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2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2


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4 hours ago, Forehead said:

Even if we did wind up at number 2 and we decide to stick with Howell, how low are you willing to go in the 1st round, absent some sort of Ditka-New Orleans offer?  Drop any lower than six and the possibility is that Harrison, Bowers, and both of the (at this point) premier tackles are off the board.

No lower than 5.  You want one of the absolute, no doubt, tier 1 players from the draft.  The best of the best at their position. 

 

You drop past 5, and you're in no-man's land from a value perspective.

 

I fully grant you that you can find a top player between 5-15.  Even at QB: Herbert, Allen and Mahomes are all 6-10 picks.

 

Having said that, you want to stay in your tier.  So for me, 5 is the cutoff.  At 5 you're guaranteed one of the top 2 tackles, the top WR, or the top TE (if Bowers is worth that high a pick, we can debate.)

 

Once you get past 5, most likely the best players left on the board are going to be defensive players.  And while we probably need 9 starters on defense, I have no idesire to see them picking a defensive player until the 6th round of the draft.  

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11 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

No lower than 5.  You want one of the absolute, no doubt, tier 1 players from the draft.  The best of the best at their position. 

 

You drop past 5, and you're in no-man's land from a value perspective.

 

I fully grant you that you can find a top player between 5-15.  Even at QB: Herbert, Allen and Mahomes are all 6-10 picks.

 

Having said that, you want to stay in your tier.  So for me, 5 is the cutoff.  At 5 you're guaranteed one of the top 2 tackles, the top WR, or the top TE (if Bowers is worth that high a pick, we can debate.)

 

 

With two top QBs there it seems as though your list of four should make 6 the cutoff

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So Matt Miller just pretends the Giants are picking ahead of us

 

Let's get started. Here are my first-round projections for April's loaded draft.

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1. Chicago Bears (via 1-12 CAR)

 

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

The Bears have a tough decision to make at quarterback given how well Justin Fields has played since his return from a right thumb injury a month ago. But he has been inconsistent over three seasons, and Chicago would likely take a quarterback if it lands one of the top two selections in the draft. Williams being available makes it an easier call, too.

Williams is a big play waiting to happen, with 41 total touchdowns in 2023. His game combines great arm strength, mobility, poise and field vision to make him the best overall prospect in the class and a quarterback the Bears simply cannot afford to pass on for another year of Fields. Restarting the clock at the position -- both in terms of salary and development timeline -- now is crucial with Fields' fifth-year option decision on deck.


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2. New England Patriots (3-10)

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Much like Chicago, the Patriots need to start over at quarterback, especially because the entire organization could reset this offseason. Mac Jones' fifth-year option decision is also coming this offseason, and after he was benched for Bailey Zappe, all signs point toward a new QB1 in New England for 2024.

Maye is a powerful thrower at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, with the arm talent to stretch the field vertically and the mobility to threaten on the ground. There are times his ball placement can be inconsistent, but his supporting cast at North Carolina did him few favors there. Maye -- who is declaring for the draft -- has the traits of a true franchise quarterback.


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3. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

I believe the Cardinals will make the right decision here to build around quarterback Kyler Murray and draft an elite receiver prospect to be his running mate, rather than make a change under center. Murray has played well since returning from a torn ACL, and the Cards have receivers Marquise Brown and Greg Dortch both on expiring deals.

Harrison is a magician at 6-foot-4 with fantastic body control and the fastest hands of any receiver in the draft class. He has the smooth and effortless route running ability -- plus the top-tier body control -- to quickly become one of the best players at the position in the NFL. He'd be the 10th receiver to ever get picked this high, per ESPN Stats & Information research.


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4. New York Giants (5-8)

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Is this too early for Daniels, even after his brilliant Heisman-winning 2023 season? Maybe, but teams will overdraft at quarterback in an effort to find the right player, and Daniels' dual-threat ability and vertical passing traits are very intriguing. His 50 total touchdowns this season make him a first-round candidate, but it's Daniels' improvement in the pocket and the best deep ball in college football that will truly turn heads come draft time.

The Giants are invested financially in Daniel Jones, but his play simply hasn't been good enough, and New York can move on via a trade. His 38.4 QBR ranks 25th in the NFL, and his season is over with a torn ACL. Daniels' 95.7, meanwhile, leads the FBS. And sure, undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito has been a fun story, leading the Giants to three straight wins. But his QBR on the season? It's even worse than Jones' at 26.2.

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5. Washington Commanders (4-9)

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

First-year starting quarterback Sam Howell has likely shown enough bright spots for the Commanders to build around him for at least one more season. But they can't keep this current offensive line intact with Howell on track to set the single-season sacks taken record (58 in 13 games).

Fashanu is a smooth-moving left tackle who has allowed one sack all season at Penn State. The 20-year-old junior is still developing, but he has Laremy Tunsil-like potential.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39084322/2024-nfl-mock-draft-round-1-predictions-32-picks

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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2 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I tortured myself and went back and looked at the history at taking a QB top 5.  Let's just say there are a lot more Mariottas than hits.   By a long shot  To trade a guy who has proven he can play in the league, perhaps at a pretty good level, for those odds is a frightening thought. That's why I believe it would be a terrible mistake to trade Sam Howell, it's not like teams are giving up a high pick for him so what are the chances that pick lands a better QB than Howell?

 

 

 

Agreed.

 

You don't trade Howell, you build around him. If he fails, then you still have the supportive pieces in place for the next QB. By trading Howell, and having to likely trade draft capital for one of the stud QBs, you take a risk with an unknown and have also compromised your ability to put the supportive pieces around him, therefore nullifying some of his value.

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I am agnostic on whether to take a QB or ride with Howell.  I am just not agnostic over the idea of spending some time thinking about it.  No brainer to me to think long and hard.  And i am not worried about the issue even though there is some push back from some here, I got no doubt the new GM would think hard.  It would be direlection of duty not to do so.

 

It's the case in any draft.  Every position isn't equal or comparable to other drafts.  Brock Bowers isn't Evan Engram.  Marvin Harrison Jr isn't Corey Davis.  On and on  And they weren't billed the same way at the time.  Not that the billing matters.  Just saying if you follow draft chatter the idea that Marcus Mariotta didn't end up as good as Joe Burrow isn't some shocking development. 

 

Mariotta wasn't billed like some can't miss QB. It wasn't like hey remember how Mariotta was billed just as much as Caleb is now?  Mariota in this draft probably would be the 5th QB taken.  Why is Ewers likely going back to college?  From what I read he doesn't want to get buried in this draft.  In this draft he might go 2nd round.  Next year he might go top 10 because of a much less heralded QB class at the moment.

 

The Giants considered Daniel Jones the best Qb in a weak class and took him.   In this class he's probaby QB #7.

 

Weak draft, strong draft for a spot are real dynamics every year.   It's more jarring for QBs because whether a dude would be the 5th QB in a stronger perceived draft or a lesser it doesn't matter because if you need a QB and you are drafting high you take the swing to the perceived best guy in that draft 

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Our players, other teams players and coaches have come out saying Sams legit. 

 

He looks legit and clearly wasn't the problem this year. He's about the only player who wasn't on offense, except Cosmi and BRob.

 

I'd guess we are definitely going to draft a QB at some point, but I doubt it's with a top 5 pick.

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17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am agnostic on whether to take a QB or ride with Howell

 

I am to an extent too, but I liked our compadre's @Going Commando framing of Howell as a 2nd round talent we were gifted with in the 5th round. I do agree the OL is the more problematic and to a good margin, but I think if you have the chance to upgrade at the most important piece of the pie, I would likely do so. Howell's not a prima-donna type to be threatened by some healthy competition. This is a pretty deep and good QB class I believe. I've no clue about next years class yet. I think I'm leaning QB over OL right now despite what the odds would suggest of nailing down the most difficult position in the game successfully.  

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1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

Our players, other teams players and coaches have come out saying Sams legit. 

 

He looks legit and clearly wasn't the problem this year. He's about the only player who wasn't on offense, except Cosmi and BRob.

 

I'd guess we are definitely going to draft a QB at some point, but I doubt it's with a top 5 pick.

 

I like Sam.  But I don't care about the talk.  Young QBs who flash get that kind of love including ones that end up meh.  Haskins got some at the end of his rookie year.  Jason Campbell got plenty of love.  Heck I can recall it like yesterday when Strahan who then was playing for the Giants said somewhere, Washington finally has a good QB or something like that

 

You get national love almost always as a young QB from the broadcasters if you flash some.  Heck if I wasn't watching the game closely and just listened to Aikman on yesterdays broadcast I'd think Tommy Devito was Joe Montana.

 

It's an interesting call IMO.  As someone who has had a lot of angst over the years about the QB spot.   Part of that is we never seem to be picking high in drafts that are perceived strong at QB sans 2012 and in that draft we'd have been better to stay pat at that pick. 

 

I hate the idea of trading up.   But Drake is anywhere near he's billing and he's sitting at our pick and lets say Daniels is Lamar Jackson Part 2 and Sam just ends up OK or good -- to me its on the list of QB blunders.  So they better be right.

 

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43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

this defense even in their "good" years have struggled against mobile QBs and more often then they should against the Giants.

 

Be interesing to see to combine those two elements together.

I’m going to assume we know nothing about the defense going forward.  We don’t know the DC or 9 of the starters.  
 

So what has happened in the past doesn’t effect what happens in the future. 

 

Also I want a team where I don’t have to really care about what other teams do.  
 

He’s some irony for you:  the pick used to select Mahomes was originally the Bills.  

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25 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I am to an extent too, but I liked our compadre's @Going Commando framing of Howell as a 2nd round talent we were gifted with in the 5th round. I do agree the OL is the more problematic and to a good margin, but I think if you have the chance to upgrade at the most important piece of the pie, I would likely do so. Howell's not a prima-donna type to be threatened by some healthy competition. This is a pretty deep and good QB class I believe. I've no clue about next years class yet. I think I'm leaning QB over OL right now despite what the odds would suggest of nailing down the most difficult position in the game successfully.  

 

I agree with most of this.

 

By agnostic, I mean I'll trust the GM's decision whatever it is.  I don't have a beef with the build around Howell clique here.  My beef with them is the idea that he's untouchable and the decision is a no brainer to ride it with him or punt on the decision to later.  To me its far from a no brainer and the punt on this to later feels very Bruce Allen-Ron Rivera style of lets play ot medium and hope for the best.  i am tired of playing it medium, its cringe worthy for me. :ols: 

 

What I expect to happen on ths decision is somewhat predicated on the next 4 games.  I do think its relevant that Sam has struggled as the defenses have gotten tougher.    Finishing weak or strong I think likely is relevant to this decision versus the way some I gather believe which is the verdict is already in.

 

18 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

Also I want a team where I don’t have to really care about what other teams do.  

 

Especially in our division.  It doesn't matter if those teams in our division are better than us.  Lets just focus on our team.  If we are the 4th best team in the division it has absolutely no bearing on their success. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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3 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I tortured myself and went back and looked at the history at taking a QB top 5.  Let's just say there are a lot more Mariottas than hits.   By a long shot  To trade a guy who has proven he can play in the league, perhaps at a pretty good level, for those odds is a frightening thought. That's why I believe it would be a terrible mistake to trade Sam Howell, it's not like teams are giving up a high pick for him so what are the chances that pick lands a better QB than Howell?

 

 

I totally agree with this. We know what we have with Howell and I don't care where he was drafted. He can play at a high level in this league if given a supporting cast. I really do think he can attack defenses if he's given time in the pocket. This season he's running for his life as soon as the ball is snapped. Improve the OL and the defensive side and we should be in good shape.

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3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I agree with most of this.

 

By agnostic, I mean I'll trust the GM's decision whatever it is.  I don't have a beef with the build around Howell clique here.  My beef with them is the idea that he's untouchable and the decision is a no brainer to ride it with him or punt on the decision to later.  To me its far from a no brainer and the punt on this to later feels very Bruce Allen-Ron Rivera style of lets play ot medium and hope for the best.  i am tired of playing it medium, its cringe worthy for me. :ols: 

 

What I expect to happen on ths decision is somewhat predicated on the next 4 games.  I do think its relevant that Sam has struggled as the defenses have gotten tougher.    Finishing weak or strong I think likely is relevant to this decision versus the way some I gather believe which is the verdict is already in.

3 of the last 4 games are against some of the leagues best defenses on teams trending up that need to win. 

 

It's probably going to be very ugly, especially on a team that's already finished for the year.

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2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

3 of the last 4 games are against some of the leagues best defenses on teams trending up that need to win. 

 

It's probably going to be very ugly, especially on a team that's already finished for the year.

I dunno.  Everybody is auditioning.  
 

I don’t think the defense has the talent to be much better.

 

I don’t think they'll have any answers for SF.

 

But I think the offense has a chance to be ok against the Rams and Jets.  
 

Will they be? I don’t know.  But there’s a chance. 

 

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I don't hate the the thought of drafting a quarterback and rolling into next year with Howell as the starter and the rookie spending a year learning from the bench.

 

If Howell has a meteoric sophomore campaign we gotta trade the rookie if not we have a blue chip talent waiting in the wings, either way it's a good problem to have.

 

The Chiefs did it with mahomes why can't we?

 

 

And we have four other picks in the first three rounds to address the offensive line, that plus free agency should be enough to fill most of our needs and be able to hedge on the most important position in professional sports.

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15 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

3 of the last 4 games are against some of the leagues best defenses on teams trending up that need to win. 

 

It's probably going to be very ugly, especially on a team that's already finished for the year.

 

Agree.  I think though there is a limit to how much you can shrug off Sam struggiling if he does some more in the home stretch to the extent that you ignore that to embrace him reaching untouchable status.   We had the easiest DVOA defenses in the league until just now.   So struggling against some of the better defenses while is understandable is still IMO part of the bucket in evaluating Sam.  I can't weigh my GPA to only count the easier classes.

 

For example, The Bengals aren't taking a QB.  Burrow is untouchable.    Chiefs aren't taking a Qb high.  Bills aren't taking a QB.  There are a bunch of teams like that.  To give Howell that much respect as likewise untouchable takes the Howell mania a bit too far for my taste.  :ols:

 

And this is coming from a dude who took a lot of arrows for Howell through his ups and downs all season.  I think he has a good shot at being good.  But he's not untouchable to me.

 

If we we were picking mid first, I wouldn't even entertain the idea.  But if we are picking top 5 and can get a dude with billing almost as high as Luck and Burrow in Drake Maye or the Heisman Trophy winner who is compared by some to Lamar Jackson -- I am not just shrugging off those possibilities because Sam established himself as a franchise QB, as if that's a slam dunk scenario like its money in the bank. 

 

To me its an interesting decision.  If the GM decided lets build around Sam, I'd be 100% jazzed.  If the GM decided one of these QBs is special and better than Sam and rides that, I'd be jazzed, too.

 

I know some think picking a QB is so random that a monkey can do it just as well or they trust their QB evaluation skills over any scout.  You didn't say either point.  But some other posts give that vibe.  Then yeah I'd be against the idea, too.  But I am not part of that type of thinking. 

 

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1 hour ago, profusion said:

It's not just that it's a crapshoot, but that the teams typically picking at the top are usually there for more reasons than just lacking a QB.

 

This is a great point. Look no further than SF and how they've built their team and then lucked into Purdy at QB. They sold out to get Trey Lance and ended up lucking out by masterfully drafting Purdy. SF has added big names/performers thru trades and free agency while drafting well. They added Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey while bolstering the trenches and inserted some very fast and nasty linebackers. This is the model for me. Stay with Sam (cheap QB) and spend cap money/draft wisely. Keep eyes open to adding the right star quality player if one comes available. Draft a QB on day 2 or 3 like the Eagles did with Hurts, Dallas did with Prescott and SF has done with Purdy.

Top it all off with the right head coach and coaching staff.

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19 minutes ago, RVAskins said:

I totally agree with this. We know what we have with Howell and I don't care where he was drafted. He can play at a high level in this league if given a supporting cast. 


People taking this for granted is so wild to me. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. I like what I’ve seen from Howell. But we realistically have very little idea what we have in him. We have no idea if he is capable of taking the next step with a better supporting cast, that is a projection. A reasonable one perhaps, but not at all a certainty. 
 

He’s flashed plenty, he’s flailed plenty.

 

Sometimes his ball placement is out of this world. Sometimes it’s poor, moreso on deep balls when he (rarely) has the time to attempt them. His mobility is an asset and he’s produced when things break down, but the consequence of that is that we don’t know if he’s definitely a guy who excels at keeping things “on schedule”. Not totally his fault, and that’s easier to teach than playing outside of the structure. So I’m not saying this is all bad, it just adds up to not having the answers about him. 
 

Terrible situation, bad OL, bad scheme, poor playcalling, underperforming weapons. Pressure to score due to a bad D. Dead locker room, lame duck stuff. I know all about it. But through all that, he has flashed. Yes. But no sustained excellence that you can easily project into a future franchise QB. No metrics support that idea. The eye test I think favors him—he looks pretty good despite all the trash around him. But that’s not certainty. 
 

To pretend otherwise is to be as irrational as the people you think are crazy for wanting to draft a QB in the top-5. 


We really don’t know. It may absolutely be just as much of a gamble to “stick” with Howell as it would be to swing on a blue chip QB prospect if they’re on the board. Maybe even more so. There is no obvious “bird in hand” situation here, Howell is a talented wildcard doing his best in a bad situation. That doesn’t mean he projects to being a franchise guy if the situation changes, it’s not that easy. 
 

QB’s in the top-5 can be a crapshoot, yes. But a lot of those busts were picked by bad teams with bad FO’s and bad coaching staffs. We hope to have neither of those things—this potential top-5 pick is ours courtesy of Snyder’s ghost. We hope to have a competent, if not outright innovative, FO in place for this draft. You hope the scale is weighted towards you when you do that and pick a QB, if they find one worthy. Things don’t happen in a vacuum even though the position is hard to draft, when you zoom out. 

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2 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

This is a great point. Look no further than SF and how they've built their team and then lucked into Purdy at QB. They sold out to get Trey Lance and ended up lucking out by masterfully drafting Purdy. SF has added big names/performers thru trades and free agency while drafting well. They added Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey while bolstering the trenches and inserted some very fast and nasty linebackers. This is the model for me. Stay with Sam (cheap QB) and spend cap money/draft wisely. Keep eyes open to adding the right star quality player if one comes available. Draft a QB on day 2 or 3 like the Eagles did with Hurts, Dallas did with Prescott and SF has done with Purdy.

Top it all off with the right head coach and coaching staff.

 

Sounds like this is basically you saying you are off of the 1st round QB scene.  If so the best starters still weight heavily in favor of the higher drafted QBs.  For Every Brock Purdy, there are 20 Alex Brinks.

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To me this is less about Howell than about not having the chance to take Marvin Harrison, Jr. If the Bears keep Fields, then that opens up Harrison for them.  But I'd really prefer to spend that not even on offensive line talent but on a potential HoF wide receiver who has all the attributes you're looking for and his a big target for Howell.  I think even my critique of Harrison being a little soft is more to do with protecting himself until he gets to the pros.

 

It's one thing if you have a Caleb Williams ready to go (though I have my doubts on him) but I'm more skeptical on the rest.

 

For everyone hot to trot on QB, just grab yourself MH and then draft JJ McCarthy next year.

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1 hour ago, Conn said:

People taking this for granted is so wild to me. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. I like what I’ve seen from Howell. But we realistically have very little idea what we have in him. We have no idea if he is capable of taking the next step with a better supporting cast, that is a projection. A reasonable one perhaps, but not at all a certainty.

I'm not sure why this seems crazy. Look at Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Kenny Picket, and Desmond Ridder. QB's taken in the 1st round who haven't done much so far. If Howell was a 1st round pick, I don't think we'd even have this discussion. I think we need to give him a better supporting cast and see where he takes us. We can take a QB later in the draft to groom as a backup but QB is not high on my list of team needs. I know you'll never be convinced which is cool. Everyone has their own opinion here which is what this place is all about.

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40 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like Sam.  But I don't care about the talk.  Young QBs who flash get that kind of love including ones that end up meh.  Haskins got some at the end of his rookie year.  Jason Campbell got plenty of love.  Heck I can recall it like yesterday when Strahan who then was playing for the Giants said somewhere, Washington finally has a good QB or something like that

 

You get national love almost always as a young QB from the broadcasters if you flash some.  Heck if I wasn't watching the game closely and just listened to Aikman on yesterdays broadcast I'd think Tommy Devito was Joe Montana.

 

It's an interesting call IMO.  As someone who has had a lot of angst over the years about the QB spot.   Part of that is we never seem to be picking high in drafts that are perceived strong at QB sans 2012 and in that draft we'd have been better to stay pat at that pick. 

 

I hate the idea of trading up.   But Drake is anywhere near he's billing and he's sitting at our pick and lets say Daniels is Lamar Jackson Part 2 and Sam just ends up OK or good -- to me its on the list of QB blunders.  So they better be right.

 

 

Howell is much better than those guys. His stats are inflated but he's legit.

 

With a better O-line and a committed running game he'll be elite. We need to bolster O-line NOW.

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Good Coaching staff + Fat boys + capable QB is in my opinion where we need to be.  Roll with Howell.  Bring in a GM and quality coaching staff.  Start building that O-line which so many things depend on.  Purdy in this offense behind our line would not be as "Purdy".  Howell in SF under Shanny behind Trent and co. would be having every bit as much success IMO.

 

Fat boys.  Draft Fat boys.  

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30 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

 

Howell is much better than those guys. His stats are inflated but he's legit.

 

With a better O-line and a committed running game he'll be elite. We need to bolster O-line NOW.

 

I spent a lot of time at watching these QBs, I spent a lot of time on Howell going back to college.  Judging young QBs is the hardest scouting job in the world according to some.  So I don't have the belief that some here have in their scouting abilities.   I am not a professional.

 

And those who follow me on the draft thread, they know I take some strong stands on plenty of college players.

 

But QB, is a hard one for me to be absolutely sure on.

 

No offense to all the people here who think they can evaluate QBs like the best of the best can.  I am not riding on anyone's take here on Howell.   But to play to that point, if I had that level of faith in my ability to evaluate, i would take a strong stand like this too.  But as much as I've read about the QB spot, and watched -- its still really hard IMO for me to have definitive takes on young QBs.

 

I like Howell.  I would bet against elite.   I'd bet on good.  Based on a number of reasons that I spelled out.  But I am far from 100% confident.  I simply want the next GM to consider Howell versus any top QB they can draft apples to apples.  I am confident that this will happen.  So you got me why i am wasting so much energy on this. :ols: 

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