The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Panninho]

1 minute ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Sun will rise tomorrow. U heard it here first.

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah that ain't the thing noticeable. Everyone knew that was coming. But that they put it out there a couple of minutes right before Rapoport reports the same thing seems unlikely.

[Going Commando]

3 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Sun will rise tomorrow. U heard it here first.

 

You sure you want to go out on a limb like that after the Monday we had?

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, Panninho said:

 It is true though

 

Didn't say it wasn't true.  I said the dude is stating the obvious in advance.  I said here days ago I expected Maye to have a pro visit it would be beyond strange if he didn't.

 

I checked out that web site.  The dude doesn't give his name, say who he is and doesn't have a ton of followers.  Anyone of us can do the same thing.

 

Keim already made fun of one of his tweets of being off.  But heck I could have put on twitter sources are Drake Maye will be meeting with the Commanders back when I assumed it was the case.  Not because I know but because its logical

Edited April 10 by Skinsinparadise

[Panninho]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Didn't say it wasn't true.  I said the dude is stating the obvious in advance.  I said here days ago I expected Maye to have a pro visit it would be beyond strange if he didn't.

 

I checked out that web site.  The dude doesn't give his name, say who he is and doesn't have a ton of followers.  Anyone of us can do the same thing.

 

Keim already made fun of one of his tweets of being off.  But heck I could have put on twitter sources are Drake Maye will be meeting with the Commanders back when I assumed it was the case.  Not because I knoew but because its logical

Like I said, it's less about the content and more about the timing.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, Panninho said:

Like I said, it's less about the content and more about the timing.

 

this is the time to guess it, timing is running out. 

 

If you want to believe this guy is an insider, cool.  I don't and explained why previously. 

[Bifflog]

3 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

We just want to get one last look at Penix to get a good grip on him.

 

Unrelated: I believe Penix would be a top five pick if he had changed his last name to something cool like McQueen or Saracen.

 

[Conn]

16 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

If he just so happens to be a victim of a Wilis/Howell slide down the draft...

Right. There will probably be teams who take him off their board due to his medicals, so you just never know. 

[Panninho]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

this is the time to guess it, timing is running out. 

 

If you want to believe this guy is an insider, cool.  I don't and explained why previously. 

I honestly don't care. Nothing in there that is groundbreaking. Just think it's noticeable that they put only stuff about Maye and Howell out there. Sounds like they might know someone at UNC. Doesn't seem super unlikely. Nothing they reported is spectacular, so really doesn't move me one way or another.

[Warhead36]

Matty Saracen is literally Taylor Heinicke lolol

1 minute ago, Panninho said:

I honestly don't care. Nothing in there that is groundbreaking. Just think it's noticeable that they put only stuff about Maye and Howell out there. Sounds like they might know someone at UNC. Doesn't seem super unlikely. Nothing they reported is spectacular, so really doesn't move me one way or another.

That's what I'm saying as well. I don't think its some super amazing reporter with lots of deep sources, but the timing of their tweets is very interesting. To tweet it literally an hour or so before anyone else means they must have some kind of UNC insider connection. They could have tweeted it yesterday or the day before if they were just making educated guesses, but this level of timing means they gotta be in some kind of know, but only for very specific UNC-related info.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, Panninho said:

I honestly don't care. Nothing in there that is groundbreaking. Just think it's noticeable that they put only stuff about Maye and Howell out there. Sounds like they might know someone at UNC. Doesn't seem super unlikely. Nothing they reported is spectacular, so really doesn't move me one way or another.

 

Maybe they know someone at UNC.   But the Howell stuff they mentioned didn't fit Howell's personality at all.  Keim said the same who basically called out that story as BS.  It just sounded like something to sound cool.

 

Typically if someone is nailing a bunch of things they'd have a large number of followers or put their name to it. 

Edited April 10 by Skinsinparadise

[HTTRDynasty]

18 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

No doubt, but there is something sneaky about that twitter. They reported Maye's Pats top 30 visit before anyone else too. I think they have some kind of connect with a UNC insider.

 

If he has some new information whenever the piece below comes out, this is probably the case.  I've seen him nail a few Patriots-related news items before others as well.

 

 

[ExoDus84]

1 hour ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

JJ McCarthy is such a stud. Like, the way he threw for 300 yards in THREE WHOLE GAMES over his career. Or just check out these awesome yardage totals against ranked

 

2023

10 PSU: 60 yards - 7/8 0 TD, 0 INT - 95.6 QBR

2 OSU: 148 yards  - 16/20, 1 TD, 0 INT - 94 QBR

4 ALA: 221 yards - 17/27, 3 TD, 0 INT - 91 QBR

2 WASH: 140 yards - 10/18, 0 TD, 0 INT - 58 QBR

 

this is totally the guy I want leading my team when we are starting at the 25, down by four with two minutes left.

 

Bold emphasis is mine.

 

I'm not a JJ guy really, but I don't think these passing numbers you mentioned help your case if you look at the context of what he was asked to do. Michigan relied heavily on the run game in the games you listed, so he played a game manager role. However, when he did throw, he was pretty damn efficient. His only "bad" game of the bunch being against Washington.

 

In the games you listed, when he was asked to throw, his completion % was high, and he threw for 4 TDs and 0 picks.

[BMagic]

16 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

No doubt, but there is something sneaky about that twitter. They reported Maye's Pats top 30 visit before anyone else too. I think they have some kind of connect with a UNC insider.

I wonder that as well because they also reported GMAP had been to UNC on multiple occasions in his AGM capacity with the 49ers. No way they were sending an Assistant GM to UNC to gather intel on the LB core there. If they end up being right and GMAP ends up selecting Maye, then that could mean he took this job knowing what he was going to do at 2 all along. I'd be surprised if he didn't have a preference when he took the job regardless, but the scouts and Eugene Shen have surely presented new data points in the interim.

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

Bold emphasis is mine.

 

I'm not a JJ guy really, but I don't think these passing numbers you mentioned help your case if you look at the context of what he was asked to do. Michigan relied heavily on the run game in the games you listed, so he played a game manager role. However, when he did throw, he was pretty damn efficient. His only "bad" game of the bunch being against Washington.

 

In the games you listed, when he was asked to throw, his completion % was high, and he threw for 4 TDs and 0 picks.

That's why he's such a wild card. We really have no idea what he is. We didn't see him have to elevate a program the way Williams did for USC or Maye did for UNC. Yeah he's a "winner" but he was mostly just a caretaker, but did occasionally make some throws when he absolutely had to.

 

You can't take someone like that at #2. A #2 overall pick has to have shown some ability of carrying a team.

1 minute ago, BMagic said:

I wonder that as well because they also reported GMAP had been to UNC on multiple occasions in his AGM capacity with the 49ers. No way they were sending an Assistant GM to UNC to gather intel on the LB core there. If they end up being right and GMAP ends up selecting Maye, then that could mean he took this job knowing what he was going to do at 2 all along. I'd be surprised if he didn't have a preference when he took the job regardless, but the scouts and Eugene Shen have surely presented new data points in the interim.

Yeah that too. That's why its so interesting. That account only reports UNC related stuff. Its not like they're dropping nuggets on JJ McCarthy or Jayden Daniels. And the timing of the tweets reporting when guys are meeting with teams is too tight to just be educated guesses(its literally same day an hour or so before type timing).

 

Then when you think about it, Peters really did take our job super fast didn't he? There were lots of GM candidates and lots of teams needing GMs. But we interviewed Peters and like a day later he's hired. And now there are reports he scouted UNC during the season. It kinda all adds up if you think about it. There is a guy he's scouted personally that he really likes, and he can go to a team that can draft him without having to mortgage the future. ON TOP of being able to hire a new coach and have $90 Mil in cap space to revamp the team. It really is a perfect storm.

 

Of course it could all be nothing too. But it makes for interesting conversation I suppose.

[Panninho]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Maybe they know someone at UNC.   But the Howell stuff they mentioned didn't fit Howell's personality at all.  Keim said the same who basically called out that story as BS.  It just sounded like something to sound cool.

 

Typically if someone is nailing a bunch of things they'd have a large number of followers or put their name to it. 

Got a friend who knows some people working for my favorite football club (or soccer as you guys call it) because he is from the region. He has a scoop every once in a while. Usually on personnel or youth football but sometimes also higher. He posts it on Twitter where he mostly talks about soccer in general. He has under 2k followers and is unverified. 

I just think, it's not that uncommon. You just have to know one person. But like I said...since nothing is groundbreaking news, it's really not that important. 

 

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

Bold emphasis is mine.

 

I'm not a JJ guy really, but I don't think these passing numbers you mentioned help your case if you look at the context of what he was asked to do. Michigan relied heavily on the run game in the games you listed, so he played a game manager role. However, when he did throw, he was pretty damn efficient. His only "bad" game of the bunch being against Washington.

 

In the games you listed, when he was asked to throw, his completion % was high, and he threw for 4 TDs and 0 picks.

 

This is why JJ reminds me of Alex Smith. Not really a guy who's going to carry a team, but if you put the right pieces around him he'll be very efficient, will limit turnovers, and will be able to help move the chains.

 

Could that change in the NFL and he'll turn into a stud who can carry a team with his arm? Sure. Is there any actual evidence for it? No, not really. Is that gamble worth betting the #2 overall pick on?

 

[ExoDus84]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

That's why he's such a wild card. We really have no idea what he is. We didn't see him have to elevate a program the way Williams did for USC or Maye did for UNC. Yeah he's a "winner" but he was mostly just a caretaker, but did occasionally make some throws when he absolutely had to.

 

You can't take someone like that at #2. A #2 overall pick has to have shown some ability of carrying a team.

 

Agree with your points. I was just thinking that listing a QBs yardage alone for games he played as a reason for not drafting him, without any context at all, is meaningless. "He threw for 60 yards!", doesn't mean anything if the QB only attempted 8 passes.

 

As for what we do with #2, I'll leave it up to Peters and Co. To my eyes, Maye and Daniels look a notch above McCarthy, and I'm personally preferential towards Maye, but I'm just a couch fan, so what do I really know about QB evaluations?

[Going Commando]

10 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Matty Saracen is literally Taylor Heinicke lolol

 

I went to the IMDB page for Varsity Blues to check if James Van Der Beek's character was literally named "Moxie" before I made a comparison to Taylor Heinicke, and this is the actor that played Mox's little brother:

 

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0681665/?ref_=tt_cl_t_12

 

 

That has to be a picture of Eli Manning in 1996.

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

lol, It seems like whatever leaks exist right now from personnel-coaches including McGinn who has a strong reputation for talking to the right scouts about what unfolds on draft day are mostly high on BOTH Daniels and Maye. Granted with McGinn its just 3 scouts right now.  It will be a larger group soon.  But similar drill came out via the Athletic during the combine, scouts saying similar things.  Mostly high on both of them.

 

But with this fan base it seems like there is only one clear answer.  That's actually totally fine in my eyes. I got one clear answer too in my mind.  But the weird part is the other answer sucks.  Judging by various rumors, some teams are clamoring to trading up for either guy, killing to be where we are at -- yet to some one option sucks.   Here that answer seems to be Maye or bust.  On twitter it feels more Daniels or bust.

 

I am a Maye guy.  But I am not one of those who thinks the other option sucks.

 

I've explained why many times.  The cliff notes version:  Maye -- arm talent, can make every throw in the book, size is a trait, mobile.  Daniels:  electric runner, clean mechanics-consistent passer, throws a wicked fade, good deep ball.  Concerns?  Can Maye clean up his mechanics and not rush his first level throws, can he adjust his rotational mechanics throwing off platform -- he has magical off platform throws but also some really bad ones.  Can Daniels stay healhy?  Throw off platform versus take off?  Throw with anticipation?

 

But I wonder how many people won't flip out if they don't take one over the other?  I am I gather in the vocal minority that I'd be good either way even though I have a preference.  For mate to hate the alternative it would have to be that I see no narrative where it made sense.   But yeah for me, I woud never see a QB who is an electruc runner.  IMO elite runner who also has clean mechanics and is at least a decent passer as some sort of crazy pill move.  It makes sense to me.  

 

If I had to guess what they do?   I put some but not heavy stock in the rumors of their leanings.  I am not in the crowd that the reporters are full of crap or stupid and don't understand human nature or get like we do from a distance when they are played or not.  These aren't dummy reporters.  Breer, Schefter, Keim.  But leaning are just leanings.  No one has said that its definitive and they made up their mind.  It still feels to me 50-50.  The only thing for those who think Daniels is a walking bust and would be a ridiculous choice, I've heard enough that I know this FO doesn't agree with that.  Among other things, they aren't spending 2 days with Daniels next week because they see him as a joke.

 

But I am not pessimistic at all about the chances they take Maye.  I know the pro day hasn't been scheduled yet.  But i do expect it will happen.  And if if doesn't that isn't always a bad sign.  They might have seen enough.  I still think its at least 50% chance its Maye.  For me personally, its Maye without hesitation.  My only thing about Daniels, is i don't think he sucks.  And I don't think they are off the wall crazy if they do it.  I can understand the narrative.  My #1 fear with Daniels is injuries and by a mile. 

 

For me, not that it's your job or anything, but you've got to talk me down from the warning signs I hear screaming over Daniels profile. Everything that matters to me that can be measured and I tend to think is relevant to bust rate, he's got high concerns on. Throwing with anticipation, using the full field, obsessing with early reads, pressure to sack ratio, huge break out in last year of career, basically the Kenny Pickett alert (not that he was as crappy as Pickett before it)...

 

That's why it frightens me, I have a two fold set of concerns:

#1: What does it say about our FO/GM if they ignore all the trademark warning signs associated with busting that Daniels smashes. 

#2: Daniels feels like he has the highest bust risk of any guy, to me, amongst the top 5 QBs in the draft in purely quarterbacking terms (not injury related), and it would be a self-inflicted mistake with Maye available.

 

Another poster mentioned us getting on the same page and backing a guy, but honestly, I view that as a two pronged situation:

#1 That's only a problem if the guy busts, except for crazy people. If I'm wrong on a guy, like I was say in loving a Rosen or a Baker over a guy whose accuracy issues made him fall nearly totally off my board in Josh Allen, I admit it, and own it. I'm not sitting here six years later, pretending I was right about Rosen, or Allen's career prospects. I still think my process was/is right (same with McLaurin, though I tweaked it a bit, along the OSU crowded WR room "context" angle), but it doesn't change reality. As another example I had Tua 1B to Burrow's 1A. That's straight up laughable now. I'm not a guy that will man the barricades to the end over an argument rather than concede. The only nuance to that is if its an outlier mistake, versus a process mistake. If my process is crap, that's alarming and I have to fix my ---- so to speak, but if I had good process and just missed, I'm not gonna worry about it. There's no way to do this perfectly. 

 

#2 If we end up being right (Daniels skeptics) and we selected Daniels....what are people going to expect? This isn't an RGIII situation, where you just debate if a trade up was right or not. This is an A or B situation, and either neither is right, both are right, or one is right. If it turns out Maye is a stud, and Daniels is a bust a la Lance, Wilson, or just disappointing like Tua, there's no way to avoid the sturm and drang that will play out in here. And why should there be? I'm not gonna be indulging in I told you so's, I'm just gonna be angry and depressed that we couldn't avoid what seemed quite obvious (not who would hit, but rather, which one had the much higher bust risk). You don't win points or make money by being right or wrong in here, it's not some sort of zero sum game, but I will be frustrated, and angry that something that was so much easier (to me anyway) than figuring out if Howell could be great, or whether we should take Tua or trade down for Herbert or chase Young, or trade up for Fields, something much easier than all that, was still screwed up. 

 

Anyway, if we do take Daniels, I hope you can find a way to write away my concerns about his bust alarms, but I'm skeptical. I am not in anyway confident in my ability to proclaim Maye a stud and be right. I have no idea if he'll hit, as I've said before, I just am far less concerned about his negatives, which to me, are largely historically, not terribly relevant to hit and bust rate, then I am about Daniels, which seem much more closely associated with bust rate. As I've said in recent months and probably the past year, I don't think anybody has figured out how to nail down what makes for a great QB versus what doesnt, people just seem much better at smoking at what should be real alarm bells, and what are lesser or non-existent ones. For me the bells are just much louder with Daniels, then add that I think Maye has a higher ceiling too, and it's an easy decision for me, I have a hard time understanding why it appears a toss up or bends Daniels way, but maybe its just b.s. We'll see. 

[redskinss]

17 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

If he has some new information whenever the piece below comes out, this is probably the case.  I've seen him nail a few Patriots-related news items before others as well.

 

 

 

 

 

1. Insights into his UNC situation 2. New info on the NIL/transfer rumors 3. Update on how teams view this info

 

What does any of that even mean?

 

His unc situation? Appears to me is about to be non existent because he'll be in the nfl.

 

New info on nil/transfer?

What new info? Again seems irrelevant in 2 weeks.

 

I definitely feel like I'm missing something here.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10 by redskinss

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

18 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

Bold emphasis is mine.

 

I'm not a JJ guy really, but I don't think these passing numbers you mentioned help your case if you look at the context of what he was asked to do. Michigan relied heavily on the run game in the games you listed, so he played a game manager role. However, when he did throw, he was pretty damn efficient. His only "bad" game of the bunch being against Washington.

 

In the games you listed, when he was asked to throw, his completion % was high, and he threw for 4 TDs and 0 picks.

My point is that it’s silly to talk about drafting him as high as people are talking about drafting him. College game managers do not deserve to be picked at the top of the first round… or anywhere in the first round really.

[SoCalSkins]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Got a friend who knows some people working for my favorite football club (or soccer as you guys call it) because he is from the region. He has a scoop every once in a while. Usually on personnel or youth football but sometimes also higher. He posts it on Twitter where he mostly talks about soccer in general. He has under 2k followers and is unverified. 

I just think, it's not that uncommon. You just have to know one person. But like I said...since nothing is groundbreaking news, it's really not that important. 

 

 

I got a friend ironically plugged into people with the premier league because they help run a world soccer podcast.  So once in a blue moon they will tell me something they hear.

 

But its very 2nd hand and once you start playing telephone with rumors the stories get filtered and altered even if its unitentionally.

 

The Howell story came off a bit ridiculous to me.  The dude is so hyper competitive that he'd be a problem if they took a QB.  Same dude who scouts said before the draft is one of the quietest QB prospects they've ever met.   Super nice guy.  Quiet, easy going off the field.  He's already said he's happy to be the backup in Seattle and would support the starter.  But Keim calling out the story as BS is the kicker for me.

 

But agree, he probably has some 2nd hand source at UNC.  The "story" tomorrow about Maye should be interesting.  If I was just winging a story on this myself piecing together different narratives for months. I'd write something that would tie together these narratives -- some I heard, some am just making up but sounds good and fits.

 

A.  Maye's struggles were much about coaching-play calling.

 

B.  The coach, Chip Lindsey altered Drak's mechanics and hence some of his issues.

 

C.  Maye felt he had to carry the team.  But he's such a good teammate that he would never said that publicly

 

D.  There was some tension in the locker room for all of the above

 

E.  NFL teams see this and believe that Maye saved this coaching staff's job

 

F.  NFL teams are much higher on Maye than mock drafters.  Privately we hear from sources that Maye killed it in the combine interviews.  He was the most thorough and engaging of the QBs.

 

G.  Expect Maye to go 2nd or at worst 3rd.  Different people in the building have different takes but we hear Peters prefer Maye

 

H. Washington traded Howell in part because of the friendship between Maye and Howell.

Edited April 10 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

A.  Maye's struggles were much about coaching-play calling.

 

B.  The coach, Chip Lindsey altered Drak's mechanics and hence some of his issues.

 

C.  Maye felt he had to carry the team.  But he's such a good teammate that he would never said that publicly

 

D.  There was some tension in the locker room for all of the above

 

E.  NFL teams see this and believe that Maye saved this coaching staff's job

 

F.  NFL teams are much higher on Maye than mock drafters.  Privately we hear from sources that Maye killed it in the combine interviews.  He was the most thorough and engaging of the QBs.

 

G.  Expect Maye to go 2nd or at worst 3rd.  Different people in the building have different takes but we hear Peters prefer Maye

 

H. Washington traded Howell in part because of the friendship between Maye and Howell.

That's...probably going to be at least 90% spot on lolol.

 

I think the nil stuff is just what we already know about how there was one nil Maye wouldn't take unless they paid his OL too.

[Going Commando]

13 minutes ago, redskinss said:

1. Insights into his UNC situation 2. New info on the NIL/transfer rumors 3. Update on how teams view this info

 

What does any of that even mean?

 

His unc situation? Appears to me is about to be non existent because he'll be in the nfl.

 

New info on nil/transfer?

What new info? Again seems irrelevant in 2 weeks.

 

I definitely feel like I'm missing something here.

 

Maye's potential NIL deals and transfer situation was the big story with him back in the winter of '22 and spring of '23.  It was a national story that got play on ESPN, and he kind of became emblematic of how NIL was ruining college football.  Nothing really came of it because he never transferred.  I assume that is what this article is supposed to be about, and presumably it will reveal new information, but the topic is old news and it seems irrelevant to his NFL future.

 

I'd be curious about how that story got legs though.  Just as someone with concerns about the future of college football, I'd like to know what happened there.  Who was trying to buy him away from UNC, how did it happen, why and how did Drake decide to stay at UNC, etc.