The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[KDawg]

2 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Either way, are you definitely still going QB at #2 ? Both Daniels and Maye have enough about them in your opinion to take that shot at #2. Genuinely asking because the main reservation for me is that I’m still unsure on that ‘value’ once Williams goes #1.

100% yes.

 

We have Marcus Mariota otherwise with no guarantee we can get to a place to get McCarthy, Nix, etc. the pick at 2 has to be a QB.

[Going Commando]

6 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Addison has 3 more years on a rookie deal, and a 5th year option to play with, he's more valuable of an asset. Jefferson's about to get PAID next offseason, the biggest FA contract ever given to a WR, as such, he doesn't carry the value Addison's cost control does even if he isn't remotely in Jefferson's tier. 

 

Paying a future Hall of Famer in his prime is worth whatever contract they end up getting.  Jefferson is a far more valuable asset at any price point because he's one of the best players in the league.  Guys like that usually don't hit free agency.  The contracts that are problematic are the ones for guys who set the market and they're like the 12th best player at their position, which is who usually hits free agency.  Kirk Cousins for 40 million a year.

[Skinsinparadise]

The trial by fire 2023 season for Maye IMO is a double edge sword.  But I take it as more of a positive than negative.  I like that he played the season with the team on his shoulders.  I like that quote from a scout who said Maye single handily saved the whole NC coaching staff from getting fired.  Dealing with duress, trash at his feet.  No legit #1 Wr.  No legit #1 TE.  Poor blocking. And dealt with it at the ripe age of 21.

 

The downside is his season wasn't as good as the prior one.  And he rushed his mechanics and drifted from pressure even when it wasn't there.  I think that could be fixed.

 

I like Daniels.  But wished I saw him play with a trial by fire game or two with little help, bad protection. Maybe he could do it.  But his pressure to sack ratio and insane % of running versus throwing when flushed out of the pocket makes me wonder some.  But with him I'd take my chances because of his speed.  Maye for me is #1 by half a peg or so.  Comfortable enough ahead where I don't equivocate.  Daniels #3.  Then a full peg down for McCarthy.  I like McCarthy though.  Seems like a good dude.  Smart.  And can throw off platorm.  Has good speed, too.

 

As for the recent Penix love here.  I haven't watched him that closely.  He is the only one who i haven't studied.  But in real time he seems to struggle when under duress.  That and his injuries makes me pause.  But he has a strong arm with upside.

 

I have watched a ton of Bo Nix.  I think he can be a 16-22 type Qb in the league.  He strikes me as a stronger armed Colt McCoy.  Master at first level throws in the flat -- getting the ball out quick.  His accuracy on the 2nd-3rd level I wonder about.  Him struggiling at the Senor Bowl makes me wonder.  Ditto the thought that he was very much a system QB at Oregon.  But if I didn't have a QB I'd take him in the 2nd round. 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 18 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

RG3 singing @Est.1974's song 😎

 

 

 

[Est.1974]

Damn right @Skinsinparadise 

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

100% yes.

 

We have Marcus Mariota otherwise with no guarantee we can get to a place to get McCarthy, Nix, etc. the pick at 2 has to be a QB.

 Thanks,

 

Another very hypothetical scenario, but IF the Vikings 100% want Maye and try to get to #2, and we do in fact have the Bears entrenched at #1 with Williams, I’m trying to engage with NE in a three team trade so that you could end up with the Vikings at #2 (Maye) and us at #3 (Daniels).

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Damn right @Skinsinparadise 

 Thanks,

 

Another very hypothetical scenario, but IF the Vikings 100% want Maye and try to get to #2, and we do in fact have the Bears entrenched at #1 with Williams, I’m trying to engage with NE in a three team trade so that you could end up with the Vikings at #2 (Maye) and us at #3 (Daniels).

Too much risk involved. New England needs a QB. I realize there is a lot of smoke saying otherwise but look at their roster. 

[Est.1974]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Too much risk involved. New England needs a QB. I realize there is a lot of smoke saying otherwise but look at their roster. 

I agree, if Minny want up for Maye it has to be a pre agreed 3 team trade scenario including NE. Otherwise, yep too much risk for us.

[SkinsFTW]

7 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I agree, if Minny want up for Maye it has to be a pre agreed 3 team trade scenario including NE. Otherwise, yep too much risk for us.

 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

Not to mention, NE fleeced us last year moving up to get Gonzo when we took Forbes. I don't want them to outsmart us again WITHOUT Belichick.

 

And I don't think they will because our FO has so far shown great competence.

[Est.1974]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Not to mention, NE fleeced us last year moving up to get Gonzo when we took Forbes. I don't want them to outsmart us again WITHOUT Belichick.

 

And I don't think they will because our FO has so far shown great competence.

They didn’t fleece us. We fleeced ourselves.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

They didn’t fleece us. We fleeced ourselves.

They outsmarted us. Same difference.

[SkinsFTW]

1 minute ago, Est.1974 said:

They didn’t fleece us. We fleeced ourselves.

 

They were so dumb that they could have obviously traded with NE.there, got the extra pick and still drafted hangman with the NE pick.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

17 minutes ago, KDawg said:

They outsmarted us. Same difference.

They outsmarted Ron. No big accomplishment

[Conn]

Didn’t the Patriots trade back, specifically landing right behind us, because they knew we loved Forbes and felt confident they would still get their guy Gonzalez right after we picked? I would say (for once) it’s less a story of another team directly outsmarting us and more a story of a) our poor player evaluation lingering from the Snyder era and b) our loose lips FO lingering from the Snyder era.
 

There’s an advantage to teams not knowing what you’re going to do and who you covet, something our current FO understands. 

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

They outsmarted Ron. No big accomplishment

 

36 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Not to mention, NE fleeced us last year moving up to get Gonzo when we took Forbes. I don't want them to outsmart us again WITHOUT Belichick.

 

And I don't think they will because our FO has so far shown great competence.

 

See the above.

[lovemaskins]

Interesting take from Hasslebeck on Drake Maye.  Measured perspective that he thinks Maye is by far the best prospect in the draft and Maye is a top prospect for the decade.  Wondering if NFL GMs agree and we may have to select between Williams and Daniels. 
 

 

[Warhead36]

32 minutes ago, Conn said:

Didn’t the Patriots trade back, specifically landing right behind us, because they knew we loved Forbes and felt confident they would still get their guy Gonzalez right after we picked? I would say (for once) it’s less a story of another team directly outsmarting us and more a story of a) our poor player evaluation lingering from the Snyder era and b) our loose lips FO lingering from the Snyder era.
 

There’s an advantage to teams not knowing what you’re going to do and who you covet, something our current FO understands. 

That's possible. There were media leaks coming out about our interest in Forbes and after the draft that little behind the scenes video thing showed Rivera talking about how he hopes Forbes is available.

 

The FO was brain dead. They obviously didn't do any research on Gonzalez otherwise he was a slam dunk pick over Forbes. In fairness it did look like Mayhew wasn't really 100% on board with Forbes. It was a pure Rivera/Del Rio pick.

[HigSkin]

1 hour ago, lovemaskins said:

Interesting take from Hasslebeck on Drake Maye.  Measured perspective that he thinks Maye is by far the best prospect in the draft and Maye is a top prospect for the decade.  Wondering if NFL GMs agree and we may have to select between Williams and Daniels. 
 

 

 

Good perspective and seen his opinion on many shows.  However, drafting Caleb Williams is really not a "have to".  You run to the podium if that happens.

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, lovemaskins said:

Interesting take from Hasslebeck on Drake Maye.  Measured perspective that he thinks Maye is by far the best prospect in the draft and Maye is a top prospect for the decade.  Wondering if NFL GMs agree and we may have to select between Williams and Daniels. 
 

 

Now ThatNFLchic is going to show up and post the Kurt Warner video again.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, lovemaskins said:

Interesting take from Hasslebeck on Drake Maye.  Measured perspective that he thinks Maye is by far the best prospect in the draft and Maye is a top prospect for the decade.  Wondering if NFL GMs agree and we may have to select between Williams and Daniels. 

 

Maye is one of the prospects of the decade, but so is Williams.  Williams is THE prospect of the decade.  He's better than Maye and basically has the status of "should go #1 in any class." The Bears are going to pick him, they aren't dumb.  Our only shot at getting Williams was to finish #1, or have Caleb himself force his way to us.  But that was never very likely to happen, as we are certainly no better than the Bears.  The sole advantage we have on them is that our coach and GM are in their first years, but a QB like Caleb gets everyone job security.

[clskinsfan]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The trial by fire 2023 season for Maye IMO is a double edge sword.  But I take it as more of a positive than negative.  I like that he played the season with the team on his shoulders.  I like that quote from a scout who said Maye single handily saved the whole NC coaching staff from getting fired.  Dealing with duress, trash at his feet.  No legit #1 Wr.  No legit #1 TE.  Poor blocking. And dealt with it at the ripe age of 21.

 

The downside is his season wasn't as good as the prior one.  And he rushed his mechanics and drifted from pressure even when it wasn't there.  I think that could be fixed.

 

I like Daniels.  But wished I saw him play with a trial by fire game or two with little help, bad protection. Maybe he could do it.  But his pressure to sack ratio and insane % of running versus throwing when flushed out of the pocket makes me wonder some.  But with him I'd take my chances because of his speed.  Maye for me is #1 by half a peg or so.  Comfortable enough ahead where I don't equivocate.  Daniels #3.  Then a full peg down for McCarthy.  I like McCarthy though.  Seems like a good dude.  Smart.  And can throw off platorm.  Has good speed, too.

 

As for the recent Penix love here.  I haven't watched him that closely.  He is the only one who i haven't studied.  But in real time he seems to struggle when under duress.  That and his injuries makes me pause.  But he has a strong arm with upside.

 

I have watched a ton of Bo Nix.  I think he can be a 16-22 type Qb in the league.  He strikes me as a stronger armed Colt McCoy.  Master at first level throws in the flat -- getting the ball out quick.  His accuracy on the 2nd-3rd level I wonder about.  Him struggiling at the Senor Bowl makes me wonder.  Ditto the thought that he was very much a system QB at Oregon.  But if I didn't have a QB I'd take him in the 2nd round. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah. People keep saying "but he had Tez Walker" trying to claim the no elite WR argument isnt valid. First of all Tez didnt play the entore first half of the season. Missed the first 6 games. And secondly Tez is a draftable WR because of Maye. Not the other way around. Maye is my number 2. By a lot. If we pick Daniels I wont blow a gasket over it. The guy can play. And his running ability will be exciting for sure. My main issue with him is his arm strength limits your ability to attack the entire field. And he basically does not throw on the run. If he is moving he his running. Also the lack of tight window throws and his sack rate are huge red flags in the NFL imo. Basically if he gets touched in the pocket he is going down. 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, KDawg said:

100% yes.

 

We have Marcus Mariota otherwise with no guarantee we can get to a place to get McCarthy, Nix, etc. the pick at 2 has to be a QB.

1000% yes. Yes. Yes. I don't even understand how people are arguing this. This isn't Trubisky in '17, Bortles, Danny Nickels etc, projecting out Trey Lance. It's basically the best top 3 in decades. This isn't a draft with a known crappy QB class, or a shallow group outside of the #1 overall, it's regarded as the best top 3 since '04 and honestly, even better than that one (at time of draft). It's not your typical top of QB class, it's a highly unusual one. Still, the hit rate for a starter there is sitting around 50-60%, and for a star is more like 25-40%, but that's the odds you play with, period. 

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

Paying a future Hall of Famer in his prime is worth whatever contract they end up getting.  Jefferson is a far more valuable asset at any price point because he's one of the best players in the league.  Guys like that usually don't hit free agency.  The contracts that are problematic are the ones for guys who set the market and they're like the 12th best player at their position, which is who usually hits free agency.  Kirk Cousins for 40 million a year.

I don't think we should be paying a WR 30+ mill a year in addition to giving them ridiculous trade compensation when we have to rebuild the entire roster from scratch and won't even know if we will have a QB we can believe in until late fall '24. I'd rather keep the contracts reasonable while we figure things out, Addison is a very good receiver already, blue chip superstar? I doubt it. But he had a fantastic 2023, and is cost controlled for four more years. I prefer that. If we want to go after Jefferson in '25, or Chase in '26 when we know better what we have at QB? Sure, but right now, when we don't, I'd prefer to figure things out, and avoid giving anyone tons of trade comp AND spending enormous free agency money. But you make a nice argument about value versus the mid tier FA's that are overpaid, but elite WR's often due make it to free agency, and if I'm gonna do a cap busting deal, I'd rather do that, than do that+send draft capital to get said player a year early. 

[Warhead36]

27 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. People keep saying "but he had Tez Walker" trying to claim the no elite WR argument isnt valid. First of all Tez didnt play the entore first half of the season. Missed the first 6 games. And secondly Tez is a draftable WR because of Maye. Not the other way around. Maye is my number 2. By a lot. If we pick Daniels I wont blow a gasket over it. The guy can play. And his running ability will be exciting for sure. My main issue with him is his arm strength limits your ability to attack the entire field. And he basically does not throw on the run. If he is moving he his running. Also the lack of tight window throws and his sack rate are huge red flags in the NFL imo. Basically if he gets touched in the pocket he is going down. 

Tez Walker is booty lol. I'm not even sure he's picked on day 2. And I don't think any other Tar Heel on offense is worth drafting at all.

 

Its as simple as just looking at the bowl games. All 3 opted out. USC and LSU didn't miss a beat offensively with backup QBs. UNC on the other hand without Maye got waxed by freaking WVU and looked horrendous on offense.

[Dah-Dee]

30 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. People keep saying "but he had Tez Walker" trying to claim the no elite WR argument isnt valid. First of all Tez didnt play the entore first half of the season. Missed the first 6 games. And secondly Tez is a draftable WR because of Maye. Not the other way around. Maye is my number 2. By a lot. If we pick Daniels I wont blow a gasket over it. The guy can play. And his running ability will be exciting for sure. My main issue with him is his arm strength limits your ability to attack the entire field. And he basically does not throw on the run. If he is moving he his running. Also the lack of tight window throws and his sack rate are huge red flags in the NFL imo. Basically if he gets touched in the pocket he is going down. 

 

You just reminded me of a weird stat chart I saw recently, not sure if it was here or elsewhere, but it showed the 2023 pressure-to-sack rates for top 6 QBs, and The Big Three had the highest rates, quite a bit higher than the others. Daniels was at 20.2% for last year (not good, like you said), but Maye was pretty much just as bad, at 19.6%. Not sure what all that means, but it was surprising to see Maye with a ratio that high.