2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Chump Bailey]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Was thinking if there is some modeling of the 49ers YAC drill.  Here are the ones with the best YAC numbers in order.  I forgot to eliminate Egbuka.

 

The most interesting name on that list for me is J Michael Sturdivant - we have a pretty good take on the rest though IMO Egbuka is overrated. There is another I like: UAB WR Tejhuan Palmer 6'2" 210 lbs. 

[mhd24]

59 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I love his film, but I personally wouldn't pick him before the third round.  He had three season ending injuries in college and one in high school.  He's also going to be 24 on draft day.  He's so good, and such a special athlete.  But a 24 year old stack linebacker with two bad shoulders and two bad knees only has so much draft value.

 

I actually think he's more likely to go on day three than day two.  His medicals are going to be so terrible and stack linebackers very rarely go as high as it feels like they should.  I think Trotter, Colson, and Cooper could be the only ones taken in the top 100.

 

Cooper I could see being BPA at our second rounders, but I don't think it's likely.  The edge and corner classes are way better and deeper than the LBer class, and I think our BPA pool will be some combo of those positions + OL.

 

Yeah, you're probably right.  Wilson's age & injury history will cause him to fall.  I do think he goes 3rd rounder though.  At some point, teams will say the reward outweighs the risk.

[BayouBrave86]

I still think JD5 goes 1 after the combine but am praying Washington takes him at 2 if he is there. Maye wouldn’t be bad either, just stay away from Caleb. Also think BT Jr. ends up having just as much as a successful career as Nabers. Was hoping BT would drop to the Bills to help out Allen but he’s shooting up the draft boards. 

[Going Commando]

I want to post about Jonah Elliss since he's currently my favorite BPA candidate for us at 36.  He's 37th on PFF's Big Board, so there is some basis for projecting him in our range.  Some of you guys might remember his dad Luther Elliss, who was a Probowler and first round pick in the 90's.  He's on the coaching staff at Utah, and Jonah has three other brothers in the NFL right now, Kaden, Christian, and Noah.  Kind of reminds me of Drake Maye in how Jonah is the youngest of four brothers and the best athlete with the most pro potential of the bunch.  Long story short, he comes from major football bloodlines and it's the life for his whole family.

 

He's short for an edge, and plays as a stand up rusher, and that's why he'll probably still be there in the second despite his production, traits, and pedigree.  Super explosive first step and lateral speed.  Heads up rusher who finds the football really well.  Really nice pop in his hands and does a great job winning early and staying clean.  It's impressive how well he stays unblocked.  Sees a fair amount of doubles and still produced some splashy plays on the ball.  He's an absolute menace from the backside when he gets left open, and it's really hard to run anything exotic on him scheme-wise because of how quickly he gets downhill.  The best part is that he keeps his eyes up as rushes.  That's why his backfield stats were so good (12 sacks and 16 TFLs this year).

 

He was a consensus All American and he turns 21 in early April.  Right now I for sure have him behind Verse, Latu, Turner, and Robinson.  But after that, I like him over almost everyone else.  I like him over Braswell.  Not sure if I like him over Trice, but I'm leaning toward yes.  I think our eventual  coaching hires might determine that question, as if it's a guy like Dan Quinn coming in, then I love him for the kindof scheme we'd end up running.

 

As far as need goes, I think we might be overlooking how major the our need at Edge is now.  It's the weakest key position on the roster after QB.  We need a lead guy that we can move around and expect to generate pressure against any favorable look.  Most of the best teams in the NFL this year, and especially the ones who made the playoffs and have elite defenses, all had a star edge rusher who generated 35+ pressures and 50+ pass rush wins.  We're going to need that to build a championship caliber defense.

[philibusters]

2 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

I want to post about Jonah Elliss since he's currently my favorite BPA candidate for us at 36.  He's 37th on PFF's Big Board, so there is some basis for projecting him in our range.  Some of you guys might remember his dad Luther Elliss, who was a Probowler and first round pick in the 90's.  He's on the coaching staff at Utah, and Jonah has three other brothers in the NFL right now, Kaden, Christian, and Noah.  Kind of reminds me of Drake Maye in how Jonah is the youngest of four brothers and the best athlete with the most pro potential of the bunch.  Long story short, he comes from major football bloodlines and it's the life for his whole family.

 

He's short for an edge, and plays as a stand up rusher, and that's why he'll probably still be there in the second despite his production, traits, and pedigree.  Super explosive first step and lateral speed.  Heads up rusher who finds the football really well.  Really nice pop in his hands and does a great job winning early and staying clean.  It's impressive how well he stays unblocked.  Sees a fair amount of doubles and still produced some splashy plays on the ball.  He's an absolute menace from the backside when he gets left open, and it's really hard to run anything exotic on him scheme-wise because of how quickly he gets downhill.  The best part is that he keeps his eyes up as rushes.  That's why his backfield stats were so good (12 sacks and 16 TFLs this year).

 

He was a consensus All American and he turns 21 in early April.  Right now I for sure have him behind Verse, Latu, Turner, and Robinson.  But after that, I like him over almost everyone else.  I like him over Braswell.  Not sure if I like him over Trice, but I'm leaning toward yes.  I think our eventual  coaching hires might determine that question, as if it's a guy like Dan Quinn coming in, then I love him for the kindof scheme we'd end up running.

 

As far as need goes, I think we might be overlooking how major the our need at Edge is now.  It's the weakest key position on the roster after QB.  We need a lead guy that we can move around and expect to generate pressure against any favorable look.  Most of the best teams in the NFL this year, and especially the ones who made the playoffs and have elite defenses, all had a star edge rusher who generated 35+ pressures and 50+ pass rush wins.  We're going to need that to build a championship caliber defense.

 

If Montez Sweat was the over/under for him as a player, would you take the over, under, or stay away from the bet?

 

I am all for taking an edge with one of our two second rounders because its a weakness and premium position so getting a good player saves you a lot of money in free agency.

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Xavier Worthy is fun on the first-2nd level but at his size-speed I'd dig him more if I saw him more as a deep ball tracker ala Desean.   I couldn't tell one way or another about Xavier on that front.

I hadn’t seen much from him there either. But in watching Alabama, I thought the endzone view of his long TD was very impressive ball tracking in the air. 
 

 

[Going Commando]

1 minute ago, philibusters said:

 

If Montez Sweat was the over/under for him as a player, would you take the over, under, or stay away from the bet?

 

I am all for taking an edge with one of our two second rounders because its a weakness and premium position so getting a good player saves you a lot of money in free agency.

 

Definitely under.  Montez is a different kind of player from him.  He's a king sized every down lineman edge who is a perennial Probowler type of talent, and former first round pick.  The Bears absolutely swindled us for him, and it feels like they're one big QB and WR pick away from being a power team.  Jonah isn't that kind of player.  He's much smaller, and is going to play a stand up role.  He won't have the same level of impact as a run defender, but I think he has the talent to lead an edge rotation and generate a ton of pressure.

[seantaylor=god]

2 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Definitely under.  Montez is a different kind of player from him.  He's a king sized every down lineman edge who is a perennial Probowler type of talent, and former first round pick.  The Bears absolutely swindled us for him, and it feels like they're one big QB and WR pick away from being a power team.  Jonah isn't that kind of player.  He's much smaller, and is going to play a stand up role.  He won't have the same level of impact as a run defender, but I think he has the talent to lead an edge rotation and generate a ton of pressure.

I agree with your assessment on Montez but not sure “swindled” is fair. I’m not sure paying 100 mil for a great DE (elite though?) who may not not fit the new scheme (what are we going to run?) or may not want to sign long term (and would force us to play the franchise tag game) made sense for this team.
 

I would have been pretty critical if we turned down that trade to eke out another win or two, and then hired a GM and HC that wouldn’t want to sign him to a LTD anyway.

 

I think the compensation itself was fair. I don’t think anyone else would have offered more and it made sense to move him. No one but the Bears was offering that kind of compensation for a rental player (who they extended, which was smart).

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I hadn’t seen much from him there either. But in watching Alabama, I thought the endzone view of his long TD was very impressive ball tracking in the air. 
 

 

 

I watched 5 games.  I didn't see much of it.   He has one of the lowest average depth for his receptions and one of the lowest number of deep yards among this class.

 

He was used more in the quick game or crosses for YAC in the games I watched and the stats back that up.

 

Like I said I haven't seen enough to see if he can be a Desean Jackson type or not.   He wasn't used much in that way.   Adonai Mitchell actually was used more in that way. 

Edited January 23 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

51 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

As far as need goes, I think we might be overlooking how major the our need at Edge is now.  It's the weakest key position on the roster after QB.  We need a lead guy that we can move around and expect to generate pressure against any favorable look.  Most of the best teams in the NFL this year, and especially the ones who made the playoffs and have elite defenses, all had a star edge rusher who generated 35+ pressures and 50+ pass rush wins.  We're going to need that to build a championship caliber defense.

 

I haven't watched edges but I'll get to it, I went to town on that spot last year.

 

The odd thing though about edge is in recent years its been a good spot in FA and in many cases you don't have to pay a premium for them. 

 

In theory, I am O line and WR with the early picks.  Not because I am thinking need.  But I think there is a good chance that BPA matches need.  But i am open minded for something else.  Last year, I was actually good with TE (if traded down) and edge because there were some players I liked in that last draft in the first.

 

I don't want to return to the 2024 season with the same O line with just some project additions for 2025.  i know that much.  

Edited January 23 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

Edge will be based around what scheme we run. E.g. Macdonald runs a 3-4 in Baltimore, so if he runs the 3-4 here that's gonna change the kind of players we look for.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

Thanks. Do you by any chance have separation numbers? I know Nabers was pretty unreal in the slot this year. 

 

No seperation numbers on that draft guide that am pulling from.

Edited January 23 by Skinsinparadise

[shemp nixon]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Edge will be based around what scheme we run. E.g. Macdonald runs a 3-4 in Baltimore, so if he runs the 3-4 here that's gonna change the kind of players we look for.

IMO the 2 kids we drafted late last year are better suited for the 3-4.

[method man]

43 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I agree with your assessment on Montez but not sure “swindled” is fair. I’m not sure paying 100 mil for a great DE (elite though?) who may not not fit the new scheme (what are we going to run?) or may not want to sign long term (and would force us to play the franchise tag game) made sense for this team.
 

I would have been pretty critical if we turned down that trade to eke out another win or two, and then hired a GM and HC that wouldn’t want to sign him to a LTD anyway.

 

I think the compensation itself was fair. I don’t think anyone else would have offered more and it made sense to move him. No one but the Bears was offering that kind of compensation for a rental player (who they extended, which was smart).

He stated around the trade deadline about how Harris and Shen directed this lame duck FO to find the best offers for Young and Sweat. He called it Snyder-like and was on an island with his opinion.

 

One of the reasons we now have the #2 pick is because we had no edge rush after the deadline. If Sweat is the caliber of player he claims he is, we very possibly pull out a win vs the Jets or Rams. Give me the #2 pick + the 2nd + the cap room vs the #4 pick + Sweat

Edited January 23 by method man

[Warhead36]

Sweat is a real good player but if there is 0 chance we were gonna pay him, I'll take a top 40 pick.

 

I think GMAP would have liked to keep him, but oh well. Lets use our assets now in another way. Going all in on the DL clearly did not work out for us even if the players individually all appear to be pretty darn good(outside of Young who straight up sucks now).

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

He's good.  He was a super blue chip recruit who was one of the highest graded TEs coming out of high school in the last six or seven years.

 

So was KB's guy Baylor Cupp btw. And so was Mayer.

 

I think he ends up graded in the 40s, so picking him at 40 is not a big reach, but I would still prefer to trade back if we're targeting him.  I'd have quite a few OTs, corners, edges, and IDLs ahead of him on my board, and I think several of them will still be there in the second for us.

 

Agreed on that Texas team being loaded.  That's what infinite booster money can do for you in the era of NIL.  I too like Brooks, but I don't care for Adonai or Worthy.  I love their IDLs.

 

I'm dreaming big with those second rounders.  I'm thinking star edge, star corner, or future stud OT at those picks.  Kind of feels like we're sleeping on this strong DL class, where there is a chance that Robinson, Elliss, Braswell, or Trice is still on the board at 36.  If we get one of those guys + an OT like Paul or Amegadjie with our seconds, we'll be sitting pretty.  Follow it up with a third round where we get something like Mike Sainristil and Van Pran or Corum and I'll be super happy with our mix of upside and leadership and position value.

 

I know its recency bias but watching these young TEs in the playoffs is making me salivate.  I think he has more upside that any of these TEs aside from Bowers of course.  Yeah me, too it would be a trade back.

 

I am a BPA guy.  But I admit its tough for me to skip O line in the first two rounds again.  i can do it in the first.  but the 2nd, too?     They'd really have to sign two marquee O lineman in FA for me to run with a lets pass on the O line in the first and 2nd again drill.

 

I do think some here are at the extreme when advocating taking an O line in the first is a must.  I don't think I am going to an extreme for wanting one with one of our 2nd round picks.    Normally, I don't boxed myself into a spot.  But considering the neglect at that spot, I can't ignore it. 

Edited January 23 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

Its a deep OT draft so taking one in the 2nd round feels almost like a necessity at this point, unless we somehow address both LT and RT in FA which is super unlikely.

[Going Commando]

38 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I agree with your assessment on Montez but not sure “swindled” is fair. I’m not sure paying 100 mil for a great DE (elite though?) who may not not fit the new scheme (what are we going to run?) or may not want to sign long term (and would force us to play the franchise tag game) made sense for this team.
 

I would have been pretty critical if we turned down that trade to eke out another win or two, and then hired a GM and HC that wouldn’t want to sign him to a LTD anyway.

 

I think the compensation itself was fair. I don’t think anyone else would have offered more and it made sense to move him. No one but the Bears was offering that kind of compensation for a rental player (who they extended, which was smart).

 

That trade already looks bad, and it's going to get worse looking the better Montez plays.  We gave up a Probowl every down edge in his prime who only ended up costing 25 AAV for a second round pick.  We have had a systemic issue of devaluing our best players and selling low on them that has hopefully gone away with the Rivera regime.  We've also had a monstrous issue with getting to second contracts for players where it should be routine GM work that predates the Rivera regime, but is hopefully over now too.

 

It's also infuriating that Montez blew up and looked like Maxx Crosby literally the moment we traded him.  Wasting potential with trash coaching and scheming and getting into stupid personal agenda based feuds with our players because of trash culture is a big reason our players are so devalued, and why trading them has been such a losing game for us.  Even other bad franchises don't struggle with this like we do.  The Raiders are bad too, and do you think they'd trade Crosby for a second round pick?  Remember what they traded Khalil Mack for?  Why do we have to settle for these crap returns for our best players when other bad teams get full price for theirs?  This should be unacceptable to us, and hopefully it won't continue under the Peters regime.

[OtisDriftwood25]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know its recency bias but watching these young TEs in the playoffs is making me salivate.  I think he has more upside that any of these TEs aside from Bowers of course.  Yeah me, too it would be a trade back.

 

I am a BPA guy.  But I admit its tough for me to skip O line in the first two rounds again.  i can do it in the first.  but the 2nd, too?     They'd really have to sign two marquee O lineman in FA for me to run with a lets pass on the O line in the first and 2nd again drill.

 

I do think some here are at the extreme when advocating taking an O line in the first is a must.  I don't think I am going to an extreme for wanting one with one of our 2nd round picks.    Normally, I don't boxed myself into a spot.  But considering the neglect at that spot, I can't ignore it. 

To me there are no potential tackles in FA unless cut by a team. You can get interior lineman. We need lineman or the quarterback doesn’t have a chance. Look at CJ Stroud vs the Ravens. He scored 3 points because he was under duress the whole game. No run game and under pressure is what Howell dealt with all season. Even CJ Stroud couldn’t overcome that. 

[seantaylor=god]

10 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

That trade already looks bad, and it's going to get worse looking the better Montez plays.  We gave up a Probowl every down edge in his prime who only ended up costing 25 AAV for a second round pick.  We have had a systemic issue of devaluing our best players and selling low on them that has hopefully gone away with the Rivera regime.  We've also had a monstrous issue with getting to second contracts for players where it should be routine GM work that predates the Rivera regime, but is hopefully over now too.

 

It's also infuriating that Montez blew up and looked like Maxx Crosby literally the moment we traded him.  Wasting potential with trash coaching and scheming and getting into stupid personal agenda based feuds with our players because of trash culture is a big reason our players are so devalued, and why trading them has been such a losing game for us.. This should be unacceptable to us, and hopefully it won't continue under the Peters

Agree. I’m hopeful that as our team gets better players want to re-sign with us early, we get better FAs, and average players look great in our scheme, so we can be on the winning end of some trades.

 

 

Edited January 23 by seantaylor=god

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

That trade already looks bad, and it's going to get worse looking the better Montez plays.  We gave up a Probowl every down edge in his prime who only ended up costing 25 AAV for a second round pick.  We have had a systemic issue of devaluing our best players and selling low on them that has hopefully gone away with the Rivera regime.  We've also had a monstrous issue with getting to second contracts for players where it should be routine GM work that predates the Rivera regime, but is hopefully over now too.

 

It's also infuriating that Montez blew up and looked like Maxx Crosby literally the moment we traded him.  Wasting potential with trash coaching and scheming and getting into stupid personal agenda based feuds with our players because of trash culture is a big reason our players are so devalued, and why trading them has been such a losing game for us.  Even other bad franchises don't struggle with this like we do.  The Raiders are bad too, and do you think they'd trade Crosby for a second round pick?  Remember what they traded Khalil Mack for?  Why do we have to settle for these crap returns for our best players when other bad teams get full price for theirs?  This should be unacceptable to us, and hopefully it won't continue under the Peters regime.

I agree with your general premise but there is no way Sweat is on the same tier as Maxx Crosby. Crosby is a legit DPOY canddiate. Sweat is a real good player but on a scale of 1-5 he's a 4, at best 4.5. Crosby is a stone cold 5.

[Going Commando]

On 1/22/2024 at 8:54 AM, HTTRDynasty said:

Yeah, I actually meant to put Love first on the NFC list but completely forgot when I was typing. I think he tops the NFC list in terms of eye test (unlike Purdy IMO).  It will be interesting to see which of the young QBs step up over the next few years to take the conference by the horns.

 

I forgot about Kyler Murray too.  The dude seems like a bit of an asshole, and he's coming off a major injury, but both of those things are true about Joe Burrow too.  Murray is so talented that I could see him bouncing back next year.  A comeback player of the year type season with 30+ TDs and 400-500 yards rushing and almost 4000 yards passing feels attainable for him.  That offense looks talent-laden all of a sudden: Conner, McBride, Hollywood Brown, and probably Marvin Harrison Jr.  An improving OL.  We thought they were going to be destitute this season and that Gannon was a bit of a clown, but they played everyone tough.  They've got #4, #27, #35, #66, #71, and #90.   They can get MHJr and drastically reinforce their defense in one draft.  Really tough division, but Seattle is in flux and the Niners and Rams are going to start aging hard pretty soon.  This team feels like it could be a problem pretty soon, and it all depends on Murray.  If he gets back to the player he was in his second and third seasons, then they'll be tough.

[clskinsfan]

4 hours ago, Going Commando said:

I think Trotter, Colson, and Cooper could be the only ones taken in the top 100.

I agree. I might add Cedric Gray to that list as well. But if WIlson was there with our 2nd 3rd rounder I think I would take him. He is worth the risk since we have two 3rds to play with. And I think he is the best LB in the draft. My opinion obviously. 

[Going Commando]

25 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I agree with your general premise but there is no way Sweat is on the same tier as Maxx Crosby. Crosby is a legit DPOY canddiate. Sweat is a real good player but on a scale of 1-5 he's a 4, at best 4.5. Crosby is a stone cold 5.

 

Sweat is a better player in Chicago than he was here.  He basically turned into a rusher with a 20-25% win rate like the big dog edges once he got there, and transformed their defense into a really good one post deadline.  He was their missing piece, and he's going to be their Crosby/Hutchinson/Bosa/Watt/Anderson/Parsons/Garrett/Jones as they try and make the jump into contention.

 

We got used to the idea of Sweat's ceiling being an 8 sack guy who can take the occasional game over, a la Preston Smith.  A strong starter but not a Pro-Bowler.  In reality his ceiling was much higher and he hit it with the Bears this year.  He's a Probowler now.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Its a deep OT draft so taking one in the 2nd round feels almost like a necessity at this point, unless we somehow address both LT and RT in FA which is super unlikely.

So what do you think the cost would be to move from 36 to the 20-32 zone, or to the top of round 2 if they are all getting peeled off and we begin to --- our pants worrying they'll all be gone? How much does it cost to move up 5-10 picks from 36? That's what I'm curious about.