2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

Duncan is so bad that I'm kind of shocked that he got dratnik buzz.  How does a baby**** soft OT with zero skill, whose gotten his ass absolutely dominated by the best opponents on his schedule project as a draftable NFL player?  Usually TDN and draftnik twitter aren't this off on prospects.

[Zim489]

Duncan has played the worst football I’ve seen for a draft prospect the last 3-4 games. Just absolutely woeful. Late round flyer at this poibt

19 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Duncan is so bad that I'm kind of shocked that he got dratnik buzz.  How does a baby**** soft OT with zero skill, whose gotten his ass absolutely dominated by the best opponents on his schedule project as a draftable NFL player?  Usually TDN and draftnik twitter aren't this off on prospects.

He held his own vs chase as a freshman. Then improved his sophomore year. Junior year was about the same and more consistent. He did really well against Hutchenson last year

 

This year has been an utter disaster. I know his daughter has been in the hospital. Maybe his mind isn’t in it. I don’t know 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Zim489

[Going Commando]

18 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

He held his own vs chase as a freshman. Then improved his sophomore year. Junior year was about the same and more consistent. He did really well against Hutchenson last year

 

This year has been an utter disaster. I know his daughter has been in the hospital. Maybe his mind isn’t in it. I don’t know 

 

It's gotta be something off the field, or else he's playing with some kind of injury.  The will to compete isn't even there.  I don't want to kill the kid any more because he might be going through something and there is just no need to criticize him beyond saying that I wouldn't draft him because of his poor film from this part of his senior season.

 

Something about Broderick Jones has me off-put too.  I saw a similar lack of engagement in him today, too many lazy reps where he was spectating.

 

I still need to watch like 10 different day 1/day 2 OL prospects, but so far the only one I have really liked is Paris Johnson Jr.

[DazedSkinsfan]

Interesting game going on down in South Carolina right now.  Hooker is intriguing but something tells me that in a few years Levis might be the best QB in this class.  Gotta remember he's been playing with a injured toe and shoulder most of the year.  Will be Interesting to see how things fall in the draft.

[xxprodigyxx]

43 minutes ago, DazedSkinsfan said:

Interesting game going on down in South Carolina right now.  Hooker is intriguing but something tells me that in a few years Levis might be the best QB in this class.  Gotta remember he's been playing with a injured toe and shoulder most of the year.  Will be Interesting to see how things fall in the draft.

as of now i think i'll have to pick will levis over hendon hooker because of his name. although, if we get will levis and run into a kirk cousins type contract situation i get the feeling the name "will leaveus" will catch on...but i think that's a plus. wtf is a hendon?

Edited November 20, 2022 by xxprodigyxx

[philibusters]

Jaelyn Duncan's career arch as a four year starter
 

Freshman year: Garbage

 

Sophomore year:  Solid to Good

 

Junior year:  Good

 

Senior year: Garbage to serviceable 

 

That is using roughly a garbage-serviceable-solid-good-great (5 level scale).  He did miss a game because of his 1 year daughters illness.   He is playing like his heart is not in it and football is a physical game where you need to have your heart in it.  At the start this year, he likely would have been a first or second round, now I feel like he'll be lucky to get drafted.  That said, without knowing the full story its hard to say.  I saw Brandon Scherff play with an injury against Maryland his last year in college and given up two sacks to a 5'11 265 pound Defensive End named Andre Monroe.  I knew he Scherff was injured because they mentioned it during the game, but based solely off that game, I thought Scherff had bust potential.  But that was one game, whereas this is an entire down season for Duncan.

[Going Commando]

Yeah Scherff got knee surgery early in his senior season for something like a torn MCL and was back in practice like three days later or something crazy like that.  Went on to win the Outland that year.  He looked rough initially, but that crazy ass drive to play through injuries and pain was a selling point for me on him pre-draft. 

 

He actually had a couple of dicey games of Pass Pro film as I remember watching a Matt Waldman breakdown of his (I think it was his Michigan State reps) where they saw a lot of messy reps where he was basically bailing water right off the snap and forcing his QB to adjust to left side pressure.  But I also remember Lance Zierlein pointing out how difficult his run game blocks were, and I came away impressed with his range and run blocking ability.  That dominance was his calling card, and that basically traveled with him to the NFL.

 

The problem with Duncan to me is the lack of toughness and competitiveness are really apparent.  Scherff would get beat but not give up on the rep. He'd stay engaged and find a way to ride the pass rush wide with hook or crook blocks.  And he would legitimately road grade in the run game.  Duncan gets beat and gives up on the rep--just puts his hands down and stops moving and the backside DE tees off on Tagavailoa.  And he is pretty bad in the run game and makes zero impact as a climber, he doesn't find anyone to block on most of those calls and he never went looking for work.  College is the time for NFL track OLs to throw their weight around and dominate run defenders.  Cosmi and Teven Jenkins were head busters in college.  The guy the Saints drafted was ridiculous to the point of constantly starting fights, and he wasn't always able to cash those checks he was writing.  But you would rather see that level of engagement and aggression than passivity.  I saw that from PJJr yesterday and in the Notre Dame game.  The dude is trying to take people to the ground on every play that he can, even basic pass pro reps.  I want that kind of motor and commitment to the physicality of trench football from a first round OT prospect.  A first round OT is eventually going to be a locker room leader for me, plus we need to get someone who is either good enough to upgrade Cosmi and kick him inside, or best of all, take over the LT job once Leno declines.

[philibusters]

I ended up watching some of that Maryland Iowa 2014 game on Youtube this morning.  They were a half dozen  future NFL starters between the two teams.   On Iowa you have George Kittle, Brandon Scherff, Austin Blythe, and Desmond King, all NFL starters in 2022 along with a couple NFL backups like Jaleel Johnson.   On Maryland you have Stefon Diggs and Yannick Ngakoue, two NFL starters in 2022 plus a couple backups like Quinton Jefferson.

[Zim489]

I know he’s not 23 but please for the love of god tank next year 

 

 

 

I mean just wow. Imo 3rd best QB prospect since and including the luck class 

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, Zim489 said:

I know he’s not 23 but please for the love of god tank next year 

 

I mean just wow. Imo 3rd best QB prospect since and including the luck class 

 

I think Drake May may end being a better prospect than the top  QB prospect this year so the 24 class has two solid guys.  Different styles too.

 

I haven't soured on this year's class, but am not that excited about it.  I think there are some intriguing guys, but Byrce Young is the only guy I really have confidence in.  Stroud, Levis, and Hooker (lets see what his injury is) are all guys I like but don't have a ton of confidence in.  I have watched the Stanford QB much.

[Zim489]

 

Sucks for him but hes now off the board. 

[Ball Security]

41 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

 

Sucks for him but hes now off the board. 

Where would it make sense for a team to take him?  You basically only have him for three years assuming no one takes him in the first.

[Warhead36]

I'm not taking a guy who's gonna be 26 and coming off an ACL.

 

Tough luck for the guy though.

[FLSkinz83]

I wouldn't draft any of these QB's with the exception of Young.   I'd rather develop Howell.

[Zim489]

Stroud I would if Im drafting top 5. Not trading up for him. Hard pass on Levis. If Richardson comes out and really shines in the process that could change things 

[mhd24]

I’d rather develop Howell.  Concentrate on the o line (aside from potentially taking a CB in round 1)

[Zim489]

25 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

I’d rather develop Howell.  Concentrate on the o line (aside from potentially taking a CB in round 1)

The odds of him doing anything is so low. Having said that he would be a good tank commander if they decide to go the blow it up route if a new staff is in place. They need to go hard in one way or the other. This is their group. Trade the farm for Lamar or trade up for stroud/young. Or blow the team up to start the tank. They cant keep sitting in the middle 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Zim489

[KDawg]

It’s Bryce Young or bust for me right now. 

[method man]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not taking a guy who's gonna be 26 and coming off an ACL.

 

Tough luck for the guy though.

He’ll be a good draft and stash for some team

[Hooper]

10 hours ago, Zim489 said:

I know he’s not 23 but please for the love of god tank next year 

 

 

 

I mean just wow. Imo 3rd best QB prospect since and including the luck class 

Gonzaga High School. 

Would be number one pick this year if eligible.

An absolute freak. Next Mahomes.

[The Rook]

8 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

I think Drake May may end being a better prospect than the top  QB prospect this year so the 24 class has two solid guys.  Different styles too.

 

 

Completely with you on Drake Maye.  His numbers are gaudy, in a good way.

 

But 2024 is a loooong way aways.  I hope for the best for him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook 

[Going Commando]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not taking a guy who's gonna be 26 and coming off an ACL.

 

Tough luck for the guy though.

 

Yeah that ****ing sucks for Hooker, who was in the midst of a magical season was rising his draft stock.  But a team would have to be crazy to draft him early coming off a November ACL tear when he was already older.

 

But for our purposes, he's actually more interesting to me now as like a day three lottery ticket that we can stash on IR next year.  We need QBs further along in their development process because this defense is in like the first year of a three year window of being championship quality.  He'd be an insurance policy for 2024 in case Howell bombs next season.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, mhd24 said:

I’d rather develop Howell.  Concentrate on the o line (aside from potentially taking a CB in round 1)

 

I would go BPA even acknowledging that there is a decent chance it's a receiver or pass rusher type.  There seems to be a lot of quality at those two positions currently ranked in the teens, and if we pick in the 20s, then a teens faller is your likely BPA value pick.

 

Our roster is pretty complete and I think we have the luxury of hunting value.  But I would be rooting specifically for someone like Mayer or Paris Johnson Jr or Kelee Ringo to be the blue chip faller as opposed to someone like Quentin Johnson or Jaxson Smith-Ngijba.

 

This might be a trade down year though.  I think there could be a lot of value trading out of the first and either getting a future first or an extra second.  Three second round picks could get us a rookie starter corner and a rookie starter OL.

 

If we do go QB in the first round though, then I put my reservations about Rivera and Scott Turner aside and start rooting for them to get extensions, because our whole goal becomes developing that kid and stability in the FO and coaching staff is the only way that has a chance to happen.

 

Part of me thinks the FO might trade up for Levis.  If they do... then we've gotta grit our teeth and go all in with the move.  Extensions for everybody.  I think this staff likes Howell too much to pull that move.  But it is the Buffalo-style choice that this staff has been trying to copy.

[Zim489]

A complete shudder for a Levis trade up along with extensions for this bad staff that not many are confidant in building anything of note 

[Peregrine]

At this point, with the D playing like it is, you have to be focusing on just 3 spots.  QB, Oline(really, its mostly Oline), and LB.  Get a good LB, draft some good DLine, and then get the best QB available.

 

Or do what some people suggest, and "develop" Howell next season to set up the team to get a top 3 Draft pick in 2024 and a top QB.