ESPN via Adam Schefter: 1st round tender on Jason

[shannyman1]

I'm pretty sure Jason's agent/Allen are working the phones as we speak. BTW, ESPN's NFC West blog is reporting that ARIZONA is looking for two QB's....hmmm.

just my opinion but I think you guys are barking up the wrong tree. I think they have every intention of drafting a QB with that 4th pick or trading down and getting one in the 2nd round but either way I believe they plan on going with Campbell and have NO intention of trading Campbell. I think they would really like to see if he has more trade value with a little better year behind him next year. 20 TD passes this year in a four win season is generating little interest but 22 TD passes in a winning season will generate a WHOLE bunch of interest. i.e. Donavan McNabb this year. winning season/22 TD's

Campbell will stay here and I would bet on it. Just my opinion though.

[mi6]

Ideally, I would like to recoup the 1st, 3rd and 4th rounder we invested in Jason "the dud" Campbell.

He can't leave DC soon enough.

[RWJ]

just my opinion but I think you guys are barking up the wrong tree. I think they have every intention of drafting a QB with that 4th pick or trading down and getting one in the 2nd round but either way I believe they plan on going with Campbell and have NO intention of trading Campbell. I think they would really like to see if he has more trade value with a little better year behind him next year. 20 TD passes this year in a four win season is generating little interest but 22 TD passes in a winning season will generate a WHOLE bunch of interest. i.e. Donavan McNabb this year. winning season/22 TD's

Campbell will stay here and I would bet on it. Just my opinion though.

Poker faces say alot and Allen and Shanny both have that when it comes to saying one thing and meaning another. Again, as I posted earlier Jason value will make a statement IF no one calls to have him pay a visit. My thoughts are that both Allen and Shanny want a team to call so he can be traded. JMO I think they said all the right things to the media such as "JC is our our starter" so forth and so on to try and peak teams interest. Time will tell.

[GenMgr]

I wouldnt be surprised if Allen and the Rams make an arrangement in which the Rams take Bradford and trade his rights along with a player for Campbell, Carter and the 4th pick.

[Morneblade]

I wouldnt be surprised if Allen and the Rams make an arrangement in which the Rams take Bradford and trade his rights along with a player for Campbell, Carter and the 4th pick.

That's a stretch, but I could live with that. At least we get to draft a LT. Dont think the Rams would do that though, I suppose it would be dependent on the "player".

[fansince62]

And the second time would be when? The first attempt to trade was for Cutler in a three way deal of some sort with Tampa, but I'm not aware of a second attempt at a trade. Whatever the trade was to move up to draft Sanchez, JC wasn't a part of it. How very non-factual of someone who is preaching getting the facts straight. In fact, Cerrato said just the opposite.

Redskins.com April 25th

Asked by reporters if Jason Campbell would remain the starting quarterback, Cerrato replied: "Jason was always going to be the starter."

Yea...a FO pogue never hid intentions or long run plans. you nailed that one. the obvious "fact" remains, your sidebar notwithstanding, they tried to get rid of him. why would they do so? I note you scrupulously avoided answering that question.

and the point of my post....for the reading impaired....was to attack the notion that the holy saints of the statistician were aligning facts in some sort of incontrovertible argument...when the reality was their conclusions (actually their emotional attachments) were driving selective sets of "facts".

[wvtbred]

That's a stretch, but I could live with that. At least we get to draft a LT. Dont think the Rams would do that though, I suppose it would be dependent on the "player".

Yeah we get to draft LT in the 2nd with that scenario which is fine with me.

BTW I love the thinking of this because it gives both teams what they want plus takes any moves up to second and third out of play.

[hieverybody]

In the end, you resort to selected statistics because you can't answer the critics who point at mechanical and execution flaws that have plagued this QB - through all the OCs and variations in line play. And that is because....you can't recognize in yourself the very same insular process you accuse others of: you are emotionally invested in the debate itself and are willing to assume the conclusion drives the "facts".

I don't see how you can claim that JC supporters are using selected statistics. Here are his numbers, posted for the 1000th time.

Year...Yards....Comp%....Avg....TD....INT....FUM....1stDown%

2009...3618.....64.5.......7.1......20....15.....13.......36.7 (11th)

2008...3245.....62.3.......6.4......13....6.......7....... 32.0 (23rd)

2007...2700.....60.0.......6.5......12....11.....13.......36.5 (14th)

2006...1297.....53.1.......6.3......10....6.......1........32.9

When analyzing the quarterback, we need to focus on the future. Who will be the better QB in 2011/2012: JC, draft pick, or free agent? Disappointment about the pace of JC's progress is irrelevant - a sunk cost. The question must be: who will be better in 2011/2012? JC supporters simply point out that despite a declining supporting cast, Jason has improved statistically every year - not selective statistics - he has trended better in every category.

Arguments about mechanics or short passes are simply noise. The QB's job is to move the ball down the field, and JC does an average job of that. His YPA ranks 15th and he is 11th in first down percentage. Debates about 2007 are pointless because JC is not the same QB he was then - again, the focus should be on 2011/2012.

The weakest part of Jason's stats are past midfield, before the redzone. Is Jason a different QB at that spot in the field? Or is it more likely that the playcalling wasn't appropriate? Putting the ball in Jason's hands was more successful than running the ball in every single game situation last year except second down and 3-5 yards to go. Jason only needs a modest improvement over the next two years to become a top ten QB. Isn't that what we all want? A top ten QB in 2011/12?

[LadySkinsFan]

If the team wanted to keep JC they would have given him a new contract, not tendered him with a 1st round draft pick.

Also, I don't remember hearing that JC was the starter, just that he figured into the team's plans.

That plan could be trade, trade, trade.

[Reaper 21]

why do so many people hate jason campbell. the dude is an avearge qb, that's it. we treat him like he is at the bottom of the rut. and that just is not true, ask other fans of other teams and see how happy they get when you talk about rumors of thier team signing jc. he may get better too, he is still young its not like he is in his late 30's let him play.

[Reaper 21]

and if anybody says colt brennan i will cyber smack them. streight scrub.

[SkinsBoss]

why do so many people hate jason campbell. the dude is an avearge qb, that's it. we treat him like he is at the bottom of the rut. and that just is not true, ask other fans of other teams and see how happy they get when you talk about rumors of thier team signing jc. he may get better too, he is still young its not like he is in his late 30's let him play.

it's time to move on from the days of JC, let's draft Bradford and give him the reigns.

I'm surprised by all the JC supporters that they're not also lobbying for us to get Tebow perhaps the only other qb with as slow an approach as JC.

Cut the nonsense, let's get rid of JC, Brennan should be released, he's a CFL quarterback at best and let's move on at the position drfting Bradford and getting depth for him, no more JC and no more Brennan.

[TheItalianStallion]

A 5 win season is not something to be proud of with the numbers our defense put up. Look at the teams we played the first 6 weeks.

You mean the one the was in the bottom half of the league?

[dfbovey]

If the team wanted to keep JC they would have given him a new contract, not tendered him with a 1st round draft pick.

Also, I don't remember hearing that JC was the starter, just that he figured into the team's plans.

That plan could be trade, trade, trade.

Could also mean that this new coaching staff wants to see what he can do first before deciding whether he's worth a long term contract or not. Some feel the jury is still out on him.

[Reaper 21]

it's time to move on from the days of JC, let's draft Bradford and give him the reigns.

I'm surprised by all the JC supporters that they're not also lobbying for us to get Tebow perhaps the only other qb with as slow an approach as JC.

Cut the nonsense, let's get rid of JC, Brennan should be released, he's a CFL quarterback at best and let's move on at the position drfting Bradford and getting depth for him, no more JC and no more Brennan.

You want Sam Bradford to take the "reigns" you mean like a bull fighter, cuz that would be more appropriate cuz that little boy will get smacked with our line. JC is tough as nails you got to say that.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

When analyzing the quarterback, we need to focus on the future. Who will be the better QB in 2011/2012: JC, draft pick, or free agent? Disappointment about the pace of JC's progress is irrelevant - a sunk cost. The question must be: who will be better in 2011/2012? JC supporters simply point out that despite a declining supporting cast, Jason has improved statistically every year - not selective statistics - he has trended better in every category.

Your argument blithely assumes a QB that will turn 29 during the season has at least one or two more years of development time. 29 year old QBs with 50+ starts rarely make significant improvements in their game.

Arguments about mechanics or short passes are simply noise.

Furthermore, as I showed elsewhere, the bulk of his statistical improvement was in short passes under 10 yards. This would point not to significant improvement as a quarterback, but to significant improvement in his pass catchers.

And his mechanics are an issue insofar as they cause him to be sacked more.

and he is 11th in first down percentage.

This is inflated by his accuracy on short passes. Short passing games can rack up 2 or 3 first downs in a row, then stall at midfield.

Debates about 2007 are pointless because JC is not the same QB he was then - again, the focus should be on 2011/2012.

You are assuming this to be so. I think that it is clear that he had not improved from 2007 to 2008; he simply played in a more conservative system. He became better at throwing touchdowns in 2009, which is positive, but his pass-catchers improved as well and running the ball was simply not an option anymore.

The weakest part of Jason's stats are past midfield, before the redzone. Is Jason a different QB at that spot in the field? Or is it more likely that the playcalling wasn't appropriate?

As I explained elsewhere, the Zorn system of short passes and screens is good for negating both the weaknesses of the QB and line...except between midfield and the redzone, because that strategy has less room to be effective.

Putting the ball in Jason's hands was more successful than running the ball in every single game situation last year except second down and 3-5 yards to go.

Damning with faint praise.

Jason only needs a modest improvement over the next two years to become a top ten QB. Isn't that what we all want? A top ten QB in 2011/12?

Only if you take his current stats at face value (which there are reams of evidence why such stats are highly inflated) and ignore the fact that QBs of his age and experience VERY rarely improve further. Campbell is not 25 or 26, he is 28 going on 29. He is a veteran.

[hieverybody]

Your argument blithely assumes a QB that will turn 29 during the season has at least one or two more years of development time. 29 year old QBs with 50+ starts rarely make significant improvements in their game.

Actually 29 year old QBs who continue as starters almost always make improvements in their game because the position has such high mental demands compared with physical demands. And Jason doesn't need to make significant improvements, he simply needs two years of improving at the same pace he already has. Furthermore, that pace can be increased by improving the players around him.

Furthermore, as I showed elsewhere, the bulk of his statistical improvement was in short passes under 10 yards. This would point not to significant improvement as a quarterback, but to significant improvement in his pass catchers.

This would point to nothing in particular. It could be a case of Jason hitting his receivers in stride better, setting up screens better, or any number of things. Moreover, if it does relate someone to improvement in his pass catchers, then just imagine the stats Jason could have if his pass catchers were even average.

And his mechanics are an issue insofar as they cause him to be sacked more.

True, of course the line didn't help.

This is inflated by his accuracy on short passes. Short passing games can rack up 2 or 3 first downs in a row, then stall at midfield.

If you define short passes as those that lead to first downs, then I am fine with Jason throwing short passes. You are essentially criticizing him for being in a West Coast offense. I'm pretty sure that wasn't his fault.

You are assuming this to be so. I think that it is clear that he had not improved from 2007 to 2008; he simply played in a more conservative system. He became better at throwing touchdowns in 2009, which is positive, but his pass-catchers improved as well and running the ball was simply not an option anymore.

Providing statistical evidence is not "assuming" anything. You say that the system got "more conservative," but Jason's yards/completion went up by almost a yard from 2008 to 2009.

As I explained elsewhere, the Zorn system of short passes and screens is good for negating both the weaknesses of the QB and line...except between midfield and the redzone, because that strategy has less room to be effective.

By that logic, Campbell's stats should have been even worse in the redzone where there is even less room to be effective. Of course, the opposite was true and Campbell was fantastic in the redzone.

Damning with faint praise.

Game theory indicates the quickest and easiest way for the offense to improve is by improving the run game.

Only if you take his current stats at face value (which there are reams of evidence why such stats are highly inflated) and ignore the fact that QBs of his age and experience VERY rarely improve further. Campbell is not 25 or 26, he is 28 going on 29. He is a veteran.

Please demonstrate this "fact." If you'd like a list of quarterbacks who continued to get better as they turned 29 and older, I'd be happy to show you some. The fact remains that Campbell is less than two seasons away from being a top ten QB based upon his current rate of progress.

[hieverybody]

One final point before I go is that according to ProFootball Focus, Campbell's numbers when he threw the ball more than 20 yards down the field aren't that bad. His completion percentage is only 36%, but that's to be expected. Still, he has a 13.1 YPA (much more important than comp%) with 4 tds and 3 ints. Those deep numbers are comparable to Rivers.

[Chiefinonhaze]

Drafting a Quarterback in the first round could HELP Jason Campbell. Remember what happened to Drew Brees after they drafted Phillip Rivers?

[NoGravity]

. Jason only needs a modest improvement over the next two years to become a top ten QB. Isn't that what we all want? A top ten QB in 2011/12?

There is 32 starting QBs in the league. Being #10 is not all that praiseworthy. Also, when you think about it, you had Brees, Peyton, Favre, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Rodgers, Brady, Warner, Schaub, and Romo sits to pee. Then you have a HUGE drop. Can you honestly see Campbell doing better than any of the QBs I just listed?

Can you even say JC was an average QB last year? As I am not a Skins fan, I personally have no reason not to like the guy. But almost every game I've seen him in, he looks terrible for a good 80 percent of the game. 3 and outs, missing Santana Moss consistently on deep balls, moving the ball effectively when the game is well-over with (i.e. defenses going prevent on you), and my personal favorite, 3-4 yard passes on 3rd and longs that pad his completion percentage. Watch Ben when he's faced with a 3rd and 7+. He will never dump the ball off, and it pays off a majority of the time.

[titus3]

JC supporters simply point out that despite a declining supporting cast, Jason has improved statistically every year - not selective statistics - he has trended better in every category.

Except in turnovers. He had 18 turnovers last year versus 7 in 2008. He threw 8 picks on 3rd/4th downs when drives have to extended.

[TheItalianStallion]

Before I adress this, let me say that I'd be fine with drafting a QB

Your argument blithely assumes a QB that will turn 29 during the season has at least one or two more years of development time. 29 year old QBs with 50+ starts rarely make significant improvements in their game.

I see no reason why his trend of improving every year wouldn't continue. Look at his numbers during the 2nd half of 2008 on a "per game" basis, then look at those of 2009 (same crappy Oline and all) on a per game basis; it's a VAST improvement. When you consider that 2010's Oline will likely be at least somewhat better than that of 2009, I don't see why he wouldn't continue to improve, possibly by a significant amount.

Furthermore, as I showed elsewhere, the bulk of his statistical improvement was in short passes under 10 yards. This would point not to significant improvement as a quarterback, but to significant improvement in his pass catchers.

We ran short, quick-developing routes out of necessity as a result of poor Oline play. Take the game @ Dallas; When he immediately saw the blitz and hit Cartwright out of the backfield for a 29 yard gain, is that an example of "improved pass catchers," (cartwright is a #3 RB) or is that improved QB play by a guy who had trouble dealing with blitzes prior to 2009?

And his mechanics are an issue insofar as they cause him to be sacked more.

The only problem with his mechanics is that he still occasionally throws with that loopy windup release, though him throwing that way is much less common than it used to be. Only around 5 sacks all year were self-inflicted, and he actually made the Oline look better than it was at times.

This is inflated by his accuracy on short passes. Short passing games can rack up 2 or 3 first downs in a row, then stall at midfield.

There was a plethora of drives that stalled around the periphery of FG range back in 2008, only to stall and force us to either punt of have Suisham miss a long FG attempt. Incidents like that were rare in 2009; although we had trouble moving the ball, on the limited number of drives where we did moved the ball, we almost always came away with points - beyond the first few games, that is.

You are assuming this to be so. I think that it is clear that he had not improved from 2007 to 2008; he simply played in a more conservative system. He became better at throwing touchdowns in 2009, which is positive, but his pass-catchers improved as well and running the ball was simply not an option anymore.

Opinions vary.

As I explained elsewhere, the Zorn system of short passes and screens is good for negating both the weaknesses of the QB and line...except between midfield and the redzone, because that strategy has less room to be effective.

As mentioned above, drives stalling around midfield and leaving points on the field was a HUGE problem in 2008 (I think we led the NFL in that category that year), but it was pretty much a non-issue in 2009 beyond the first few games.

Only if you take his current stats at face value (which there are reams of evidence why such stats are highly inflated) and ignore the fact that QBs of his age and experience VERY rarely improve further. Campbell is not 25 or 26, he is 28 going on 29. He is a veteran.

1) If you're talking about him facing prevent D, the only game all year where we faced it was the Detroit game, and his stats were definetely inflated that game.

2) Campbell isn't the only QB to have been in that kind of situation in 2009.

3) It's also worth noting that 2009 was the best year in NFL history in terms of the league's collective QB production, so being in the top half of the league in pretty much every category meant more in 2009 than in other years.

[wvtbred]

and if anybody says colt brennan i will cyber smack them. streight scrub.

Didn't you just say the name you don't want to read

[grego]

Only if you take his current stats at face value (which there are reams of evidence why such stats are highly inflated)

i've been asking people for this evidence for months. the best response i got showed that he threw, possibly (and by the most liberal definitions of 'garbage time') 3 TD's in garbage time.

i really dont see how a QB who threw 4 TD's all year in the 4th quarter- and more yardage and TD's in both the 2nd and 3rd quarter compared to the 4th, can be accused of padding his stats.

and, like stallion said, even if he threw 3 TD's when the game was effectively out of reach, how does this compare with other QB's to make his stats inflated and theirs not?

the funny thing is, if someone is going to knock campbells game, they could start with his 4th quarter stats and have a legit argument. no need to make things up.

[mbws]

Except in turnovers. He had 28 turnovers last year versus 13 in 2008. He threw 8 picks on 3rd/4th downs when drives have to extended.

He had 18 turnovers last year, not 28.