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ESPN - How many pieces were the Redskins away from the Superbowl in 2014 Article

TexasSkinsFan

By TexasSkinsFan
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NewCliche21

NewCliche21

Posted
Posted

From the ESPN take

 

 

 

 

I agree with that assessment and don't understand why they said he was a BAD player. The guy who's 2nd in the league in rushing yards since his rookie year isn't a BAD player at least to me. That doesn't make him elite but the worst ranking? Even if Bang's assessment that it could have been because of fumbling

 

 

 

Both of your links include players who have been playing since well before 2012.

 

In 2014 -- and this thread is about 2014, not about earlier years where he was better  -- Morris was 6th in rushing attempts but only 11th in rushing yards.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/rushing/sort/rushingAttempts/seasontype/2

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/rushing/sort/rushingYards/seasontype/2

 

I am not defending PFF.  I am pointing out that total yards is a dumb way to evaluate a player, outside of fantasy football, because it's so heavily biased towards players who get lots of touches.

 

Football Outsiders ranked Morris as 23rd (out of 43) RBs last year, but their disclaimer is "These numbers do not separate the performance of a running back from the performance of his offensive line".

 

Hopefully our O-line gets a big upgrade in the draft, and both Morris and QB Redskins reap the benefits in 2015.

 

No, it's not about last year exclusively.  The post I quoted is quoted above yours, which was also the one quoted saying that it's just because Morris has gotten a ton of carries.

 

You and I are probably on the same page more than we're not, as I don't think that yards are the end-all be-all of stats (Portis brought a lot more to the table than just running), but I thought that it was somewhat insulting to Morris to infer that number of carries, which isn't his choice, was what got him a ton of yards.  You can hand the ball off a million times to any idiot, Morris actually does something with the opportunities he's given, and he should get credit for that.

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Peregrine

Peregrine

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The problem with saying "Well, 13 NFL teams use them so they must be good" is it assumes a lot of knowledge about that relationship.  If you have spent any brief period of time in business, you know very well that "I have 13 NFL teams as clients" most likely means "I have 13 guys that work for NFL teams that once paid me $20 for a report".  And if anyone thinks that NFL teams, with their vast resources, arent going to go sign up to a subscription to 20-30 different services in an attempt to corroborate data, they are kidding themselves. 

 

Also, you assume they use PFF for their opinions.  Whereas, from the sound of the article its much more about a bunch of guys who are willing to spend the time doing the grunt work coaches dont want to do.  For example, lets say you want to know how good your punter is at hangtime, you dont want to figure it out yourself, you hire PFF to calculate the hangtime for every punter in the NFL for every punt.  They report back, boom, you are a client.  It doesnt mean they have any respect for what they think of your player analysis.

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GibbsFactor

GibbsFactor

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C'mon.

Seriously.

I know we love our team.

And many think our players are better and performed better then they actually do/did.

But there are enough actual facts about PFF to avoid making claims that are known to be false.

No one is saying PFF is the end all be all.

And like any metric it has flaws.

But to dismiss them when 13 actual NFL teams use PFF metrics doesn't cast doubt their credibility in fact it does the opposite.

 

NFL teams aren't using PFFs grades or metrics.   NFL teams may use their advanced statistics which has absolutely no baring what so ever on this topic at hand which has been formulated by their player grades.  I promise you NFL teams are not using PFF for their grades.  PFF is grading these players based off a TV copy.     These grades are beyond a joke.

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darrelgreenie

darrelgreenie

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NFL teams aren't using PFFs grades or metrics.   NFL teams may use their advanced statistics which has absolutely no baring what so ever on this topic at hand which has been formulated by their player grades.  I promise you NFL teams are not using PFF for their grades.  PFF is grading these players based off a TV copy.     These grades are beyond a joke.

Your post contains 2 factually incorrect statements. Do some research. NFL team are using PFF's metrics. They double check their grades via all-22.

 

But sure, rah rah! PFF is a joke.

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nonniey

nonniey

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I can see why Morris can be graded as bad. He can't catch, he can't block and he also has a fumbling problem. He doesn't always help us.

Personally I would grade him as average, since he is very good as a rusher.

Uh  he blocks well probably better than the average starting RB in the league.

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Lombardi's_kid_brother

Lombardi's_kid_brother

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Morris doesn't have a fumbling problem.  Lost fumbles are a problem, fumbles where you can pick them up, which he does, aren't a big deal.  He also has improved catching, and I think he's a decent blocker

 

That's pretty much as wrong as you can be in a statement about football. Fumbles are somewhat random, but can certainly be classified as a strength or weakness for some players.

 

Recovering fumbles is 100 percent luck; there is no skill in that whatsoever.

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SteveFromYellowstone

SteveFromYellowstone

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Like I've said a million times....the 2014 roster was better then the 2012 roster......start with coaching and QB play.....get those two pieces and "average" players become good..."Bad" players become average.

 

Exactly...the Patriots would be a mediocre team without Brady. A true franchise QB covers up so many problems. Brady could take our roster to the playoffs

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ThomasRoane

ThomasRoane

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Really good find DG.  Reading the article I came away very impressed.  HUDL has that kind of detail as well along with video.  I give these guys a ton of credit because breaking down film is a very long, tedious process.  Generally, I spend about 20 minutes on one play when I grade film.  So, I'll backtrack on my comments about it being a SWAG.  Looks like they're basing their info on unbiased metrics.

 

And hey, the Redskins were 4 and 12 this year.  So how far off can they be?  We lost to Tampa for God's sakes!

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JoeSkins

JoeSkins

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13 teams use their material as a point of datum.  That doesn't tell me anything; we need context.  What does "trust" mean?  How much is it used?  How many other sources are NFL teams using besides PFF?  The article seems to be implying that PFF's analysis is highly valued, but the only noted uses are as a timesaver, rather than an analytical tool.  "I don't want to count how many times they ran draw out of trips, good thing these guys did it for me."

 

On the topic of their player participation ratings:  they're entirely subjective.  What's the threshold separating a +2 from a +1?  No one knows but the one guy making the call.  It's the same problem I have with ESPN's Total QBR stat:  they don't publish the formula because they know it comes down to subjective elements and is therefore not a statistic at all.

 

PFF's value is as a stat aggregator, like IRI or Nielsen.  I suspect that's how they're utilized at the NFL level.  I doubt Scot is looking at this article and saying "DeSean's average, he's getting top dollar, trade him."  Their value as talent or performance evaluators begs too many questions, which is why guys like Belicheck and Zimmer don't seem to take them seriously.

 

On a side note, let's not forget that the most celebrated use of statistical analytics in professional sports has not produced a World Series win.

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Califan007 The Constipated

Califan007 The Constipated

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That's pretty much as wrong as you can be in a statement about football. Fumbles are somewhat random, but can certainly be classified as a strength or weakness for some players.

 

Recovering fumbles is 100 percent luck; there is no skill in that whatsoever.

 

Fumble recovery is just as much about awareness as it is "luck". We've all seen guys standing around a fumble, unaware that it's right at their feet. It's also about keeping your head on straight when trying to recover one. Guys who insist on trying to pick it up and runwith it are far more likely to have the ball slip through their fingers than guys who just pounce on it and lay there.

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Taylor703

Taylor703

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That's pretty much as wrong as you can be in a statement about football. Fumbles are somewhat random, but can certainly be classified as a strength or weakness for some players.

Recovering fumbles is 100 percent luck; there is no skill in that whatsoever.

How is recovering a fumble "100 % luck"? It certainly takes skill and awareness.

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Califan007 The Constipated

Califan007 The Constipated

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How is recovering a fumble "100 % luck"? It certainly takes skill and awareness.

 

Yep...the difference between Sean Taylor picking up the fumble against the eagles and running it in for the playoff-clincing TD...and Andre Carter falling face-first into the turf while trying to recover a fumble against the Raiders 5 yards away from the end zone...is not luck lol.

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GibbsFactor

GibbsFactor

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Sure. ;)

 

Thanks for agreeing finally.   I used to be like you, a PFF apologist.   But it just doesn't make sense.  They can't grade NFL games based off TV copy.   And to say they go back and check their grades against the ALL 22 is silly too.  They are doubling their work?  How many of them are there?  Not many.   

 

Again.   Their advanced statistics are terrific.   Their player grades are laughable.   And I've caught them disrespecting their own player grades.    For instance, last year they rated Eli Manning three times as high as their grades would suggest.  Why?  Because he's Eli Manning.   Again... hogwash.

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Taft

Taft

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That's pretty much as wrong as you can be in a statement about football. Fumbles are somewhat random, but can certainly be classified as a strength or weakness for some players.

 

Recovering fumbles is 100 percent luck; there is no skill in that whatsoever.

 

I thought this was interesting, Advanced Football Analytics looked further into Sharp Football Analysis' damning DeflateGate article about how the Patriots fumble numbers are a massive outlier from the rest of the league.

 

The found that one team was equally an outlier for having BY FAR the most fumbles per offensive play in the league over the last 5 years, guess who?  The Redskins:

 

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/general/224-the-patriots-have-great-ball-security

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darrelgreenie

darrelgreenie

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...Again... hogwash.

 

I don't care what the article says.   They are grading players based off TV copy and have no idea what the player's responsibility is.   Hogwash.

 

With every post you make it clear that you don't know what you are talking about but you also make it clear that you aren't interested in the actual facts.

 

Cheers!

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Dont Taze Me Bro

Dont Taze Me Bro

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Morris doesn't have a fumbling problem.  Lost fumbles are a problem, fumbles where you can pick them up, which he does, aren't a big deal.  He also has improved catching, and I think he's a decent blocker

 

 

Any fumble is a problem, imo.  Still shows lack of basic technique, football security.  We just got lucky that he was able to jump on/pick up his own mistake some of those times.

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