The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Idaho fan]

26 minutes ago, Panninho said:

 

No surprise but still.

They love someone.  Exciting.  While I lean Daniels I like Maye also.  Looking forward to Thursday and opening day where I will be happily rooting for whomever they take at #2.  

 

Unless it's JJ.  If thats the pick Im done. *joke*

Edited April 23 by Idaho fan

[mac8887]

8 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

What do people think of Daniels if his running fell off? I know I'm getting way ahead of myself, but the dream is to have a quarterback that gets my first- and second-graders through high school. Even before the ACL, RGIII didn't seem sustainable.

Would Daniels still be as viable in 2034 as Maye would be? I literally know nothing about CFB because my heart can't take more than one team and one sport, so I have no horse in this race.

I think he can get through his 2nd contract before he starts to lose his wheels. By then, you would hope he will have mastered his craft as a passer enough that he can still be capable to lead the team to being a playoff contender.

[Conn]

2 hours ago, Dan T. said:

 

My point was that using San Francisco as an example directly contradicts the argument you were making. Going with the last pick in the draft as starting QB and dumping the number 3 overall pick from 2 years ago isn't a very compelling argument that you have to pick a quarterback high if you have the chance.  

 

I don't know if the empirical evidence is overwhelming writ large.  I'm sure it skews slightly to success over failure with high draft QBs.  But I don't think it's an overwhelming hit vs. miss ratio. The NFL is littered with examples of high draft busts and lower round successes at QB. 

 

 

That’s still just anecdotal evidence. 
 

The empirical evidence is in fact overwhelming. We’ve talked about it many times over the years on this board, the research on it is extensive and conclusive. It’s not about having a high hit rate at the top of the draft—the hit rate is low across the board, objectively. But there are levels to it. The chance to hit on a high 1st rounder is astronomically higher than any QB in the rest of the draft hitting. You are exponentially more likely to hit with a high QB draft pick. There’s a reason you can instantly name all of the modern QB’s who break this rule: Russ, Kirk, Dak, Brady, seemingly Purdy now. If you’re being generous and want to go back like 25 years, you can say Brees as the 33rd pick. Late 1st gives you Rodgers, Lamar, MAYBE Love if we’re being generous. It’s extremely rare and more than half those guys are aging out of the league already, or already retired, or about to be. So it’s getting even less common as time goes by.
 

In the mid-late rounds, there are dozens upon dozens of flameouts for every hit on even a backup QB—if you want a great franchise QB, the hit rate is infinitesimally small. It’s a much much higher chance in the top-10 picks. Less in the mid-late 1st. But incredibly more likely than hitting on a mid-late round franchise QB. The memorable busts are just all high picks and the nothing mid-late round picks just fade from memory every year. But when you zoom out, the numbers are clear. 

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, FrFan said:

ALL of us should be behind what Adam Peters does at #2 and beyond.   

[RandyHolt]

I wonder if the overpaid QB model will eventually change and find teams will only plan on using a QB for 5 years. Heck why plan for years 6-15 when they will likely bust anyways? Or, a team will grossly overpay after 5 years and the team will be limited by no cash for other positions, so whats the point of hoping for a 15 year QB?

 

An argument for Jaylan Daniels. Win now not worry about 6 years from now.

Edited April 23 by RandyHolt

[skinsfan66]

32 minutes ago, Panninho said:

If this happens, it would single-handeldy ruin every hope I had for this team. You just know how this would end. We would get rolled by the Giants for two decades because they got the player we were supposed to draft...

 

And the can't miss QB prospect that can do it all, missed again, (sexy pick).  

[DogofWar1]

If Daniels loses his wheels as he is now we're in trouble.

 

If he develops as a passer a bit more I do see a lot of potential.  His footwork is good his release is quick and he's got good touch on the ball.  If he can prove/develop his anticipation and small window throws he'll be formidable even without his legs.  Some of it will depend where he falls mentally.

[Conn]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

The Ben Johnson situation isn't really comparable. We probably would have hired him if he didn't blow off the live interview. 

 

If Daniels blows us of and says "yeah I'm not playing in Washington" then yeah it'd be comparable.

You were and are still wrong about this. He only blew off the live interview because he had a feeling we were not in fact going to hire him. He was not the favorite the media painted him to be and then bombed his zoom interview with us and with Seattle. He preferred to go back on the market in the future as someone who rejected all attempts to hire him, than risk being rejected by us in favor of Quinn and looking less desirable. Quinn was basically the favorite all along, which Keim essentially reported early in the process when he was trying to get fans to cool their jets on Ben Johnson. We just didn’t want to listen until it became obvious. 

Edited April 23 by Conn

[BMagic]

If we take Daniels and pass on Maye, I can live with it. However, it we pass up on Maye and he ends up on the Giants then that's the worst possible scenario imo, especially with Daboll being there and him being the one to help unlock Josh Allen. Maye's flaws are ones we've seen be corrected with time and coaching. The upside is easily apparent. I'd much rather he end up on the Vikings or Patriots if he isn't here.

Edited April 23 by BMagic

[Dah-Dee]

GMAP just taunting us now:

 

 

[Est.1974]

8 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I wonder if the overpaid QB model will eventually change and find teams will only plan on using a QB for 5 years. Heck why plan for years 6-15 when they will likely bust anyways? Or, a team will grossly overpay after 5 years and the team will be limited by no cash for other positions anyways, so whats the point of hoping for a 15 year QB?

 

An argument for Jaylan Daniels. Win now not worry about 6 years from now.

Yeah, I’m all for a long term strategy but it’s blatantly clear that drafting a QB is about as tough an evaluation as you get. Adding too much context to 7+ years down the line seems wildly unrealistic to me. Too many variables.

[illone]

19 minutes ago, Idaho fan said:

They love someone.  Exciting.  While I lean Daniels I like Maye also.  Looking forward to Thursday and opening day where I will be happily rooting for whomever they take at #2.  

 

Unless it's JJ.  If thats the pick Im done.

punting on the team before the kid even plays a snap?

 

or wait and see how he does and then punt?

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, skinsfan66 said:

Yes, he did leave the back door open, He also is saying he and everybody in the media, coaches.... are just a guess too as in the pick. No need to defend him all the time either he is not saying go buy Jerseys, that somebody does not want to play here. He knows this new front office is different from the past.  Do not fall for the hype. The back door is open they will decide and till they do.... 

 

Pretty much.

 

While I dismiss those who dismiss what Keim hears or others that are typically credible like Breer and Schefter.  My point its unlikely nothing.  It's very likely something.

 

But it also isn't everything.  None of these guys are prefect.   I don't buy Keim spitballs, lets his own opinion impinge on what he hears, etc.  But I take him at his word when he says he doesn't know anything for sure. 

 

And no one is infalliable.  They all get it wrong sometimes.

 

So why i personally think they likely take Daniels, no way did I think that's 100%.  Anything still feels possible.

Edited April 23 by Skinsinparadise

[Dah-Dee]

Todd McShay has an announcement:

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, BMagic said:

If we take Daniels and pass on Maye, I can live with it. However, it we pass up on Maye and he ends up on the Giants then that's the worst possible scenario imo, especially with Daboll being there and him being the one to help unlock Josh Allen. Maye's flaws are ones we've seen be corrected with time and coaching. The upside is easily apparent. I'd much rather he end up on the Vikings or Patriots if he isn't here.

 

Actually I don't want any of them on the Giants, not even Penix.

[Idaho fan]

2 minutes ago, illone said:

punting on the team before the kid even plays a snap?

 

or wait and see how he does and then punt?

The JJ comment was a joke.  Sorry thought that was obvious.

[seantaylor=god]

One interesting thing to consider- while Daniels might fit for the majority of teams (coaches and executives concerned with being fired) and a desire for the shiny object, we are pretty uniquely situated amongst teams.

 

Why? We have a new owner, new GM, and new coach. The “leash” for each is extremely long. Our owner is a proponent of “the process” and wants to build a long term winner and not take short cuts.

 

Our owner is also fairly young compared to many of the others.

 

Overall, the negative narrative on Maye is pretty strange. Has there been a prospect recently that is both loved by the PFF/Analytics folks AND has big time traits (old school scouting) AND is young and was really productive?

 

The knocks on misses the layup throws, while true, is bizarre because his accuracy overall is excellent so if he misses so badly on these that would mean his intermediate and deep/difficult accuracy is actually awesome. Which tells me he can either improve in th easy stuff, and If he doesn’t, you design an offense that just attacks intermediate/ deep and don’t use the RB dump off plays, etc.

 

I think both can be successful, but I think we are situated for Maye to succeed if the fan base can be patient. He will absolutely flash early, even if he makes rookie mistakes. Considering he lost a year of HS ball to Covid, and only started two years in college, it’s reasonable for him to need some patience and playing time to improve.

 

 

Edited April 23 by seantaylor=god

[illone]

1 minute ago, Dah-Dee said:

Todd McShay has an announcement:

I get paid a pile of money from various sources to talk out of my ass during draft season  

Fixed!

[RWJ]

2 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

Todd McShay has an announcement:

 

 

JP is one person I can't take seriously.  Sorry, JMO for many reasons.  

[ExoDus84]

22 minutes ago, RWJ said:

ALL of us should be behind what Adam Peters does at #2 and beyond.   

 

This is basically where I'm at. My eye test says Maye or even McCarthy would be better options than Daniels, but Peters is a stud, and if that's who the team drafts, I'll get behind it.

 

I'm just a former science teacher that deals blue meth, so what do I know.

[illone]

1 minute ago, Idaho fan said:

The JJ comment was a joke.  Sorry thought that was obvious.

my bad 😂. Sarcasm meter not enabled yet this morning. 

[skinny21]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I keep going back to Josh Harris's press conference. There are no shortcuts to success. Daniels is the equivalent of a shortcut. Take Maye and build a team that can dominate from 2025-2035. 

 

I can't stand anyone who suggests we should take someone based on what Kingsbury would want. If he were the HEAD COACH then MAYBE. But he's an OC. One who doesn't really have the best track record(don't get me wrong I liked the hire, but he's not without his warts). Make him design an offense around the most talented QB or tell him he can kick rocks and find someone else who can.

 

Once again. "Your job is to coach the team I give you." 

In terms of the quote you posted, it’s fascinating because with every other position, it’s coaches telling the GM/scouts what they’re looking for and the staff finding the best fit (factoring in value, etc).  I can’t imagine the Niners GM saying “I know you asked for an athletic guard for your zone scheme, but nah, we’re giving you a slow-footed, gap scheme type.  So it’s kind of a BS (fictional) statement, but if there’s any position it could/should apply to, it’s qb.

 

And of course, there’s the HC angle - as we know, a team with an offensive minded HC is more likely to see continuity in the offense, putting them in better position to play the long game (IMO).  Good news for us is that Quinn/Peters went into this with succession planning in mind, which is pretty awesome (maybe somewhat novel even?).  The myriad of coaching backgrounds should also allow them to better craft a scheme around their rookie qb, vs trying to force the qb into their scheme.  I don’t quite subscribe to Going Commando’s take that franchise qbs are made, but I do think there’s a lot of truth to it, and I see potential for this group to get that side of it right (though it’s a lot of cooks in the kitchen).

 

On a separate, but related note, while I prefer Maye due to traits, upside, a bunch of analytics, as well as his experience with a subpar supporting cast, all of the more nebulous factors of top flight qbs, the intangibles like processing, growth mindset, leadership, grit, coachability, and work ethic - aren’t things I’m equipped to judge.  A lot of “experts” weigh in on these things, but I don’t think they have anything like the full picture.  Although, to be fair, I don’t think even staffs doing tons of behind the scenes work have a full picture either.  As has been said, gotta get the guy in the building and see.  I could easily see a mock redraft a few years down the road looking wildly different than how this draft shakes out.  Here’s hoping our guy would go #1 with hindsight.

 

 

 

[ExoDus84]

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

JP is one person I can't take seriously.  Sorry, JMO for many reasons.  

 

lol JP wasn't the one saying that. He was quoting Todd McShay.

[RWJ]

Just now, ExoDus84 said:

 

lol JP wasn't the one saying that. He was quoting Todd McShay.

Even coming from Todd M. I still don't hold anything credible from JP.  🕊️

[illone]

2 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

I'm just a former science teacher that deals blue meth, so what do I know.

🤣🤣