The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Not sure how I feel about that.  I mean, they gave us the best Wizards season in forever, I guess comparable to the Arenas team that made it past the 1st round, except this team won a few games once they got there.  So that's nice, and I enjoyed watching them, but I don't think I ever once watched them thinking they could dethrone Miami or any of the better Western teams.

 

If they sign Ariza, they are saying "Wall and Beal are going to be Durant and Westbrook and are going to play in a weaker conference. We just need to give them a better supporting cast."

 

There is a certain amount of logic in that.

[Going Commando]

Porter does need to make huge strides and come up big for us for the team to really be something.

Beal also needs to actually become the perennial All Star that we seem to take for granted he will become. I think it will happen. But I think he's still a year away.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Beal also needs to actually become the perennial All Star that we seem to take for granted he will become. I think it will happen. But I think he's still a year away.

 

Do you know what is becoming abundantly clear?

 

This new CBA really sucks.

 

It's more or less killed the idea of a three-star team. And your mileage may vary as to whether that is a good thing or not. But it's actually made it somewhat difficult to be a two-star team. You simply cannot be wrong about one of the "stars" or you are going to end up in a nightmare - basically what the Pacers are experiencing. Because they put a big bet on Roy Hibbert that was probably a mistake, their off-season choices are "sign Lance Stephenson" or "don't sign Lance Stephenson." And either way, they are in the same cap situation.

 

The Wizards are clearly putting all their chips on "Wall and Beal." And that's fine...unless Beal's ceiling isn't what everyone thinks it is. If it's not, this team is screwed six ways til Sunday for half a decade.

[Kosher Ham]

If they sign Ariza, they are saying "Wall and Beal are going to be Durant and Westbrook and are going to play in a weaker conference. We just need to give them a better supporting cast."

 

There is a certain amount of logic in that.

 

The building of the team has to include...ability to compete/win vs. Western conference teams.

 

If you can't do that it is indeed illogical.

[Going Commando]

Do you know what is becoming abundantly clear?

 

This new CBA really sucks.

 

It's more or less killed the idea of a three-star team. And your mileage may vary as to whether that is a good thing or not. But it's actually made it somewhat difficult to be a two-star team. You simply cannot be wrong about one of the "stars" or you are going to end up in a nightmare - basically what the Pacers are experiencing. Because they put a big bet on Roy Hibbert that was probably a mistake, their off-season choices are "sign Lance Stephenson" or "don't sign Lance Stephenson." And either way, they are in the same cap situation.

 

The Wizards are clearly putting all their chips on "Wall and Beal." And that's fine...unless Beal's ceiling isn't what everyone thinks it is. If it's not, this team is screwed six ways til Sunday for half a decade.

Yeah they've gone all in on Wall and Beal. They picked Wall #1, they were all in on him the moment that happened. Gave him a max extension before he made the AS game.

But that's basically always been our only way out of the dregs of the NBA. A difference maker free agent/coach/GM just wasn't going to walk through that door. We're the Wizards. We don't find draft gems outside the lottery that explode our expectations.

Our only chance at an eventual contender was to get very high draft picks in good classes and hope for the best with them. Hope for a poor man's Portland or OKC I suppose. Once you pick a Wall and a Beal, and your're terrible, is there any point in holding back on them when you know they're your only real chance? I think you just plow forward operating with the certainty they're your core and that's it and hopefully things will work out.

And I actually think there is harm done when you take a wait and see approach on a young talent instead of committing to them and securing your foundation. That's what happened to Minnesota with Love IMO. I can see it happening with Utah and their young guys they keep doubling down on position-wise. Ditto for Cleveland and Philly and Detroit.

There is real value to things like continuity, chemistry, identity, etc. for a team. When you start a building process, I think you just have to pick a direction and well and truly go for it. Ted's been pretty decisive about going for it with Ernie, Wittman, Wall, and Beal. That direction seems crazy to most NBA observers. But it just might end up actually working out as each of those guys actually grow into the roles Ted has envisioned for them. This team actually has the look of an annual playoff participant.

And then I think when you get something real built like that, all it takes is one big lucky break to get over the hill to true contention. Houston signing Dwight Howard. Westbrook becoming the second best guard in the game. The Clippers signing CP3. LeBron James and Chris Bosh falling into your lap.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

The building of the team has to include...ability to compete/win vs. Western conference teams.

 

If you can't do that it is indeed illogical.

 

Does it?

 

If the Mavs had beaten the Spurs in Round 1 or if Ibaka had been healthy, it's probably the Thunder versus Heat in the Finals....and the Heat are probably three time champs today.

 

If I'm building a team in the East, my job is to win the conference and then let whatever happens happen in the Finals.

 

To the Wizards specifically....it's not completely clear what moves they have to make.

 

You have to keep money available to give Beal a max. That's more important than anything. Nene's expiring frees that money....but leaves you a big man short after a playoffs where what really distinguished you is your depth in the front court.

 

Gortat's deal is longer than I would have anticipated, but it's not out of line for a good starting center in terms of dollars.

 

If you let Ariza go, you can basically get back a player at Ariza's dollar figure....or maybe two lesser players. Who are they? Mike Miller? Probably the same dollar figure as Ariza with better shooting and less D.  Patty Mills? Is he anything outside San Antonio? Paul Pierce? He isn't cheap and is old and at this point what does he do that Ariza can't?

[Taylor703]

LeBron and Durant aren't the only FAs worth signing.

What other free agents are going to make this team a contender? Gortat and Ariza did just that and save for a couple collapses they should've been playing Miami in the ECF. All that while getting zero contributions from the third pick in the draft.

[LetMeSeeYourWarFace21]

It may be quixotic to keep the door open for Durant.....

 

 

I dont know what that word means, but I like it.....

[Hersh]

Unless they somehow think that Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene and Gortat will beat Miami with Wade, LeBron, Bosh and whomever they bring in to make their team deeper, what's the point of bringing Ariza back?

 

If I'm the Wiz, I let Ariza walk and fill out the bench with as many vets as possible. I call up someone like Ray Allen to go with Miller and Gooden. I look for a guy like Collison that can give decent big man minutes. Play to win a championship, not just be a playoff team.

[RonArtest15]

I'd let Ariza walk and go after a cheaper alternative like PJ Tucker or Thabo Sefalosha. 

[Skin'emAlive]

No to Thabo. Dude completely lost his 3-point touch. What happened to Glen Rice? Is he still on this team? Cant he play the 3 as well as the 2?

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I'd let Ariza walk and go after a cheaper alternative like PJ Tucker or Thabo Sefalosha. 

 

Thabo - You want to compete with the West by signing a guy who could not play in last years WCF and saw his minutes go to Derek Fisher?

 

Tucker - He's intriguing. But he's 30, has had one real NBA season, and is an RFA.

[Popeman38]

If the Heat resign Lebron, Wade, and Bosh, and then go out and sign Lowery to go with the bench they have, it doesn't matter what the rest of the East does. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

If the Heat resign Lebron, Wade, and Bosh, and then go out and sign Lowery to go with the bench they have, it doesn't matter what the rest of the East does. 

 

They don't have a bench.

 

Right now, the Miami Heat consists of Norris Cole and Shabazz Napier. That is their entire roster.

Edited July 2, 2014 by Lombardi's_kid_brother

[RonArtest15]

I'm saying both guys are cheaper alternatives.  For as much as Thabo struggled, he's still a great perimeter defender and he'd benefit just as much as Ariza did in getting OPEN looks from 3.

 

PJ Tucker, he'd come at a fraction of the cost it would take to get Thabo, but he's a good 3 & D replacement.  For what Ariza does, I think both Thabo and Tucker could help to fill that void.  If GrJr makes strides in his development, we could completely cover the loss of Ariza by committee. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

The Heat are getting their big 3 back. Wade might be declining though.

That Gortat contract hurts the more I think about it. Just seems short-sighted. The goal should be to win a championship. That wasn't going to happen next season or the following. I'd've been ok taking a step back next year if it left us with the resources to make a championship push from 2016-on.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

The Heat are getting their big 3 back. Wade might be declining though.

That Gortat contract hurts the more I think about it. Just seems short-sighted. The goal should be to win a championship. That wasn't going to happen next season or the following. I'd've been ok taking a step back next year if it left us with the resources to make a championship push from 2016-on.

 

I think this is a good point.

 

I also wonder if you really want to take a step back at this point in Wall and Beal's development. They got to experience what being a pretty good playoff team felt like last year. That has value. They need to keep moving forward though.

[No Excuses]

I'm really intrigued by Pat Patterson. The Raptors have made him an RFA but I'd much rather throw 6 million at him to come of the bench. I'd also look into Ersan Ilyasova. HIs 3PT% tanked last year but that probably has something to do with the Bucks being horrible. He's had seasons where he shot 45% from the 3. That's insane for a guy his size who also rebounds well and is passable on defense. That kind of floor spacing is crucial for Wall and our offense.

 

It can't be stated enough how horrible our front court depth is. We have Gortat and that's about it. He goes down, you wanna rely on Seraphin? Booker? Nene is good for about 50-60 games a year. He plays maybe 5-6 healthy games before he tweaks something that lingers on even if he plays. At max you can play him 25-30 MPG. Who is backing him up? Booker?

 

Why invest all this money into Ariza when we have (A) Cheap quality depth at the SF spot and B. have zero depth at the PF/C spots. To me it's insanity and total lack of foresight and direction. 

[RonArtest15]

I think this is a good point.

 

I also wonder if you really want to take a step back at this point in Wall and Beal's development. They got to experience what being a pretty good playoff team felt like last year. That has value. They need to keep moving forward though.

 

 

Continuity is key and Gortat got the AAV I thought, but the 5th year is crazy.  It is what it is.  I just really hope the team doesn't do anything foolish regarding Ariza.  No need to give this team a ceiling after one playoff run.

I'm really intrigued by Pat Patterson. The Raptors have made him an RFA but I'd much rather throw 6 million at him to come of the bench. I'd also look into Ersan Ilyasova. HIs 3PT% tanked last year but that probably has something to do with the Bucks being horrible. He's had seasons where he shot 45% from the 3. That's insane for a guy his size who also rebounds well and is passable on defense. That kind of floor spacing is crucial for Wall and our offense.

 

It can't be stated enough how horrible our front court depth is. We have Gortat and that's about it. He goes down, you wanna rely on Seraphin? Booker? Nene is good for about 50-60 games a year. He plays maybe 5-6 healthy games before he tweaks something that lingers on even if he plays. At max you can play him 25-30 MPG. Who is backing him up? Booker?

 

Why invest all this money into Ariza when we have (A) Cheap quality depth at the SF spot and B. have zero depth at the PF/C spots. To me it's insanity and total lack of foresight and direction. 

 

I agree with everything you said. 

 

Go cheap on a SF like Tucker/Thabo, then throw some cash at Pat Patterson.  Gives you depth as well as options. 

 

As far as Ilyasova, I think he'd be a good fit, but he'd have to come here via trade.  I just don't know if we have the pieces OR if anyone is going to be a taker of Nene at this point. 

[No Excuses]

Also for those who may not know, Nene is playing international ball for Brazil this summer. I'm fully prepared for him barely playing at next year while taking up the most salary in our cap.

 

If there was a disaster of a trade prohibiting this team from doing anything, it was the Nene/McGee swap. We gave the Nuggets prospects AND took one of the worst contracts in the league.

[Going Commando]

I'm saying both guys are cheaper alternatives.  For as much as Thabo struggled, he's still a great perimeter defender and he'd benefit just as much as Ariza did in getting OPEN looks from 3.

 

PJ Tucker, he'd come at a fraction of the cost it would take to get Thabo, but he's a good 3 & D replacement.  For what Ariza does, I think both Thabo and Tucker could help to fill that void.  If GrJr makes strides in his development, we could completely cover the loss of Ariza by committee.

I like the Tucker idea. But I think Thabo is cooked. He looked really rough last year.

I like the idea of making up for Ariza by committee. We've got Porter. We drafted him to start so have him start. Fill in the bench with something and then Webster will be back a month or two into the season probably.

What I would love to do with the Ariza money is get Pat Patterson. I think he's a perfect fit as a solid stretch 4 of relatively low cost and he's one of Wall's friends that played with him in Kentucky. He can set up and shoot from just about everywhere on the floor and he'd give us some real small ball ability and some insurance for all the games and minutes Nene will miss.

The only thing about letting go of Ariza that gives me pause is the chemistry issue. Everyone on the team seems to loves Ariza, particularly Wall. He's a key locker room personality and messing with that can cause some really bad juju. See Indy with getting rid of Granger and bringing in Bynum and Turner.

That said, the Wizards need a walk away number with Ariza because his skill set is actually replaceable. Buying high on role players in contract years just doesn't usually end well.

[RonArtest15]

I like the Tucker idea. But I think Thabo is cooked. He looked really rough last year.

I like the idea of making up for Ariza by committee. We've got Porter. We drafted him to start so have him start. Fill in the bench with something and then Webster will be back a month or two into the season probably.

What I would love to do with the Ariza money is get Pat Patterson. I think he's a perfect fit as a solid stretch 4 of relatively low cost and he's one of Wall's friends that played with him in Kentucky. He can set up and shoot from just about everywhere on the floor and he'd give us some real small ball ability and some insurance for all the games and minutes Nene will miss.

The only thing about letting go of Ariza that gives me pause is the chemistry issue. Everyone on the team seems to loves Ariza, particularly Wall. He's a key locker room personality and messing with that can cause some really bad juju. See Indy with getting rid of Granger and bringing in Bynum and Turner.

That said, the Wizards need a walk away number with Ariza because his skill set is actually replaceable. Buying high on role players in contract years just doesn't usually end well.

 

Agreed on all points, SM.

 

There are servicable 3&D guys around the league who could fill Ariza's void.  On top of it all, like you mentioned, we have Otto waiting in the wings.  A smart FO wouldn't trip if Ariza walked.  While he's a beast on defense, he feasted on OPEN looks generated by Wall.  There are plenty of other guys who could probably shoot close to 40% on 3's playing in this offense.

 

My fear is that we'll overpay.  My hope is that a team like the Pistons or Mavs will help save the Wizards from themselves. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I like the Tucker idea. But I think Thabo is cooked. He looked really rough last year.

I like the idea of making up for Ariza by committee. We've got Porter. We drafted him to start so have him start. Fill in the bench with something and then Webster will be back a month or two into the season probably.

 

 

The only problem is: none of us have seen Porter in practice. What if the coaches have reached the conclusion that he (Best Ken Beatrice voice) "can't play." If you have no faith in Porter and don't have Webster.....you need to get a 3 somewhere.

 

It's easy to say "Start Porter" from your couch. It's a lot harder from the bench.

[RonArtest15]

The only problem is: none of us have seen Porter in practice. What if the coaches have reached the conclusion that he (Best Ken Beatrice voice) "can't play." If you have no faith in Porter and don't have Webster.....you need to get a 3 somewhere.

 

It's easy to say "Start Porter" from your couch. It's a lot harder from the bench.

 

Put it this way...dude needs to show out during summer league.  I'm talking about DOMINATING.  He should be destroying guys on both ends of the floor.  He's got a season of NBA practices under his belt and with Martell's injury, his role will expand.  If dude looks like trash, that changes a lot for the Wizards going forward. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Where does Porter get picked if he was in the 2014 Draft?

 

Yes, he's the 3rd overall pick. But that draft was a disaster. He might be closer to a traditional #20 pick.

 

If he was a #20 pick, nobody would be just handing him the starters job in Year 2.

 

The Cavs need to realize this with Bennett too. They are too hung up on the fact that he was #1 overall. They need to treat him like the #14 pick he truly was.