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ESPN via Adam Schefter: 1st round tender on Jason

mnb123

By mnb123
in The Stadium

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The Robert Griffin Experience

The Robert Griffin Experience

Posted
Posted
Before I adress this, let me say that I'd be fine with drafting a QB I see no reason why his trend of improving every year wouldn't continue. Look at his numbers during the 2nd half of 2008 on a "per game" basis, then look at those of 2009 (same crappy Oline and all) on a per game basis; it's a VAST improvement. When you consider that 2010's Oline will likely be at least somewhat better than that of 2009, I don't see why he wouldn't continue to improve, possibly by a significant amount.

It is a vast improvement on paper, but keep this in mind too:

In 2008, Campbell played the following pass defenses:

#1

#5

#32

#8

#2

#15

#3

#20

While one shouldn't expect Campbell to light up those teams, he got absolutely demolished nearly each and every game, and was mediocre even against Seattle and San Francisco. It is also important to remember that all of his good games, except the one against Dallas, came against fairly putrid pass defenses, and his YPA wasn't even impressive against Arizona.

Campbell played far worse defenses in 09 than he did in 08, as well.

A franchise-level, or even an above-average QB, should not curl up and die the way he did in 2008, and while he posted better numbers in 2009, how much of that was do to a significantly weaker slate of games?

We ran short, quick-developing routes out of necessity as a result of poor Oline play.

Take the game @ Dallas; When he immediately saw the blitz and hit Cartwright out of the backfield for a 29 yard gain, is that an example of "improved pass catchers," (cartwright is a #3 RB) or is that improved QB play by a guy who had trouble dealing with blitzes prior to 2009?

That's still a play that is less indicative of the QB's skill than his ability to execute a play designed to take advantage of a blitz, as well as Cartwright's ability to get more yardage.

Only around 5 sacks all year were self-inflicted, and he actually made the Oline look better than it was at times.

How so?

Opinions vary.As mentioned above, drives stalling around midfield and leaving points on the field was a HUGE problem in 2008 (I think we led the NFL in that category that year), but it was pretty much a non-issue in 2009 beyond the first few games.1)

We did score more during the last few games, true, but against mediocre pass defenses like Dallas, New Orleans, and Philly, and against the SD backups.

Again, grego, my contention is not the whole "prevent" thing (though I will say that many teams will start giving up short passes if they feel they are comfortable with a lead - this may be an implication that teams do not fear Campbell is able to bring a team back). My contention that he simply played a weaker schedule and thus put up better numbers.

Even though Grossman was far less accurate, I would compare Campbell (very loosely) to Rex Grossman in 2006. He performed admirably against soft pass defenses like San Francisco and New York (that year), but folded up against better teams. There is just too significant of a performance gap depending on the team he plays to really see Campbell as a QB that can lead a team far, especially considering he is 28; there are enough veteran QBs that can perform well against soft teams in the right system.

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grego

grego

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Again, grego, my contention is not the whole "prevent" thing (though I will say that many teams will start giving up short passes if they feel they are comfortable with a lead - this may be an implication that teams do not fear Campbell is able to bring a team back). My contention that he simply played a weaker schedule and thus put up better numbers.

ok. but if thats your 'reams of evidence' for inflated stats, i'm not sure its solid evidence.

this point is not something new, but worth noting here- isnt it just as likely that he put up more yards and TD's because he was in his second year of his third system in his 5th year in the NFL, and that is the natural and expected trajectory for such a player? isnt a year of playing in a system beneficial to a player?

of course it is.

another point is that when he was playing his best (by far)- between week 9 and week 14, he was playing against better defenses than he did in the beginning of the season, which is the opposite of your theory.

here is a chart of his play- http://www.hogshaven.com/2010/1/26/1270571/break-it-down-jason-campbells-2009?ref=yahoo

according to football outsiders, he played the following ranked pass D's- 27, 4, 15, 5, 9, 26 during that stretch.

the only thing that obviously changed for those games was the man calling the plays. this point is made more clear considering that lewis was brought in specifically because the front office believed- with good reason- that zorn couldnt do it.

looks like they were right. campbell played better- far better- against better competition, even as the team around him was falling apart to injury when we had a competent NFL playcaller.

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Gregpeck99

Gregpeck99

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Jason Candle is the QB that Todd Collins consistently outplayed 2007-2010.

I hope to God we have at least a QB competition this season. History indicates that Rex Grossman would beat out Candle.

Yea ... but beware of the "mystery" factor that protects the "worst" starting QB in the NFL and wards off all compeition.

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Newera

Newera

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The Shanahan's are keeping Colt Brennen in their hip pocket as their wildcard. And, if they don't move Jason, they both will compete -- with Colt probably given a more then fair opportunity to win the job. Which, in the past has never been the case.

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Gregpeck99

Gregpeck99

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Posted
The Shanahan's are keeping Colt Brennen in their hip pocket as their wildcard. And, if they don't move Jason, they both will compete -- with Colt probably given a more then fair opportunity to win the job. Which, in the past has never been the case.

Good Luck! I'll see it when I believe it.

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titus3

titus3

Posted
Posted
He had 18 turnovers last year, not 28.
I bet he is adding in the other 10 times Jason put the ball on the ground but we recovered.

I stand corrected. I edited my original post. My point still remains, JC's turnovers more than doubled.

2008 - 7 turnovers

2009 - 18 turnovers

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Brandon Lloyd Christmas

Brandon Lloyd Christmas

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The Shanahan's are keeping Colt Brennen in their hip pocket as their wildcard. And, if they don't move Jason, they both will compete -- with Colt probably given a more then fair opportunity to win the job. Which, in the past has never been the case.

thats honestly what it looks like to me too. why not cut him? if hes so terrible and isnt worth anything he'd have been cut.

maybe the shannys like something theyve seen about him on film and want to see colt vs campbell duke it out for the starting job and let bradford or clausen learn while they play.

id laugh my ass off if colt ended up beating out campbell for the starting nod, that would just be the icing on the hilarity cake.

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titus3

titus3

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Hey I am on you side, he still coughed up the ball 28 times.

Agree. The thing that bothers me is that on 3rd/4th downs, when plays have to be made he throws 8 picks. Granted, he did throw 6 tds also, but when you compare him to A. Rodgers who threw 14 tds and 1 int on 3rd/4th down plays you get the feeling that JC cannot make the big play when the team needs it.

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Passizle

Passizle

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I'll be glad when the draft gets here so the haters can truly self implode. I will just love it.

Why? You know as well as I do that if we do not take a QB with the #4 pick, all they will do is whip up another conspiracy theory about how the coaches are just doing their lip service to their guy, to drum up even more support and hope to "fool" another NFL FO for better trade value when the time is right.

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HailGreen28

HailGreen28

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Posted
Where is Todd Collins now?

Funny isn't it? TC clearly outplayed JC in 2007, and most of the games they both played in 2009. Yet here we go again after 5 years hoping to see if Candle finally "gets it".

Is this post a joke?

Simply based on the fact that one career backup that knew the OC's system out-played Candle, it's reasonable to assume that a one-time starter that knows the OC's system would out-play Candle as well.

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THE HAMMER'IN HOG

THE HAMMER'IN HOG

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Funny isn't it? TC clearly outplayed JC in 2007, and most of the games they both played in 2009. Yet here we go again after 5 years hoping to see if Candle finally "gets it".

Simply based on the fact that one career backup that knew the OC's system out-played Candle, it's reasonable to assume that a one-time starter that knows the OC's system would out-play Candle as well.

Good point!:)

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TheMan CC47

TheMan CC47

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I'll be glad when the draft gets here so the haters can truly self implode. I will just love it.

Even if we don't draft another QB, it won't mean that Campbell will be starting. If there is a true competition, I don't think JC stands a chance of beating Colt for the starting job.

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THE HAMMER'IN HOG

THE HAMMER'IN HOG

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Even if we don't draft another QB, it won't mean that Campbell will be starting. If there is a true competition, I don't think JC stands a chance of beating Colt for the starting job.

Funny I said the same thing to a friend of mine at the bowling alley tonight who is a huge Skins fan, there are a few of us here in North Jersey, he's really worried that the Rams will take Bradford, which I agree, but I told him open competition means the end of JC, I told him Colt will light it up!

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