WP/Boswell- Staying rational

[Chachie]

I really have to agree with Bos on this one...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/25/AR2010082506409.html

"One key to happiness is hoping for the best but keeping a sane grip on what's really most likely to happen. Unfortunately, those two ideas are often far apart....

...I'm starting to think, 50 years late, that the start of a Redskins season might be a nice time for realism.

Just so you know, they're going to go 7-9 this year.

Maybe 8-8, if a lot goes according to plan. Or 6-10, if it doesn't."

(see link for more)

[Oldfan]

Well, that article is just a long-winded way to say what a wise man not long ago advised us in just two profound words: "Stay medium."

[pez]

My call has been 8-8 for this season, even after the bills game...

Lets remember... new O & D schemes, new coaches, new players (including lineman who have to learn each other)

8-8 is still a big improvement over last year :doh:

[hail2skins]

Bos and his stats

I think 8-8 is reasonable to expect. We're going to have some tough non-divisional games at home (Packers, Vikings, Colts). But one of these seasons, expectations will be exceeded, and I can't wait for it!

[maskedsuperstar]

I don't. This team lost 7 games by a TD or less. Can the Skins move the ball? Yes. A whole lot better than they did last year. Even in preseason, the Skins couldn't the ball last year. 3 and out! The real problem is that the Skins couldn't score any points, averaging 16 points a game. I think the Skins will do a better job at getting the ball in the endzone this year, with Kyle calling the plays.

Mike went to the 3-4 defense for a reason, to generate turnovers. Smart? Yes. Some don't understand the reason why. But look what it has done for other teams. Look at how many teams that use the 3-4 defense, finished in the top 10. Thats fact.

A lot of blah blah blah. 3 games better? More than 3 games in my book.

[TheLongshot]

To be honest, I still am not sure what to expect out of this team as of yet, other than it is likely not to be as bad or worse than last year. That kind of injury luck doesn't happen every year.

One advantage we do have is the talent level on this team is a lot better than your average bad team.

[Truant]

Hard to argue.

The media makes it seem that these turn-around happen more often than they do. It's just that when it happens it gets so much attention.

We'll see if it's homerism or not. I think our roster was considerably better than 4-12 and our players gave up on the coaches. I'll be disappointed with anything under 8-8, but I can't say I'd be surprised.

If McNabb goes down (pretty good chance) then really it's really uphill.

I'm excited to see players playing with purpose.

[1972FAN]

The only statement I agree with:

"QUOTE" If any coach and quarterback can surpass these standards, it's probably Mike Shanahan, a genuine football guru, and Donovan McNabb, who was an absolute steal.

Besides that, how about addressing how the other teams in the division are looking, Its not like any one of them are burning down the house" , and last time I checked they play the same teams we do. So,,,, they have a hard schedule too??

Also don't care about those statistics on the coaching change the following year and winning 5 games or more because it's about who's taking over and the talent he's left. Jim Zorn had the talent but he was no Head Coach and the plays he used were lack luster, sophmoric to say the least and he didnt not play to the talents of the team. So on that aspect I disagree with boswell using that analogy with THIS TEAM. Shanahan is a proven winner and knows how to make championship teams, big difference from a green coach coming in to make a name for himself.

I say: 9-7 - 10-6

[TheLongshot]

Also don't care about those statistics on the coaching change the following year and winning 5 games or more because it's about who's taking over and the talent he's left. Jim Zorn had the talent but he was no Head Coach and the plays he used were lack luster, sophmoric to say the least and he didnt not play to the talents of the team. So on that aspect I disagree with boswell using that analogy the with THIS TEAM. Shanahan is a proven winner and knows how to make championship teams, big difference from a green coach coming in to make a name for himself.

That being said, there are changes that still need to play out. How is the defense going to adjust to playing the 3-4? Will the rebuilt OL hold up? Will McNabb hold up? Will the WRs be able to do the job? We have incomplete answers on a lot of these questions. Hell, McNabb is already nicked up and the season hasn't even started yet.

[RedskinsInFebruary]

I think if the team stays healthy, we can do better than .500. That's always a big if though, for any team.

[1972FAN]

That being said, there are changes that still need to play out. How is the defense going to adjust to playing the 3-4? Will the rebuilt OL hold up? Will McNabb hold up? Will the WRs be able to do the job? We have incomplete answers on a lot of these questions. Hell, McNabb is already nicked up and the season hasn't even started yet.

Well I watched the Cowboys vs Chargers game and I wasn't impressed with the Cowboys and they lost a couple 1st string players as well now, so I guess everybody has issues?

[HailToTheRedskins14]

I don't. This team lost 7 games by a TD or less. Can the Skins move the ball? Yes. A whole lot better than they did last year. Even in preseason, the Skins couldn't the ball last year. 3 and out! The real problem is that the Skins couldn't score any points, averaging 16 points a game. I think the Skins will do a better job at getting the ball in the endzone this year, with Kyle calling the plays.

Mike went to the 3-4 defense for a reason, to generate turnovers. Smart? Yes. Some don't understand the reason why. But look what it has done for other teams. Look at how many teams that use the 3-4 defense, finished in the top 10. Thats fact.

A lot of blah blah blah. 3 games better? More than 3 games in my book.

In response to "The team lost 7 games by a TD or less", we also played one of the worst schedules in the HISTORY of the NFL.

As someone said above, STAY MEDIUM!

[maskedsuperstar]

That being said, there are changes that still need to play out. How is the defense going to adjust to playing the 3-4?

We don't know. In fact, there has been no game plan. So, Dallas could be in for a rude awakening. They can't game plan.

Will the rebuilt OL hold up? Will McNabb hold up? Will the WRs be able to do the job? We have incomplete answers on a lot of these questions. Hell, McNabb is already nicked up and the season hasn't even started yet.

Its football. I think every team in the division has question marks, when it comes to the OL, especially Dallas. Lets face it, if Zorn and Campbell were still here, I'd worry. Just 3 games better?

[Califan007 The Constipated]

the start of a Redskins season might be a nice time for realism.

Just so you know, they're going to go 7-9 this year.

Am I the only one who found these two statements ironic when said together? lol ...

[NoCalMike]

I think also though the league is a different league than in the 90's. It seems there is much more turnover in teams going from bad to good and good to bad. It seems like every season there are 2-3 teams that were completely overlooked that either make the playoffs or barely miss out on the playoffs.

Also, the Redskins are still running the WCO, not exactly starting over from scratch. Also, they upgraded to a proven franchise QB.

Who knows, I still say we have no real way to judge the team until Week 1, against a team the media seems to think is ready for a superbowl run.

[Brotherz]

I want us to imagine something for a moment. Imagine a world where the NFL all stays the same except for two things:

1) The Redskins of 2009 are completely disbanded and kicked out of the NFC East and all of their players become free agents along with all of the other free agents around the NFL.

2) Mike Shannahan and Bruce Allen team up and are given the opportunity to pick who they want to make a new team to fit into the slot of the old Zorn skins that has been kicked out.

There are standing 53 former redskins including Ladell Betts, Jason Campbell, Levi Jones, Antwan Randle El, Cornelius Griffin. etc. In addition to them are Trent Williams, Jamaal Brown, Albert Haynesworth, London Fletcher, Donovan Mcnabb, Santana Moss.

Bruce and Mike Shannahan get to pick who will play from the available pool to play in their new team that will be joining the NFC East in place of those Zornskins of 2009.

we all sit back to see who they take. They don't take Jason Campbell. Instead they take Donovan Mcnabb. They get Trent Williams off of Oklahoma's team. They get larry Johnson as a backup! They get two time pro bowl tackle Jamaal Brown. They scoop up Albert Haynesworth (ok to his chagrin). London Fletcher, Kareem Moore. Landry, Dockery, Artis Hicks, Vonnie Holliday, Adam Carriker, Deangelo Hall and Carlos Rogers, Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. They go out and get the offensive coordinator of the number one passing offense - Kyle Shannahan and they grab Haslett to be defensive coordinator. Now they join the NFC east in year ONE of their little experiment and are told they will wear the same uniforms, in the same stadium, with the same fans and with the same name as the team that was ejected from the East in our mythical world.

How does Shannahan do in his first year with this group?

Seriously, when you remove the dreadful past from the equation and just change the perspective to this you see that last year means just about NOTHING. I am also trying to temper my expectations because of how many times I have been dissappointed by "this team". But who dissappointed me? Spurrier? Zorn? Gibbs 2.0 (I can't even say I was THAT dissappointed with him!), Cerrato? Antwan Randle El? Archuleta? Jason Campbell? Deion Sanders? Levi Jones? Betts? Al Saunders? Sherm lewis?

Mike Shannahan and the Skins will undoubtedly have a better record next year than this year. But this starting point of the 4-12 Zornskins or Shermskins is just not much closer to reality than my scenario is it?

Do you think anyone is pulling Kyle's playcalling duties to give them to a 70 year old man who was working at a bingo hall when he got the call?

Two fake field goals in a row?

Those ridiculous press conferences? Portis lashing out on the sidelines? Guys constantly not practicing? No intensity. Befuddled? Sack after sack after sack? Confused QB like a deer in headlights play after play after play? Corners 10 yards off the reciever in 3rd and 4? Justin Geisinger left alone against Terrell Suggs? Stephon Heyer, and Levi Jones as bookend tackles with Rinehart at guard?

Will the Shannahan picked team joining the east for its first year win the superbowl. Unlikely. Will it use its base of measurement though as 4-12 because that's what Jim Zorn gave them? Even more unlikely.

I expect fight and competition the whole year. Every single game. And I mean against the Colts. Against the PAckers. Against Farve and the Vikes. Dog fights. Every week. And dare I say it . . . we beat up a bad team or two as well. No more escaping St louis at home after failing to get it in from the one yard line because we ran back to back stretch runs behind levi jones. Its a completely different team.

They won't be 13-3 because they are in their first year together. They also won't be 6-10 because this is a completely different team. 8-8 should be a floor for this team. Not a ceiling.

[jwsleep]

I don't know--Boswell over the years has been pretty accurate, to my mind. 8-8 is a good season, IMO. Just show improvement.

[#98QBKiller]

I want us to imagine something for a moment. Imagine a world where the NFL all stays the same except for two things:

1) The Redskins of 2009 are completely disbanded and kicked out of the NFC East and all of their players become free agents along with all of the other free agents around the NFL.

2) Mike Shannahan and Bruce Allen team up and are given the opportunity to pick who they want to make a new team to fit into the slot of the old Zorn skins that has been kicked out.

There are standing 53 former redskins including Ladell Betts, Jason Campbell, Levi Jones, Antwan Randle El, Cornelius Griffin. etc. In addition to them are Trent Williams, Jamaal Brown, Albert Haynesworth, London Fletcher, Donovan Mcnabb, Santana Moss.

Bruce and Mike Shannahan get to pick who will play from the available pool to play in their new team that will be joining the NFC East in place of those Zornskins of 2009.

we all sit back to see who they take. They don't take Jason Campbell. Instead they take Donovan Mcnabb. They get Trent Williams off of Oklahoma's team. They get larry Johnson as a backup! They get two time pro bowl tackle Jamaal Brown. They scoop up Albert Haynesworth (ok to his chagrin). London Fletcher, Kareem Moore. Landry, Dockery, Artis Hicks, Vonnie Holliday, Adam Carriker, Deangelo Hall and Carlos Rogers, Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. They go out and get the offensive coordinator of the number one passing offense - Kyle Shannahan and they grab Haslett to be defensive coordinator. Now they join the NFC east in year ONE of their little experiment and are told they will wear the same uniforms, in the same stadium, with the same fans and with the same name as the team that was ejected from the East in our mythical world.

How does Shannahan do in his first year with this group?

Seriously, when you remove the dreadful past from the equation and just change the perspective to this you see that last year means just about NOTHING. I am also trying to temper my expectations because of how many times I have been dissappointed by "this team". But who dissappointed me? Spurrier? Zorn? Gibbs 2.0 (I can't even say I was THAT dissappointed with him!), Cerrato? Antwan Randle El? Archuleta? Jason Campbell? Deion Sanders? Levi Jones? Betts? Al Saunders? Sherm lewis?

Mike Shannahan and the Skins will undoubtedly have a better record next year than this year. But this starting point of the 4-12 Zornskins or Shermskins is just not much closer to reality than my scenario is it?

Do you think anyone is pulling Kyle's playcalling duties to give them to a 70 year old man who was working at a bingo hall when he got the call?

Two fake field goals in a row?

Those ridiculous press conferences? Portis lashing out on the sidelines? Guys constantly not practicing? No intensity. Befuddled? Sack after sack after sack? Confused QB like a deer in headlights play after play after play? Corners 10 yards off the reciever in 3rd and 4? Justin Geisinger left alone against Terrell Suggs? Stephon Heyer, and Levi Jones as bookend tackles with Rinehart at guard?

Will the Shannahan picked team joining the east for its first year win the superbowl. Unlikely. Will it use its base of measurement though as 4-12 because that's what Jim Zorn gave them? Even more unlikely.

I expect fight and competition the whole year. Every single game. And I mean against the Colts. Against the PAckers. Against Farve and the Vikes. Dog fights. Every week. And dare I say it . . . we beat up a bad team or two as well. No more escaping St louis at home after failing to get it in from the one yard line because we ran back to back stretch runs behind levi jones. Its a completely different team.

They won't be 13-3 because they are in their first year together. They also won't be 6-10 because this is a completely different team. 8-8 should be a floor for this team. Not a ceiling.

:applause:

Holy ****, that was a great post.

[shakinaiken]

I want us to imagine something for a moment. Imagine a world where the NFL all stays the same except for two things:

1) The Redskins of 2009 are completely disbanded and kicked out of the NFC East and all of their players become free agents along with all of the other free agents around the NFL.

2) Mike Shannahan and Bruce Allen team up and are given the opportunity to pick who they want to make a new team to fit into the slot of the old Zorn skins that has been kicked out.

There are standing 53 former redskins including Ladell Betts, Jason Campbell, Levi Jones, Antwan Randle El, Cornelius Griffin. etc. In addition to them are Trent Williams, Jamaal Brown, Albert Haynesworth, London Fletcher, Donovan Mcnabb, Santana Moss.

Bruce and Mike Shannahan get to pick who will play from the available pool to play in their new team that will be joining the NFC East in place of those Zornskins of 2009.

we all sit back to see who they take. They don't take Jason Campbell. Instead they take Donovan Mcnabb. They get Trent Williams off of Oklahoma's team. They get larry Johnson as a backup! They get two time pro bowl tackle Jamaal Brown. They scoop up Albert Haynesworth (ok to his chagrin). London Fletcher, Kareem Moore. Landry, Dockery, Artis Hicks, Vonnie Holliday, Adam Carriker, Deangelo Hall and Carlos Rogers, Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. They go out and get the offensive coordinator of the number one passing offense - Kyle Shannahan and they grab Haslett to be defensive coordinator. Now they join the NFC east in year ONE of their little experiment and are told they will wear the same uniforms, in the same stadium, with the same fans and with the same name as the team that was ejected from the East in our mythical world.

How does Shannahan do in his first year with this group?

Seriously, when you remove the dreadful past from the equation and just change the perspective to this you see that last year means just about NOTHING. I am also trying to temper my expectations because of how many times I have been dissappointed by "this team". But who dissappointed me? Spurrier? Zorn? Gibbs 2.0 (I can't even say I was THAT dissappointed with him!), Cerrato? Antwan Randle El? Archuleta? Jason Campbell? Deion Sanders? Levi Jones? Betts? Al Saunders? Sherm lewis?

Mike Shannahan and the Skins will undoubtedly have a better record next year than this year. But this starting point of the 4-12 Zornskins or Shermskins is just not much closer to reality than my scenario is it?

Do you think anyone is pulling Kyle's playcalling duties to give them to a 70 year old man who was working at a bingo hall when he got the call?

Two fake field goals in a row?

Those ridiculous press conferences? Portis lashing out on the sidelines? Guys constantly not practicing? No intensity. Befuddled? Sack after sack after sack? Confused QB like a deer in headlights play after play after play? Corners 10 yards off the reciever in 3rd and 4? Justin Geisinger left alone against Terrell Suggs? Stephon Heyer, and Levi Jones as bookend tackles with Rinehart at guard?

Will the Shannahan picked team joining the east for its first year win the superbowl. Unlikely. Will it use its base of measurement though as 4-12 because that's what Jim Zorn gave them? Even more unlikely.

I expect fight and competition the whole year. Every single game. And I mean against the Colts. Against the PAckers. Against Farve and the Vikes. Dog fights. Every week. And dare I say it . . . we beat up a bad team or two as well. No more escaping St louis at home after failing to get it in from the one yard line because we ran back to back stretch runs behind levi jones. Its a completely different team.

They won't be 13-3 because they are in their first year together. They also won't be 6-10 because this is a completely different team. 8-8 should be a floor for this team. Not a ceiling.

boy was that a passionate post..cheers:cheers:

[LD0506]

2nd that Brotherz, helluva post. It is possible to be a realistic fan.

[HailToTheRedskins14]

Still, I'm on the "I'll believe it when I see it" wagon.

Because I'm sure a bunch of you, if we were to go 5-11, would say "Oh see, they went out and got the shiny McNabb! Same ol', same ol'! Can't win with what we have, always thinking other teams' players can be our savior!"

Its impossible to tell, but I do get the sense people around here are expecting to get 10 wins. Maybe. As has been said, turnover in the NFL happens a lot, but I'll believe it when I see it.

[hoskins]

8-8 sounds about right to me. Huge upgrades at coach and QB, plus our feature back in shape and motivated, and upgrades at both tackle spots. Plus no more roulette playcalling or swinging gates.

Point against: McNabb is probably overrated (but still better than what we had) and new playbooks and both sides of the ball plus guys learning new positions. Lot of moving parts that may take 3-4 games to start to gel.

So balancing those out, I still see 8 wins. 7 if a kick or two go the wrong way. 6 if we get hit with big injuries.

[Chachie]

They won't be 13-3 because they are in their first year together. They also won't be 6-10 because this is a completely different team. 8-8 should be a floor for this team. Not a ceiling.

Great post. For the sake of space I cut to your chase. I see why we could be good this season but I also know that to win 3 more games from the year before is an accomplishment. To go 7-9 in the NFC east when also playing GB, Minny, and Indy is no shame for a first-year squad. I'm just gonna keep it real until we win 7 games with some season left.

[Pitbull]

I would like to add the discipline factor,

That alone is good for another two games on top of what Mike S. and

Donavan McNabb bring to the table.....Hell we had the Superbowl Champs on the ropes until the end of that game.

I see 10-6 and with a little bit of luck and actually having a winning game plan11-5. Some of those games last year was lost just due to absolutely poor game planning.

We will be prepared for every game this year, and the defense will get better and better as the year goes on because our linebackers will begin to get even more comfortable with their roles.

Go get em Skins, I will be hoarse after every game you can bet on that!!!

Just my 2 cents

[KevinthePRF]

In reference to Boswell's research, I wonder how many of those first year head coaches had a proven Pro Bowl quarterback brought in that was absent the year before. This is a factor where I might put the Redskins as an exception to the rule. As most first year coaches either draft a quarterback, go with what they had the year before, or work with whatever limited free agent quarterbacks are available.

This is where I think the Redskins could be the exception to the rule. If we had stuck with what we had (Campbell), drafted a quarterback (say we got Bradford), or went with the best available free agent QBs (Campbell again) I think our expectation would be more on par with an "improvement season" in the 7-9 plus or minus range. But with McNabb, I think it would be fair to have expectations in the 10-6 plus or minus range barring injury.