The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Warhead36]

Daniels is a Heisman trophy winner from a top notch college program. His playstyle is also more electric and fun to watch, and its something that grabs the casual. He's an easy guy to hype up and manipulate the perception of.

[shemp nixon]

21 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

The Bills put together a playoff roster in his 3rd year at the helm. What has Allen has done even with a playoff roster around him? He is not an elite QB. 

Allen has elite talent. He just gets caught up in playing hero ball and at some of the worst possible moments.

[zCommander]

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

That's crazy. Allen is absolutely elite. If he isn't then I don't know who is. He's not Mahomes sure, but you can legitimately argue he's 2nd. Without a doubt he's top 5. His peers being Burrow and Jackson, maybe Stroud.

 

To me Burrow has been better of the 3. At least he took his team to the SB his second year there and almost won. I give him the edge there. If you look at Allen's first few years with the Bills he was meh. To me top 10 though. He is a good QB but not at the great level. He had a chance to be even great this past year but fell flat on his face when it mattered the most. That to me is not elite. 

 

In your opinion who looks better coming out of college. Allen or Maye?

[Dah-Dee]

New article from Yahoo (referencing a podcast with PFF analyst Steve Palazzolo) that confirms/reinforces a lot of the good things we've discussed about Maye:

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/drake-maye-could-among-best-143501748.html

 

Drake Maye could be among best QB prospects ‘ever' in one key area

Darren Hartwell

Wed, Apr 3, 2024, 10:35 AM EDT

 

[excerpt]

 

“I think Drake Maye is one of the best middle-of-the-field throwers I’ve ever seen in college football. As far as the feel (of) throwing a seam route, throwing the ball around defenders, throwing with touch, layering it — the middle of the field is outstanding. I think he’s got to work outside the numbers a little bit better. That’s my my quick take on Drake.”

 

That’s a bold take from Palazzolo, but the numbers back him up: Maye had an insane 99.9 PFF grade (out of 100) on “deep center” passes in 2023 and a lofty 89.2 grade on “deep intermediate” passes. His passer rating was well over 100 on all throws in the middle of the field beyond the line of scrimmage, as illustrated in the PFF passing chart below.

 

 

Maye’s excellence in the middle of the field stems not just from his incredibly strong arm, but also his ability to vary his throwing speeds, as NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund explained to Perry on a recent episode of Next Pats.

 

“That translates well because you have to adjust to the game speed of the NFL, and you’re not necessarily going to be throwing bombs down the field,” Frelund explained. “You need to also adjust your speeds for intermediate throws, which is where Drake Maye really excels, and also shorter throws, which do actually matter.”

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

To me Burrow has been better of the 3. At least he took his team to the SB his second year there and almost won. I give him the edge there. If you look at Allen's first few years with the Bills he was meh. To me top 10 though. He is a good QB but not at the great level. He had a chance to be even great this past year but fell flat on his face when it mattered the most. That to me is not elite. 

 

In your opinion who looks better coming out of college. Allen or Maye?

What is your definition of elite? If its top 3 then its debatable. I think Allen and Burrow are the same tier. The difference between the two is that Mahomes goes god mode against Allen's defense, but wet the bed in the AFC Title game one time against Burrow's defense. If its top 5 then Allen is absolutely 100% a top 5 QB in the league. Mahomes is undoubtedly better. Burrow, Jackson, and maybe Stroud(only one great year, if he does it again then I'd put him at #2 honestly) and that's it. Who else is better? You won't find one. Unless you wanna put 40 year old Aaron Rodgers coming off an ACL up there.

 

As far as coming out of college, definitely Maye. Allen was a big time project who struggled against bad competition. They have similar traits though. I think Maye is kind of an Allen/Herbert hybrid. Or a more mobile/athletic Phillip Rivers. He's just such a unique moldable piece of clay and at only 21 his ceiling is enormous. By age 24 he's gonna be contending for MVPs.

Edited April 4 by Warhead36

[Jumbo]

It's very possible that a notable majority of fans and pundits simply, really, prefer JD over DM. There's a decent enough argument to be made for the preference that it isn't some really shaky or dumb pov at all.

 

And those in the Maye camp are simply in the minority, though they have arguably decent reasoning for their preference. 

 

We don't even know which camp is larger nationally or in the entire media pundit population.😄

 

You never have a 50-50 split on such things.

 

I'd say key points, and rather obvious ones, to embrace are:

 

Both guys look pretty good overall. Both guys could be big time winners, but busts are always possible as we all know.

 

No one knows who we're taking.

 

No one knows who will turn out better.

 

One camp is not smart and the other dumb. One camp isn't on point and the other clueless. 

 

No good reason for people to act ****ty or incredulous about one preference over the other in this matter 

 

We do allow blunt rebukes to a particular post if merited. Read rule five and twelve carefully. Just keep in mind moderators make the final call on what's merited or not so error on the side of caution is my advice.

 

And if you're new in participation here, you have little slack to act like a jerk or a smartass for any reason. Avoid demeaning the forum or another poster and maybe establish yourself with the community a bit, or don't.

 

Your choice. 

 

🙂

 

[zCommander]

5 minutes ago, shemp nixon said:

Allen has elite talent. He just gets caught up in playing hero ball and at some of the worst possible moments.

 

Agree. He has the tools but to be elite you have to have elite processing as well. 

 

@Warhead36 The way I look at elite is if the QB is able to find a way to win games after being down. The mental toughness. Calm and collective and making great decisions on the clutch - that is bigger part of the being elite. Having a short term memory after in INT. Making something out of nothing and not forcing and knowing when to just throw away. Being a surgeon and dissecting defenses, even if it is only 5-8 yards at a time (Brady did that a lot). That is just top of my head. I am sure others might have a different set of things they like the QB should be able to do. 

[Tress Is The Way]

17 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

New article from Yahoo (referencing a podcast with PFF analyst Steve Palazzolo) that confirms/reinforces a lot of the good things we've discussed about Maye:

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/drake-maye-could-among-best-143501748.html

 

Drake Maye could be among best QB prospects ‘ever' in one key area

Darren Hartwell

Wed, Apr 3, 2024, 10:35 AM EDT

 

[excerpt]

 

“I think Drake Maye is one of the best middle-of-the-field throwers I’ve ever seen in college football. As far as the feel (of) throwing a seam route, throwing the ball around defenders, throwing with touch, layering it — the middle of the field is outstanding. I think he’s got to work outside the numbers a little bit better. That’s my my quick take on Drake.”

 

That’s a bold take from Palazzolo, but the numbers back him up: Maye had an insane 99.9 PFF grade (out of 100) on “deep center” passes in 2023 and a lofty 89.2 grade on “deep intermediate” passes. His passer rating was well over 100 on all throws in the middle of the field beyond the line of scrimmage, as illustrated in the PFF passing chart below.

 

 

Maye’s excellence in the middle of the field stems not just from his incredibly strong arm, but also his ability to vary his throwing speeds, as NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund explained to Perry on a recent episode of Next Pats.

 

“That translates well because you have to adjust to the game speed of the NFL, and you’re not necessarily going to be throwing bombs down the field,” Frelund explained. “You need to also adjust your speeds for intermediate throws, which is where Drake Maye really excels, and also shorter throws, which do actually matter.”

It really seems like the NFL has more interest than Maye than Twitter (or it is X now? Who knows) world. Clyde Christensen is pretty enamored with Maye and that holds a lot of water being a coach of Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Tom Brady.

Edited April 4 by Tress Is The Way

[illone]

5 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

You never have a 50-50 split on such things.

 

 

 

I've got it:

 

59% Maye

40.5% Daniels

.5% JJ Island

 

Based on thorough scientific analysis 🤓

 

*ES only, media excluded 😂

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

 

One theory, I suppose, might be that Maye's team knows he's going either 2 or 3 and feels no need to feed the hype. But it's still annoying lol.

 

Yeah Daniels hype machine seems to be in overdrive.  Maye's people whomever they are -- don't come off as aggressive.

 

I'd love for example to hear Maye himself address the issues some critics keep bringing up.   I understand he was great in the combine interviews with teams.

 

I found it ironic and classy for Maye to do an interview with Simms during the combine after Simms trashed him in a video segment just a few days before that.

[jg77]

I think there's a better chance of Maye falling out of the top 5 than us selecting him at 2. I'm not trying to be harsh but I think he needs to sit an entire year. The Pats would be a good fit cause they have Brissett who can start but do they want the risky selection after what happened with Mac Jones? Not sure.

 

Chris Simms labeled Maye a project and JT O'Sullivan says he has Tebow like misses (yikes) and doesn't have a natural throwing motion. Warner mentioned similar issues and so did Greg Cosell. It's just too many people who more qualified than any of us saying the same thing. If you watch on Blake Bortles UCF tape...he looks just like Maye. Bortles could've been a lot better if he could sit and work his game.

 

I will say that if we select Maye then we need to let Mariota play the entire year. I would hope the staff doesn't let the pressure from the fans make him start too early.

[Skinsinparadise]

Feldman, who seems pretty plugged in over the years

 

 

 

[mistertim]

15 minutes ago, jg77 said:

I think there's a better chance of Maye falling out of the top 5 than us selecting him at 2. I'm not trying to be harsh but I think he needs to sit an entire year. The Pats would be a good fit cause they have Brissett who can start but do they want the risky selection after what happened with Mac Jones? Not sure.

 

Chris Simms labeled Maye a project and JT O'Sullivan says he has Tebow like misses (yikes) and doesn't have a natural throwing motion. Warner mentioned similar issues and so did Greg Cosell. It's just too many people who more qualified than any of us saying the same thing. If you watch on Blake Bortles UCF tape...he looks just like Maye. Bortles could've been a lot better if he could sit and work his game.

 

I will say that if we select Maye then we need to let Mariota play the entire year. I would hope the staff doesn't let the pressure from the fans make him start too early.

 

As I've said (and stated my reasons pretty specifically) I think a case can be made for either of them starting immediately or sitting.

 

Also, Chris Simms is an idiot who's more of an entertainer vs analyst and Kurt Warner has already admitted that he just hates college football in general.

[ntotoro]

Did JD's agent create a bunch of sock accounts over the last few weeks or something?

[Warhead36]

Maye is a more highly regarded prospect than Bortles. Maye has been billed as a top notch QB prospect for two years and probably goes #1 if not for Williams and would have a shot at going #1 most other years. At worst he'll be picked 3rd in a very strong QB class. Bortles was talented but also your typical team desperate for a QB makes a reach pick. The only other QBs taken in the 1st that year were Manziel and Bridgewater and those were super late picks(20s for Manziel, 32 for Bridgewater). It was a terrible class.

 

Of course that doesn't guarantee anything. Maye end up being Bortles-esque. But it isn't the best comparison.

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

 

The Bills put together a playoff roster in his 3rd year at the helm. What has Allen has done even with a playoff roster around him? He is not an elite QB. 

Josh Allen has played in 10 playoff games (that alone suggests he is doing something right). In those games he has thrown for 2,700 yards and change, 21 TDs and 4 INTS. He also has over 500 yards rushing and 5 rushing TDs in those games.

That's what Allen has done in the playoffs and it looks pretty good to me. I'd say he is elite. Josh Allen is not what is stopping Buffalo winning a Super Bowl, he is a big part of what is giving them a chance each year.

[Skinsinparadise]

I skimmed through this, this is the article that Feldman referenced

 

 

[Jumbo]

I can't name any pundits I treat real seriously in situations like the ones we're in (the draft; two very diff but generally very well regarded players at the QB position). Most are pretty vapid afaic 

 

With very few exceptions, pundits are best used for entertainment value and providing fodder for conversation, but definitely not a source for definitive, consistent, accurate prognostications or analyses in complex natters, especially ones like this. They throw darts and not at tournament level.

 

What I observe isln forum discussions as a venue is those who have a strong preference, or full on bias, tend to choose whatever pundit supports their take. It's common familiar human behavior in a multitude of matters.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

Y

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Panninho said:

Honestly, the more I digest, the less I understand how any team could take JD over Maye. There are just so many red flags:

 

• Historically bad pressure to sack ratio: A stat that is probably the most stable stat between college and NFL. I don't know a single player who has overcome this at the next level. His numbers are pretty much on par with Tyrod Taylor - a guy who takes a sack every 10 snaps in the league. It doesn't mean that he cannot still be a decent overall player but there is no reason to believe that this issue is going to go away at the next level. Maye's stats here also aren't great (like e.g. Penix) but he is still at an acceptable level.
• Breakout Age. It took JD 4 years in college to have a season like he had last season. Granted, that was a great season and he wasn't particularly bad in the other seasons. It's just that he was at best a day 2 guy coming into his senior year. How much room is there to grow? Maye broke out his sophomore year and was the designated 1/2 pick both his starting seasons in college.
• Support cast: He had by far the best support cast in all of college football. He has two WRs who have a great chance to both go in the top-15. So both might get picked higher than Chase and Jefferson did respectively (in a class that is loaded with WR talent). His O-line was regarded as a top10 O-line by PFF going into the season. PFF now ranks his two OTs as 1st and 8th among all returning OTs in the country and says both have a chance to be first round picks next year. His support cast was so good, that Garrett Nussmeier came in and threw for 400y and 3 TDs against Wisconsin in the Bowl game. Brian Thomas didn't miss a beat and went off for 100 and 2 TDs in that game. Is this the reason he went off that past season? Maye's supporting cast sucked. Everyone agrees. His team got demolished without him against West Virigina in the bowl game. There might be 3 guys on that roster who get drafted.
• He is tiny. Yes, he weighed in at 210 lbs but I don't think anyone believes that he can sustain that weight once the season starts. QBs under 210lbs have a horrible track record in the league. Just last year Bryce Young got drafted and this guy looks ridiculous on an NFL field. He is a lot shorter obviously but his BMI is still 4 points higher than JD's. They weigh almost the same and Young actually got weighed during the combine and not a month later. No size concerns with Maye.
• He did not get measured at the combine. He did not test athletically at all (imo big for a guy whose primary edge many people see in the run game). Maye got measured at the combine - why wouldn't you if you have no concerns? He also did not test athletically but for him, it's not the biggest selling point. I still wish he would have done that. But overall it's a bigger knock on JD than on Maye because everyone wanted to know how fast JD was at 210lbs.
• There is all that Arizona stuff, that I don't want to hold against him because I don't really know what happened in that program. But it is at least worth mentioning.

 

All of this is pretty concerning before you even get to the tape. And I admit, that I do not know enough to go into the details on the tape (a thing where even the most experienced personnel guys in the league struggle). As far as I understand it, draft media seems to think that right now he is more polished than Maye and might have a higher floor. But I am not drafting for floor at #2 and I would also have to weigh in the college experience when it comes to how clean the mechanics are.

 

There are no perfect prospects but these are a lot of concerns that just speak against JD. Now, there are obviously also things that speak against Maye but to me they aren't as fundamental. To me, the odds are pretty much stacked against JD from the start. Factor in that even the harshest Maye critics seem to agree that Maye has the higher ceiling, I am not sure how you gamble on JD over Mayer (and it is always a gamble when you take a QB). And for all I know, JD could end up being the best of all the QBs. But I think if you want to maximize your chances of hitting big on your pick, it's not your smart choice.

 

I would not be surprised at all if it actually is Daniels who slides a bit on draft day. I still think he has great potential and if we actually end up drafting him, then the world will not end. Like I said, overall I don't know enough to understand all the intricacies of scouting and projecting QBs but my excitement for the pick would not be super high because of all the risk involved.

 

 

The Chargers basically cannot trade Herbert. The dead cap would be huge and negate the benefits of a rookie QB contract. And that would be the only reason why anyone would even entertain such an idea because the chance that JJ ends up as good as Herbert are miniscule. Also Herbert has a no-trade clause.

Harbaugh is hyping up JJ because he wants his players to get drafted and because he wants someone to trade up to #4, so that he can take their highest graded non-QB on the draft board (likely MHJ).

Pretty much, my only quibble is the breakout age, he actually did produce whats considered a breakout age season as a freshman, he just never produced an elite college season inside the top 10-15 or so of college QB's until year 5, which considering Maye did it in his first year as a starter is ridiculous. I find the idea people have him ahead of Maye absurd personally, and it's another sign of why the NFL, to me anyway, just habitually gets some things wrong. We'll see though. When I argue that btw, it's not that Im arguing he's a bust and Maye's gonna be God Mode, rather I'm arguing that between the two CV's, there are an absolute litany of trade mark warning signs with Daniels that don't exist with Maye and most of these signs are the most concerning signs you can have for a prospect. I'm gobsmacked that the NFL may be ignoring that. We'll see in a few weeks if it was all bull---- or not, but the NFL has a long pockmocked history of being just as stupid at projecting future success at the QB position as any random poster on a message board, they're collective league wide hit rate is god awful, and they are notorious for being wrong when they ignore warning signs (Danny Nickels, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Ryan Pickett, Bryce Young being the most recent examples).....When it comes to the appeal to authority fallacy being found out, there is no greater example then NFL GM's and QB's. They've got no clue just like us, and worse, they consistently ignore the most important predictors of future "busts". 

[BayouBrave86]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Daniels isn't a taller Murray at all. That comp makes no sense. Murray is lightning quick and elusive. He's also very stocky and strong.

 

Daniels has straight line speed but doesn't really have wiggle or elusiveness. He's RG3 but skinnier and with a weaker arm.

Yeah if anyone is taller Kyler its Caleb. I would say Caleb is a hybrid of taller Kyler and shorter Rodgers.

Daniels absolutely is elusive. I feel like i'm taking crazy pills reading some of these takes. He made a ton of defenders miss in the open field if he wasn't already running right past them. 

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, ntotoro said:

Did JD's agent create a bunch of sock accounts over the last few weeks or something?

 

JD defintely having a good week as for mocks.  All morning seems like the 980 guys are talking up Daniels as a possibility here.

 

Does that mean it happens?  Of course not.  But tough for me pretend there is no shot it ends up Daniels. 

 

 

 

Oh no Simms now on Standig. 😎  I'll listen for laughs.  By the time draft day comes on wouldn't shock me if Simms try to make the case that he should be an UDFA -- or should head straight to the Canadian league??=

 

 

 

[Dah-Dee]

26 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I skimmed through this, this is the article that Feldman referenced

 

 

 

 

Thank you, this is the most detailed discussion I've seen on that technology. I just think it's really exciting and would be stunned if we don't see a wave of this being used all over the country. Feels like one of those leaps that happen every so often to improve athlete performance. Good stuff.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Standig.

 

 

[CapsSkins]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I read it.    I've had a mixed vibe about his personality.

 

Everything being equal i am not a fan of the shy introverts as QBs -- am more of the Peyton and Brady type fans who like that style of leadership.  I swallowed it though with Sam.   Also it annoys me how much he likes to talk abut his work ethic which he does so again in that letter.   People that have strong work ethics from my experience don't have to constantly brag about it, it makes you wonder a little on that count considering his coaches have alluded to this work ethic is something that kicked in -- in a big way last off season.    Though he explains in the letter he had it sooner than that.

 

And the stories about his mom come off weird.  Ditto the Riddick segment who loves him but also said he's being deal with personal issues that he's almost through and recently came out of his shell.  Also didn't love his lame excuse for not weighing himself at the combine by saying it would take attention away from his teammates.  All weird to me.

 

But the letter he comes off mostly well to me.  Very thoughtful.  

lol this “letter” is a puff piece prob designed by his agents and ghostwritten like all those Athletic pieces are. It’s propaganda.

 

Not to say it’s totally inaccurate, but let’s not pretend he organically decided hey I feel emotionally compelled to pen my thoughts as I go thru this process. It’s all sausage-making