WP/Boswell- Staying rational

[War Paint]

We are going to be better than 8-8, unless we have bad luck with injuries again. Zorn went 8-8 with JC at QB. 8-8 with this regime will be a major disappointment. 10-6 or better is expected by me. I would say 8-8 if we had a rookie QB we drafted starting and that we went for the rebuilding year. We didn't.

[ArmchairRedskin]

I wouldn't feel like much of a fanatic if I went into the season thinking we're only going 8-8.

[Kindred]

Expect the best, and tolerate nothing less.

F this stay medium rational crap. Thats what losers say to console themselves.

[hoskins]

I wouldn't feel like much of a fanatic if I went into the season thinking we're only going 8-8.

Really, I'll be pretty happy with 8-8, given it's just the first year. Especially if it looks like 3-5 in the first half, 5-3 in the second.

Then in the second year in our new D, with a couple of pieces in the 2011 offseason like WR and OLB, and in the second year of McNabb and Kyle working together, we would legitimately be looking at competing for playoffs in 2011. That would be quite a turnaround and something to be pretty happy with.

Certainly better than where we were headed.

[Darth Tater]

I've NEVER heard of a rational fan.

[WyomingRedskin]

As far as I am concerned, we had the talent to be an 8-8 team in 2009. Injuries, poor coaching and ineffective schemes brought that record down.

I think the 2010 squad has slightly better talent. You add in a Pro Bowl quarterback, championship coach and proven effective schemes and there should be a lot of potential. Potential is still the key word.

If the offensive line gels and a few WRs step up to help Moss, then I think we are going to the playoffs with 10 or 11 wins, barring major injuries. I think worst case scenerio is 7 wins.

[Brotherz]

:applause:

Holy ****, that was a great post.

Wow thanks!!!

[Brotherz]

Great post. For the sake of space I cut to your chase. I see why we could be good this season but I also know that to win 3 more games from the year before is an accomplishment. To go 7-9 in the NFC east when also playing GB, Minny, and Indy is no shame for a first-year squad. I'm just gonna keep it real until we win 7 games with some season left.

Fair. Totally fair. But your reason for your prediction is quite different than Boswell's (and the vast majority of prognosticators out there; namely - that we were 4-12 last year.

You're analysis would be equally applicable to the team assembled of free agents by Shannallen and put into the divion for the first time as in my original example. Sure, the east is a strong division, the cowboys are superbowl favorites, the giants have won it in the last 5 years, and our non-divisional games are particularly difficult opponents. Great arguments for a 7-9 or 8-8 season for this young, new team. But none of that really has to do with the debacle of last year.

Its sort of like flipping a coin 10 times and surprisingly the coin lands on heads 9 times in a row. What is the probability of it landing on heads on the tenth flip. 50%!!! It doesn't change just because the things before it were unlikely statistically. My point really is just that in light of the depth of the changes that have taken place within this organization, it is so distinct from last year that making predictions of this year's success on last year's failure is a bad logical equation.

[Brotherz]

In reference to Boswell's research, I wonder how many of those first year head coaches had a proven Pro Bowl quarterback brought in that was absent the year before. This is a factor where I might put the Redskins as an exception to the rule. As most first year coaches either draft a quarterback, go with what they had the year before, or work with whatever limited free agent quarterbacks are available.

This is where I think the Redskins could be the exception to the rule. If we had stuck with what we had (Campbell), drafted a quarterback (say we got Bradford), or went with the best available free agent QBs (Campbell again) I think our expectation would be more on par with an "improvement season" in the 7-9 plus or minus range. But with McNabb, I think it would be fair to have expectations in the 10-6 plus or minus range barring injury.

Totally agree. Not to mention that he goes back 20 years which is well before free agency and the parity we see now. Notice when he is dropping the "few teams" that defied the odds they are Atlanta and Miami in the last 5 years. There's a reason for that. The league is now filled with parity. Remember last year when but for a suisam missed chip shot field goal we would have ended the Saints perfect season? Happens all the time now. Teams don't build "dynasties" anymore. Its just not a practical approach.

My father was a professional sports handicapper for 25 years and he used to laugh at the guys who would bet on a game based on stats that showed a team was 11-4 on the road, in the rain, when playing on artificial turf following a bye week when the week before they played on monday night football. Sure, its an impressive stat, but its just not predictive of anything.

[CurseReversed]

I want us to imagine something for a moment. Imagine a world where the NFL all stays the same except for two things:

1) The Redskins of 2009 are completely disbanded and kicked out of the NFC East and all of their players become free agents along with all of the other free agents around the NFL.

2) Mike Shannahan and Bruce Allen team up and are given the opportunity to pick who they want to make a new team to fit into the slot of the old Zorn skins that has been kicked out.

There are standing 53 former redskins including Ladell Betts, Jason Campbell, Levi Jones, Antwan Randle El, Cornelius Griffin. etc. In addition to them are Trent Williams, Jamaal Brown, Albert Haynesworth, London Fletcher, Donovan Mcnabb, Santana Moss.

Bruce and Mike Shannahan get to pick who will play from the available pool to play in their new team that will be joining the NFC East in place of those Zornskins of 2009.

we all sit back to see who they take. They don't take Jason Campbell. Instead they take Donovan Mcnabb. They get Trent Williams off of Oklahoma's team. They get larry Johnson as a backup! They get two time pro bowl tackle Jamaal Brown. They scoop up Albert Haynesworth (ok to his chagrin). London Fletcher, Kareem Moore. Landry, Dockery, Artis Hicks, Vonnie Holliday, Adam Carriker, Deangelo Hall and Carlos Rogers, Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. They go out and get the offensive coordinator of the number one passing offense - Kyle Shannahan and they grab Haslett to be defensive coordinator. Now they join the NFC east in year ONE of their little experiment and are told they will wear the same uniforms, in the same stadium, with the same fans and with the same name as the team that was ejected from the East in our mythical world.

How does Shannahan do in his first year with this group?

Seriously, when you remove the dreadful past from the equation and just change the perspective to this you see that last year means just about NOTHING. I am also trying to temper my expectations because of how many times I have been dissappointed by "this team". But who dissappointed me? Spurrier? Zorn? Gibbs 2.0 (I can't even say I was THAT dissappointed with him!), Cerrato? Antwan Randle El? Archuleta? Jason Campbell? Deion Sanders? Levi Jones? Betts? Al Saunders? Sherm lewis?

Mike Shannahan and the Skins will undoubtedly have a better record next year than this year. But this starting point of the 4-12 Zornskins or Shermskins is just not much closer to reality than my scenario is it?

Do you think anyone is pulling Kyle's playcalling duties to give them to a 70 year old man who was working at a bingo hall when he got the call?

Two fake field goals in a row?

Those ridiculous press conferences? Portis lashing out on the sidelines? Guys constantly not practicing? No intensity. Befuddled? Sack after sack after sack? Confused QB like a deer in headlights play after play after play? Corners 10 yards off the reciever in 3rd and 4? Justin Geisinger left alone against Terrell Suggs? Stephon Heyer, and Levi Jones as bookend tackles with Rinehart at guard?

Will the Shannahan picked team joining the east for its first year win the superbowl. Unlikely. Will it use its base of measurement though as 4-12 because that's what Jim Zorn gave them? Even more unlikely.

I expect fight and competition the whole year. Every single game. And I mean against the Colts. Against the PAckers. Against Farve and the Vikes. Dog fights. Every week. And dare I say it . . . we beat up a bad team or two as well. No more escaping St louis at home after failing to get it in from the one yard line because we ran back to back stretch runs behind levi jones. Its a completely different team.

They won't be 13-3 because they are in their first year together. They also won't be 6-10 because this is a completely different team. 8-8 should be a floor for this team. Not a ceiling.

You nailed it brother, preach on.

We have had a lot going against us in the past, we know the talent is there, someone just needs to make it work well.

It is true that given our history we will inevitably be robbed in some way, but I like our chances better then ever.

[Audible_Red40]

Just win baby!

[ebaggg]

Here's a response to Boswell's article. He based all his stats off the Redskins being a 4-12 team...and we all know they were NOT a 4-12 team...any other NFL coach would have been at least 6-10 w/ the amount of talent and as easy as that schedule was.

http://www.hogshaven.com/2010/8/26/1651847/boswell-odds-are-against-redskins

[Duckus]

7-9 has been my guess since the beginning of the off-season. 8-8 would be amazing IMO.

I am trying to go into this season with realistic expectations.

[ntotoro]

Hovering around .500, Bos? Way to go out on a limb...

[USS Redskins]

I hate to say it but I think this team is a mess. Shannahan inherited a huge disaster and it will take a while to fix. McNabb is not going to be able to do much behind that aging line and the WR's are basically a joke. Portis is tough but pushing 30 with 2 back-up washed up almost 30 yr olds.

The D looks really uncomfortable in the new scheme and it would be really interesting to see players actually play in the positions they excel in and were trained for.

The skins went from the 5th oldest team in the league to the oldest. I am sure it is going to show.

we are looking at 5-11 maybe 6-10.

I was hoping McNabb alone would add 3-4 more wins over the useless Campbell but I am not too sure now.

Bottom feeders again.

Hope I am wrong.

[Mursilis]

Mike went to the 3-4 defense for a reason, to generate turnovers. Smart? Yes. Some don't understand the reason why. But look what it has done for other teams. Look at how many teams that use the 3-4 defense, finished in the top 10. Thats fact.

Detroit also uses the 3-4, and they finished dead last in '09. It's not the scheme so much as it's the players.

[Duckus]

Here's a response to Boswell's article. He based all his stats off the Redskins being a 4-12 team...and we all know they were NOT a 4-12 team...any other NFL coach would have been at least 6-10 w/ the amount of talent and as easy as that schedule was.

http://www.hogshaven.com/2010/8/26/1651847/boswell-odds-are-against-redskins

I agree that our schedule was easy and that most coaches would probably get us to 6-10 last year - but I have become a bit tired of the "amount of talent" talk when discussing the Redskins roster every year.

We Redskins fans have an amazing ability to over-hype our own talent. We always claim we are overflowing with talented players - but none of this "talent" has ever won anything with the Redskins. Big name, big contracts, who have honestly never won **** here yet.

Tom Boswell had a good quote last year that was something along the lines of how the Redskins fans/players need to start evaluating talent on what they actually do with the Redskins - not what they have done in college, with another team, how high they were drafted, or how big their contracts are.

[NoVaSkins21]

Hovering around .500, Bos? Way to go out on a limb...

Exactly. 8-8 is basically a safe pick, but IMO, this team can be better than that. Having McNabb and Shanahan here is definite worth a few more wins than with Zorn and Campbell. Injuries, however, can change everything. We'll see I guess.

[TheShredder]

I think also though the league is a different league than in the 90's. It seems there is much more turnover in teams going from bad to good and good to bad. It seems like every season there are 2-3 teams that were completely overlooked that either make the playoffs or barely miss out on the playoffs.

Also, the Redskins are still running the WCO, not exactly starting over from scratch. Also, they upgraded to a proven franchise QB.

Who knows, I still say we have no real way to judge the team until Week 1, against a team the media seems to think is ready for a superbowl run.

I say you can't get a bead on the season until about 1/3 of the way in.

My other point or question would be that the article doesn't take into consideration that each year there is a team that goes from worst to first. Redskins are about the only team that has improved widely enough to be considered a threat to do that. Detroit improved too, but not enough.

[Mursilis]

Expect the best, and tolerate nothing less.

F this stay medium rational crap. Thats what losers say to console themselves.

I don't get that. So, are you going to jump ship if they don't go 16-0 this year?

[ntotoro]

I don't get that. So, are you going to jump ship if they don't go 16-0 this year?

I think the point is that perfection should always be the driving factor, not "well, this is as good as we'll ever be, so let's not get too worried."

Any Coach worth a **** would look at his team and try to strengthen the weak links, not just hope the strong ones can carry the team (like Bugeyes tried when he thought the Defense would be good enough to carry our woeful Offense last year).

[talk show host]

shanahan was 9-7, 8-8, and 7-9 his last three years in denver. hes taken over a 4-12 team, turned over about 50% of the players and 90% of the staff, is playing a very tough schedule, and has completely changed the defensive scheme and philosophy. no sane person would suggest that given all those factors, that shanahan would - in his first year here- lead this team to a record any better than what he had his last few years in denver - when he had the coaches, system, and players he wanted in place for years. thinking we can do any better than 9-7 or 10-6 is just plain stupid.

[Mursilis]

Whenever I'm prognosticating, I remember back to the 2006 season. Coming off a 10-6 season and a trip to the second round of the playoffs, who ever saw 5-11 happening for this team? Especially with a HoF coach and a bunch of free-agent signings in the offseason? I was thinking maybe Super Bowl or NFC championship that year. And yet, 5-11 happened. You just never know these days.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I'm optimistic...but I always am. I thought we'd go 11-5 last year with Zorn and Campbell!

However, there is a lot of turnover and Boswell even mentioned that he's not predicting, he's demonstrating the odds. So, that takes into account teams with new/bad coaches, teams with a bad QB, etc.

But, odds are odds. If we make the playoffs this year, we'll be defying the odds no matter who is coaching/QBing our team.

In the end, this year is gravy to me. We have a professional organization again so I'm thrilled. I expect that in the next couple years we'll be building toward being a perennial contender so I can deal with baby steps in the beginning.

In the end, the only thing that will really disappoint me this year is if we don't improve by at least 2 games. If we finish 6-10 or better, I'll be able to acknowledge that we're moving in the right direction.

Granted, come September 12, I'll be like the players and believe we should win every game...

[SWFLSkins]

shanahan was 9-7, 8-8, and 7-9 his last three years in denver. hes taken over a 4-12 team, turned over about 50% of the players and 90% of the staff, is playing a very tough schedule, and has completely changed the defensive scheme and philosophy. no sane person would suggest that given all those factors, that shanahan would - in his first year here- lead this team to a record any better than what he had his last few years in denver - when he had the coaches, system, and players he wanted in place for years. thinking we can do any better than 9-7 or 10-6 is just plain stupid.

With all that you mentioned (and it's true) 9-7 or 10-6 is thinking on the top side and being hopeful. I am with you, while that would be great I won't be disappointed with an improving hard playing team finishing 7-9. Less would be disappointing because I don't think the talent here has been used effectively and the OL is improved. Depth is always a questions and you hopefully stay healthy.