2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[KDawg]

5 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Can’t trade Terry if we draft a QB. Gotta surround the rookie with legit weapons.

I don't know. I think you CAN.

 

The question is more: If you decide to trade your best weapon, what is your plan to help the quarterback? (vet or young doesn't make a difference because having no weapons will hurt either/or).

[Going Commando]

10 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Where would you guys rank Penix relative to the other QB's if he didn't have the injury history?

 

Second rounder IMO.  I don't think any of his tools are special.  I think his accuracy/placement is average, his arm talent is a little below average, and his mobility is average.  I also think the dramatic improvement in his field vision/reading skills this season were a product of him being a sixth year senior playing in a stacked offense.

 

I keep seeing all of these takes with clips that are supposed to demonstrate his superior arm talent and none of them do.  They are clips of side arming screen passes to the flat, which is something every modern QB prospect can do.  Clips of throwing a near side out from the hash, or loading up big time to throw deep from the far hash.  Those are not demonstrations of elite arm strength at all.  He's also got a long, low release and that's why Oregon tipped so many of his passes.

 

To me his ceiling is Jimmie Garappolo.  Giving up a shot at Maye or Daniels for him would be insanity.

[RWJ]

43 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I don't know. I think you CAN.

 

The question is more: If you decide to trade your best weapon, what is your plan to help the quarterback? (vet or young doesn't make a difference because having no weapons will hurt either/or).

We get into the mid-late (15-20 range) of the 1st and a team wants to trade their 1st for Terry and Xavier Legette is still on the board, I'm making that trade all day long.  

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

 I also think the dramatic improvement in his field vision/reading skills this season were a product of him being a sixth year senior playing in a stacked offense.

 

 

 

I only really agree with this one part of this post, but it's an important part of the evaluation of Penix and deserves emphasis.

 

I think his arm is good. Not elite, but NFL quality. 

 

I think his release is quick and he makes decisions quickly. Which is his major selling point. He doesn't hold the ball like these other guys who hold it forever. 

 

I think he is average athletically.

 

I think he has good overall QB size. Not outstanding, but good.

 

But the long collegiate career absolutely has to be a consideration. And he hasn't been hurt in two years which is great and in large part due to his processing speed and quick release, but he got hurt every year while he was in Indiana. That has to be taken into consideration, too. 

 

 

[Going Commando]

15 hours ago, Curtisp5286 said:

If I was to try to tweak this set of rules to more align with today’s game, I would need to bump up the completion % and TD:INT ratio to 65% and 3:1.  Would also probably need to cut it back to a 3+ year player, 25 starts, and 18 wins.  Or something like that.

 

There is no way to circumvent an evaluation based on watching film and doing interviews in football, and there never will be.  Trying to come up with these lazy, baseball-style stat based systems that make the attempt will never work.  They can never account for the complexity and context of the team, and they always try and build some kind of largely arbitrary statistical criteria backwards from the result of looking at QBs who panned out in the NFL (always heavily situationally dependent) to encapsulate in a few numbers what they all had in common, and it never even accomplishes that.

[kingdaddy]

11 hours ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Only trouble with the argument that getting the franchise QB at 1/2 is highly unlikely is that getting the franchise QB at a lower pick is EVEN LESS likely.

 

If the front office isn’t confident in any of the QBs in that range, then yeah, trade down, but if they do like someone a lot, then take him.  You will need to get him somewhere and near the top of the draft is the easiest place to find him.

No question about it, you can't beat having the first shot at the top prospect. The problem, history has shown that the franchise QB rarely comes out of the top two picks. Crazy isn't it? Just goes to show how hard it is to find the guy you're looking for. I am very envious of the Bears position right now and would love for that to be us next year all while hoping we can coach up Howell or a QB we draft this year. I wonder if Chen, our analytics guy, will use analytics in our draft position and the chances of getting the franchise QB?

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

No question about it, you can't beat having the first shot at the top prospect. The problem, history has shown that the franchise QB rarely comes out of the top two picks. Crazy isn't it? Just goes to show how hard it is to find the guy you're looking for. I am very envious of the Bears position right now and would love for that to be us next year all while hoping we can coach up Howell or a QB we draft this year. I wonder if Chen, our analytics guy, will use analytics in our draft position and the chances of getting the franchise QB?

 

If Shen uses analytics (and Harris/GM/HC are also analytical) it's not going to be Caleb Williams. To draft Caleb Williams you have to be an abstract thinker and realize his strongest point is his off platform stuff. He doesn't perform well in metrics, really, other than straight statistical data. 

[philibusters]

13 hours ago, FlyBigBeard said:

I think Nix does 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

 

Nix has grown on me.  He doesn't have the traits that Williams, Maye, or Daniels has, but he is really comfortable within structure.  I think Nix would really benefit from working with a good OC who creates a scheme advantage.   If you the OC creates a scheme advantage I feel like Nix won't waste it and he'll play reasonably well.  By contrast, if Nix ends up with a lower level OC, he doesn't really do enough outside of structure to make you confident that he'll succeed.

[Darrell Green Fan]

This team needs upgrades all over the roster. I see in particular guards, centers, safeties, running backs and tight ends who were taken in the middle rounds be good NFL players all over the league. Which is good news for a team with so many picks as these are all need positions.  

[Going Commando]

17 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

If Shen uses analytics (and Harris/GM/HC are also analytical) it's not going to be Caleb Williams. To draft Caleb Williams you have to be an abstract thinker and realize his strongest point is his off platform stuff. He doesn't perform well in metrics, really, other than straight statistical data. 

 

If the metrics you're using to evaluate QBs can't see how good Caleb Williams is, then they are useless for evaluation.  You keep acting like Caleb is hard to see coming, and it's actually the complete opposite case.  He's been the easiest to see coming elite prospect since Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck.  It's impossible to watch him play on Saturday, and then watch Patrick Mahomes play on Sunday and fail to see the comparison.  It's impossible to watch any of his games over the past three years and fail to see he's the best player on the field virtually every time.  His talent is so spectacular and palpable and "know it when you see it" that it feels like the people who don't see it with him either:

 

A - didn't actually watch him

Or

B - have agendas or biases causing them to dislike him on a largely personal level

 

Let's have a little perspective here about Williams.  He's arguably the strongest #1 overall choice in 11 years.  QB prospects don't generally come much better than him.

[KDawg]

Just now, Going Commando said:

 

If the metrics you're using to evaluate QBs can't see how good Caleb Williams is, then they are useless for evaluation.  You keep acting like Caleb is hard to see coming, and it's actually the complete opposite case.  He's been the easiest to see coming elite prospect since Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck.  It's impossible to watch him play on Saturday, and then watch Patrick Mahomes play on Sunday and fail to see the comparison.  It's impossible to watch any of his games over the past three years and fail to see he's the best player on the field virtually every time.  His talent is so spectacular and palpable and "know it when you see it" that it feels like the people who don't see it with him either:

 

A - didn't actually watch him

Or

B - have agendas or biases causing them to dislike him on a largely personal level

 

Let's have a little perspective here about Williams.  He's arguably the strongest #1 overall choice in 11 years.  QB prospects don't generally come much better than him.

 

You're wrong.

 

I watched him.

 

I don't think he's a God like you do.

 

It's okay to disagree.

[Going Commando]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

You're wrong.

 

I watched him.

 

I don't think he's a God like you do.

 

It's okay to disagree.

 

I know you watched him, and that's why I stipulated category B.  I think you have an agenda/bias about him that is ruining your perspective and evaluation of him.

[Coopskin44]

    Can you really say that anyone of the so called top QB’s of this draft are cant  miss or we need to take one of the 3?I just don’t see any of the 3 worth picking that high.I was at the Notre Dame game vs USC and Williams got his ass handed to him and was completely frustrated.Maye makes some decisions that you just shake your head and Daniels is just to green.To many holes to fill I’m for trade back more picks get a QB later in the 1st or early 2nd.Just my opinion I know it won’t happen but I know some exciting times are ahead.

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I know you watched him, and that's why I stipulated category B.  I think you have an agenda/bias about him that is ruining your perspective and evaluation of him.

I don’t think so. 
 

I don’t think he’s as good as the hype, but still possibly QB1.

 

I learned a lot from Howell. Howell is short. His passes are deflected a lot. Williams is the same height. He does have longer arms, which will help. 
 

He holds the ball a looooong time. He won’t be able to hold it as long in the NFL.

 

He has a good arm. But sometimes I think he struggles seeing the field from the pocket.
 

I love his athleticism and his off platform plays. 
 

I don’t love his advanced analytics, but I acknowledge some of that is bloat for the sake of bloat. 
 

I don’t love the smoke about his personality, but at this point I don’t know a thing about his personality. 
 

He’s still QB1 for me. 
 

I think you and I disagree more on Maye than we do Williams, to be honest.

 

I just don’t see Williams as some God. He has flaws and I think we ignore a lot of his red flags here. I don’t want people to think he’s some auto savior. He’s not. But he creates as well as anyone. So he could be a major snag. Which is why I’m having a hard time moving him from QB1.
 

And, for what it’s worth, I thought Lawrence was QB1 but he had warts, too, and would probably wind up solid but maybe not great. And so far I think I nailed that eval…

 

While I missed a bit on Fields, though I’m hoping that comes around… and a little on Howell, though that class is looking really freakin bad right now. 

Edited January 6 by KDawg

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I don’t think so. 
 

I don’t think he’s as good as the hype, but still possibly QB1

 

I appreciate the self reflective and traits-based response, but I think you're perspective on Caleb is limited.  Statements about his strengths like "he has a good arm" demonstrate that to me.  The arm isn't just good, it's one of the best college arms I've ever seen.  Maybe the best.  The athleticism and the creativity are in that special air too.  Him holding the ball forever in the pocket isn't like what Howell does.  It's not taking forever to get to his decision and then getting smacked, it's him creating and making special plays.

 

Us draft thread regulars have been around here so long that we know each other's takes well, and I know you don't like Caleb's personality because I don't like it either and it's for a lot of the same reasons.  I don't like the **** Utah nail polish crap either, don't like the crying on the sidelines, don't like his ego and big mouth.  I know you liked Rattler because I liked him too, and was shocked to see him struggle so much at Oklahoma and then get replaced by Williams who immediately started tearing it up.  And I didn't like Howell as much as you, but I still liked him and I appreciate that he's a super coachable and low maintenance dude who got a bad break with this organization.  It's gonna feel ****ty to kick him to the curb for a kid with an ego like Caleb Williams.  But if the opportunity is there we have to take it.  The high maintenance star QB isn't a barrier to success in the NFL.  Caleb is so freaking good that I just don't care enough about the personality to fail to recognize how lucky we would be to get him.  We can work around the conflict he might cause so long as we have the talent.

[gooseneck]

Offensive Tackle?

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

Caleb Williams is so used to being the best player on the field by a wide margin, and that allows him to dominate outside of structure on a fairly consistent basis. My hesitancy with him is whether he’ll be able to do the same against NFL competition. If he can’t learn to operate reliably in structure (which is far from guaranteed), I can see him struggling to become a top 10 QB at the next level. 
 

I don’t think most people realize how valuable it was for Mahomes to sit behind Smith his first year to rebuild his fundamentals/mechanics and learn to operate the offense on time and on rhythm. That’s a luxury I doubt Williams will have, and that may ultimately negatively affect his trajectory as a pro. 
 

Edited January 6 by HTTRDynasty

[gooseneck]

 

[gooseneck]

 

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

I appreciate the self reflective and traits-based response, but I think you're perspective on Caleb is limited.  Statements about his strengths like "he has a good arm" demonstrate that to me.  The arm isn't just good, it's one of the best college arms I've ever seen.  Maybe the best.  The athleticism and the creativity are in that special air too.  Him holding the ball forever in the pocket isn't like what Howell does.  It's not taking forever to get to his decision and then getting smacked, it's him creating and making special plays.

 

Us draft thread regulars have been around here so long that we know each other's takes well, and I know you don't like Caleb's personality because I don't like it either and it's for a lot of the same reasons.  I don't like the **** Utah nail polish crap either, don't like the crying on the sidelines, don't like his ego and big mouth.  I know you liked Rattler because I liked him too, and was shocked to see him struggle so much at Oklahoma and then get replaced by Williams who immediately started tearing it up.  And I didn't like Howell as much as you, but I still liked him and I appreciate that he's a super coachable and low maintenance dude who got a bad break with this organization.  It's gonna feel ****ty to kick him to the curb for a kid with an ego like Caleb Williams.  But if the opportunity is there we have to take it.  The high maintenance star QB isn't a barrier to success in the NFL.  Caleb is so freaking good that I just don't care enough about the personality to fail to recognize how lucky we would be to get him.  We can work around the conflict he might cause so long as we have the talent.

 

So therein lies the rub. I don't think he's as good as you do on a grand scale. So IF there are personality issues, I'm not sure you can overcome them. You do. 

 

But I don't know. 

 

I'll say this, if the personality issues have any basis in truth he won't be my QB1 anymore.

[FrFan]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

So therein lies the rub. I don't think he's as good as you do on a grand scale. So IF there are personality issues, I'm not sure you can overcome them. You do. 

 

But I don't know. 

 

I'll say this, if the personality issues have any basis in truth he won't be my QB1 anymore.

Red Flags on Caleb Williams

[ThatNFLChick]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

If the metrics you're using to evaluate QBs can't see how good Caleb Williams is, then they are useless for evaluation.  You keep acting like Caleb is hard to see coming, and it's actually the complete opposite case.  He's been the easiest to see coming elite prospect since Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck.  It's impossible to watch him play on Saturday, and then watch Patrick Mahomes play on Sunday and fail to see the comparison.  It's impossible to watch any of his games over the past three years and fail to see he's the best player on the field virtually every time.  His talent is so spectacular and palpable and "know it when you see it" that it feels like the people who don't see it with him either:

 

A - didn't actually watch him

Or

B - have agendas or biases causing them to dislike him on a largely personal level

 

Let's have a little perspective here about Williams.  He's arguably the strongest #1 overall choice in 11 years.  QB prospects don't generally come much better than him.

 

Well here's the thing, Josh Harris is going to rely heavily on analytics. Everyone has said it, and his first hire has indicated it. Regardless of how any of us feel, if analytics is what he leans on and what he will want his GM and HC to lean on they might not agree with you on Williams. 

 

 

[TrustTheProcessHTTR]

Im in the middle with the Williams debate because as much as I really like him the better prospect for us might actually be Daniels especially if we bring some Raven FO and coaches over like some rumors suggest. All the height talk is dumb imo bc just like the NBA certain players play above their height and some don't. Howell doesnt play above but Caleb does. Also hes a whopping one inch shorter than Patrick Mahomes go figure. So that needs to be put to bed. Ultimately it will come down to what the bears do and our FO preference for the scheme that you want to run. I do know I would hate seeing and go up against Caleb in a conference championship game needing to make a stop on 4th down in a goal to go situation.

[clskinsfan]

16 hours ago, skinsmania123 said:

the Penix at Indiana, who was so injury prone, with the Penix at Washington

Compare then protection he had at both as well. His line in Washington is amazing. He would get obliterated behind this OL. At least Williams, Maye or Daniels would be able to scramble themselves into protection. 

[gooseneck]