2024 Baltimore Orioles: New Owner, New Hope

[TheDoyler23]

38 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Do you have a citation for that?  I’d be interested in diving more into the subject.

 

Fangraphs did a dive nd some of it is peculation. But I mentioed two teams with published TV deals: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/

[DCSaints_fan]

43 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Do you have a citation for that?  I’d be interested in diving more into the subject.

I did a double take on that, but it seems roughly correct 

 

Dodgers TV revenue was $239 million last year

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=florida+marlins+tv+revenue&oq=florida+marlins+tv+revenue&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i160l3.4657j1j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

FOX paid the Marlins $270 million over 15 years  ($18M per year).   Set to increase to maybe $40 million per year when the new deal is negotiated.

 

https://www.fishstripes.com/22203402/marlins-bally-sports-florida-television-contract-news-details

Edited May 2, 2022 by DCSaints_fan

[capcrunch98]

9 hours ago, abdcskins said:

The thing that is frustrating about baseball is that there is little to no parity.  I mean, going into every season for the past say decade, we as Orioles fans are pretty much resigned to the fact that we are not winning the World Series.  We just aren't.  We aren't even sniffing the playoffs.  Same could be said for the Tigers, Reds, etc.  These teams know they have no shot.

 

I feel like with other sports there is more of a chance for a miracle.  Like I doubt any Jets fan is going into this season expecting a Lombardi trophy, but if Zach Wilson makes major strides and some of their new acquisitions contribute, hey there is a small chance.  Same could be said for our dear Commanders (yeah right).  Look what the Bengals did this past season.  I don't feel like that exists in baseball.  Some of this is due to the stupidly long season, but mostly due to the there being no salary cap and small market teams not being able to compete financially or on the field.  I mean, when is the last time a longshot won the World Series?  Maybe the Royals in 2015?  I don't know what their preseason odds were, or their salaries.  I know the Braves were unlikely winners last year, but what was their payroll?  I'd be interested to see the payrolls of the last 20 or so World Series winners.  We all know the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, etc. spend an absurd amount of money.

 

Basically what I am saying is that it sucks to be an Orioles fan 😩

 

Yes, for all the flack baseball gets about being a slow, boring sport that doesn't appeal to today's youth, the ridiculous disparity between the haves and the have-nots is just as much to blame for declining interest, IMO.  You bring up the Royals, and that is exactly the blueprint that small market teams have to follow.  They were a great club in 2015 (also make the Series the year before) and it wasn't a surprise to most that they won it that year.  But they had to go through a painful decade-long rebuild to get there - acquiring top draft picks, developing them and hoping they pan out, selling high to contenders on the few good players they did have while the rebuild was still ongoing, and then enjoying a 4 - 5 year window before their homegrown talent leaves for greener pa$tures.  The Orioles had to do the same thing to get to the point from 2012 - 2016 where they were competitive, and it's been back to sucking ever since.  Really hard to keep fans (and recruit new ones) when you have to be terrible for 5 years for every 2 good years of being competitive.

[Hersh]

23 minutes ago, capcrunch98 said:

 

Yes, for all the flack baseball gets about being a slow, boring sport that doesn't appeal to today's youth, the ridiculous disparity between the haves and the have-nots is just as much to blame for declining interest, IMO.  You bring up the Royals, and that is exactly the blueprint that small market teams have to follow.  They were a great club in 2015 (also make the Series the year before) and it wasn't a surprise to most that they won it that year.  But they had to go through a painful decade-long rebuild to get there - acquiring top draft picks, developing them and hoping they pan out, selling high to contenders on the few good players they did have while the rebuild was still ongoing, and then enjoying a 4 - 5 year window before their homegrown talent leaves for greener pa$tures.  The Orioles had to do the same thing to get to the point from 2012 - 2016 where they were competitive, and it's been back to sucking ever since.  Really hard to keep fans (and recruit new ones) when you have to be terrible for 5 years for every 2 good years of being competitive.

 

100% agree with this. The problem is that owners and players really don't care as long as the tv money is good. It's crazy to me the O's are still tanking this season. And by that, I mean the front office not spending anything to upgrade the team. There is no chance I'm even giving my son the option to like the O's if he expresses any interest in baseball. At this point in my baseball fandom, I only watch a little of the playoffs and that's it. 

[Bang]

14 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

A team on pace to win 58 games is a legit reason to keep interest?

The pitching has been outstanding. They are rarely giving up many runs.
The biggest thing right now is hitting with runners on..  If they can start to do that with regularity, this pitching staff keeping scores down, we may be on pace for 70-75, get beyond that hundred-loss hump.
Given the last several years, I'm alright with what I'm seeing at this point.

Usually by May 1 there was no reason at all to keep watching, they not only were going to lose, they were going to get blown out most nights, never have a chance. 

But it pitching stays strong.. the barometer may start to rise. Still a work in progress, but i think "in progress" was not something we could have said until recently.

 

~Bang

[fullnelson9999]

1 hour ago, Hersh said:

It's crazy to me the O's are still tanking this season.

They've been transparent about the process almost the entire time, and literally lost a season of minor league baseball due to covid.  That'll put your rebuild on hold!  They now have an international scouting department and an analytics department.  They tried to sign Correa because it's finally that time in the rebuild cycle to try to supplement these players with proven free agents.  TBH, I don't know what else we could ask for.

Edited May 2, 2022 by fullnelson9999

[justice98]

52 minutes ago, fullnelson9999 said:

They've been transparent about the process almost the entire time, and literally lost a season of minor league baseball due to covid.  That'll put your rebuild on hold!  They now have an international scouting department and an analytics department.  They tried to sign Correa because it's finally that time in the rebuild cycle to try to supplement these players with proven free agents.  TBH, I don't know what else we could ask for.

 

That always seemed weird to me.  I get why Elias would wanna do it, but why on God's green earth would Correa have even entertained that?  

[Hersh]

1 hour ago, fullnelson9999 said:

They've been transparent about the process almost the entire time, and literally lost a season of minor league baseball due to covid.  That'll put your rebuild on hold!  They now have an international scouting department and an analytics department.  They tried to sign Correa because it's finally that time in the rebuild cycle to try to supplement these players with proven free agents.  TBH, I don't know what else we could ask for.

 

Being transparent about something doesn't make it right. There is zero reason not to have spent more money this last off-season. So they might have tried with one player at one position but didn't think they needed anything else at other positions?

[fullnelson9999]

9 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

Being transparent about something doesn't make it right. There is zero reason not to have spent more money this last off-season. So they might have tried with one player at one position but didn't think they needed anything else at other positions?

 

You want them to overspend at positions that they already feel they have covered?  So they can finish with 70 wins instead of 60, and still miss the playoffs?  Which players did you think they should go after?  Who was going to want to come to Baltimore?

 

It's all easier said than done.

Edited May 2, 2022 by fullnelson9999

[Hersh]

Just now, fullnelson9999 said:

 

You want them to overspend at positions that they already feel they have covered?  So they can finish with 75 wins instead of 60, and still miss the playoffs?  Which players did you think they should go after?  Who was going to want to come to Baltimore?

 

It's all easier said than done.

 

How many positions should they feel are covered? Catcher and DH? If Mancini goes at the trade deadline or isn't re-signed, the entire infield could be replaced. There are also no sure bets in the OF, plus a couple of SP spots. 

 

Yes, you go from 60 to 70+ to contending. It's incredibly rare that teams go from 60 to 90+ wins and in the playoffs. Your line of thinking on spending is just like when someone people argue about whether a player is really ready for MLB or if they need more time. There is no certainty that a player or team is going to succeed in some orderly fashion. So you ramp up spending and get a player that will be here for 3 years. It's a process. Same as any sport. Suck, start to get better, maybe contend for playoffs or make it. Then win a round or two and finally contend. 

[fullnelson9999]

16 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

How many positions should they feel are covered? Catcher and DH? If Mancini goes at the trade deadline or isn't re-signed, the entire infield could be replaced. There are also no sure bets in the OF, plus a couple of SP spots. 

 

Yes, you go from 60 to 70+ to contending. It's incredibly rare that teams go from 60 to 90+ wins and in the playoffs. Your line of thinking on spending is just like when someone people argue about whether a player is really ready for MLB or if they need more time. There is no certainty that a player or team is going to succeed in some orderly fashion. So you ramp up spending and get a player that will be here for 3 years. It's a process. Same as any sport. Suck, start to get better, maybe contend for playoffs or make it. Then win a round or two and finally contend. 

 

The positions in question are covered by players in the minors.  Rutschman, Henderson, Cowser, Kjerstad, Hall, Mayo, etc.   Those cover your infield, outfield, and pitching for the next 5 plus years, and are all a part of the long term plan.  It's what this rebuild has been all about.  Correa was that player that mayyyyybe you move things around for, but short of a generational talent like him, it wasn't worth bringing in anyone else of note.

 

You're not going to sign any decent free agents when they know they aren't going to be a part of the long term plan, especially when they have options elsewhere on actual contending teams.  Take a look at the lists of free agents, and look where they signed.

1 hour ago, justice98 said:

 

That always seemed weird to me.  I get why Elias would wanna do it, but why on God's green earth would Correa have even entertained that?  

Because they are going to turn the corner in a couple of years, and they were offering lots and lots of money.

Edited May 2, 2022 by fullnelson9999

[DCSaints_fan]

1 hour ago, justice98 said:

 

That always seemed weird to me.  I get why Elias would wanna do it, but why on God's green earth would Correa have even entertained that?  

Because it was the highest total offer?  

 

But it looks like he wanted higher than that and will likely opt out if this a good year in Minny

[TheDoyler23]

 

 

Unless getting a top guy at their position, most free agents don't make the team much better.. Those dollars aren't recouped at the gate for a team in a deep rebuild like the Orioles..

 

It's a lose-lose concept when the economics of baseball are so broken and diverts money away from the draft, international free agents, development and scouting. 

 

Let Elias and co build their machine and not attack the components just yet. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hersh]

1 hour ago, TheDoyler23 said:

 

 

Unless getting a top guy at their position, most free agents don't make the team much better.. Those dollars aren't recouped at the gate for a team in a deep rebuild like the Orioles..

 

It's a lose-lose concept when the economics of baseball are so broken and diverts money away from the draft, international free agents, development and scouting. 

 

Let Elias and co build their machine and not attack the components just yet. 

 

 

 

The payroll could be $50 million higher and it would have no impact on anything you mentioned.

[Hersh]

2 hours ago, fullnelson9999 said:

 

The positions in question are covered by players in the minors.  Rutschman, Henderson, Cowser, Kjerstad, Hall, Mayo, etc.   Those cover your infield, outfield, and pitching for the next 5 plus years, and are all a part of the long term plan.  It's what this rebuild has been all about.  Correa was that player that mayyyyybe you move things around for, but short of a generational talent like him, it wasn't worth bringing in anyone else of note.

 

You're not going to sign any decent free agents when they know they aren't going to be a part of the long term plan, especially when they have options elsewhere on actual contending teams.  Take a look at the lists of free agents, and look where they signed.

 

 

Oh, so this will be a team entirely composed of homegrown players. Got it. I'm sure that will be the case even though no other team operates successfully like that.

 

Cowser is batting .250 at high A. He's two years away at best.

 

Kjerstad hasn't played in the minors yet.

 

Gunner is two year away but at least he's only 20. 

 

Mayo is in high A ball, so three years away? 

 

I'm excited for O's fans to wait 2-3 before those guys and finally it will be time to spend and compete. Ya know, if they all work out. 

[Ball Security]

3 hours ago, fullnelson9999 said:

 

The positions in question are covered by players in the minors.  Rutschman, Henderson, Cowser, Kjerstad, Hall, Mayo, etc.   Those cover your infield, outfield, and pitching for the next 5 plus years, and are all a part of the long term plan.  It's what this rebuild has been all about.  Correa was that player that mayyyyybe you move things around for, but short of a generational talent like him, it wasn't worth bringing in anyone else of note.

 

You're not going to sign any decent free agents when they know they aren't going to be a part of the long term plan, especially when they have options elsewhere on actual contending teams.  Take a look at the lists of free agents, and look where they signed.

Because they are going to turn the corner in a couple of years, and they were offering lots and lots of money.

I dunno.  Cowser has a lot of swing and miss in his bat right now and looks lost.  Kjerstad hasn’t played a professional game.  Plenty of top 10 picks don’t make it.   The signs from them don’t look…great.

[TheDoyler23]

42 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

The payroll could be $50 million higher and it would have no impact on anything you mentioned.

50 million dollars in free agency probably buys 6-7 wins. That’s assuming they make good choices and don’t end up with dead money on the IL. 

 

[Hersh]

19 minutes ago, TheDoyler23 said:

50 million dollars in free agency probably buys 6-7 wins. That’s assuming they make good choices and don’t end up with dead money on the IL. 

 

That makes zero sense and you know it. 

[DCSaints_fan]

7 minutes ago, Hersh said:

That makes zero sense and you know it. 

If you buy into WAR it makes sense.  Last I heard for teams were willing to pay FAs about somewhere between $7-8 million / WAR, and it was fairly linear.  So 50/7-8 is between 6-7 wins.

Edited May 3, 2022 by DCSaints_fan

[Hersh]

Just now, DCSaints_fan said:

If you buy into WAR it makes sense.  Last I heard for teams were willing to pay FAs about somewhere between $7-8 million / WAR, and it was fairly linear.  So 50/7-8 is a little roughly 6-7 wins.

how many Oriole players are even replacement level players?

[Hersh]

Okay, so I checked the box score since I was in here. Is there a good reason the O’s took their starter out after 5 innings and 62 pitches?

[DCSaints_fan]

20 minutes ago, Hersh said:

how many Oriole players are even replacement level players?

If you go by fWAR last year the position players which were between -0.5 and 0.5 were (min 180 PAs)

 

Player G  PA  fWAR

Stewart 100 318  0.3

McKenna  90 197  0.1

Santander 110 438 0.1

Severino 113 419 -0.1

 

Had Mateo and Ruiz played enough, they probably would be on this list as well.

 

For pitchers, basically every starter except Means, Zimmerman and (surprisingly) Harvey was below 0.5 fWAR, but not less than -0.3.  Similar story with relievers everyone +/- 0.5, with the exception of Sulser, Wells and Fry had > 0.5, and Plutko put up a -1.0 fWAR.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/orioles/stats?season=2021

[TheDoyler23]

16 minutes ago, Hersh said:

Okay, so I checked the box score since I was in here. Is there a good reason the O’s took their starter out after 5 innings and 62 pitches?

Wells was a reliever last year and they are limiting his innings this year, especially since he didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the cancelled minor league season. 

[fullnelson9999]

5 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

Oh, so this will be a team entirely composed of homegrown players. Got it. I'm sure that will be the case even though no other team operates successfully like that.

 

Cowser is batting .250 at high A. He's two years away at best.

 

Kjerstad hasn't played in the minors yet.

 

Gunner is two year away but at least he's only 20. 

 

Mayo is in high A ball, so three years away? 

 

I'm excited for O's fans to wait 2-3 before those guys and finally it will be time to spend and compete. Ya know, if they all work out. 

 

The Astros literally just did that. The Astros also have an amazingly successful international scouting department, just like the O's are trying to build.   And who did Elias use to work for???

 

And every player I mentioned is expected to be with the team in the next two years.  You also conveniently left out Adley and Grayson, who will be difference makers if all goes as planned.  https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles

 

Nobody said it has to be a team comprised entirely of homegrown players.  Don't put words in my mouth.  There's a place for free agency, and even a big signing.  But don't blame the Orioles for being wary of tying up money in players that have no long term future with the team so that your ego can be stroked with a few more wins. 

 

They're not tanking anymore.  They've moved to the evaluation stage.

Edited May 3, 2022 by fullnelson9999

[Hersh]

32 minutes ago, fullnelson9999 said:

 

The Astros literally just did that. The Astros also have an amazingly successful international scouting department, just like the O's are trying to build.   And who did Elias use to work for???

 

And every player I mentioned is expected to be with the team in the next two years.  You also conveniently left out Adley and Grayson, who will be difference makers if all goes as planned.  https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles

 

Nobody said it has to be a team comprised entirely of homegrown players.  Don't put words in my mouth.  There's a place for free agency, and even a big signing.  But don't blame the Orioles for being wary of tying up money in players that have no long term future with the team so that your ego can be stroked with a few more wins. 

 

They're not tanking anymore.  They've moved to the evaluation stage.

 

You literally said "The positions in question are covered by players in the minors." Those are your words. 

 

Astros history: 2013-2017 in wins: 51, 70, 86, 84, 101. (Let's also not forget the Astros won a WS by cheating.)

Astros spending on opening day 2013-2017 in Millions: 29, 50, 72, 96, 127. 

 

It's weird, they didn't go from 60 to 90 and contending in one season. Also weird, they gradually increased spending. 

 

Also, "But don't blame the Orioles for being wary of tying up money in players that have no long term future with the team so that your ego can be stroked with a few more wins." Who said tie up money in players that have no long term future with the team? Oh, that's right. No free agent would have a long term future here cause all the positions in questioned are covered in the minors.