The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[CRobi21]

 

[Going Commando]

The Pelicans have exactly what we need in return for Beal.  If we can get the bulk of that Lakers draft pick haul from them for Beal, we need to do it.

[TradeTheBeal!]

As usual, Steve is right.

 

TradeTheBeal!

[@DCGoldPants]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

The Pelicans have exactly what we need in return for Beal.  If we can get the bulk of that Lakers draft pick haul from them for Beal, we need to do it.

 

Agreed.

 

Should be attractive to New Orleans also. A young player in his prime who took on a leadership role recently.

 

Should also be attractive to other teams who don't want New Orleans getting Beal.

 

[Renegade7]

The smart thing is to accept our cap and talent situation is f'd and just load up on young talent for when Walls contract expires.  Two things, it's clear Ted doesnt want to rebuild and we are terrible at developing talent.  I cant help but feel screwed either way and just hope for the best.

[bearrock]

Don't we need to have this decision, the most important decision in terms of direction of the franchise for the next half a decade, be made by a full time GM?  Or have we conceded that Sheppard is only waiting for a new set of business cards?

[Hersh]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

The Pelicans have exactly what we need in return for Beal.  If we can get the bulk of that Lakers draft pick haul from them for Beal, we need to do it.

 

There should be a bidding war for Beal. Lots of teams would be interested in him. Especially with injuries to Thomspon and Durant. Hopefully the Wiz are competent enough to get that going soon. 

[Warhead36]

I want more than just the #4 pick for Beal. Beal is just entering his prime, still very young, on a good contract, and has expressed no desire to leave unlike other stars. We have good leverage.

[Going Commando]

44 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I want more than just the #4 pick for Beal. Beal is just entering his prime, still very young, on a good contract, and has expressed no desire to leave unlike other stars. We have good leverage.

 

I would want those future picks and swaps too.

[StillUnknown]

 

 

Katz is pretty damn definitive that we will not be drafting Bol because of injury and personality issues

Edited June 18, 2019 by StillUnknown

[Hersh]

It really is amazing what a dumpster fire Ted is as an owner. 3 days before the draft and they still have an interim GM. 

[StillUnknown]

8 minutes ago, Hersh said:

It really is amazing what a dumpster fire Ted is as an owner. 3 days before the draft and they still have an interim GM. 

 

part of firing Grunfeld when they did was to supposedly get a head start on the search for the next GM

 

[Hersh]

2 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

 

part of firing Grunfeld when they did was to supposedly get a head start on the search for the next GM

 

 

Kawhi is awesome.

 

It's been two and a half months. You just cannot wait for the Toronto GM unless you are 100 percent sure he is coming. Which I still don't get why he would leave that city and situation for a terrible situation in DC. 

 

 

[StillUnknown]

2 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

Kawhi is awesome.

 

It's been two and a half months. You just cannot wait for the Toronto GM unless you are 100 percent sure he is coming. Which I still don't get why he would leave that city and situation for a terrible situation in DC. 

 

 

 

i need more than the assurances of Ted & his people. They thought Connely was a done deal.

[Hersh]

10 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

 

i need more than the assurances of Ted & his people. They thought Connely was a done deal.

 

I would think that a competent owner has a deal effectively worked out with the agent before the visit even takes place. In other words, years and salary agreed to along with definitive role. Just need the signature. 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Hersh

[Going Commando]

9 hours ago, StillUnknown said:

Katz is pretty damn definitive that we will not be drafting Bol because of injury and personality issues

 

I 100% get this mindset.  That's where I was when I first started delving into Bol.  We don't have the kind of culture that can handle entitlement or laziness.

 

But then I saw this and it changed my mind:

 

 

We're not getting better upside than this kid at #9.  Hitting a home run on a pick like this is how you find your way to a franchise player despite not having premium assets.  So the optimist in me would hope for the best if we draft Bol.

 

Wish we had a better culture and track record so we could go after troubled talent like this.

[@DCGoldPants]

I'd give the Pelicans Beal for Hart, Ingram and some draft picks. **** could be this years' #4 and their best pick next year. Or those players and both picks next year with their better pick the year after that. Getting a SG and a SF to start and probably a PG or C with your draft pick. That's nice. 

 

I don't care if Ball is talented. I don't want that drama around this franchise that is too fragile to withstand it. Actually, I want the Pelicans to take Howard and/or Mahinmi also. 

[Going Commando]

Listening to that Katz podcast.  At the point where he talks about Thomas Bryant's market we get sign #2,482 that the NBA salary cap system is a monstrosity, as even professionals covering the team have a hard time with all of the nuance it creates.  Bryant's market is effected by his unusual status as a non qualifying veteran and restricted free agent.  He's only got two years of veterancy, and he didn't clear waivers when we acquired him.  So there are a couple of weird limits on his salary:

 

First off, the absolute highest he can make from somebody else is the MLE and it has to be for at least two years.  This effectively gives us a spending limit, because why would we pay more than what anyone else would have to?

 

Second, if we are over the cap when we negotiate with him, and if he doesn't get a better offer from anywhere else that we can match, then the highest we can offer him is 120% of his previous salary and a two year deal.

 

Thus it is in our interest to wait to negotiate with him and see if he gets any offers.  His cap hold will not be big.  We can see if a market for him materializes.  If it doesn't, we can fill out our roster and then offer him the two year bargain deal and put off paying him for at least two more summers.

 

So yeah, basically he's either going to be dirt cheap, or he'll cost the MLE for the next two seasons no matter what.  The only monkey wrench is in a potential three or four year deal where a team backloads the crap out of an offer sheet like what happened with Tyler Johnson.  If that happens, I'd congratulate Thomas Bryant and let him walk.

[Fergasun]

Trade Beal?!?! You guys are nuts.

He's a stud.

[bearrock]

8 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

Trade Beal?!?! You guys are nuts.

He's a stud.

 

I tend to agree with this.  You can pick high in multiple drafts and still not get anyone near the quality of Beal.  Seeing as how DC is not likely to be a premier free agent destination anytime in the near future, most reasonable path forward for a good team/contender in the next 4 years is Wall comes back and remakes his game based on his B-ball IQ and playmaking (oh lord if he could develop an above average long range game, but that's like hitting the lottery at this point).  Beal takes another step forward to become a 1.5 on a contender caliber (arguably, he's pretty close now).  Hit a homerun in the draft who can become a legit number 1 in 4 years.  Then you could have the drafted superstar as #1, Beal as number 2, Wall coming off his super max with a game that aged well as a facilitator.  That plus a few nice role players in the other drafts would make this team into a contender.

 

The only reason to trade Beal would be if he makes it clear that he's not signing an extension and wants to hit free agency.  But I think you can make that decision next offseason unless you get whale of a package for him now.

[Going Commando]

Beal is a dominant creative scorer, but he makes almost no impact on wins and losses.  We got Beal's best season of his career and still lost over 50 games.

 

When you set out to build a team, you have to first start by breaking basketball down into it's three fundamental parts:

 

1 - Offense

2 - Defense

3 - The part between offense and defense, which is rebounding and other forms of gaining possession of 50/50 balls.

 

NBA tend to focus only on offense, but each of these three parts are equally valuable and impactful for determining the outcomes of games.

 

Thus to build a good team, you have to lay a strong foundation in all three parts of the game.  This means acquiring players who give you added value relative to the average at their positions in these parts.

 

The problem with Beal is that, even though he gives you a solid amount of added value for your offensive foundation, he does absolutely nothing to create/improve your foundation for defense and rebounding.  If Beal is your foundation player, then he's going to take a lot of teambuilding resources to acquire and keep.  Thus If you're devoting all of these resources to build around him, then that means you will need to be getting tremendous value from your front court players to lay those strong foundations for defense and rebounding, or else you're not going to win.

 

This is the common lot for pure guards.  It's why teams built around guards rarely contend, and it's why teams with good guards and trash front court players like ours don't win at all.

 

Now contrast that team building value of Beal with the very best players in the league: LeBron, Durant, Kawhi, and Giannis.  Those guys are giving you huge added value in all three parts of the game.  Now I know LeBron has declined on defense, and it's why he hasn't won as much the past three years, but prime LeBron was an awesome foundation for defense.  Those guys giving you so much added value for each of your foundations--in a single max contract slot--is a HUGE part of the reason why their teams have won seven of the last eight championships.

 

And it's also the reason that, historically, like 70% of all the pre-illegal defense rule change NBA championships were won by teams with centers like Shaq and Hakeem and Duncan and Kareem.

 

If we trade Beal and end up with the resources to build a strong foundation for defense and rebounding, we will get better and win more games even if doing so hollows out our offensive foundation.

 

That's why we should trade him if doing so gets us those resources.

 

I would also say that Beal is a good but not great foundation for offense.  He is a dominant shotmaker with good creativity, and that has certainly proven to be a very valuable type of guard to have in the playoffs, where the value of breaking down defenses and creating your own look is magnified.  But he's a much lesser player at creating for others than he is for himself, and thus doesn't make his teammates better in the way that the best offensive players typically do.  It's the difference in offensive value between him and John, and it explains a lot of the reason why a healthy John put our floor at about 40 wins whereas our floor is like 30 wins with a healthy Beal.  John's 20 & 10 > Beal's 25 & 5.  John is creating at least five additional points per game just based off that math, but it's more than that when you break down the difference in all of the threes and free throw line opportunities each of them create for teammates.

 

Anyway, this isn't going to come up before the draft because it's just unrealistic to expect an interim GM like Sheppard to be empowered to trade Beal.  It's an unfortunate outcome from not settling our FO situation, and it will prolong our rebuilding process because we won't have as many assets in this draft.  But Beal will still have high trade value moving forward.

[bearrock]

Wizards actually played near .500 ball after Wall went down until they ran into a buzzsaw at the end of the season to end 2-10 (I would like to think it had something to do with either intentionally trying to tank or Beal leading the league in minutes, but who knows).  You can't have Beal be your best player and hope to contend, but you can try for years to acquire a player of comparable quality as a 2nd piece and not come close without shelling out a ton of assets.  Any path Wizards have forward to contention will need a Kwahi or Giannis level homerun in the draft.  Having Beal as 2nd piece makes solving the rest of the puzzle easier than having a few more first round picks.

 

[Barry.Randolphe]

Give me Bol/Frenchie and Bruno Fernandez if he falls to the 2nd....I wouldn't be opposed to a trade up for him in the very late 1st

[Hersh]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

This is the common lot for pure guards.  It's why teams built around guards rarely contend, and it's why teams with good guards and trash front court players like ours don't win at all.

 

 

What the what??

 

You want to clarify “teams built around guards rarely contend?”

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

What the what??

 

You want to clarify “teams built around guards rarely contend?”

 

Teams that commit the bulk of their team building resources to the guard position rarely contend.