2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[philibusters]

10 hours ago, FLSkinz83 said:

I wouldn't draft any of these QB's with the exception of Young.   I'd rather develop Howell.

 

I am in the same boat.   Look if Stroud or Levis was available at 18 or wherever we are drafting then maybe I would take them.  But they won't be available without giving up this year first rounder plus a future first rounder most likely and I don't feel good enough about any of them that I would take that bet.  I think we got good value in Howell and want to see what he can do even though I am not confident in him either.   With him though, there is no additional cost;  We are not spending an additional two rounders to find out if Howell is a franchise QB.

[Est.1974]

I could see 2 of our first three picks being OL. Wouldn’t surprise me if Roullier got cut in the offseason. Maybe gets an offer to re work his deal first.

[philibusters]

5 hours ago, Peregrine said:

At this point, with the D playing like it is, you have to be focusing on just 3 spots.  QB, Oline(really, its mostly Oline), and LB.  Get a good LB, draft some good DLine, and then get the best QB available.

 

Or do what some people suggest, and "develop" Howell next season to set up the team to get a top 3 Draft pick in 2024 and a top QB.

 

I think corner is a big need too.  Fuller is getting up there in age and other than St. Juste, none of the young guys look like sure shots.  Right now we have McCain playing the nickle corner but he is getting older too.  Fuller is 27 years and 9 months and McCain is 29 years and 3 months.

[philibusters]

4 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I could see 2 of our first three picks being OL. Wouldn’t surprise me if Roullier got cut in the offseason. Maybe gets an offer to re work his deal first.

 

There is enough dead money with Roullier I don't think we would cut him.  It basically comes out to 7.7 millions savings a 5.1 deadcap for a net savings of 2.6 million.  In over 1000 snaps in 2020 he had a PFF grade of 76.8 and in about 500 snaps last he had a 83.7 PFF grade.  So if he is healthy, you are getting top 5 or 6 Center play in the league.  I know he missed slightly over half of last year and all but a couple games this season, but a 2.6 million savings isn't worth not taking the upside bet next  year he stays healthy.  Its the following year where you are looking at big net savings (9.1 million) https://overthecap.com/player/chase-roullier/5785

[Est.1974]

3 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

There is enough dead money with Roullier I don't think we would cut him.  It basically comes out to 7.7 millions savings a 5.1 deadcap for a net savings of 2.6 million.  In over 1000 snaps in 2020 he had a PFF grade of 76.8 and in about 500 snaps last he had a 83.7 PFF grade.  So if he is healthy, you are getting top 5 or 6 Center play in the league.  I know he missed slightly over half of last year and all but a couple games this season, but a 2.6 million savings isn't worth not taking the upside bet next  year he stays healthy.  Its the following year where you are looking at big net savings (9.1 million) https://overthecap.com/player/chase-roullier/5785

Maybe so. Back to back injury hit years. He is due very good money next season. However he did restructure early this year to help on the salary cap. I think he may be asked to take less money in 2023 but that is a complete guess to be fair  

[KDawg]

To me it's clear that this is the pecking order:

 

QB > LT > CB > Edge

 

Where we pick determines a lot of this. 

 

If we get a top 5 pick (would need to be via trade at this point) than QB is the priority.

 

If we pick in the late teens/early twenties then BPA is on the table... Is Sweat here? if so, Edge is less of a priority weight. Is LT3 better than CB 4? Or whatever CB/LT we are on.

 

Going to be interesting to see how it plays out. Looks like we're not going to be in position for Paris Johnson, so we may be looking at OG2 in the mid twenties at this point, who the heck knows where we finish, I'm done trying to figure this team out. But is OG2 (or OG1) > OT3? OG1/2 > CB 3?

 

We'll see how it all plays out for sure. I'm going to start watching prospects soon so I'll have a better idea of the path I'd travel.

[Est.1974]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

But is OG2 (or OG1) > OT3? OG1/2 > CB 3?

That is football algebra. 

[KDawg]

Looks like I was right about Zach Wilson. Comes across as an entitled player who doesn’t hold himself accountable. I always thought there was something missing from his game. Until he holds himself accountable he always will be missing something.

[philibusters]

48 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Looks like I was right about Zach Wilson. Comes across as an entitled player who doesn’t hold himself accountable. I always thought there was something missing from his game. Until he holds himself accountable he always will be missing something.

 

He was a guy I was a bit slow to buy into, but eventually I bought into him.  There was a feel he could make throws on the run  and improvise, but listening to the PFF podcast, he is terrible under pressure and okay in a clean pocket.  The problem is like Wentz he doesen't handle pressure well.  Wentz is different htan Wilson in that he tends to be a bit of a statute and not move up in the pocket well or slide to the side.  By contrast Wilson tends to be very quick to break out of the pocket where he can make an off platform throw.  And he does make some nice off platform throws, but breaking out of the pocket and kind of killing the play design is less efficient and when you do that at even a small amount of pressure, it means you are going to be inefficient, which Wilson is.

[Rolo Tomasie]

Some thoughts about QBs.....

Shame about Hooker. But I was really cooling off on him. I started noticing him last year while watching Corral. I posted on here how much better I thought hooker was than Corral. But now that I have watched him more, I see a guy with some kind of gangly, odd athleticism, almost like an RG3. When he gets hit it's awkward. I think he is always going to be an injury risk.

 

Levis is exciting when you look at his traits. Hard to evaluate because the team around him sucks. I love the tools, hate the accuracy issues and he doesn't throw with anticipation. I think he has to be developed, would not be a day 1 starter. But could be real good eventually.

 

Daniels is too small. Maybe Young too, though I LOVE how he manages a game and his accuracy. I just can't go Ohio State QBs any more so I wouldn't draft Stroud very high. But I haven't really looked at young and stroud as serious options because they'll be drafted out of our range.

 

Leary.....man what an arm. But accuracy and decision making issues there.

 

But....There is a QB who I am intrigued by and he's flying under the radar. He's 6'3", has athleticism, a good arm, quick release and seems to read a defense, throw with anticipation, and is accurate. A 3 year starter, his passing efficiency is off the charts, in fact he set an FBS record for passing efficiency surpassing the record set by Mac Jones. 10 to 1 TD to INT ratio. He's a quick processor of the game. Can't believe he isn't getting more attention in sites and forums like this, but he's not in a power five conference and he runs more RPO than pro style offense. But he has the ability, man. He is also now out for the year with an injury. Hopefully that means teams don't catch on to how good he is and we can steal him late. I REALLY like his film. His mechanics are solid. I'm thinking he is going to be creeping up draft boards into at least round 2. Hesitant to even say his name because I want to keep the secret for our own benefit!. You all will figure it out.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Rolo Tomasie

[Rolo Tomasie]

In terms of tackles, I'm with commando that PJJ is the one who looks really good to me. Dude has good athleticism and plays like a bad mofo. Hoping he drops to our range. Not impressed with the PSU guy.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

 

But....There is a QB who I am intrigued by and he's flying under the radar. He's 6'3", has athleticism, a good arm, quick release and seems to read a defense, throw with anticipation, and is accurate. A 3 year starter, his passing efficiency is off the charts, in fact he set an FBS record for passing efficiency surpassing the record set by Mac Jones. 10 to 1 TD to INT ratio. He's a quick processor of the game. Can't believe he isn't getting more attention in sites and forums like this, but he's not in a power five conference and he runs more RPO than pro style offense. But he has the ability, man. He is also now out for the year with an injury. Hopefully that means teams don't catch on to how good he is and we can steal him late. I REALLY like his film. His mechanics are solid. I'm thinking he is going to be creeping up draft boards into at least round 2. Hesitant to even say his name because I want to keep the secret for our own benefit!. You all will figure it out.

 

 

If its McCall he had some hype last year, too as far as the draft, out right now for injury

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/35023813/nfl-draft-questions-risers-week-11-anderson-jr-2023-class-top-prospect-which-qbs-top-picks-2024

Miller: NFL scouts are excited about Shepherd quarterback Tyson Bagent, who will attend the 2023 Reese's Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama. Bagent is the reigning Harlon Hill Award winner as the top player at the FCS level, and the 6-foot-3, 215-pound senior passer is accurate with awesome timing and anticipation on underneath and crossing routes. But he doesn't bring much to the table as a runner. One scout I spoke with compared him to Bailey Zappe -- a player the Patriots selected in the fourth round of the 2022 draft. Bagent could be moving his way into a similar range.

 

 

The dude that is getting some attention that we don't talk about much here is Bo Nix who has had a resurgence out west. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Another with building hype, though two torn ACLs in his career already is intense

 

 

 

 

 

[Zim489]

3 hours ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

But....There is a QB who I am intrigued by and he's flying under the radar.

No. Just no. 

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

 

For TE scouting theres enough statistical backing to show that you should wait until combine numbers come out. No position matters more for physical traits. Last year for the top 10 TEs. 7 were above 9 8 above 8 and 9 above 7 in terms of RAS scores. This year is shaping up to be exactly the same. 

[HigSkin]

On 11/21/2022 at 5:56 AM, Est.1974 said:

I could see 2 of our first three picks being OL. Wouldn’t surprise me if Roullier got cut in the offseason. Maybe gets an offer to re work his deal first.

 

In desperate need of oline...

 

 

[Going Commando]

On 11/21/2022 at 6:14 AM, KDawg said:

To me it's clear that this is the pecking order:

 

QB > LT > CB > Edge

 

In general, or for us specifically given our current roster?

[Skinsinparadise]

55 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

No. Just no. 

For TE scouting theres enough statistical backing to show that you should wait until combine numbers come out. No position matters more for physical traits. Last year for the top 10 TEs. 7 were above 9 8 above 8 and 9 above 7 in terms of RAS scores. This year is shaping up to be exactly the same. 

 

We all have our different approaches. For me, I notice which prospects the draft media is touting. I watch them.  Then wait for the combine.  I probaby put more numbers including combine stuff on this thread than anyone else and they can be helpful but also are not the be all and end all.  All I can do is one step at a time.  If you want to ignore what you see or what is said about the TEs until the combine, cool. that's obviously up to you.

 

But to your point, sure combine numbers are interesting for some spots to complete the picture, especially O line.  As for TE, plenty of times their combine can turn me off ala Harrison Bryant.   Then again the combine of Isaiah Likely turned me off -- figured 4.8 speed for an F type TE doesn't feel good for that but he's been good so far.   Jordan Reed with a 3.76 RAS score, and ran a 4.72.  So numbers aren't everything

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

RT and interior are bigger needs than LT. Leno has been pretty solid on the left side. Rest of the OL needs work though. Perhaps we should move Cosmi to G.

[Skinsinparadise]

Listened to Brugler on a podcast today, he like most of the draft media was lukewarm about the tackle class before the year but is now high on the class.  Really high on Fashanu who I noticed McShay now has as his top tackle in this draft and high on Paris Johnson.  

[Zim489]

21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So numbers aren't everything

They arent everything for sure and obviously many other positions arent so athletically driven. Sometimes one barometer to match like OTs being good with sub 33" inch arms is substantially low. But for TEs theres guys you can see watching whos athletically gifted but youll need to see the testing. Outliers will always exist like Mark Andrews now but when its 9/10 guys on pretty much a year to year consistency? Yeah follow the numbers 

[KDawg]

44 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

In general, or for us specifically given our current roster?

Yes.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

They arent everything for sure and obviously many other positions arent so athletically driven. Sometimes one barometer to match like OTs being good with sub 33" inch arms is substantially low. But for TEs theres guys you can see watching whos athletically gifted but youll need to see the testing. Outliers will always exist like Mark Andrews now but when its 9/10 guys on pretty much a year to year consistency? Yeah follow the numbers 

 

I don't see TE as a strictly follow the numbers spot, but the numbers as its been discussed on the thread for years often helps find uncover mid round outlier types like a George Kittle.  Speed-agility especially for the bigger TEs can be an interesting tell if they have other things cooking.

 

I like looking at the combine numbers for every spot.  But I am not on hold waiting to watch or read about these guys until after the combine but the combine definitely is interesting.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Yes.

 

In general, I think a position value chart would go:

 

QB > Edge > OT > IDL > CB

Actually, I think I would go QB > Edge > IDL > OT > CB.

[Rufus T Firefly]

On 11/21/2022 at 6:05 AM, philibusters said:

 

There is enough dead money with Roullier I don't think we would cut him.  It basically comes out to 7.7 millions savings a 5.1 deadcap for a net savings of 2.6 million.  In over 1000 snaps in 2020 he had a PFF grade of 76.8 and in about 500 snaps last he had a 83.7 PFF grade.  So if he is healthy, you are getting top 5 or 6 Center play in the league.  I know he missed slightly over half of last year and all but a couple games this season, but a 2.6 million savings isn't worth not taking the upside bet next  year he stays healthy.  Its the following year where you are looking at big net savings (9.1 million) https://overthecap.com/player/chase-roullier/5785

You're reading this numbers wrong. He has a Cap number of 12.87 mil with a dead cap hit of 5.1 mil, for a net savings of 7.77

 

FYI.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Rufus T Firefly