2021 Playoff Tracker Thread

[kleese]

Did a quick scroll through main page, if this thread already exists and I missed it, please feel free to nix it. I do this pretty much every year with the exception of a season like 2019, where you couldn’t squint hard enough to see any playoff possibilities. 
 

Important to remember, this thread exists only to chat about/clear up the ACTUAL mathematical possibilities surrounding the WFT and the playoffs. Can check reality at the door— thread lives until the math kills us. 
 

I assume everyone knows this by now, but the expanded playoffs have added a WC team to each conference. So your division winners seeded 1-4, with top seed only team getting a bye. Then your WC teams seeded 5-7. 7 plays at 2, 6 at 3, and 5 at 4. There will be two games Sat, a Sunday triple header, and one game on Monday Night. 
 

It would be ridiculous and virtually impossible with 6 weeks left to sift through ALL of our scenarios in the traffic jam of the NFC standings right now. But at 5-6 currently, we WOULD be in as the 7 seed, playing at Lambeau in the Wild Card round. 
 

How do we stay there? 
 

Well, that’s complicated, but the short answer would be “keep winning.” 
 

This is NOT a fact, but I believe if we were to finish 4-2 and end at 9-8 we would be close to a lock for the playoffs. I’d be stunned if that didn’t get us in. At 3-3 and 8-9 is where it gets dicey. Playing around with it, my guess is that we’d be out in that scenario, but we could still make it at 8-9 without needed a ton of shenanigans. A lot would depend on who we beat to get the 3 wins. Shenanigans would be needed to get it at 7-10 (finishing 2-4). There are ways, but it gets out of control at that point figuring it out. 
 

So, we know this. If we finish:

 

6-0: We win the East 

5-1: Good chance to win East, playoff lock 

4-2: Unlikely to win East, should be in playoffs 

3-3: Probably a 50/50 playoff scenario 

2-4: Very slim odds

1-5: Toast 

0-6: Burnt Toast 

 

One thing to keep in mind is that currently we are in excellent shape when it comes to tie-breakers. We lose a direct head to head tie-breaker with the Saints. Other than that, we would win almost any other tie-breaker, including multi team tie-breakers because our conference record is 5-2. We have piled up most of our losses against our AFC opponents, which helps in this regard. Obviously our last five games are all NFC games so this could change quickly. 
 

As far as rooting interests go, well in some

ways it’s pretty clear and in other ways, it gets complicated. If you still feel good about the diction, well, then root against Dallas. Duh. Less concerned with Eagles considering we are currently ahead of them AND we play them twice. 

Literally every team in the NFC is within one game of a playoff spot other than the Lions and Seahawks. We also now have the tie-breaker with Seahawks. So moving forward, the Lions and Seahawks are our friends. Root for those teams whenever they play another NFC contender. And of course, always root for an AFC team when head to head with and NFC team. 
 

I also think we can cross the Bucs, Packers and Cardinals off the list. We aren’t catching any of them and are likely division winners. So I’d say the Packers and Cardinals are also our friends. 
 

Personally, I still see the Rams as an unrealistic team to catch. Especially considering they get the Jags this week. I suppose you might as well root for Jax, but for now I’m saying the second place NFC West team gets a WC for sure. 
 

That leaves two spots for the rest of the fray. 
 

I think our two biggest enemies here at the 49ers and Vikings. Next would be Saints, due in large part to them owning that tie-breaker with us. Then you have the Falcons, Panthers, Giants, and Bears. Owning the tie-breaker with the Falcons and Panthers and being 1-0 against Giants really helps there. Those are teams in the mix that we can root against in obvious situations but might need assistance from in other situations. 
 

I really think right now, pouring energy into being anti-Vikings/49ers is your best bet. 
 

So what’s on tap this week… 

 

Well, root for us in Vegas of course. All games are big at this point, but if the goal is 4-2, then you’d want this one to be one of the two. Of our remaining 6 games, this would be the least damaging loss. 
 

Cowboys at Saints: I can see this one either way. To me, the “safer” bet is to root for Dallas and further bury the Saints. NOLA is the one team in this mix that can really mess this up for us. Considering we play Dallas twice, they can win Thursday night and we still control our destiny with them. The bright side to NOLA winning of course is that it opens up the East possibilities even more. I’ll be conservative here and hope Dallas wins— I’d also prefer to

catch them off a win as opposed to a third straight loss. Also Saints schedule after this is fairly soft. They get this one, I think 9 wins for sure in play for them. 
 

Bucs at Falcons: Go Bucs… I guess? It’s possible having Atlanta involved in multi team tie-breakers would help us down the road, but that’s kind of wild to speculate on now. For now, simplest thing to do is root against other teams in the mix. 
 

Cardinals at Bears: Not sweating this one, but might as well root Arizona. Makes it easier to root for Bears later when we might need them. 
 

Vikings at Lions: Easy.. here’s to 1-10-1! 
 

Giants at Dolphins: Not too worried here either, but Giants could tie us if they win and we lose so pull for Miami. 
 

Eagles at Jets: J-E-T, oh probably save your breath here, but you know what I mean. 
 

Jags at Rams: Massive stretch, but Jags win can’t hurt. 
 

49ers at Seahawks: Biggest one on the list other than our game. Niners have a few easy games remaining after this— and this one isn’t looking too tough these days either. Just need to hope Seahawks continue to at least try and maybe they finally get something figured out on offense. If I had a magic wand for any game this week, this would be the one I’d control in favor of Seattle. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

Awesome kleese, thank you! It's on.

[Warhead36]

At the very least, this sure as heck beats watching Malik Willis and Matt Corral highlight videos on Youtube.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

I’m gonna go find some wood.

[zCommander]

A poster asked me to do this thread. i said hell no. I don't do all the tie breaker this and tie breaker that stuff... it is over my head..lol

Thank you for doing this thread again and breaking it down for us simple people!

 

[madden lot]

Should we hope the hated cowboys beat the saints? If they win they move in the 7 spot rite? 

[zCommander]

31 minutes ago, madden lot said:

Should we hope the hated cowboys beat the saints? If they win they move in the 7 spot rite? 

 

We have a 5-2 conf record and the Saints have a 4-4. We want Saints to lose because they beat us and will have the tie-breaker over us if us and them end up with same record at the end of the season. So we are rooting for Saints to lose here. Bury them further down. We plays the boys twice and can take care of them if we end up winning both of those games. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

6 hours ago, zskins said:

 

We have a 5-2 conf record and the Saints have a 4-4. We want Saints to lose because they beat us and will have the tie-breaker over us if us and them end up with same record at the end of the season. So we are rooting for Saints to lose here. Bury them further down. We plays the boys twice and can take care of them if we end up winning both of those games. 

 

We should be rooting for the Saints to win...the division title should be the immediate goal, not a wild card spot.

 

The Saints winning helps in that regard. If Dallas loses tomorrow and Washington wins Sunday, then once again all bets are off. The two teams play each other the next weekend and WFT could be in first place in the NFC East after that game with 4 games left--all divisional matchups. That's the scenario we should be hoping for. Plus it makes Dallas' conference record worse. They lose to the Saints and then lose to us, they'll have a worse conference record and a worse division record.

Edited December 1, 2021 by Califan007

[Koolblue13]

7 hours ago, zskins said:

A poster asked me to do this thread. i said hell no. I don't do all the tie breaker this and tie breaker that stuff... it is over my head..lol

Thank you for doing this thread again and breaking it down for us simple people!

 

Thats why I didn't do it myself.

[kleese]

6 hours ago, Califan007 said:

 

We should be rooting for the Saints to win...the division title should be the immediate goal, not a wild card spot.

 

The Saints winning helps in that regard. If Dallas loses tomorrow and Washington wins Sunday, then once again all bets are off. The two teams play each other the next weekend and WFT could be in first place in the NFC East after that game with 4 games left--all divisional matchups. That's the scenario we should be hoping for. Plus it makes Dallas' conference record worse. They lose to the Saints and then lose to us, they'll have a worse conference record and a worse division record.

I am taking a more conservative approach. We haven’t made the playoffs in back to back seasons since 1991-92. I really want us to do it again. Of course, the division is preferable but with a two game deficit with only 6 to go, I don’t view it as super realistic— even though we do control our destiny there. Not sure I see Dallas TOTALLY collapsing. And if they lose Thursday, that is on the table. They would come to DC in total desperation mode— not sure I like that either. And then we’d likely have to beat them twice in three weeks. I just don’t love those odds. So I’d prefer Dallas take care of NOLA this week— then if we sweep Dallas we can still win the division. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

3 hours ago, kleese said:

I am taking a more conservative approach. We haven’t made the playoffs in back to back seasons since 1991-92. I really want us to do it again. Of course, the division is preferable but with a two game deficit with only 6 to go, I don’t view it as super realistic— even though we do control our destiny there. Not sure I see Dallas TOTALLY collapsing. And if they lose Thursday, that is on the table. They would come to DC in total desperation mode— not sure I like that either. And then we’d likely have to beat them twice in three weeks. I just don’t love those odds. So I’d prefer Dallas take care of NOLA this week— then if we sweep Dallas we can still win the division. 

 

1) Let the Saints lose some other game (or games) the rest of the way...You know they will. But let them beat the Cowboys now.

2) Dallas doesn't have to TOTALLY collapse...they don't have to collapse at all. But if they do, they've already been collapsing over the last 4 games.

3) If they lose to the Saints and we beat the Raiders (who just beat them), they will be desparate but also will be under a ****load of pressure...no faith whatsoever that Dallas has the character, culture, stones, or coaching to take on that pressure and stress and play their best. Over the last 20 years the Cowboys have only bounced back and started playing well on the back end of the season once when they desperately needed to. Skins/WFT have done it numerous times:

 

2005: Skins were 5-6, then won out (5-0) and made the playoffs (ironically kept the Cowboys out of the playoffs by doing so).
2007: Skins were 5-7, then won out (4-0) and made the playoffs.
2012: Skins were 3-6, then won out (7-0) and won the division (ironically kept the Cowboys out of the playoffs by doing so).
2015: Skins were 4-6, then went 5-1 and won the division (ironically the one loss was to the Cowboys' injury-ravaged team).
2020: Ski--er, the WFT was 2-7, then went 5-2 and won the division.
2021: WFT was 2-6, then have gone 3-0 since then.....
 

4) At best, I think this is a win-win situation concerning the playoffs. No matter who wins it helps our playoff chances--as long as Washington wins.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Califan007

[Spearfeather]

44 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

At best, I think this is a win-win situation concerning the playoffs. No matter who wins it helps our playoff chances--as long as Washington wins.

 

This is how I'm looking at it also.

Saints loss helps us in our quest for a wild card.

cowboys* loss helps us in our quest for the division.

 

* Don't ever spell cowboys with a capital " c ".

 

Ever.

[Koolblue13]

[HigSkin]

😂

 

 

[ColonialWBSkinsFan]

I'm ecstatic that there is even a legitimate reason to have this thread considering where things stood just 17 days ago...

[Die Hard]

On 11/30/2021 at 11:06 PM, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I’m gonna go find some wood.

 

[kleese]

Cowboys beat Saints, which is a fine outcome in my eyes. I don’t view the division as a realistic goal— I think it will take us sweeping Dallas for sure which I don’t view as likely; and really, if we DO sweep them then having them win in NOLA honestly doesn’t hurt much anyway. 
 

So I’m glad to see the Saints take another L as they are the one team in the WC mix that could really hurt us in a tie-breaker situation. Next up for NOLA is Jets and the only team with a winning record they play over the final four weeks is Tampa— so I think it’s good they lost tonight. 

[mojo]

Man I hope we win on Sunday because after watching the Cowboys last night I’m fairly confident we stomp ‘em.

[88Comrade2000]

34 minutes ago, kleese said:

Cowboys beat Saints, which is a fine outcome in my eyes. I don’t view the division as a realistic goal— I think it will take us sweeping Dallas for sure which I don’t view as likely; and really, if we DO sweep them then having them win in NOLA honestly doesn’t hurt much anyway. 
 

So I’m glad to see the Saints take another L as they are the one team in the WC mix that could really hurt us in a tie-breaker situation. Next up for NOLA is Jets and the only team with a winning record they play over the final four weeks is Tampa— so I think it’s good they lost tonight. 

New Orleans owns Tompa in the regular season.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Rdskns2000

[kleese]

37 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

New Orleans owns Tompa in the regular season.

That NOLA offense is just brutal now though. And Hill sounds like he tore a ligament in his finger. With the way the NFL works, only a fool would count out a team mathematically in the mix, but Saints have the look of a team circling the drain— hopefully they excuse themselves from this race over the next few weeks.  

[ColonialWBSkinsFan]

Just gonna leave this one here… 😎

[bowhunter]

Can someone explain to me how we lost our playoff spot in spite of the win today? Looks like the Eagles at 6-7 overtook that spot. Yet we have a better record, better division and conference record.

[Dr. Do Itch Big]

Thank you Kirk cousins. You overrated bum. 

[JSSkinz]

6th Seed with that San Fran loss

[just654]

10 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

Can someone explain to me how we lost our playoff spot in spite of the win today? Looks like the Eagles at 6-7 overtook that spot. Yet we have a better record, better division and conference record.

we did not I am pretty sure with Sea Winning we moved to the 6th seed