2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[No Nonsense]

7 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

I don't want Bo Nix and they'll obviously also look at ADOT but sack ratio is definitely not a worthless stat. It has actually been one of the more reliable indicators when it comes to QB success (along with accuracy)

 

 

 

It took Josh Allen 3 seasons to become the Josh Allen that we see today. It wasn't until 2020 that he even hit a 60% completion percentage and Maye doesn't have his arm nor his build but apparently does have similar accuracy issues

 

From what I've seen and read, his arm strength is very good. 6-4, 230 LBs, can make all the throws with mobility. I'm sold. 

[ThatNFLChick]

32 minutes ago, gooseneck said:

Interesting analysis later in video on drafting QB and analytics  

 

 

 

Thanks. I also think a trading back a few spots is quite likely. Nobody wants to hear it but an analytics approach to the draft definitely doesn't guarantee picking a QB at 2

[Skinsinparadise]

22 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I really don’t understand how Williams numbers in that photo translate to best prospect in the draft. 

 

Depends on what of their numbers you look at.  Three seasons back to back with 90 plus aggregate grades for example for Caleb is unique for them.  Drake did it twice in a row and had multiple other categories with 90s.

 

But regardless, as I've explained on other threads, PFF isn't a slave to their numbers when it comes to draft evaluations.  On that front, they consider tools and context.   I talked about it among other examples when it came to them giving Ricky Stromberg really high scores yet didn't rate him high as a player.  Ditto ironically Ivan Pace.

 

But sometimes they will elevate a player some because of their scores.  Brock Purdy being an example.  And in this draft they are higher on Bo Nix than most.   So it depends on the player.  But if you look at PFF's raw scores of players versus their ranking of draft prospects, sometimes they correspond, sometimes they don't, for reasons i explained

 

I know the PFF guys are like the devil to some here  (not you) but I find their draft guys interesting.  Trevor Sikkema especially.  Not that i always agree with them but they dive deep and have access to every game.

 

And they watch players like we do and will run with their opinion like Palazzolo below.  They don't always agree with each other on takes.  Just like we don't agree with each other either.  

 

 

 

 

 

[KDawg]

I’m so tired of hyperbole.

 

”Best college QB I’ve ever seen throwing in the middle”

 

Either he doesn’t watch much or he’s exaggerating. There’s one of those “best I’ve ever see “ every single year. It’s exhausting.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I’m so tired of hyperbole.

 

”Best college QB I’ve ever seen throwing in the middle”

 

Either he doesn’t watch much or he’s exaggerating. There’s one of those “best I’ve ever see “ every single year. It’s exhausting.

As long as its not the same person saying it every year is it exaggerating though? Hasselbeck says Maye is the best prospect he has ever seen in his 15 years of evaluating QB's. He has never said that before. So I think you have to take the comments in context of who is saying them.

[Skins199021]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I’m so tired of hyperbole.

 

”Best college QB I’ve ever seen throwing in the middle”

 

Either he doesn’t watch much or he’s exaggerating. There’s one of those “best I’ve ever see “ every single year. It’s exhausting.

I will say Michael Penix’s game against Texas from start to finish was one of the best I’ve seen a QB have in a long time 

 

that’s legit 

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

As long as it’s not the same person saying it every year is it exaggerating though? Hasselbeck says Maye is the best prospect he has ever seen in his 15 years of evaluating QB's. He has never said that before. So I think you have to take the comments in context of who is saying them.

So we’re doing the thing that Maye is the best prospect ever, now? 
 

Edit: Hasselbeck says in the last 15 years, not ever. 
 

So… we’re doing the thing that Maye is the best QB prospect in the last 15 years? 

Edited January 3 by KDawg

[ThatNFLChick]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

As long as its not the same person saying it every year is it exaggerating though? Hasselbeck says Maye is the best prospect he has ever seen in his 15 years of evaluating QB's. He has never said that before. So I think you have to take the comments in context of who is saying them.

 

This is the same Hasselbeck that said Sam was the future and he believed in him? Him?

 

Everyone can find some media personality who loves their guy. The numbers need to back it up and I def don't think they do for some of the guys this board loves. 

Edited January 3 by ThatNFLChick

[seantaylor=god]

How much better is Caleb Williams as a prospect than Drake Maye?

 

How much positive/negative value do you place with the two unique situations for each player if they came to Washington?

 

I think having Sam here is a huge advantage to Drake, from acclimating to the league, having a familiar face and friend, and is a tremendous advantage to the QB room.

 

Caleb being from DC is cool, but I think it’s actually terrible. Tons of people/friends in their 20’s coming out of the woodwork looking to party with a NFL player, searching for handouts/investments, tons of distractions, etc. I may be overthinking it but I can imagine a multitude of different ways he fails here just based on coming back to your hometown. 
 

Am I just being overly pessimistic? Chase Young and Haskins both failed here but Jon Allen hasn’t had any issue.

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

So we’re doing the thing that Maye is the best prospect ever, now? 

IMO? No. Manning was to me. But Hasselbeck didnt grade Manning. He did however grade Burrow, who I had very high as well, and he thinks Maye is a better prospect than Burrow. That is saying something. I still think Williams is a better prospect than Maye. But I after watching more tape I am fine with taking Maye at 2.

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

IMO? No. Manning was to me. But Hasselbeck didnt grade Manning. He did however grade Burrow, who I had very high as well, and he thinks Maye is a better prospect than Burrow. That is saying something. I still think Williams is a better prospect than Maye. But I after watching more tape I am fine with taking Maye at 2.

 

Sorry but saying Maye is a better prospect than Burrow is absolute nonsense. I mean, he's entitled to his opinion but there is not a single stat/data point/level of competition, etc to back that up. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

This is the same Hasselbeck that said Sam was the future and he believed in him? Him?

 

You got a link to that? All I ever heard him say was he COULD be successful if the Commanders had the right system for him. He never claimed he was a superstar. NOT ONCE.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

IMO? No. Manning was to me. But Hasselbeck didnt grade Manning. He did however grade Burrow, who I had very high as well, and he thinks Maye is a better prospect than Burrow. That is saying something. I still think Williams is a better prospect than Maye. But I after watching more tape I am fine with taking Maye at 2.

My point is: “best prospect ever” should be saved and used for… the best prospect ever. Drake Maye isn’t. I’m not sold he’s even a great prospect. Good, sure. And I think if he hits his upside he’ll be good.

 

But best ever (or decade, or 1.5 decades) is an extremely hot take. 
 

I don’t see how you can watch Maye and come away saying, “holy **** this guy could be one of the best college prospects to ever grace our TV screens!”

 

If people do, okay I guess. But only if they REALLY believe that. Like full conviction.

 

I think a lot of these guys just want clicks and attention, personally.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Sorry but saying Maye is a better prospect than Burrow is absolute nonsense.

In your opinion? Yep.

[Est.1974]

27 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Thanks. I also think a trading back a few spots is quite likely. Nobody wants to hear it but an analytics approach to the draft definitely doesn't guarantee picking a QB at 2

I actually agree, for what it’s worth 😂

[Skins199021]

3 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Sorry but saying Maye is a better prospect than Burrow is absolute nonsense. I mean, he's entitled to his opinion but there is not a single stat/data point/level of competition, etc to back that up. 

I think that’s my problem. Usually we are trying to discount inflated college stats 

 

for some reason In Mayes case people

want to look past his underwhelming 2023 numbers across an extremely weak schedule 

 

 

[Est.1974]

21 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I’m so tired of hyperbole.

You’re in the wrong thread then 😂

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

You’re in the wrong thread then 😂

Not really. The people here are pretty good about it, I think. 
 

Measured takes. I actually trust our collective here more than many of the actual analysts. We don’t have some of the same access, of course. But measured takes are a plenty here.

[ExoDus84]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Measured takes. I actually trust our collective here more than many of the actual analysts. We don’t have some of the same access, of course. But measured takes are a plenty here.

 

This is the most accurate, level-headed post I've ever read in my entire life.

 

Well done, K.

[clskinsfan]

35 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

want to look past his underwhelming 2023 numbers across an extremely weak schedule

You have to take into account what he had to work with as well. Maye was under pressure more than any other NCAA QB in 2023. He was pressured on 37% of his drop backs. Dead last in college football. Yet he was only sacked 29 times. He led college football in big time throws with that pressure rate with 45. Caleb Williams was second in that category by the way. Maye also had one of the highest drop rates in the NCAA. He led the nation in total scrambles as well. He was 6th nationally with 79 total 1st downs vs. pressure. Mayes advanced stats, especially vs. pressure, are amazing when you consider he had absolutely no help at all. 

Edited January 3 by clskinsfan

[JamesMadisonSkins]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You have to take into account what he had to work with as well. Maye was under pressure more than any other NCAA QB in 2023. He was pressured on 37% of his drop backs. Dead last in college football. Yet he was only sacked 29 times. He led college football in big time throws with that pressure rate with 45. Caleb Williams was second in that category by the way. Maye also had one of the highest drop rates in the NCAA. He led the nation in total scrambles as well. He was 6th nationally with 79 total 1st downs vs. pressure. Mayes advanced stats, especially vs. pressure, are amazing. 

 

Man, between Howell and Maye, UNC needs to start focusing some of their NIL on OL haha

CBSSports Latest Mock Draft re: QBs:

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams

2. Washington - Drake Maye

3. New England - Jayden Daniels

12. Minnesota - Michael Penix

14. Denver - Bo Nix

 

 

[ThatNFLChick]

32 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

I think that’s my problem. Usually we are trying to discount inflated college stats 

 

for some reason In Mayes case people

want to look past his underwhelming 2023 numbers across an extremely weak schedule 

 

 

 

To say his schedule was extremely weak is an understatement which is why I don't put much stock in him not having elite players, he also did not have elite or even tough competition at all. 

 

[mhd24]

15 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Man, between Howell and Maye, UNC needs to start focusing some of their NIL on OL haha

CBSSports Latest Mock Draft re: QBs:

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams

2. Washington - Drake Maye

3. New England - Jayden Daniels

12. Minnesota - Michael Penix

14. Denver - Bo Nix

 

 

 

I can't see a team drafting Penix with a high first with his medical history.  Two ACL tears and two shoulder tears makes him undraftable until the 20s at the earliest IMO.  Bo Nix is old for a prospect.  Can't see Payton drafting him when he loves Stidham.  Heck, I could see Denver as a destination for Kirk in the off-season (Atlanta is the leader in the clubhouse on that one).

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

So we’re doing the thing that Maye is the best prospect ever, now? 
 

Edit: Hasselbeck says in the last 15 years, not ever. 
 

So… we’re doing the thing that Maye is the best QB prospect in the last 15 years? 

Who you got as the best QB, in your opinion in the draft, right now, KDawg!  

[FootballZombie]

48 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I actually trust our collective here

 

You should bet your mortgage next month.