The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

20 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Go to first unread post.... then click ahead to the 2nd to most recent page. The new normal way to peruse this thread

 

I get the perception Maye's stock kinda seems to be dropping. I am happy to see it if true since there should NEVER be crystal clear consensus on a crapshoot dart throw. I am sticking to my guns predicting Caleb wont be the best QB in this class - nothing against him its just there is a solid pool of competition that may well end up better.

 

Eh, there may be some perception of his stock dropping with some draftnicks, but what the teams think is, as usual, not really clear. We had some reporters at the combine saying they've talked to FO people from lots of teams and the vast majority of them have Maye over Daniels at 2. Then we have other reporters saying they've heard the opposite.

 

Bottom line is that at this point in the process everything is purely for entertainment value, nothing more. Every rumor, report, and draft board has to be taken with several enormous grains of salt.

[clskinsfan]

13 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

Beyond that, it's throwing darts while blindfolded for rounds 3 and 4

Really nice work Dog. I appreciate it. 

2 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Evaluating a QB pre draft is one thing. The success of that QB, once in the league, becomes a more complex discussion also driven by the circumstances of the team they land with, coaching staff, roster strength etc.

I agree with this. But it also proves why picking first round blue chip QB's is so important. Top ten QB's have a 38% hit rate according to @DogofWar1 research. What makes that incredible is top 10 QB's are going to to horrible teams. Hence the reason they are picked top ten. 

[Est.1974]

this is one of points Caleb Williams noted, that the Bears aren’t necessarily a ‘horrible’ team due to them having the #1 pick via trade

 

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

What makes that incredible is top 10 QB's are going to to horrible teams. Hence the reason they are picked top ten. 

Edited March 7 by Est.1974

[mistertim]

18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

 

I agree with this. But it also proves why picking first round blue chip QB's is so important. Top ten QB's have a 38% hit rate according to @DogofWar1 research. What makes that incredible is top 10 QB's are going to to horrible teams. Hence the reason they are picked top ten. 

 

Yeah picking a QB high in the 1st is sort of like having pocket queens in holdem. It doesn't guarantee you a win, but it certainly gives you a huge advantage.

[Skinsinparadise]

Giants reporter

 

https://sny.tv/articles/giants-mailbag-j-j-mccarthy-nfl-draft

 

Do you think they’ll go after a veteran quarterback like Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson or Jameis Winston? -- @DanTheMan57

That’s the route they’d take if they believed in Daniel Jones as much as they say publicly. But that’s simply not the case. The player the Giants paid is not the one they have now. Jones’ resume is littered with medical red flags (two neck injuries, knee surgery). He’s not someone you can rely on or trust to play 17 (maybe 18 soon) games. It became very clear in Indianapolis that Schoen is ready to draft his guy — either at No. 6, or by trading up.

Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are the two I heard linked to New York the most. Maye, specifically, they’re high on. The problem is that they’re likely to go some variation of No. 2 and 3 after the Bears take Caleb Williams. The Giants' only hope of landing one is if the Patriots pivot away from the quarterbacks and take phenom Marvin Harrison Jr. third overall. That would allow the Giants to move up to No. 4 (Cardinals).

I’m not sure I’d go this route, but there were more than a few rumblings at the combine tying J.J. McCarthy to the Giants. There’s just nothing about the Michigan quarterback I personally find tantalizing. Those I touched base with were mixed, too — both draft analysis and league personnel. We’ll see.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

Russini with Sheehan yesterday talked about challenges as a reporter, trying to discern between what is true and what is a team needing to use you as a mouth piece to achieve something.

 

Hate to be a conspirator but screw it.  What if Chris Simms, son of Phil Simms who played for the Giants is out there slinging shade on Maye, in hopes he drops to NY?

 

Sounds far fetched but the Russini thing was fascinating and it goes on a lot.  Case in point, the Bears chatter is now that people in the org are torn on keeping Fields.  Schefter said that but seems they are trying to drive up interest in Fields by saying that. 

 

It's possible but I doubt it.  Simms whether its for legit reasons or click bait historically likes to crap on a QB that mostly gets love elsewhere and also tout a QB that doesn't get much drattnik love and gets a ton of attention for doing this.    He does it for other spots too but Qb brings him the attention.

 

I have read for months the Giants have a draft crush on Maye.  Heck i was at the Washington-Giants game at Fedex where a Giants fan sitting behind me was rooting for a Giants loss hoping for Maye and lol he was entertaining because he shared his distaste for how Ron was blowing the game to Devito.

 

Daboll did well relatively speaking with Jones in season 1.  He coached Josh Allen previously.  Big dudes who can run.  I can see Daboll seeing Drake Maye as appealing.

 

I said months ago I dont want to see Daniels or Maye in NY.  I want them stuck in QB purgatory.

Edited March 7 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

34 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah picking a QB high in the 1st is sort of like having pocket queens in holdem. It doesn't guarantee you a win, but it certainly gives you a huge advantage.

And to continue the gambling analogies, if you do hit on a franchise QB, its like playing Blackjack and having an Ace as one of your starting cards every hand. You won't win em all, but man you'll win a lot.

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's possible but I doubt it.  Simms whether its for legit reasons or click bait historically likes to crap on a QB that mostly gets love elsewhere and also tout a QB that doesn't get much drattnik love and gets a ton of attention for doing this.    He does it for other spots too but Qb brings him the attention.

 

I have read for months the Giants have a draft crush on Maye.  Heck i was at the Washington-Giants game at Fedex where a Giants fan sitting behind me was rooting for a Giants loss hoping for Maye and lol he was entertaining because he shared his distaste for how Ron was blowing the game to Devito.

 

Daboll did well relatively speaking with Jones in season 1.  He coached Josh Allen previously.  Big dudes who can run.  I can see Daboll seeing Drake Maye as appealing.

 

I said months ago I dont want to see Daniels or Maye in NY.  I want them stuck in QB purgatory.

Maye in NY would be a nightmare. We can't even beat the likes of Daniel Jones and Tommy Devito. Maye will own us for the next decade and it won't be pretty.

[mistertim]

I see talk about the Pats trading down, but what exactly are they going to do about QB? I guess they could make a play for Kirk or Wilson, but that's still just kicking the can down the road for a couple of years at best. Mac Jones is not only a poor QB but he's apparently a bit of a jackwagon and on the outs with the team from a personal standpoint as well so I have a hard time seeing them run it back with him.

[illone]

Crossing my fingers that Maye goes to the Giants. If he plays right away he will challenge Howell’s sack numbers from last season and ill be here for it, esp Whitt adding to those numbers. 
 

The best outcome would be them trading a pile of picks to move up to get him. That would be even more glorious. 

[woodpecker]

7 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I see talk about the Pats trading down, but what exactly are they going to do about QB? I guess they could make a play for Kirk or Wilson, but that's still just kicking the can down the road for a couple of years at best. Mac Jones is not only a poor QB but he's apparently a bit of a jackwagon and on the outs with the team from a personal standpoint as well so I have a hard time seeing them run it back with him.

Similar situation to us, but the big difference is they don’t have their choice of two guys like we do. They are stuck with which ever of the three falls. So if there’s one of the three that they don’t think is good, it wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world to trade out and collect the draft capital bounty. Build up the roster, bring back Brissett as a stopgap, and draft a 2nd tier QB to develop like Nix. One things for sure… Mac Jones is NOT the answer.

[mistertim]

12 minutes ago, woodpecker said:

Similar situation to us, but the big difference is they don’t have their choice of two guys like we do. They are stuck with which ever of the three falls. So if there’s one of the three that they don’t think is good, it wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world to trade out and collect the draft capital bounty. Build up the roster, bring back Brissett as a stopgap, and draft a 2nd tier QB to develop like Nix. One things for sure… Mac Jones is NOT the answer.

 

True, they'll actually need to have a high enough grade on Daniels or Maye. I suppose if they legitimately don't like the guy who falls to them then they could trade back but, like us, they may not have another chance to draft a top level QB prospect in a strong QB class again for a while. So even if they see the guy who falls to them as a top 10 level pick but not top 3, I wouldn't be surprised if they still took him.

 

There's always the possibility that they really like a guy like McCarthy. But with him (reportedly, still taking it with a grain of salt) rising up the draft boards then there's certainly a chance that they may miss on him too if they trade back any further than 6. So in that case maybe the Giants would be the ideal trade partner if they really love both Maye and Daniels enough to give up a haul to move to 3.

[ThatNFLChick]

If Maye falls to 3 maybe the Giants try to trade up if they really love him?

 

 

Edited March 7 by ThatNFLChick

[mistertim]

How many grains of salt to take with every single "rumor" right now:

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

If that's truly the case with the Pats, and our guy ends up being Maye, we should absolutely attempt to flip the picks with them. 

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If that's truly the case with the Pats, and our guy ends up being Maye, we should absolutely attempt to flip the picks with them. 

 

lol based on what, a pinky swear that they actually want Daniels? What if we love Maye and think they want Daniels but they're bull****ting?

[The Consigliere]

21 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Because other positions don't have busts right?

And if you're going to make an aggressive argument you probably shouldn't leave supporting evidence on the floor. How do you forget the most maligned and hated QB of the early first round in the 1990's? Jeff George

 

What about Klingler? Kerry Collins? Ryan Leaf, Cade McCown, and Boat Bum Culpepper (one of my fav QB prospects from the late 1990s). 

 

It's not providing news or analysis, to walk in the front door with a truism? Drafting QB's is hard, or that, a huge percentage of picks bust. That's just reality. 

 

What baffles me is the aversion to it. Why? The Redskins/WFT have used top end draft capital on a QB twice in my 49 year old life, I don't think you even reach 3 times until you go back to the days of John F Kennedy. The Jags have done it 3 times in the last decade. Like? If you find drafting QB's relatively high in round 1, some sketchy business, our team has been almost certainly, the least involved of any football team, bar none, in going after QB's high in round 1 going back decades. The only team I can think of that may have done it less is probably Dallas, largely because they repeatedly hit on franchise guys like Staubach, Danny White, Tony Romo, and Dak Prescott way way out there on draft day or undrafted entirely (Romo) but really, its damn hard to find a team that's used less draft capital at the position than Washington, historically, and not surprisingly, our QB play has been horse ---- for most of our history with the periodic exceptions of trades to fix the problems that developed because we refused to draft and develop quality QB prospects in the first place. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

lol based on what, a pinky swear that they actually want Daniels? What if we love Maye and think they want Daniels but they're bull****ting?

 

Oh yeah, you do not trade with them unless they tell you who they're picking. I have to imagine that always happens, and a team's reputational value could be destroyed if they lied. These guys are all friends/colleagues, and I can't see anyone pulling that move.

 

What would need to happen is for the Pats to think we could trade our pick back. If they believe there are multiple suitors, then they could see the value in trading for #2 even if they know we like Maye. It's gamesmanship, but it would make sense.

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Oh yeah, you do not trade with them unless they tell you who they're picking. I have to imagine that always happens, and a team's reputational value could be destroyed if they lied. These guys are all friends/colleagues, and I can't see anyone pulling that move.

 

What would need to happen is for the Pats to think we could trade our pick back. If they believe there are multiple suitors, then they could see the value in trading for #2 even if they know we like Maye. It's gamesmanship, but it would make sense.

 

None of that stuff makes sense in the real world. That's why all this convoluted nonsense pretty much never happens when draft day rolls around. If we're at 2, and we like a QB at 2, we're going to take a QB at 2. They're not going to try and get cute and then potentially end up in a disaster situation.

Edited March 7 by mistertim

[The Consigliere]

21 hours ago, veteranskinsfan said:

My point here is just to curb some of the enthusiasm.  If Peters makes a wrong decision at quarterback how will this fan base react?  How will this Board

react?  Of course he makes the right pick at quarterback then the fan base and this Board will be riding a super high.  The draft in many ways is a crap shoot.

All teams are forced to take the good with the bad.  Historically our franchise has been bad when it comes to picking quarterbacks in the first round.

Who cares? The fan base has been pounded into the ground for thirty one years running. If we draft a QB bust, who gives a ----? Try again. Why is this so freaking hard for people? The Jets drafted busts with Sanchez, Darnold, and Wilson? Do you think if they had tanked their way to the 2nd pick, they'd raft a freaking DL or OL instead? Hell no. When the Jags drafted Bortles and Gabbert in the first half of the last decade do you think they were scared of Lawrence? Hell no. the Bengals after Carson Palmer hunted high and low, suffered with Dalton, and when Burrow fell into their lap they pulled the trigger. The poor Bills who failed miserably to replace Jim Kelley for twenty years, the nadir being the idiotic EJ Manuel pick a decade ago, were not scared to pull the trigger, they took a giant swing at the highest risk QB in the '18 class, Josh Allen, The Browns spent all of the previous decade drafting QB's over and over again and screwing up. The Bears took Trubisky, and Fields, missed both, and are taking a big swing on Caleb. The Texans nailed Watson, traded him when he blew up his career for lots of goodies after he was reinstated and immediately took another big swing with stroud. The Colts did the same with Richardson, after Luck retired on him, the Cardinals missed badly with Rosen, so traded him and tried again with Kyler.

 

You don't run away from this, you try again. What's your plan? 1993-2023 stupidity for another decade, because what, that was fun? Making a run once every four years, before sinking below the surface yet again for another 3 years immediately after in 99, '05/'07, '12, '15, '20  etc. Did anyone enjoy the past 30 years? Literally never being relevant EVER? 

 

Drafting a bust QB does not scare me in the least. Failing to even try to get a franchise QB, now that, scares the ---- out of me. That's been our blueprint for decades and it is an absolute guarantee for failure. 

[DogofWar1]

Do. Not. Get. Cute. With. The. Damn. Pick.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

11 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

None of that stuff makes sense in the real world. That's why all this convoluted nonsense pretty much never happens when draft day rolls around. If we're at 2, and we like a QB at 2, we're going to take a QB at 2. They're not going to try and get cute and then potentially end up in a disaster situation.

 

What's the difference, then, in the talk about Commanders and Bears swapping picks? I assume it's not for the Bears to then trade down from 2 (certainly possible, but unlikely). It would be so Washington could get Caleb, and Chicago could get Maye or Daniels. For that exchange to happen, they need to know who we are taking, and they need to be cool with taking someone else. We need to trade to #1 to secure our guy, so nobody else trades with Chicago to do so.

 

Peters: We'll offer #36 and #40 to swap #1 and #2 so we can draft Caleb.

Chicago: Okay, that sounds good. Deal.

or

Chicago: No, we want Caleb, thanks but no thanks. It will take a lot more than that for us to move off our main guy. 

 

That's the same scenario I'm talking about with #2/#3. Is it likely? Probably not. But it isn't off the table. 

 

NE: We'll offer you #34 for swapping #3 and #2, so we can come get Daniels.

Peters: Cool, that's a fair deal, done.

or

Peters: No thank you. That isn't enough, because Daniels is our guy. 

Edited March 7 by JamesMadisonSkins

[mistertim]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

What's the difference, then, in the talk about Commanders and Bears swapping picks? I assume it's not for the Bears to then trade down from 2 (certainly possible, but unlikely). It would be so Washington could get Caleb, and Chicago could get Maye or Daniels. For that exchange to happen, they need to know who we are taking, and they need to be cool with taking someone else. We need to trade to #1 to secure our guy, so nobody else trades with Chicago to do so.

 

That's the same scenario I'm talking about with #2/#3. Is it likely? Probably not. But it isn't off the table. 

 

There's not much difference because neither of them is going to happen. If the Bears love Williams then they're no more likely to try and get cute with that pick and tempt fate than we are.

 

So yes, it's "possible", but a meteor hitting the stage in the middle of the draft is also "possible".

[Est.1974]

49 minutes ago, illone said:

Crossing my fingers that Maye goes to the Giants. If he plays right away he will challenge Howell’s sack numbers from last season and ill be here for it, esp Whitt adding to those numbers. 
 

The best outcome would be them trading a pile of picks to move up to get him. That would be even more glorious. 

Yep. I see them being the strongest candidates to take Maye, by trade up included.

[Llevron]

18 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

lol based on what, a pinky swear that they actually want Daniels? What if we love Maye and think they want Daniels but they're bull****ting?

 

We should be calling them and telling them we don't want either of them and we are trading out and they have a shot if they wanna come up. 

 

I think its bull****, but unless we love a guy we should be doing it anyway. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

We should be calling them and telling them we don't want either of them and we are trading out and they have a shot if they wanna come up. 

 

I think its bull****, but unless we love a guy we should be doing it anyway. 

 

peters: Hey NE, we're analyzing all our options and want to know who might be interested in the #2 pick. We know you all love some of these QBs, just curious to know what package you'd offer.

NE: Hey, yeah, we actually have our eyes on one guy we really like. Think we'd be willing to give you #34, but not much more than that.

Peters: Cool, thanks, we'll be in touch, likely on draft day since we are planning to wait until then to make a deal if we do anything. 

NE: Cool

 

Draft day:

Peters: Hey NE, have a couple offers for #2, still debating what to do. Who would you all be coming up for? Daniels or Maye? It'll impact who and where we trade back to, since we have some guys we still want to target.

NE: If we swap, we're coming up for Daniels.. 

Peters: Great, I think we have a deal, but let me check back with these other teams first.

 

I'm enjoying these fake dialogues haha. But I have to imagine that's roughly how this conversation goes with almost every team in the Top 10 as they all figure out what could unfold on draft day. We already know these things happen.

Edited March 7 by JamesMadisonSkins