The Grand Plan - you play to your strengths

[ceviker]

Apologies if this doesn't deserve its own thread but I've just been going over what the 'Skins have been doing to try and figure out the "Grand Plan", if you will.

First of all, I think when Zorn met with the coaches, Vinny, etc, they asked a simple question to kick it off - can the core players of this team win a championship in the next few years. Based on what they've done in the off-season, the answer was a resounding 'yes.' If the answer was no, I believe we would have gone in re-build mode, tried to trade some of our players, not sign any big free agents and try to stock-pile draft picks.

I think next came the break-down of our positions, from macro to micro. From a macro-perspective: top 5 defense, lower-middle of the pack offense. We've had a very solid defense for years and we have some great talent there but we've never been 'elite.' Only thing stopping us from that was lack of sacks and turnovers. I took a look at the overall stats for sacks and INTs - since 2000, Skins have finished in top 15 in sacks only TWICE, finishing 27th or worse FOUR times. INTs fared a bit better but not a lot - since 2000, 4 times in top 15, only once in top 10, 20 or worse 3 times. So the problem is easy really - get more sacks (pass rush) which will lead to more turnovers (theoretically) so you need a someone on the DL and someone who is a ball-hawk to become an elite defense.

I'll come back to the defense in a second. Offense is more complicated. When you analyze the offense, its hard to pick out one or two areas. Only area where you can say we're 100% set are RBs and TEs. The OL can be great, but its age showed at the tail-end of last year. The WRs (excluding Moss) are a huge question mark. ARE is not a legitimate 2nd WR in this league but would be great in the slot. Thomas, Kelly? Obviously they did nothing last year but we can't bail on them yet. Hopefully at least one of them emerges as a 2nd WR.

Of course then there is Jason Campbell, the QB, the most important position in football. This topic has been beaten to death here but there really is only one answer - we just don't know. Some of us see signs that he's going to make it. Some of us see the opposite. Me personally? I think he's a starter in this league, but not a pro-bowler. In any case, Zorn has said he's the unquestioned starter (at least to start the year) so we need to live with that for now.

So you can see why I say the offense is more complicated to analyze. We're not one player away from being an explosive offense. Having Fitzgerald is great but if your OL can't protect the QB or the QB can't make the pass, he's worthless.

So that leads us to the off-season. I think Zorn and the braintrust sat down and said let's play to our strengths. Our strengths are defense and the running game. If we can make our defensive elite, the sacks and turnovers they cause will lead to a shorter field and make life easier on the offense. Going back to our needs to become elite on D - a monster DL and a ball hawk corner. Enter Haynesworth and Hall. Yes, monster contracts. But both are young. I'm 99.9% certain Hall is going to play his heart out here since he's a local. Before listening to Haynesworth talk, I would say 50/50, but (and maybe its because of my burgundy glasses) after hearing him talk, he seems to have a desire to be one of the best ever and I say he's going to play really hard. We now have all the ingredients to be elite....

As with any plan, however, there are bumps in the road. Enter the Jason Taylor complex. I FIRMLY believe the Skins signed Haynesworth with the intention Taylor was going to be here. Skins would use a pick in the first round to select a LB to will Marcus' spot, and we'd be set. Quite frankly, I think this is where Vinny / braintrust messed up. Maybe it was the right move. Maybe brining in a hungry, eager Daniels will be better than an unmotivated, no heart-in-football Taylor. But I think the expectation was for Taylor to stay. So I think we sign Daniels and maybe someone else to play DE this year and take a DE with a high pick next year.

Switching back to offense, I think Dockery getting release was a gift from heaven to Buges and the Redskins. Even if they don't do anything else with the OL this year, its improved because of Dockery. I think Buges and co are happy with Jansen and Heyer this year. And I personally am ok with that. Depth is what worries me, but I think that's what you use your late round picks on this year for.

If the defense becomes elite this year and causes the sacks and turnovers as planned, I think, barring injury, we have "enough" on offense to be a contender this year. Yeah, we all wish we had better OL, QB, WRs, etc. but the reality is we cannot address all of those this off-season. If you have too many weak spots (weak spots meaning positions in which you're bottom 16), you need to go to re-build mode. I don't think the Redskins are nearly that bad and I Definetly don't think Zorn and co feel that way. Like I said, we're not "one player away", but I think we were two away from the defensive side and we got them. You play to your strengths and that's what the Redskins are trying to do. Let's just hope it works out.

[TheDiplomat]

Great Post bro. On a little side-note, some people also seem to downplay the importance of play-calling. Let's not forget Zorn has to improve on this. I give him a pass last year as a first year head coach, but coaches have to find a way to get guys open. Plenty of times last year I saw all-star guys and no-name guys on other teams wide open all over the field. The lowly Lions scored more points than us last year and they have less talent at each and every position on Off & Def than us (minus #1 WR) Zorn, get to work.

[SB17]

... we're not "one player away", but I think we were two away from the defensive side and we got them. ...

How many players away are we on the offensive side?

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

How many players away are we on the offensive side?

IMO, we're 3-4 starters away on offense.

[Veretax]

IMO, we're 3-4 starters away on offense.

Let Me Gues, RT, RG, C and a flip of a coin between RB and QB.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

Let Me Gues, RT, RG, C and a flip of a coin between RB and QB.

I'd substitute WR for RB but other than that...you're correct.

[TSO]

I'm just not that down on Campbell as so many are. I think he can be more than just a starter at QB. No QB in the league has had to deal with so much inconsistency... let him start in the same offense for two years straight. I like what I see from him, plus, he's really all about the team. You simply can't have enough of players with that kind of attitude and work ethic.

I'm of the school of thought that this year really hinges on our Oline and WRs. If just one of the two second-year WRs step up, we'll be a much better offense, that is of course, if our Oline can give Campbell just a bit more time and open up some more lanes for Portis.

[Misterwookas]

I think we done very well as far as our FA and offseason moves. After the draft, people are going to see a very upfront Redskins team. The defense will again be in the top 5 and this year will be the year that JC, Clinton, and Santana take the Skins to the promise land.

Hail!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Rhodus333]

I don't know how "set" we are at RB.......

Also, anyone else have that slightly icky feeling that we kept Taylor around just as an enticement to lure Haynesworth here, but never really intended to keep him? That situation, combined with Evans being allowed to leave, were the biggest messups so far this season i think

[Going Commando]

I'd substitute WR for RB but other than that...you're correct.

So possibly (probably?) 5 starters away? That's pretty much half the offense. That doesn't spell championship contender to me...

Maybe its not 5 though, Rabach can still start if he has really good players around him, and maybe we have the answer at WR on the roster.

[Going Commando]

I don't know how "set" we are at RB.......

Also, anyone else have that slightly icky feeling that we kept Taylor around just as an enticement to lure Haynesworth here, but never really intended to keep him? That situation, combined with Evans being allowed to leave, were the biggest messups so far this season i think

Taylor needed to go. Could you have stomached another 3 or 4 sack season from him next year while he took up 9 million dollars of roster room? He was playing way out of position here, we would have had to move him to an even more foreign SAM linebacker position just to justify starting him. Cutting him was the right move, it just sucks that we were fleeced a 2nd and 6th (or whatever it was) for him.

[ceviker]

I don't know how "set" we are at RB.......

Also, anyone else have that slightly icky feeling that we kept Taylor around just as an enticement to lure Haynesworth here, but never really intended to keep him? That situation, combined with Evans being allowed to leave, were the biggest messups so far this season i think

Portis is a top 5 RB in the league. Imagine if we actually had a passing game people respected and he didn't have to face 8 man sets all the time.

I agrree with a huge messup re. not keeping Evans. But I firmly believe we wanted and were expecting Taylor to stay here. Now why Vinny and Dan didn't talk to Taylor BEFORE signing Haynesworth is as big of guess as mine. If you talk with Taylor and he said no before, you could have kept your appointment with Canty and said "yeah, we're going after Albert but we also want you to play JT's position". Not sure how that would have worked cap-wise but I think we could have done it.

[SoCalSkins]

We are that much further away from the current NFC champions, that the evaluations would lead the team to say that the Cardinals are so much better than the Redskins? Beating them during the season is not relevant.

That might be a steep goal, so just getting to the NFC championship game would be a reasonable goal. So we are also that much worse than the Eagles? Sweeping them was a fluke as well?

[leesburgvaskinsfan]

I'm just not that down on Campbell as so many are. I think he can be more than just a starter at QB. No QB in the league has had to deal with so much inconsistency... let him start in the same offense for two years straight. I like what I see from him, plus, he's really all about the team. You simply can't have enough of players with that kind of attitude and work ethic.

I'm of the school of thought that this year really hinges on our Oline and WRs. If just one of the two second-year WRs step up, we'll be a much better offense, that is of course, if our Oline can give Campbell just a bit more time and open up some more lanes for Portis.

I'm with you both on this. Great post and reply! I also chuckled out loud about the Extremeskins membership pitchfork/torch riot comments...so true!

I watched the Dallas week four game again this weekend and I noticed that JC made some nice plays to keep the chains moving, managed the game well, and even in a hostile environment where he got sacked twice (once by Canty btw) he kept his cool and lead us to a hard fought victory.

Hail!

:point2sky

[SoCalSkins]

I'm with you both on this. Great post and reply! I also chuckled out loud about the Extremeskins membership pitchfork/torch riot comments...so true!

I watched the Dallas week four game again this weekend and I noticed that JC made some nice plays to keep the chains moving, managed the game well, and even in a hostile environment where he got sacked twice (once by Canty btw) he kept his cool and lead us to a hard fought victory.

Hail!

:point2sky

He also cried like an 8 year old girl in the locker room there the year before after throwing a pick to end the game.

You can't evaluate a player based on a single regular season game, but thus far, his bad games far exceed his good games.

The premise of the OP is pretty flawed. We are not "one player away" as long as you don't evaluate the QB in that evaluation.

[Justsomeguy]

How many players away are Arizona?

How about Pittsburgh?

Gmen?

Patriots?

...............................Exactly!!!

[ceviker]

He also cried like an 8 year old girl in the locker room there the year before after throwing a pick to end the game.

You can't evaluate a player based on a single regular season game, but thus far, his bad games far exceed his good games.

The premise of the OP is pretty flawed. We are not "one player away" as long as you don't evaluate the QB in that evaluation.

I didn't say we were one player away - in fact I said the opposite. I'm not pro-JC - I'm also not con-JC. If I were coach, he would be my starter going into this season but he would have a short leash.

[skinny21]

He also cried like an 8 year old girl in the locker room there the year before after throwing a pick to end the game.

You can't evaluate a player based on a single regular season game, but thus far, his bad games far exceed his good games.

The premise of the OP is pretty flawed. We are not "one player away" as long as you don't evaluate the QB in that evaluation.

Pretty sure this isn't a Campbell thread, or that the premise of the OP was that we're "one player away"... unless I misread the title and the really long opening post.

I think we're a RT and either RG or C away (I'd like to replace both fairly soon, but upgrading one could help mask the weaknesses of the non upgrade)... of course this is if one of the wrs can step up.

[Justin in NoCal]

My main concern is with Portis. He had close to his career high in carries last season and we all know the trend as of late in the NFL with workhorse RB's.

Shaun Alexander

'05: 27TD /370 carries/5.1ypc/16 games

'06: 7 TD/252 carries/3.6ypc/10 games

Larry Johnson

'06: 17TD/416 carries/4.3ypc/16 games

'07: 3TD/158 carries/3.5 ypc/8 games

I really hope this won't be the case with Portis this season but I can't say that I'm not worried, to say the least.

[Peregrine]

I think the thought process was more like "Hey, Hanyesworth is available! Hes big, lets get him!"

When your defense has been top 10 for 4 out of the past 5 years, and you still cant do anything on offense, spending all of your money on defensive talent makes about as much sense as sending me $1,000,000 dollars(I have the address if you need it). I also think you are way off base on Taylor. They had to release Taylor because they didnt have enough cap for Hall, much less to fill any other spot. It was either/or for Haynesworth and Taylor, once they got Haynesworth they HAD to.

[kingdaddy]

The Skins could have kept Daniels and Washington in the first place if they had just let go of Jason Taylor. Now, by pursuing both of them again, it makes me believe that the F.O. did intend to keep Taylor for this year. Now, by cutting him, we have lost 3 veterans instead of one (Taylor) or two (Marcus and Daniels).

It seems as though the entire league is now questioning JT's desire to play again.

Defensively, between Daniels, Buzbee, Wilson and maybe a draft pick or veteran free agent, we're going to have to make that work for this year. Maybe the answer for our d-line is quantity with a good rotation over a marquee name. Besides, we already have two marquee names with huge price tags on our d-line.

Offensively, I'm totally uncomfortable starting the season with Randle El, Thomas and Kelly opposite Moss. Jason Campbell needs more than that to succeed. Personally, I'd take a look at Tory Holt once he gets released. He'd be a nice stopgap before handing the job to an unproven Thomas or Kelly. Randle El would go to the 3 spot until Thomas or Kelly take it from him.

All that being said, we need more from Campbell this year. Understanding that he was in a new offense last year, we need him to extend plays along the lines of a Ben Roethlisberger. I also agree that the play calling has to improve. I'm confident that it will in Zorn's second year.

[Thinking Skins]

So possibly (probably?) 5 starters away? That's pretty much half the offense. That doesn't spell championship contender to me...

Maybe its not 5 though, Rabach can still start if he has really good players around him, and maybe we have the answer at WR on the roster.

I think Rabach is a good center. He just has problems with nose tackles and 3-4 defenses. I think he played against Pitt, Dallas, and Baltimore in a 3 or 4 week span. Add to that Shawn Rodgers in Detroit and he's gonna have some bad plays, but I think he's a decent center who doesn't really need to be replaced (but we do need some good depth behind him as he's getting up there in age).

[Thinking Skins]

We are that much further away from the current NFC champions, that the evaluations would lead the team to say that the Cardinals are so much better than the Redskins? Beating them during the season is not relevant.

That might be a steep goal, so just getting to the NFC championship game would be a reasonable goal. So we are also that much worse than the Eagles? Sweeping them was a fluke as well?

Who predicted the Cardinals would be SB contenders before the season?

So much goes into that stuff. The thing that I'm asking myself right now is are we a better or worse team right now than we were last year. I see us being the same or better in many positions.The only positions that I think we haven't gotten "better" at is RE and SLB. I think we'll address those in the draft though.

[Thinking Skins]

He also cried like an 8 year old girl in the locker room there the year before after throwing a pick to end the game.

You can't evaluate a player based on a single regular season game, but thus far, his bad games far exceed his good games.

The premise of the OP is pretty flawed. We are not "one player away" as long as you don't evaluate the QB in that evaluation.

If you're going to blame him for throwing that pick in the Dallas game in 07 (or the Tampa game in 07), then you've also got to give him credit for moving the team down the field in less than two minutes to be in position to score a TD. Maybe if we had some WRs he wouldn't need to force throws to Moss and Cooley (who are double and sometimes triple covered) in the red zone.

[Pimpey42000]

Yeah. I agree with your post in its entirety, definitely feel as if the ingredients the ownership felt needed where in Haynesworth and Hall. I kind of feel as if they slipped up in letting JT go. Hopefully they will be able to find replacements for MW and JT for better or worse. Hail to a great post.