2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[bearrock]

An open question for all of the draft gurus:  If we pick 4th and suppose it's clear that QBs will go 1, 2, 3.  Would you prefer to stay 4th and pick Harrison Jr., trade up, or trade back (assuming typical trade value for trade up or down, whatever that may be)?  If you prefer to trade up, is it for any of the 3 QBs or just 1 or 2 of the 3 QBs?

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 minute ago, bearrock said:

An open question for all of the draft gurus:  If we pick 4th and suppose it's clear that QBs will go 1, 2, 3.  Would you prefer to stay 4th and pick Harrison Jr., trade up, or trade back (assuming typical trade value for trade up or down, whatever that may be)?  If you prefer to trade up, is it for any of the 3 QBs or just 1 or 2 of the 3 QBs?

I am not a guru by any stretch, except maybe a Hoodoo one.

 

Too many variables in your scenario. What does it cost to move up? Who are we getting in the trade up? How much value are we getting in the trade down? Hw far down are we moving? 

 

Can't really answer without knowing. Harrison is a spectacular prospect, though. 

[Idaho fan]

If I was in Vegas I’d happily put $10k down on the money line.  I’m it’s basically free money. 

[bearrock]

14 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

I am not a guru by any stretch, except maybe a Hoodoo one.

 

Too many variables in your scenario. What does it cost to move up? Who are we getting in the trade up? How much value are we getting in the trade down? Hw far down are we moving? 

 

Can't really answer without knowing. Harrison is a spectacular prospect, though. 

 

I think there's obviously variance in trade scenario and outliers (like our trade with the Rams), but there's a general range for a fair value trades and that's why I added the qualifier assuming typical trade value.  (Cost to move to 1 from 4 would likely entail 4th pick, day 2 pick this year, next year's first and another 3rd or 4th. Pick swap with 3 would be probably couple of 3rd/4th round picks with another day 2 pick next year.  4th to 2nd would obviously be somewhere in between.)

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 minute ago, bearrock said:

 

I think there's obviously variance in trade scenario and outliers (like our trade with the Rams), but there's a general range for a fair value trades and that's why I added the qualifier assuming typical trade value.  (Cost to move to 1 from 4 would likely entail 4th pick, day 2 pick this year, next year's first and another 3rd or 4th. Pick swap with 3 would be probably couple of 3rd/4th round picks with another day 2 pick next year.  4th to 2nd would obviously be somewhere in between.)

Again, that is one variable. And trade ups at the top of the draft where QBs are involved don't really have a "general range." You're going to pay more to move up for Caleb Williams than you would have for Jared Goff. 

[HTTRDynasty]

Patriots just scored a TD on the opening kickoff. Dare I say… there’s some hope they could steal one.

[Conn]

Patriots haven’t quit…and the Bills are one of those weird teams who can compete with the best some weeks, and throw up unexplainable turds other weeks. 
 

Still unlikely, but should be fun given the Pats D is really good and Allen has a propensity to **** his pants once in a while. A ST’s TD is a good start. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

The little I watch of Arizona's offense I always end up hating their play calls. 

 

First and goal from the 2.5, they call a weird drop back, roll out which leads to a sack. Second and goal from the 12, a straight run for 2 yards. 3rd and goal from the 10 a screen pass with no hope of scoring.

 

Turrible.

[bearrock]

12 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Again, that is one variable. And trade ups at the top of the draft where QBs are involved don't really have a "general range." You're going to pay more to move up for Caleb Williams than you would have for Jared Goff. 

 

 

Hmm, feels like there's a bit of overthinking going on here.  Most teams have comparable draft value chart right?  And I assume that would factor in the desirability of the top prospects (QB top heavy draft vs a lineman top heavy draft.  Generational talent, etc).  Assume you have a trade offer where it's considered fair by both teams and is neither a win or loss (which also probably means it would be considered a fair value trade by many other teams in the NFL).  Would you prioritize your draft capital to trade up for a QB this year or stand pat and take Harrison Jr. plus the other picks?  I don't think that necessarily requires knowing exactly what value the FOs of the league would assign to trades for picks 1-3 from 4. 

 

But I guess if the answer is it depends on the trade cost, that's an answer too.  My question was more in the vein of if the trade is considered fair by most, would you prefer a QB or Harrison + picks that would have to be given up.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Bryce Young just got hurt (taking a sack on 4th down. Ugh).

 

He's been a bit better lately, but I think they have a much better chance of winning out if Andy Dalton plays. 

[Conn]

5 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Bryce Young just got hurt (taking a sack on 4th down. Ugh).

 

He's been a bit better lately, but I think they have a much better chance of winning out if Andy Dalton plays. 

4th and 7 in FG range which is even stranger. Dalton can win, yeah. And more importantly, pepper my guy Thielen with targets. 
 

Too bad Zappe sucks so bad in this Patriots game, the D and ST’s has been doing its job 

[JSSkinz]

There won't be much to cheer about this week, the writing was on the wall that we would come out of this week with the 4th pick, it's not a shocker or anything to stress.  It was always going to come down to the Jets vs Pats next week.

[Rufus T Firefly]

7 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

 

Hmm, feels like there's a bit of overthinking going on here.  Most teams have comparable draft value chart right?  And I assume that would factor in the desirability of the top prospects (QB top heavy draft vs a lineman top heavy draft.  Generational talent, etc).  Assume you have a trade offer where it's considered fair by both teams and is neither a win or loss (which also probably means it would be considered a fair value trade by many other teams in the NFL).  Would you prioritize your draft capital to trade up for a QB this year or stand pat and take Harrison Jr. plus the other picks?  I don't think that necessarily requires knowing exactly what value the FOs of the league would assign to trades for picks 1-3 from 4. 

 

But I guess if the answer is it depends on the trade cost, that's an answer too.  My question was more in the vein of if the trade is considered fair by most, would you prefer a QB or Harrison + picks that would have to be given up.

Draft Pick Value Chart means nothing at the top of the draft, especially with QBa. We paid more to move form 6 to 2 in 2012 than Carolina did to go from 9 to 1 let year, because RG3 was more highly regarded. Just can't go off the chart as if it's gonna be applied the same in every situation. 

[Llevron]

The Pats are so obviously tanking and it’s disgusting. The league really needs to crack down on them.

 

👀

[Rufus T Firefly]

4 minutes ago, Conn said:

4th and 7 in FG range which is even stranger. Dalton can win, yeah. And more importantly, pepper my guy Thielen with targets. 
 

Too bad Zappe sucks so bad in this Patriots game, the D and ST’s has been doing its job 

Apparently the Panthers' K tweaked a hammy in warmups. 

 

 

Ugh. Ridiculous pick 6 for Philly,

[Riggo#44]

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

The Pats are so obviously tanking and it’s disgusting. The league really needs to crack down on them.

 

👀

[MrJL]

the announcers just said we're still at 3

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 minutes ago, MrJL said:

the announcers just said we're still at 3

We're not, at the moment. We're tied with NE in SOS, but lose the tiebreaker beau elf head to head. But the first tiebreaker can flop with a single game from multiple matchups. 

[bearrock]

11 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Draft Pick Value Chart means nothing at the top of the draft, especially with QBa. We paid more to move form 6 to 2 in 2012 than Carolina did to go from 9 to 1 let year, because RG3 was more highly regarded. Just can't go off the chart as if it's gonna be applied the same in every situation. 

 

No, I'm not saying mechanically go off the charts.  I'm saying that teams would adjust their trade valuation depending on the situation.  A trade up value in a QB heavy draft would be different than a non-QB heavy draft.  Trade up in a highly touted QB heavy draft would again be different.  But regardless of what the exact deviation from the standard value chart would be, there is a point where most would consider it fair (a counter point would be 2012, where many considered it an overpay).  I am not suggesting a fair trade value in 2024 for 4 to 1-3 looks like fair trade value in 2023 for 4 to 1-3, but there is a range where the 2024 value would be considered fair by most GMs.

[Rufus T Firefly]

15 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

No, I'm not saying mechanically go off the charts.  I'm saying that teams would adjust their trade valuation depending on the situation.  A trade up value in a QB heavy draft would be different than a non-QB heavy draft.  Trade up in a highly touted QB heavy draft would again be different.  But regardless of what the exact deviation from the standard value chart would be, there is a point where most would consider it fair (a counter point would be 2012, where many considered it an overpay).  I am not suggesting a fair trade value in 2024 for 4 to 1-3 looks like fair trade value in 2023 for 4 to 1-3, but there is a range where the 2024 value would be considered fair by most GMs.

I'm not sure what you're even saying, or that you understand what I am. Either way, there's not much point in continuing this.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Rufus T Firefly

[Rufus T Firefly]

Nothing going particularly well so far today.

 

Let's just get the L and hope for some help next week. Or at least to squeak out a tiebreaker with NE.

[Warhead36]

Any chance Seattle can clinch a Wild Card today? Then theyll rest guys against Arizona next week. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

Bryce Young is horrible. Not rooting for an injury, but it would have been much more interesting if he had stayed out of this one. 

[DazedSkinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Nothing going particularly well so far today.

 

Let's just get the L and hope for some help next week. Or at least to squeak out a tiebreaker with NE.

To avoid any major disappointment I'm just going to assume we'll be picking 4th or 5th...if we end up higher then it will be a very pleasant surprise.  Regardless I won't let that ruin the joy of seeing this coaching staff **** canned after the Dallas game lol

[Rufus T Firefly]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Any chance Seattle can clinch a Wild Card today? Then theyll rest guys against Arizona next week. 

I believe the only way involves a tie between GB and Minnesota tonight.