be terrible than to be stuck in basketball purgatory.

We're punting the next two seasons with lowered expectations. All we want during that time is to be competitive. Hopefulyl competitive enough to get John and the other 2010 rookies we want to keep to stick around.

They are the bottom line goal behind this deal.

I've been reading about the deal to get some sense of the logic behind it on our side. This is the best I can figure it:

This move was clearly a financial ploy based on a couple of assumptions/goals. If you share those same assumptions/goals as EG and Ted, then the move makes perfect sense.

First assumption: Shard MUST go this offseason and we will not amnesty him because we're planning to use it on Blatche. Thus the only ways to get rid of him are buy out or trade.

Second assumption: We will need a ton of cap space to resign Wall/Seraphin/Booker/Crawford in the summer of 2014--i.e., this group is worth clearing space for to stick with.

Third assumption: we will not spend past the cap on our salaries to trigger our cap exceptions if we use free agency to fill out the roster--we can't spend enough on free agents to hit the luxury tax to trigger the rookie and minimum salary exceptions.

That last one is confusing, so I'll try and break it down the way I understand it (which is probably imperfect):

-We're on the hook for 9 contracts next season excluding Shard. That total comes to about 36 million in contracts. Add a hold of over 3 million for the third overall pick--we can't trigger the rookie exception for that contract unless we are already over the cap when we sign him.

--So if we're not over the cap, we've got 39 million in salary commitment and roughly 19 million in real cap space excluding Shard, for ten contracts.

-- Roster requirements mean we must have 12 players under contract. That means two more minimum contracts at least which is about 2 million more towards the cap (you don't get this exception unless you're over the cap already). 19 million in cap space becomes 17 million in workable room.

-- Also, take away the mid level exception from our real cap space since you have to be over the cap to use it. That's like 5 and a half million in spending room. I also seriously doubt we could get anyone this summer who'd be worth the mid level exception. So we have like 12 million in workable cap space. But Shard's buyout is for 13.6 million...

That means buying him out puts us up against the cap or over the cap either way we approach FA--with one more roster spot to fill.

The only way to fill those roster spots with decent veterans on short term contracts was through trade or by signing very bottom barrel free agents

The FO was pessimistic in their ability to sign two free agents of equal quality to Okafor and Ariza for two year deals. This deal gave them two rotational players for one (who wasn't even really in the rotation any more anyway). Now they are at eleven contracts after amnesty clausing Blatche and can sign the second rounder to fill out the roster without ever having to dip into free agency and deal with the cap/exceptions. This was expedient from that roster building perspective.

The FO was right to be pessimistic in their ability to sign free agents for two year contracts as good as Ariza or Okafor this summer. We all know that's simply unrealistic for this summer. They'd have had to commit to more years or tons more dollars than they were comfortable with.

Remember, the bottom line goal of the FO here is to keep the deck as clear as possible for the summer of 2014 when the 2010 first rounders become eligible for RFA. It's four at once, and the FO must believe this core represents our future. Taking on new players (excepting draft picks) for more than a two year commitment is unacceptable for them.

The other goal is to become competitive in the mean time between now and that summer. They want to make this an attractive place for Wll/Seraphin/Crawford/Booker to return to during negotiations. A season or two of winning absolutely helps that. So they're making the quickest and most expedient short term deals for this to come about:

1.) preserving continuity of vision and coaching in extending Ernie and Wittman without a search.

2.) dealing for two vet rotation players whose deals come off the books in time, both of whom fill tertiary needs when healthy and are good enough locker room presences not to **** up our newly found chemistry. They're good enough to help, but not too good to where we need to start playing them a bunch and change our building plans to incorporate them.

I've got a couple of problems with the logic though:

1.) Why was it impossible to pry #10 away in the deal since we were doing New Orleans such a favor? They clearly won the deal. If not #10, why not a future first? They should have included something to incentivize this deal for us. They weren't the only team we could have dealt with to take on a couple of bad contracts.

2.) Why is this FO assuming that Wall/Seraphin/Booker/Crawford are worth building around in this way? Have they really shown us enough so far to merit this kind of faith?

3.) Why did we have to go out and get two vet rotation players who don't solve our shooting or rebounding problems? Why couldn't we have dealt for shooters?

4.) Why haven't we made more of an effort to acquire shooters period? This includes going after low level free agents.

5.) Why did this deal have to get done before the draft? That second rounder is window dressing, it could just as easily been agreed to on draft day after we'd already made the damn pick at three. If we're planning on drafting Beal to solve some of our shooting problems, it's such an unnecessary risk making this deal before the draft.

Then again, Ernie did say this deal doesn't effect our plans in the draft whatsoever. We could still go ahead and take MKG or TRob or Drummond at 3. Then we'll have no shooters and no real flexibility to add some good ones for two years. Ugh.

There is just so much about this deal that makes me uneasy. The only way I see this working out well for us is if several gambles break our way:

1.) That Ariza and Okafor stay healthy enough to make a big difference in our defense (what they were brought here for from a basketball perspective)

2.) That we are able to draft Beal and he works out big for us and solves a huge portion of our shooting problems in the starting lineup.

3.) That we can find another shooter out of the 32nd pick. I'm praying we get a Hollis Thompson or DeRon Lamb here. Or if we're super lucky, maybe Jared Sullinger slips all of the way to here and we get a stretch four who can shoot threes and also solves a lot of our rebounding problems. This would be too good to be true.

4.) That guys like John Wall and Jan Vesely make the leap as offensive players and learn to shoot.

Some of those hopes are unlikely. It wouldn't surprise me at all if none of them came true.

[RonArtest15]

As far as on the court, The Wiz are a better team now than they were before making this trade.

It seems like what people are ****ing about is the cap flexibility we gave up. Well DC is not exactly a top free agent destination now is it?

I still can't help but feel we aren't done making moves yet either. Just have to chill for now and see how things play out.

Agreed. I think there are more moves to be made.

*SM...Dell Demps said the #10 was never in play. For a team that's rebuilding in New Orleans, giving up draft picks - especially LOTTERY draft picks, would be pretty dumb. Our best bet would be to buy a late round 1st from someone who is selling.

I have a feeling that either Booker/Crawford will be moved. Kevin Martin makes sense if Houston is willing to trade. That way, we can draft MKG

*edit*

Speculative lineups from BF:

Star-divide

Scenario 1: Draft Bradley Beal

Rotation

PG - Wall, Mack

SG - Crawford, Beal

SF - Ariza, Singleton

PF - Nene, Booker, Vesely

C - Okafor, Seraphin, Booker

Scenario 2: Draft Thomas Robinson

Rotation

PG - Wall, Mack

SG - Ariza, Crawford, (cheap free agent)

SF - Singleton, Ariza, (cheap free agent)

PF - Nene, Booker, Robinson, Vesely

C - Okafor, Seraphin, Booker

Scenario 3: Draft Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Rotation

PG - Wall, Mack

SG - Ariza, Crawford, (cheap free agent)

SF - Singleton, Kidd-Gilchrist, Ariza

PF - Nene, Booker, Vesely

C - Okafor, Seraphin, Booker

more in the link:

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/6/21/3105701/possible-lineups-who-becomes-the-odd-man-out#storyjump

Edited June 21, 2012 by RonArtest15

[StillUnknown]

Agreed. I think there are more moves to be made.

*SM...Dell Demps said the #10 was never in play. For a team that's rebuilding in New Orleans, giving up draft picks - especially LOTTERY draft picks, would be pretty dumb. Our best bet would be to buy a late round 1st from someone who is selling.

I have a feeling that either Booker/Crawford will be moved. Kevin Martin makes sense if Houston is willing to trade. That way, we can draft MKG

It was widely thought across the league that N.O. would have to part with #10 in order to move one of the contracts. Instead, we let them move BOTH deals while keeping their pick. We got bent over.

Of course Demps is going to say the 10th pick was never in play now, he found his sucker.

Edited June 21, 2012 by StillUnknown

[nuposse87]

I don't see any chance of us drafting Robinson now. It's either Beal or MKG. If it's MKG you can bet there will be assets moved in order to acquire shooters. Even though we have tipped our hand CHA's main focus is to improve their team. When you are a team as bad as they are, their team's future isn't worth gambling by trying to extort us. I think it is pretty safe to say we are taking beal unless we flip pieces for other prospective SGs. Since to Randy's credit he actually plays the best players, I could see an opening day roster built like this:

Wall/Mack

Beal/JC

Singleton/Ariza

Nene/Booker/Vesley

Seraphin/Okafor

I would look to trade Booker+Ariza for like....Marvin Williams? At the very least he is a decent starting SF. Can knock down corner threes and plays comparable Man D.

[RonArtest15]

It was widely thought across the league that N.O. would have to part with #10 in order to move one of the contracts. Instead, we let them move BOTH deals while keeping their pick. We got bent over.

Of course Demps is going to say the 10th pick was never in play now, he found his sucker.

I just don't get how that makes any sense? Two things:

1) Why SHOULD the #10 be in play SPECIFICALLY for New Orleans?

2) How do we know that EG didn't ask about the #10 to begin with?

It's almost at the point that we should be questioning why Grunfeld didn't inquire about acquiring the #1 overall in this deal as well.

We didn't get fleeced and BOTH teams will walk away better from this deal.

[StillUnknown]

I just don't get how that makes any sense? Two things:

1) Why SHOULD the #10 be in play SPECIFICALLY for New Orleans?

Okafor & Ariza's contract were toxic for what they wanted to moving forward. They wanted to cut salary pure & simple. They didn't give up anything they wanted to keep.

2) How do we know that EG didn't ask about the #10 to begin with?

We didn't get fleeced and BOTH teams will walk away better from this deal.

If Ernie asked about #10, it should've been a breaking point. No #10, no deal.

An injury prone big man & a wing that can't shoot add very little to our roster.

[No Excuses]

Remember, Wittman and Grunfeld are both signed on till 2014. So we'll see how the team does till then. If we suck, which is a possibility, we'll completely clean house at that point I would guess.

It's a shame that what should have happened in 2009, will likely happen in 2014.

Destino was right. Ernie is contagious. The fact that people are OK with a loser like Wittman coaching this team speaks for itself. The loser mentality is embedded into this fan base.

Can't sign FA's. Can't attract coaches. Can't develop young players. Wonder whose fault it is? I'm completely demoralized by the state of this team. Ted was gifted the #1 pick on a platter and he's pissed it away imo. Just a terrible terrible job for the rebuild.

Edited June 21, 2012 by No Excuses

[skinfan2k]

Ernie destroyed every franchise he's been too.

[Going Commando]

Okafor & Ariza's contract were toxic for what they wanted to moving forward. They wanted to cut salary pure & simple. They didn't give up anything they wanted to keep.

If Ernie asked about #10, it should've been a breaking point. No #10, no deal.

An injury prone big man & a wing that can't shoot add very little to our roster.

I agree with you. New Orleans had to get rid of Ariza and Okafor deals to clear salary because they now get the flexibility to pursue FAs AND match any offer for Eric Gordon.

The whole point of this deal was to allow them to keep Gordon and keep some flexibility. We completely facilitated that.

Keeping Gordon is far more valuable to them than keeping that #10 pick. Who else was out there with the salary to get rid of both Ariza and Okafor at once with a buyout contract? I don't think there was a single other team they could have dealt with to make it work, they'd have had to orchestrate some sort of three team deal.

Knowing that, we had much more bargaining power than we exerted. We should have gotten that 10th pick. Or we should have gotten next year's first from them, whichever they were more willing to deal.

---------- Post added June-21st-2012 at 02:31 PM ----------

Throw in the tenth pick and this becomes a good trade. It completely takes the sting out of losing on an imperfect deal.

---------- Post added June-21st-2012 at 02:45 PM ----------

You know why our cap flexibility is so screwy right now and we had to make trades like this?

That goddamn Gilbert Arenas contract extension. We're still paying for that.

Only Ernie gets to oversee disastrous, franchise crippling mistakes, and then still be in charge when the team is finally done paying for them...

Ernie is this sports executive equivalent of this man:

[SuperBash]

@stevekylerNBA

Also told that prior to making the deal with New Orleans... Washington and Portland talked extensively about swapping 3 for 6 and 11

[nuposse87]

@stevekylerNBA

Also told that prior to making the deal with New Orleans... Washington and Portland talked extensively about swapping 3 for 6 and 11

we need a valued player at this point. Outside of the top 5, the talent level drops off considerably and you are way less likely to find a star player. At best Ariza and Okafor can amount to be nice complimentary players, but we shouldn't trade our 3rd pick now, as it is our best chance to draft a star player, except Harrison Bust.

Edited June 21, 2012 by nuposse87

[RonArtest15]

Okafor & Ariza's contract were toxic for what they wanted to moving forward. They wanted to cut salary pure & simple. They didn't give up anything they wanted to keep.

If Ernie asked about #10, it should've been a breaking point. No #10, no deal.

An injury prone big man & a wing that can't shoot add very little to our roster.

So, let's have you play GM for right now....REALISTICALLY, what do you think could have been done through the draft/trades/FA that would have been better than (best case scenario) a lineup of Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor?

I swear...there isn't one deal or FA signing out there that would have made this fanbase happy. Yea, I get Grunfeld has done more harm than good in his time here in DC...this wasn't one of those types of moves. I think it is actually going to pay dividends in a few seasons for us.

[Going Commando]

we need a valued player at this point. Outside of the top 5, the talent level drops off considerably and you are way less likely to find a star player. At best Ariza and Okafor can amount to be nice complimentary players, but we should trade our 3rd pick now, as it is our best chance to draft a star player, except Harrison Bust.

Okafor & Ariza for Shard gives us one less roster spot. Makes more sense to keep the third pick now than trade it down for two guys less likely to make an early impact, oneof which might be tricky to work into our rotations.

I'm in favor of a ten man rotation generally. I'm having a hard time seeing who the odd man out is. Probably someone like Booker unfortunately.

We need to go ahead and deal either him or Singleton if this deal is pushing them to the bench.

[SuperBash]

Someone needs to make a gif with Ernie Grunfeld. Have some sunglasses go over his eye then it says, DEAL WITH IT.

[StillUnknown]

So, let's have you play GM for right now....REALISTICALLY, what do you think could have been done through the draft/trades/FA that would have been better than (best case scenario) a lineup of Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor?

I swear...there isn't one deal or FA signing out there that would have made this fanbase happy. Yea, I get Grunfeld has done more harm than good in his time here in DC...this wasn't one of those types of moves. I think it is actually going to pay dividends in a few seasons for us.

If we drafted Beal, I make a run a Illyasova. He's not a big name, but he would be a good fit based on our needs. He probably commands 7-8mil per, but I'd be comfortable with that.

If we drafted MKG, I got after Illyasova still, but also Gerald Green or another shooting 2 guard.

I would much rather have gone full bore after Illyasova and been content with him & our draft pick as opposed to Okafor & Ariza.

I realize the common train of thought is that "nobody wants to come here" but part of the job of the GM is selling the destination, Ilyasova & Green are not huge names, he should at least be capable of bringing in one of the two.

[No Excuses]

.REALISTICALLY, what do you think could have been done through the draft/trades/FA that would have been better than (best case scenario) a lineup of Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor?

This argument always gets tossed out on message boards and it's always a ridiculous one.

We don't know what he could have done because we don't work in a front office. But we know what he DID do. And it kind of stinks, and his record over the years shows that he's more likely to make the wrong move than the right one.

You can say this EVERY time a GM makes a move. Hey Ernie Grunfeld just traded the #5 pick for Mike Miller and Randy Foye. How do you not know that something better was on the table? The next year, the #5 pick turns out to be Ray Allen for a much lesser prospect. A few years ago Kwame Brown had a big expiring contract. The Lakers turned it into Pau Gasol. We get Emeka Okafor. (The really funny thing about this is that the same year, Antawn Jamison had a much bigger expiring which we could have possibly used as well).

Someone is always getting the best out of him. Whether he's bidding against himself for DeShawn Stevenson, signing and overpaying for Darius Songaila, trading lottery picks, destroying cap clearing trade chips. this is how the Ernie excuse making works:

1. Abe did it.

2. Ted Leonsis wants him to do it.

3. Oh yeah, pfft what would you have done???

Edited June 21, 2012 by No Excuses

[nuposse87]

Okafor & Ariza for Shard gives us one less roster spot. Makes more sense to keep the third pick now than trade it down for two guys less likely to make an early impact, oneof which might be tricky to work into our rotations.

I'm in favor of a ten man rotation generally. I'm having a hard time seeing who the odd man out is. Probably someone like Booker unfortunately.

We need to go ahead and deal either him or Singleton if this deal is pushing them to the bench.

meant to say *shouldn't deal the 3rd pic. We're thinking the same here. Booker has injury issues that need to be considered which is why I would consider dealing him. I still think we need to call up ATL and orchestrate something like... Ariza+32nd pick+Mack for M. Williams. Williams is a far better player, while he is a bust for being a 2nd over all pick he is by no means a bad player. He also doesn't have a Player option on his contract. I'm willing to give up the 32nd pick because we can buy another pick back in the 2nd round if there is someone we really want there.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

So, let's have you play GM for right now....REALISTICALLY, what do you think could have been done through the draft/trades/FA that would have been better than (best case scenario) a lineup of Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor?

I swear...there isn't one deal or FA signing out there that would have made this fanbase happy. Yea, I get Grunfeld has done more harm than good in his time here in DC...this wasn't one of those types of moves. I think it is actually going to pay dividends in a few seasons for us.

That's what I'm saying...we are a suck ass abyss of a franchise right now...we can't attract talented FAs and we don't have the pieces to trade for good players...we couldn't have a third pure **** season (that was probably the business thinking) so we tried to get a few veterans and are praying to God that John Wall takes that big leap this year. Gerald Green and ppl like that don't wanna take a FA deal with a team that has a -78 chance of making the playoffs