2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[The Consigliere]

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Bama guys can be hit or miss. I mean some guys are just obviously gonna be great. Julio Jones, Jahmyr Gibbs, those type of guys. But their linemen are always tricky. We hit home runs with Allen and Payne but then you got guys like Mathis, Ryan Anderson etc.

You provide some good counters and your right. It's not true of everyone. Gibbs athletic profile was/is ridiculous, same with Jones, they had room to really grow into something special. But generally, most of the guys are more like the failed DB prospects and line prospects, where they are maxed as elite college players with just "starter worthy" NFL careers. 

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

The cupboard is bare, the defense was already awful when he was here, and its going to stay awful as we try to build an offense/OL for the new QB, we need picks/bullets to add assets that will be here 4+ years on rookie deals. There's  more value in bullets to blossom in '25-'28, then in the last edges of Allen's prime in '24-'25. 

 

I get what you say: chemistry, building block piece etc that can help create a solid core to build the future defense around and eventually replace, and I understand the value of that as your rebuilding a team, kind of like Darrell Green kept while Norv Turner was trying and failing to build a winner. All that being said, the team was the 31st best in the league with him occupying a very expensive part of it that will not be useful if/when we are good again. It's far better to cut costs, and invest in the future, then in keep paying for an expensive past and present. 

 

Man I hope you're right, it's so odd to come out on opposite ends of seemingly every argued topic, but here we are, I disagree on all of this. QB, what to do with Allen, and how long the rebuild will take.

 

I don't think we're looking at 10 wins until '26, and that's if literally everything or most things done this offseason, and '25, really hit. 

I think we'll have the same trajectory as the Lions. They had a bare cabinet 3 years ago and made sweeping changes. Got the GM and HC in year one, didn't win much, then continued to build the lines and went 9-8, then went for the big impact players and definitely did not go BPA and now they're hosting the Championship Game and possibly going to the SB.

 

If this defense adds a quality LBer, CB, FS, Edge, which is a lot, sure, but depending on the DC, that's a huge turn around if they nail it.

 

OL we have some pieces. Cosmi, TMac, Dotson, BRob and I think we build through the draft on offense. 

 

6 or 7 decent FAs, we have the cap to do it and a solid draft, with new coaching has us over .500 IMO. The following year we improve and challenge in the playoffs. 

 

I don't understand the "we're going to stay bad for a few years" crowd. Texans weren't packed with talent. They did pretty good with a rookie QB and HC.

 

And also for the record, I believe we draft Maye, I was only bringing up other possibilities that I do think are on the table.  

[The Consigliere]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

We have no idea how other teams will be and have no idea how some of our other players will respond under different coaching. I could see the Big 3 of the NFC having big fall off seasons next year due to a variety of reasons.

 

Such is the beauty of the NFL.

But even the big 3 are significantly better than us (and I'm not even sure we agree who they are). And I would argue most teams that had quick turn arounds had elite talent, or some huge advantage in play. Houston is a good contrary example, they do not have a great roster, at best just an adequate one, but what was really to their advantage was how god awful their division was: Colts lost Richardson and fell apart, Jacksonville imploded after an 8-3 start, and Tennessee had their worst season in a decade. There are some divisions where I could see a QB and coach combo changing things. Some examples would be:

Atlanta in the NFC South: decent roster, elite weapons, no QB, idiot coach. They could flip quickly with a great hire and a great coach.

 

But we are in the east with excellent if underperforming teams in Philly and Dallas. We aren't leaping in front of either of them, not yet, though if they fall by '25 or '26, we could. I could see us as more quick flippable in the AFC South and NFC South, but there are some divisions where we'd be rock bottom: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, NFC North, NFC West, and yes, even the East, where only 1 of the 3 teams is actually run by intelligent people (philly's GM if not coach). 

 

I take solace in the knowledge that the Cowboys will ruin this build, Philly is gonna get messy w/the dissension and the Giants just aren't run very well, period. We can catch them, but it's gonna take a few offseasons to do it. 

[Warhead36]

I'm not banking on having a turnaround season. I'm just saying this notion that we're automatically going to suck the next two years is not necessarily correct.

 

Personally I think we'll be around 7-10 this year and push for the NFC East in 2025 where we start a mini run of dominance because our team upswing will coincide with the Cowboys and Eagles downswings(and you can't trust the Giants at all although I do like Schoen and Daboll). That is of course under the assumption that Ben Johnson and Drake Maye/Jaden Daniels combo will pan out.

[88Comrade2000]

We have to many holes to turn it around in one year.

 

Here’s the trajectory that seems realistic.

 

24: Rookie QB gets acclimated to nfl and Ben sees which holdovers mesh with his new guys.  6-11/7-10

 

25: Further purge of holdovers that didn’t mesh. 2nd year of free agency/draft under Adam and Ben.  QB solidifies himself as our franchise qb. We go 9-8/10-7 as a wild card.

 

26: Year 3 of Ben and Adam.  We have our core in place ready to make a run.  Free agency would only be to fill a hole. 12-5/14-3 and we start our run of challenging for the SuperBowl. 

[philibusters]

32 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

We have to many holes to turn it around in one year.

 

Here’s the trajectory that seems realistic.

 

24: Rookie QB gets acclimated to nfl and Ben sees which holdovers mesh with his new guys.  6-11/7-10

 

25: Further purge of holdovers that didn’t mesh. 2nd year of free agency/draft under Adam and Ben.  QB solidifies himself as our franchise qb. We go 9-8/10-7 as a wild card.

 

26: Year 3 of Ben and Adam.  We have our core in place ready to make a run.  Free agency would only be to fill a hole. 12-5/14-3 and we start our run of challenging for the SuperBowl. 

 

i agree the roster has holes.  But its the NFL.  With injury luck, close game luck, and reasonably solid play from the rookie QB, we could go 10-7 or 11-6.   I wouldn't bet on it, I would guess the most likely scenario is we go 7-10 or something like that next year, but its the NFL where they is pretty good parity, so injury and close game luck can turn a 7-10 team into a 11-6 team.   

[The Consigliere]

If the build works, and in retrospect 2-4 years later, we'd give the first two offseasons a B or higher grade (especially outside of QB (if you nail QB, you tend to want to automatically give yourself an A): 

 

'24: 5-12 or 6-11

'25: 6.5-8.5 wins

'26: Double Digit wins

 

The Lions build intrigues me because they definitely had some misses, but hit it big anyway, I think mostly because they hit a grand slam with Amon Ra in round 4, had a good OL in place, and then added transformative TE and RB prospects to make their O hard to defend, all while getting very little out of a WR who was drafted hurt and then got suspended for gambling and only recently started to produce in Jameson Williams (a guy who had a similar grade to Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson from the '22 class). Exciting. Do I think we can do what they did? Not really. I think our position groups are just weaker in general. We don't have much and we don't have much anywhere. They still had interesting assets early on, some good lineman, some good weapons, a franchise QB in Stafford, a franchise TE in Hockenson, a hyper elite offensive lineman etc. They had decent rb group, they were similarly blah but not horrible at WR, they had some talent on defense with upside. 

 

When I look at our roster I see a lack of depth almost anywhere, and very few guys other teams would want to start. Only a handful and most of those guys are too old to be long term helpful which is why I think it will just take longer. We'll see. The schedule is ridiculously easy, so that's a help, but we're also 31st in the league at this point, so as previously mentioned, we're the "W" written in ink by teams right now who are looking at the '24 schedule. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

19 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

We have no idea how other teams will be and have no idea how some of our other players will respond under different coaching. I could see the Big 3 of the NFC having big fall off seasons next year due to a variety of reasons.

 

Such is the beauty of the NFL.

 

the idea that we were bemoaning for years that Montez Sweat is just a good edge player but nothting great and then turns great in a heartbeat wearing a different uniform tells all to me.

 

Not that I think dudes like David Mayo are secretly London Fletcher.  But this team's defense was #3 the season before without Chase Young.    We took two defenders with the first two picks in 2023 and the defense oddly fell off a cliff.

 

I think this defense can return to respectibility in short order.

[Skinsinparadise]

18 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

 

When I look at our roster I see a lack of depth almost anywhere, and very few guys other teams would want to start. Only a handful and most of those guys are too old to be long term helpful which is why I think it will just take longer. We'll see. The schedule is ridiculously easy, so that's a help, but we're also 31st in the league at this point, so as previously mentioned, we're the "W" written in ink by teams right now who are looking at the '24 schedule. 

 

 

 

The idea that you can win in this league without a QB is outdated.  Very 1980s-1990 as you point out.

 

But also the idea that you can't rebuild fast and it takes a long time is also outdated.  Very pre 2015.    

 

As Randy Mueller, ex-GM who worked in multiple eras pointed out.  It's different now than years back.  The cap increases much more -- which also gives you more opportunity to exploit that with cash deals.  College schemes are closer now to the pros and draftees make a quicker impact.  More trades happen.  Much more opportunity to build fast.  Years ago rebuilds was 3-5 years.  Now you can do it in 1-2 years. 

 

Almost everyone thought the Texans would have the first pick in the draft this year.  Didn't happen.  Guys like Nico Collins who wasn't that hot previously became a star among other things.  So yeah who knows maybe Dotson emerges or name that player here thanks to better coaching.   

 

Part of the charm of why some feel this is this best spot to come isn't because they are like forever from being good again.  Peters talked about it.    It's because they are set up for a quick rebuild picking #2 if they hit on that QB.  the most cap space in the NFL.  5 top 100 picks.

Edited January 26 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

17 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

i agree the roster has holes.  But its the NFL.  With injury luck, close game luck, and reasonably solid play from the rookie QB, we could go 10-7 or 11-6.   I wouldn't bet on it, I would guess the most likely scenario is we go 7-10 or something like that next year, but its the NFL where they is pretty good parity, so injury and close game luck can turn a 7-10 team into a 11-6 team.   

 

Agree.

 

A.  We used to think our receivers are really good.  One bad year scheme wise with an offense that doesn't feature the WRs doesn't makes me down all of a sudden on Terry and Dotson.  Also, it's actually a loaded draft for WR and a decent FA crop.  The odds that are WR corp is above average next year is good.

 

B.  Robinson, Rodriguez IMO are good power backs.  I think it was Keim if I rememeber right but maybe it was someone who works for another team who told him Robinson could be a star powerback if used properly.

 

C. O line needs to be reworked.   That's a key aspect for me of the cap and draft picks.  Cosmi looks like a star guard   Leno is good enough at LT.

 

D.  TE is just OK.  Needs rework

 

E.  DT's among the best in the league

 

F.  Good talent on safery when Forrest comes back.

 

G.  Need an edge, CB, LB.  that's what I'd dedicate cap room too

 

All needs on a team never gets fixed.  This team will have weaknesses like every team but i do think they can fix enough where it would take two seasons top to be a contender assuming of course they succeed at QB. 

 

 

Edited January 26 by Skinsinparadise

[mhd24]

55 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree.

 

A.  We used to think our receivers are really good.  One bad year scheme wise with an offense that doesn't feature the WRs doesn't makes me down all of a sudden on Terry and Dotson.  Also, it's actually a loaded draft for WR and a decent FA crop.  The odds that are WR corp is above average next year is good.

 

B.  Robinson, Rodriguez IMO are good power backs.  I think it was Keim if I rememeber right but maybe it was someone who works for another team who told him Robinson could be a star powerback if used properly.

 

C. O line needs to be reworked.   That's a key aspect for me of the cap and draft picks.  Cosmi looks like a star guard   Leno is good enough at LT.

 

D.  TE is just OK.  Needs rework

 

E.  DT's among the best in the league

 

F.  Good talent on safery when Forrest comes back.

 

G.  Need an edge, CB, LB.  that's what I'd dedicate cap room too

 

All needs on a team never gets fixed.  This team will have weaknesses like every team but i do think they can fix enough where it would take two seasons top to be a contender assuming of course they succeed at QB. 

 

 

 

B-Rob's pass catching ability was the stunner of the past year.  

[Darrell Green Fan]

20 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

But even the big 3 are significantly better than us (and I'm not even sure we agree who they are). And I would argue most teams that had quick turn arounds had elite talent, or some huge advantage in play. Houston is a good contrary example, they do not have a great roster, at best just an adequate one, but what was really to their advantage was how god awful their division was: Colts lost Richardson and fell apart, Jacksonville imploded after an 8-3 start, and Tennessee had their worst season in a decade. There are some divisions where I could see a QB and coach combo changing things. Some examples would be:

Atlanta in the NFC South: decent roster, elite weapons, no QB, idiot coach. They could flip quickly with a great hire and a great coach.

 

But we are in the east with excellent if underperforming teams in Philly and Dallas. We aren't leaping in front of either of them, not yet, though if they fall by '25 or '26, we could. I could see us as more quick flippable in the AFC South and NFC South, but there are some divisions where we'd be rock bottom: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, NFC North, NFC West, and yes, even the East, where only 1 of the 3 teams is actually run by intelligent people (philly's GM if not coach). 

 

I take solace in the knowledge that the Cowboys will ruin this build, Philly is gonna get messy w/the dissension and the Giants just aren't run very well, period. We can catch them, but it's gonna take a few offseasons to do it. 

 

That was a really good point about the Texans playing in a really weak division, honestly I had not thought of that.  But they did win a playoff game which shows they are legit.  

 

Put me in the camp that believes with better coaching and great personnel folks we can turn this around fairly quickly, assuming the QB hits. Which of course is the key to everything.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Brian Robinson's comp. actually lines up really well with David Montgomery. We just need our Jahmry Gibbs. We don't need to spend a high pick on that guy, but I think a gadgety speed back would be a nice addition. Imagine having Achane and Robinson? Achane was drafted in the 3rd. So many examples of 3rd round RBs hitting over the years. I would target RB with one of those R3 picks UNLESS we end up signing a top tier guy in FA.

[Warhead36]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Brian Robinson's comp. actually lines up really well with David Montgomery. We just need our Jahmry Gibbs. We don't need to spend a high pick on that guy, but I think a gadgety speed back would be a nice addition. Imagine having Achane and Robinson? Achane was drafted in the 3rd. So many examples of 3rd round RBs hitting over the years. I would target RB with one of those R3 picks UNLESS we end up signing a top tier guy in FA.

Yeah Id love a speed back in rd 3 or 4. Thats usually a sweet spot for em. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah Id love a speed back in rd 3 or 4. Thats usually a sweet spot for em. 

 

Yeah as dynamic as Gibbs can be I will always believe he was overdrafted.  As you say you can find similar, or at least 85% of the production, without spending a mid-first round draft pick.  

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, mhd24 said:

 

B-Rob's pass catching ability was the stunner of the past year.  

 

It's funny my lesson to myself in camp is to encode everything I see and stop marrying optimism to it.

 

When I saw Haskins in camp, i talked about his bad practices but also highlighted his good practice in the mix

 

Watching both Fitz and Heinicke in practice they were wildly inconsistent.  And i mentioned it but i didn't get as negative as I should have been

 

I did mention last summer, Bieniemy's offense looked vanilla and basic.  I've seen Jay's and Turners, etc previously and Jay's actually was really the more inventive one gauging by practice alone.  But lol, saying something like that would sound uncool at that time.  So while I mentioned it, I didn't really play up that point.

 

Brian Robinson was catching everything in practice, I mentioned that.  it reminded me ironically of the year where Kirk was throwing a zillion balls in practice to Chris Thompson and that played out that season.

 

Lesson to myself put more stock in camp -- and not just the good stuff, the bad stuff, too. 

Edited January 26 by Skinsinparadise

[philibusters]

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's funny my lesson to myself in camp is to encode everything I see and stop marrying optimism to it.

 

 

 

I haven't gone to camps recently so I don't really have any first hand knowledge, but I think its probably impossible me to not filter the information I am getting through an optimistic lenses.  I am not a major homer or anything like that, but its so difficult to not be a homer at all in the offseason.  Once the season starts and the losses come in, its easier to be realistic though some fans take that too far and over react to losses IMO.

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

Yeah as dynamic as Gibbs can be I will always believe he was overdrafted.  As you say you can find similar, or at least 85% of the production, without spending a mid-first round draft pick.  

I think its fine drafting a talented RB high in the 1st when you already have a good team and just need that one last x factor to take you over the top. You're getting 4, possibly 5 years of high quality play for fairly cheap and then you can just let them walk.

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

the idea that we were bemoaning for years that Montez Sweat is just a good edge player but nothting great and then turns great in a heartbeat wearing a different uniform tells all to me.

 

Not that I think dudes like David Mayo are secretly London Fletcher.  But this team's defense was #3 the season before without Chase Young.    We took two defenders with the first two picks in 2023 and the defense oddly fell off a cliff.

 

I think this defense can return to respectibility in short order.

I think, and I'll continue to say this, that people just flat out overrated his impact. He is good, he's basically 2 tiers below the highest end: there is HOF/All Pro, and perenial pro bowler, and he's the next guy, sometimes pro bowler. He's the guy that gives you double digit sacks, but isn't a threat to be a crazy pass rush weapon. He's good? Very good or great? I'm highly skeptical, and the Bears schedule was flat out cake this past season, the defense improved because #1 Fields was borderline competent in the 2nd half, #2 the schedule offered a ton of patsies, and #3 Sweat improved an already solid defense to a good one.

 

I don't see it with us. What makes our defense good next year? Aging DT's? No Edge rushers? Blech at LB, a secondary that was abused? I think we can improve from horrific to below average if we hit on FA's, and a draft pick or two, and just with competent coaching (Del Rio always struck me as a dinosaur, an even worse one than Rivera), so that will help, but that's a big climb after taking two of our five most talented players away and adding nothing of note for years. 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The idea that you can win in this league without a QB is outdated.  Very 1980s-1990 as you point out.

 

But also the idea that you can't rebuild fast and it takes a long time is also outdated.  Very pre 2015.    

 

As Randy Mueller, ex-GM who worked in multiple eras pointed out.  It's different now than years back.  The cap increases much more -- which also gives you more opportunity to exploit that with cash deals.  College schemes are closer now to the pros and draftees make a quicker impact.  More trades happen.  Much more opportunity to build fast.  Years ago rebuilds was 3-5 years.  Now you can do it in 1-2 years. 

 

Almost everyone thought the Texans would have the first pick in the draft this year.  Didn't happen.  Guys like Nico Collins who wasn't that hot previously became a star among other things.  So yeah who knows maybe Dotson emerges or name that player here thanks to better coaching.   

 

Part of the charm of why some feel this is this best spot to come isn't because they are like forever from being good again.  Peters talked about it.    It's because they are set up for a quick rebuild picking #2 if they hit on that QB.  the most cap space in the NFL.  5 top 100 picks.

I don't really think so. I will freely admit I think the Texans doing what they did was crazy, and not so far off from what we did but with one big difference. The Texans division was easily one of the two worst in football. Tennessee, Indy and Houston were all bottom 5 teams in the league this year, or last, or both in the past two years, and the Jags within four years of the present. It provided an opportunity for a leap: last place schedule+ a division of doormats. Still took two miracles: a litany of injuries in Indy, and an epic collapse by Jacksonville to make any of it possible. I took Houston at near +400 on a bet back after Halloween for that very reason, and hit on the bet (division winner) after looking at their schedule. I just wish I bet more.

 

Our division has a super bowl entrant that imploded this year and were still 10-1 in November, a Super Bowl contender in Dallas, and a train wreck in the Giants. Its not the same thing, even a little. Can we turn it around quick? Hmmm, the schedule is as easy as possible acknowledging we do have 4 tough games automatically in division. But I'm skeptical. Its easier to turn it around quick these days in the past, no doubt, but the combo of a cupboard bare roster, no QB until maybe now, and a tough division, just color me highly skeptical. I know it can happen, and I'd be buying if we were in the AFC or NFC South, but we're not. 

[The Consigliere]

I should add, nearly every year houses 1 surprise playoff team. 

'23 had the Lions, Packers, and Texans, Lions werent a huge suprise, but still kinda, the latter two were.

'22 had the Giants

'21 had the Bengals

'20 had the Redskins and Browns

 

If you scroll through, you'll find them, so there is always a what the hell team or two that make runs, the super bowl loser curse seems to be a real thing etc. 

 

I just don't think we're set up to get to .500 next year, even w/the easy schedule, cupboard is too bare, division is too good. We'll see. I tend to waver over what could happen in '25 if we get a lot of the offseasons of '24 and '25 right. It might just take two years, I may be too conservative, we'll see. I'd prefer 3 just because I think we'll have a better build, but if we're good earlier, fine by me. 

 

[88Comrade2000]

The only surprise with Lions is that they are in the nfc championship game, they were favs to win their division.

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree.

 

A.  We used to think our receivers are really good.  One bad year scheme wise with an offense that doesn't feature the WRs doesn't makes me down all of a sudden on Terry and Dotson.  Also, it's actually a loaded draft for WR and a decent FA crop.  The odds that are WR corp is above average next year is good.

 

B.  Robinson, Rodriguez IMO are good power backs.  I think it was Keim if I rememeber right but maybe it was someone who works for another team who told him Robinson could be a star powerback if used properly.

 

C. O line needs to be reworked.   That's a key aspect for me of the cap and draft picks.  Cosmi looks like a star guard   Leno is good enough at LT.

 

D.  TE is just OK.  Needs rework

 

E.  DT's among the best in the league

 

F.  Good talent on safery when Forrest comes back.

 

G.  Need an edge, CB, LB.  that's what I'd dedicate cap room too

 

All needs on a team never gets fixed.  This team will have weaknesses like every team but i do think they can fix enough where it would take two seasons top to be a contender assuming of course they succeed at QB. 

 

 

1. My concern with McLaurin is that 70th in target separation stat, and his age when the season kicks off (29). Not great. So even if he does bounce back, there's not much runway left to that career as an elite WR, if any. I posted earlier that the latest study on WR production, this one out of Apex found that even at the lowest levels of elite production, essentially about 79% of the guys doing it are age 21-27. We've likely seen the best of him. A chance we get another great season out of him now potentially landing his first quality QB ever, we'll see. The other piece is, I think he had to being playing hurt all year. I imagine the same with Doston (59th in separation). I think we'll see improvement, but not to good, I think it will be to below average or if we're lucky, average. 

 

2. I want to see if Robinson's production last year is sticky. Unfortunate reality is this RB class is awful. So we either pick up short term help in free agency, indulge a day 3 dart throw, or go after my favorite target, Jonathan Brooks, but I expected more of a discount because of the torn ACL. If we can't take him late on day 2, I'd just pass entirely. '25 aint great either but its better. 

 

3. OL Biggest problem to me beyond the fact that the line sucked is that it likely means our 2nd unit is useless. Good news is that as you say, we have an excellent guard, adequate affordable cover at LT, and we have basically an extra 3rd round talent in Stromberg who hopefully can be a plug in play interior starter at an average level or better. This needs a ton of attention, both for starters (at least 2), and depth (tons). 

 

4. TE: I'd say its worth than that. We have a couple of jags and an aging, half way decent guy in Thomas whose contract wraps after this season. I'm a bit bummed we didn't get any of the studs from last year, as this year, beyond Bowers, there are some interesting guys, but nobody in that Laporta, Mayer, Kincaid tier. Its too close to a dart throw to me. 

 

Defense is basically yuck other than the DT's who are at the tail end of their primes and a couple promising guys in the secondary who could be better with better coaching and scheme. 

 

Not great at all, not any elite anything, and not much that's good AND young if anything. Not great. So glad we have some extra picks, and a GM whose open minded, flexible and insightful historically. 

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Brian Robinson's comp. actually lines up really well with David Montgomery. We just need our Jahmry Gibbs. We don't need to spend a high pick on that guy, but I think a gadgety speed back would be a nice addition. Imagine having Achane and Robinson? Achane was drafted in the 3rd. So many examples of 3rd round RBs hitting over the years. I would target RB with one of those R3 picks UNLESS we end up signing a top tier guy in FA.

They're not in this class. This class has nothing remotely close to Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift. At the top end tier of talent, it's the worst class of RB's to come out since the notorious Black Hole of 2009-2014 when everything class was total --- for a half decade. It's reminiscent of 2016, if there hadn't been a Zeke or Henry. I like Jonathan Brooks, and if that guy was still on the board, I'd take him with the Niners compensatory or our 4th, guy was going to be that top 50 overall RB, him and Henderson were the only guys who ever had a chance of genuinely being graded as top 50 talents, but otherwise, the class is basically trash in terms of guys with those Gibbs, Bijan, Taylor, Etienne, Walker, Hall type ceilings. There's nobody, as a prospect, that grades close to any of them. None of them. The best of them are 3rd round maybe types, so in that sense, just like Robinson, it's reminscent of the '19 class where you had speculative pick with Josh Jacobs that was all projection, then high floor Monty, and moderate floor, higher ceiling Sanders who largely busted. It sucks. We're gonna have to wait, or dart throw on day 3 unless we target Brooks, because nobody is expected, to ever pan out to that level, still could happen, but none of these CV's is even close to those high end guys your hoping for when they came out. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I think its fine drafting a talented RB high in the 1st when you already have a good team and just need that one last x factor to take you over the top. You're getting 4, possibly 5 years of high quality play for fairly cheap and then you can just let them walk.

Never worth it in the high first. Ever. The draft capital is simply too valuable, and the RB age cliff is 26, your going in admitting that you will let this guy go after his rookie option, or you're okay for paying him for past production and future sharp decline. 

 

What I can get with, if its the right guy (so a Taylor in '20, Etienne in '21, Hall and Walker in '22, Gibbs and Bijan in '23), is to use a late first because the rookie option makes the back more valuable than if they're an early 2nd like say, Chubb was. With that late first, you get there 5 year prime, all of it. If you draft them in the 2nd, once you let them go, you might miss a year or two of their prime, which is worth it because you escape the downfall of paying them that second Gurley/Zeke contract. So I can get w/what the Jags did with Etienne (especially if they had traded down a bit more). If this draft had a Hall, a Walker, or a Taylor, I'd be up for trading up from 36, to the late 1st and snagging them, but it doesn't (and honestly, I'd be more up for it if we were two years further down the road, I don't like the idea of throwing away nearly half of a players prime on a team coming off a 4-13 year, would rather get the stud RB when we are 7-10 and ready to go 11-6 or 10-7 the next season, then we get the prime when we can actually use it. You can't always time these things perfectly, but honestly, the fact that Robinson's deal expires after '25 is perfect, if the build is good, we can draft his replacement in either '25 or '26).