2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[The Consigliere]

21 hours ago, El Mexican said:

 

We are less than a handful of sacks away from having our WORST season ever in sacks allowed.

 

That's not hyperbole. That's fact.

 

Let that sink in. Worse than the Zorn era, worse than Heath Shuller era, worse than every season with The Dany around here, worse than the putrid last Shannahan season.

 

This is one of those times when OL-specific needs outweight everything else. It's not even a discussion.

Yes indeed, take the QB, if he's there, at slot. It's definitely not a discussion, especially with a giant pile of free agent $$$, and a boatload of picks between 5th or so and 110 or so. 

[The Consigliere]

19 hours ago, skinsfan66 said:

And he still out played the no.1 pick and QB in last years draft who cost his coach to get fired mid season for making the pick. How did they get it all the wrong? the numbers, metrics?  Sam gets hit like every other 6 starting QB's we have had and he is still standing, their careers have ended in the NFL. Sam has a lot of things going for him that most of these young QB's do not.

I do not know what you're referencing other than Young, I'm surprised Young is as bad as he is, but he's not who we are trying to draft so I don't know how any of this is relevant.

 

It's whether you want to stick with a guy in the bottom quartile/bottom 3rd of the league, but whose flashed upside, or if you want to take another bite at the apple, if the opportunity awaits in April, I'd say yes to going after that apple. If you aren't sure if you've nailed down QB, then you need to draft one, its as simple as that. I'm not sure, so I'd draft one, if I liked the available prospects, and I do. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, Est.1974 said:

Probably need to leave it be and circle back around in two weeks to be honest.

 

That's fine. But I was simply trying to make the case for how hard it will be to overtake the Patriots in SOS. Trust me, I ran every possible scenario, spent about an hour going through each week to change matchup results to get the SOS to flip, and it's darn near impossible. Just trying to set expectations, and help people understand that we need the Patriots to win 2 more games to have a realistic chance to jump them to get to #2.

 

The simplest rooting interests: Cardinals win 1 more, Patriots win 2 more.

[gooseneck]

5 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's the likely outcome with the chalk-y results. Even if the Pats beat the Jets in Week 18, we have too much to overcome re: SOS. Now, if the Pats somehow upset the Chiefs or Bills or Broncos the next two weeks, that changes everything.

 

 

Now, if the Pats upset, say, the Broncos, here's the order:

 

 

If the first scenario holds, and the Jets beat the Pats in Week 18 (Pats lose out) and we beat the Jets, you're looking at this ... and I do not know who would get the tie-break between Chargers and Commanders:

 

 

 

And if the Pats beat the Jets in the final week, and we beat the Jets ... here's what you'd have ... again, the tie-break between Chargers and Commanders would determine whether we pick #5 or #6 

 

 

Bottom line, I think we're locked into the Top 6 even if we beat the Jets. But we could go as high as #2 depending on what the Pats do, if we lose out. And our rooting interests in Week 18 will entirely depend on whether we lose to the Jets and are in play for #2, or if we beat the Jets and want them to get to 6 wins with a victory over the Pats. 

 

Thanks for the work.  It is hard to predict now but I think we are looking at 3rd or 4th.  I think Arizona passes us.  I would love the 2nd.  A trade down could land us Harrison or Bowers, or one of the 2 OT's and give us incredible draft Capital,2024 NFL Trade Value Chart (drafttek.com)https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp. The 2600 value gives us basically a 5th and an 18th

[JamesMadisonSkins]

22 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

You mean, you don't want random people projecting how all 17 opponents (technically 14 with divisional opponents counting twice) will fare in all 4 remaining games and then declaring their guess to be a virtual fact?

 

Not going to keep going with this, but when one team's opponents have a .525 win pct and the other .529, declaring that there is only a 5% chance one or the other will do better during the reminder of the season is... let's just call it "silly."

 

I am not going to die on this hill. Play with the simulator all you want. You'll be shocked at how hard it will be to flip the SOS so that we overtake the Patriots. There's "guessing" and then there's what I did, which is run through every possible scenario. You can ignore it all you want. It's just fact. 

 

Also, it depends on where you are looking at SOS. Tankathon does have the SOS based on current record of all 17 opponents. But that changes a ton in the final 4 weeks. If you simply go with the Vegas expectations for Week 15, our SOS drops to .498 while the Pats goes to .540. Great, this is a huge advantage for us. I was shocked. But you do that same exercise in Week 16 and 17, and it completely flips, with the Pats dropping to .506 and us going to .522. Heading into Week 18, it's nearly impossible to flip that SOS back in our favor unless you start going back to Week 16 and 17 and completely changing games, many of which are incredibly unlikely outcomes. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[dunfer]

4 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I do not know what you're referencing other than Young, I'm surprised Young is as bad as he is, but he's not who we are trying to draft so I don't know how any of this is relevant.

 

It's whether you want to stick with a guy in the bottom quartile/bottom 3rd of the league, but whose flashed upside, or if you want to take another bite at the apple, if the opportunity awaits in April, I'd say yes to going after that apple. If you aren't sure if you've nailed down QB, then you need to draft one, its as simple as that. I'm not sure, so I'd draft one, if I liked the available prospects, and I do. 

with a top 5 pick you better be more infatuated than like. you need to be stalker in love with them

[Est.1974]

21 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

You mean, you don't want random people projecting how all 17 opponents (technically 14 with divisional opponents counting twice) will fare in all 4 remaining games and then declaring their guess to be a virtual fact?

 

Not going to keep going with this, but when one team's opponents have a .525 win pct and the other .529, declaring that there is only a 5% chance one or the other will do better during the reminder of the season is... let's just call it "silly."

Totally agree.

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

The Giants don't have a QB, don't have a long term answer at RB, don't have any WR's worth a ----, an old if quality TE, and a bottom quartile Defense, I have no idea how good their OL is, hopefully for them it's solid. 

 

They are miles away from relevance, just like we are. Having a couple of special players does not a great team make. They need to rebuild pretty much every single positional cohort just like we do. There's a reason we've been neck and neck all season amongst the worst teams in the NFC, and league wide. 

 

I'm assuming Schneier is either a NY based guy, or a generalist media guy because that's an incredibly moronic take. 

 

Disagree.  They were in the playoffs last year.   This year they were destroyed by injuries.  Imagine as bad as the season went, we'd be down to our QB #3, we lose both tackles for much of the season and our center and we deal with it by coaxing players out of retirement to play O line because of injuries?  Sadly Pugh who they coaxed out of retirement is a better LG than what we got. 

 

Dexter Lawrence and Thibedeaux right now are two of the best D lineman in the league.   Okereke is one of the better LBs.   Simmons is emerging as a player for them.  McKinney (one of my FA wants is a good safety).   Banks is playing better of late at CB.   

 

They got the better defense and we don't have a defensive tackle as good as Lawrence or an edge as good as Thibedeaux.   Or a left tackle as good as Andrew Thomas.

 

Their offense is the issue.  they have some OK receivers but no one special but Hyatt has played better of late.  Waller is good when he's healthy but that's an if.  You are just assuming NY born and bred Barkley is going to leave in FA.  Maybe.  But that's not  a sure thing.

 

For all their problems they are likely going to finish ahead of us for the 2nd year in a row, beat us again, this time for the last three games in a row and this time they did it with a banged up roster and with thier backup QBs.

 

Shoen isn't a joke at GM.  So nope I am not rooting for them to get a QB.  I know its a rite of passage on the board with some that the Giants are the step child team in the division.  But its not based on much reality.  Heck they won a playoff game last year.  When was the last time we did, like 17 years ago?

 

The Giants aren't good.  But if we can tie our shoes and chew gum at the same time and fill multiple needs with extra picks -- why can't they?

Edited December 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here is who New England played that we did not play:

Raiders

Commanders

Colts

Chargers

Steelers

Chiefs

Saints

 

We basically want those teams to all win as much as possible (including us, obv. which defeats the whole purpose).

 

We also want the Bills and Dolphins to win out. And we want the Eagles and Cowboys and Giants to lose as much as possible. Those things are fairly unlikely to happen.

 

I think the only way I could flip the SOS was for Dallas to finish 11-6 and the Eagles to finish 12-5. I just find that hard to imagine. 

 

We are also somewhat pidgeon-holed. We are in the position to want the Cardinals to win another game, and the Patriots to win another game, both improving our SOS, while we continue to lose, which helps lower their SOS.

 

Then there's the randomness of it all. The Ravens beating the 49ers is good for our SOS lowering. We both played the Broncos, so that's fairly mitigating. But if the Chargers beat the Broncos (LOL), that helps us since the Patriots played the Chargers and Broncos, but we just played the Broncos. But things like that will need to happen to actually flip it. Several of those things.

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

I think his ceiling is #2 overall.

 

Daniels I think easily can be a riser.  For whatever reason mobile QBs can take time to heat up in mocks.  I recall that being the case for Caleb, Kyler, etc.  

[The Consigliere]

19 hours ago, skinsfan66 said:

Seems about right just look at The no.1 pick in all of the draft last year, you think he is winning a SB? From those stats one might also think there was a QB first vibe and the rest will take care of it's self. Looks like they went for it.    

Here are your Super Bowl Winners in the past 35 years (which btw, aint the modern NFL, the modern NFL is basically the PI and QB hit restriction league of the last 20 years or so), but anyway:

 

1988-1989: Joe Montana- 3rd rounder

1990: Hostettler: Phil Simms team, he was a top 10 pick. 

1991: Rypien: Day 3 pick equivalent

1992-1993, 1995: #1 overall Aikman

1994: Steve Young: USFL $50 Mill man (like 250 mill or so today), hell yes he would have been top 5. He was a supplemental first by the horrific Bucs at the time. So yeah, easily top 5 pick. 

1996: Brett Favre: 2nd Rounder

1997-1998: Elway, another top 5 guy

1999: UDFA Kurt Warner

2000: Dilfer: High Comedy top 5 guy

2001: Tom Brady  5th round guy.

2002: Brad Johnson: Day 2 or Day 3? I forget which.

2003: Tom Brady again

2004: Tom Brady again

2005: Ben Roth: Top 10 overall guy. 

2006: Manning: #1 overall guy

2007: Eli: #1 overall guy

2008: Ben Roth: Top 10 guy again

2009: Brees: 1/2nd round turn pick.

2010: Rodgers: Expected to go top 2, dropped to pick 23 or 24

2011: Eli: #1 overall guy

2012: Joe Flacco: Mid 1st guy

2013: Russell Wilson: day 2 guy

2014: Tom Brady again

2015: Peyton, #1 guy

2016: Brady again

2017: Foles: later 1st round dude if memory serves

2018: Brady again

2019: Mahomes: Another high first

2020: Tom Brady again

2021: Matt Stafford: top of draft guy

2022: Mahomes: Another high/mid first guy

 

What's funny about this, is that two things make it really funny looking: Tom Brady, and the QB's in that five year time period between the Post Elway Beginning, and the arrival of the '04 QB class to join Brady's dominance of the league. 

Brady, and that window alone account for nearly every single non 1st rounder QB. There are a couple that fall outside of that zone, but they're basically Wilson's a decade ago, and some weird stuff in the late eighties and early nineties. For instance, do you consider the Giants Super bowl about Jeff Hostettler? Or about Phil Simms who basically ran that team throughout the entire Bill Parcells era? To me, I give Hostettler the performance, but I give Simms the season. 

 

What matters when you arrange ---- like this, though, to me is how your building your evidence, and whether you're basically loading the dice for the result you want. For someone who wants to emphasize QB's don't matter, you go further back in time, and you focus exclusively on Super Bowls. Then you get a load of Tom Brady (nearly half of the QB's who played in super bowls the past two decades alone) boom, you get your result. Go back further, and you have Joe Montana, Rypien, and Hoss doing the work for you from 1981-1991 with only Phil Simms sticking out as an exception. Boom, win your argument.

 

I prefer to use Final Fours, because you get more sample size form that. You get 40 different QB combinations possible for 20 years. So a 40 performance sample size largely since the rule changes went through. When I've run that sample, you get about 75-85% of QB's playing in Final Fours carrying Blue Chip to mid 1st round draft capital.

 

It depends upon how you set up the argument. Even the guy talking about the past 35 years loaded the dice of the argument, he incorporated dissimilar era's, than tweaked the zone of where QB's were selected in round 1 to shrink how many QB's actually won titles, and really, is that what fans want? Yes and no, but honestly, what fans really want is to contend, and win as much as possible, Bucs fans would gladly trade 2002 to the Raiders, if they could get a Ravens period of contention, rather than the 1999-2003 run they had. To me, be honest, don't load the dice, use nuance, and what do you get? 35 years, and of the teams, who were lead by blue chip caliber QB's even taking into account Brady's? Simms, Aikman, Steve Young, John Elway, Ben Roth, Peyton and Eli, Aaron Rodgers, Flacco, Mahomes, and Stafford. Those guys account for half the wins: 18 of them. Now you can quibble with how blue chip they were? Flacco wasn't, and Rodgers was projected to go by #2 for everyone which is part of the reason the league tweaked who they called in and how they handled players that had to sit for hours when they thought they'd just have to sit for minutes. But regardless, the story of the last 35 years is really, primarily 1st round QB's, Tom Brady, and 1 off winners. Simple as that. 

 

I prefer my "Final Four" evaluation system because it opens things up more to guys like Brees, Rodgers, Wilson, the Ravens in general etc, basically teams that consistently made deep runs, and there you get how it works, and it is pretty straight forward. About 3/4's to 4/5's of contenders are helmed by elite franchise QB's, usually drafted high but not always, and about 1/4 that are flash in the pan types (Hostettlers, Foles, etc). 

 

Go get that QB, I'd rather bet on the blue chipper, than the teams that are usually flash in the pan types (Ravens, Niners, and Bucs squads of the last 30 years are the primary exceptions to that, helmed by Flacco and Lamar (the latter is elite of course, Kap, Garop, and now Purdy, and the Bucs with King and Brad Johnson) because its an easier build. The Bucs, Ravens and Niners had to nail practically everything else, and have superb coaches and quality FO's to have a chance-that's nailing everything. Mediocre FO's and solid but not elite coaches can win with great QB's, it's hard to hit on QB's, but I'd argue its even harder to hit on literally everything else, which is what's necessary to build a sustained contender that has a league average type QB. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, JSSkinz said:

Leno, Wylie, and Gates will cost us over $21MM in dead cap next year once cut, brutal mistakes by this FO will haunt us for a couple of years.

I doubt we cut Leno.  I think we're going to probably move some money around and extend him to be a backup swing tackle.  Gates will be cut. Wylie is the pain in the ass.  He should be cut but I believe his cap hit is highest, so they might try and see what he can do at guard. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

If you go with just the baseline projections using "Chalk" including the wins we need to happen (Pats>Jets, Cards>Bears).

SOS after Week 15: Patriots (.536), Commanders (.500)

SOS after Week 16: Patriots (.533), Commanders (.498)

SOS after Week 17: Patriots (.531), Commanders (.520)

SOS after Week 18: Patriots (.516), Commanders (.533)

 

Maybe there's some huge error between Week 16 and Week 17 and Week 18. But I think it all has to do with who is winning/losing those weeks that impact our schedules among the teams that are not common opponents. 

 

There very well could be an error in the way PFN is calculating SOS in this simulator. Fully admit that. I could be working with broken data. So we'll just go week to week. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[JSSkinz]

27 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I doubt we cut Leno.  I think we're going to probably move some money around and extend him to be a backup swing tackle.

Putting him at RT would solve a need short term, if he's up for it.

[Forehead]

I think I'd just let thoughts of the Patriots and #2 go, way too much has to go right for that.  I'd stick with a simple Cards over Bears, grab #3.  If Jayden Daniels is really everything you guys think he is, our FO, whoever they are, will either take him or trade #3 for hopefully a whole lot.

 

If we get #3 and the rest of the chart that gooseneck posted holds, I'd see if Las Vegas wants to play ball for #6, their 2nd and 5th.  At #6, we'd still have some sort of choice between Harrison, Bowers, and the top of the OT class (assuming the Raiders are trading up for Daniels) and then we'd have three straight second rounders in a row.  I don't think I'd want to go lower than 6 though, and I certainly wouldn't want to trade with the Giants and help them in any way.

[MrJL]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I doubt we cut Leno.  I think we're going to probably move some money around and extend him to be a backup swing tackle.  Gates will be cut. Wylie is the pain in the ass.  He should be cut but I believe his cap hit is highest, so they might try and see what he can do at guard. 

 

we can Jun 1 them

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I doubt we cut Leno.  I think we're going to probably move some money around and extend him to be a backup swing tackle.  Gates will be cut. Wylie is the pain in the ass.  He should be cut but I believe his cap hit is highest, so they might try and see what he can do at guard. 

 

 

I don't think we should cut Gates.   He is a decent swing interior backup (can backup both Guard spots plus Center).  His cap hit next  year 5.5 million and the deadcap would be about 5.3 million you really only save .2 million in cap space by cutting him.  I do think he would get cut after the 2024 season because at that point he only has 1.7 million deadcap.  https://overthecap.com/player/nick-gates/7366

 

Wylie likewise would be hard to cut because his  cap hit next year is 9.4 million, but the deadcap for cutting him would be 7.8 million.  He has Tackle/Guard flexibility so he could be your fifth starter at Guard or Tackle or just versatile depth because of his ability to play both Guard and Tackle. https://overthecap.com/player/andrew-wylie/6323

 

From a pure cap standpoint, we would get the biggest savings if we cut Leno.  His cap number next year is 15.75 million, the deadcap would be around 8.25 million if we cut him meaning there would be 7,5 cap savings if we cut him.  That said, he is the best player of the three.  If you draft a RT he is fine to start another year at LT, if you draft a LT, you can move him to RT and he be a fine starter.  I see Leno as a mid-level starter and you don't want to downgrade the O-Line, which could happen if you cut Leno and don't replace him with a player as good.   

https://overthecap.com/player/charles-leno-jr/3185

[dunfer]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

post

and half of those 1st round qbs youve listed sucked their rookie years, resulting in another top draft pick. At what point do you stop pulling the slot machine?

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, El Mexican said:

 

It's been a disaster, I agree.

 

But great linemen are a rarity, just as stud QBs. Start with the best tackle you can draft and go from there.  

QB's are definitely more rare, and have a significantly stronger impact on team performance. You have to build an entire line with backups for cluster injuries, 1 QB, is 1 QB. There are a lot more adequate and better OL's around than there are good QB's, both in college and in the NFL. 

[method man]

9 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

 

I don't think we should cut Gates.   He is a decent swing interior backup (can backup both Guard spots plus Center).  His cap hit next  year 5.5 million and the deadcap would be about 5.3 million you really only save .2 million in cap space by cutting him.  I do think he would get cut after the 2024 season because at that point he only has 1.7 million deadcap.  https://overthecap.com/player/nick-gates/7366

 

Wylie likewise would be hard to cut because his  cap hit next year is 9.4 million, but the deadcap for cutting him would be 7.8 million.  He has Tackle/Guard flexibility so he could be your fifth starter at Guard or Tackle or just versatile depth because of his ability to play both Guard and Tackle. https://overthecap.com/player/andrew-wylie/6323

 

From a pure cap standpoint, we would get the biggest savings if we cut Leno.  His cap number next year is 15.75 million, the deadcap would be around 8.25 million if we cut him meaning there would be 7,5 cap savings if we cut him.  That said, he is the best player of the three.  If you draft a RT he is fine to start another year at LT, if you draft a LT, you can move him to RT and he be a fine starter.  I see Leno as a mid-level starter and you don't want to downgrade the O-Line, which could happen if you cut Leno and don't replace him with a player as good.   

https://overthecap.com/player/charles-leno-jr/3185

This is solid analysis. Just note you can designate Wylie and Gates as post June cuts and split the dead cap between this year and 2025 if you choose to do so. I think you’ll gave to do it with one of them ultimately, likely Gates.

 

Most fans want to cut Leno, move him to RT or make him a swing tackle (which would be idiotic given the cap hit). Most fail to realize he is an average LT. Struggles with some matchups and wins others. His PFF grade shows he wins a lot more often than he loses. The way Paulsen put it, Wylie loses 5 times a game. Leno loses a couple times a game (unless it is Thibodeaux). I have zero issues rocking with Leno at LT next year if it comes to it. The much bigger issues are LG, C and Wylie at RT. I also bet that Leno looks better next year if he plays next to a real NFL starter at LG

[El Mexican]

3 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

QB's are definitely more rare, and have a significantly stronger impact on team performance. You have to build an entire line with backups for cluster injuries, 1 QB, is 1 QB. There are a lot more adequate and better OL's around than there are good QB's, both in college and in the NFL. 

 

I get your point. But can you remember any SB winner with a terrible O-line?

[dunfer]

24 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

 

I get your point. But can you remember any SB winner with a terrible O-line?

If we had trent , brandon and moses...what would our record be?

 

Offensively wed probably be up there with '15 cousins year where we could move and score at will. defense just sucked...hope the new staff can find some pitbulls at LB.

Edited December 15, 2023 by dunfer

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I think the only OL cut candidate it Leno. I think I read an article from 2016/2017 when he was in Chicago that said Leno struggled at RT. We could cut him and use those savings alone to cover the cap hit for a FA OL. 

 

I think we draft an OT in R1 who plays at LT. So we could sign a RT and kick Wylie to LG. I think we draft another OL in R2. Could be a Guard to compete at LG. Or a Tackle to start. It’s risky to start 2 rookie OTs. But that could be the reality unless we find a stud in FA, which seems unlikely esp now that Austin Jackson extended in Miami. 
 

I think we sign an OL in FA to start and draft at least 2 who should compete to start. Plus a 3rd in R2-4 that can provide backup and future starting potential. 

[MrJL]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

 

 

I don't think we should cut Gates.   He is a decent swing interior backup (can backup both Guard spots plus Center).  His cap hit next  year 5.5 million and the deadcap would be about 5.3 million you really only save .2 million in cap space by cutting him.  I do think he would get cut after the 2024 season because at that point he only has 1.7 million deadcap.  https://overthecap.com/player/nick-gates/7366

 

 

Gates apparently doesn't think much of himself at guard from the statements I've seen

[philibusters]

39 minutes ago, MrJL said:

Gates apparently doesn't think much of himself at guard from the statements I've seen

  

In terms of a depth player, I don't think he has much choice.  That said, he played 2/3rds of his snaps last season at Guard (albeit he only played about 400 total snaps) and he had a PFF grade of 60.   This year he played all his snaps at C and got the exact same grade.

 

The problem with Gates is he just is not a big guy for an interior O-lineman so he can be pushed back with power and he is not really fast or athletic so he is not dynamic in the run game.   He is an okay player and fine for depth, but the front office misjudged thinking he would be a good starter.

Edited December 16, 2023 by philibusters