The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

That dude can eat poop.

[DogofWar1]

Bruce Allen took my 20's and I want them back.

 

As far as I'm concerned Peters gets at least 2 big swings and misses.

[Est.1974]

10 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Bruce Allen took my 20's and I want them back.

 

As far as I'm concerned Peters gets at least 2 big swings and misses.

Yeah Peters can’t be one and done based on this draft alone. That’s crazy talk. We got to stick with him.

[BayouBrave86]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

36 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Bruce Allen took my 20's and I want them back.

 

As far as I'm concerned Peters gets at least 2 big swings and misses.

 

I wanted Peters well before we got him, that was my guy on the GM thread.  Love the hire.

 

He will get a pass for me if he trades up for Caleb and Caleb fails.  Drafts Maye and Maye fails.  Drafts Daniels and Daniels fails.  Drafts McCarthy and McCarthy fails.

 

So he's got a lot of rope for me on QB.

 

But if he does something wildly unexpected like trade down and take Nix or Penix either he better nail that pick or the QBs he passes over better suck -- otherwise he would be one and done for me, it would be a bigger swing miss in my book than anything move that Cerrato or Bruce made.  Yes Cerrato and Bruce made expensive moves as for FA or draft capital that were awful.  But they didn't have a touted QB right at their pick when picking #2 when they needed a QB and they decided to skip that ride to escape QB purgatory.

 

But I got no fear that happens, 99% just about of the buzz is they are taking a QB at 2.

Edited March 6 by Skinsinparadise

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

if he trades up for Caleb

Seeing a little more smoke on this today. Probably just smoke. But Sikkema kind of kicked off this latest round of trade up talk. I think it really depends on Caleb at this point. If he refuses to play for Chicago (ala Manning) we are probably the most likely team to land him. But like I said it is mostly just junk I think. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/washington-commanders-trade-draft-rumor-report-caleb-williams-chicago-bears

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, veteranskinsfan said:

Food for Thought- - - There have been 38 first round quarterbacks who have made a total of 1909 starts in the NFL.

Their combined record is 1034 wins 1035 losses and 7 ties.  Only one of these quarterbacks has led their team to the Super Bowl- Mahomes.

 

So how many Mahomes are there is this draft?

It's a weak argument, a really weak argument because when you comb through the data, your trying to find sustained success right? Contention right? Not one off's. 80-85% of Conference Title Game participants are typically franchise QB's and most though not all of them, were taken in round 1, typically high in round 1. Exceptions? For sure, over the past 35 years, those perennial contenders that were not a part of that trend line? Joe Montana, later Brett Favre, the Bucs and Ravens QB's of the '99-'02 era, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Brady. 

 

Basically 80-85% of those contenders had a franchise guy, and of the franchise guys the vast majority were top end selections, but there were exceptions, typically the HOF sort that slipped through, Montana in the eighties, Favre in the '90's and aughts, Brees in the Aughts and last decade (missed round 1 by 1 selection), Wilson this decade, and Brady for two decades. Basically 5 guys the past 45 years not including Theismann, and Boomer etc. 

 

The Top End picks:

John Elway

Jim Kelley

Dan Marino

Steve Young

Troy Aikman

Peyton Manning

Ben Roth

Eli Manning

Matt Ryan

Matt Stafford

Cam Newton

Patrick Mahomes

Josh Allen

Joe Burrow

 

and then whomever I forgot to mention.

 

What do the conference championship contenders look like these days? 

 

In the AFC?

Josh Allen-1st Rounder, Aaron Rodgers-1st Rounder, Lamar Jackson 1st rounder, Joe Burrow 1st rounder, Patrick Mahomes 1st rounder, if the Chargers ever get their ---- together, 1st rounder, Houston is suddenly competitive? Why? Best QB of the '23 class.

 

All the contenders have franchise guy 1st rounders. All of them. Any exceptions? Not really. Even the Dolphins team that looked great early on but flamed out have a top 5 pick QB, the Jags wannabe side has a #1 overall QB first rounder, Tennessee, which had a nice squad the past decade could never get quite over, why? Well the QB of course, and when you consider that and turn the page to the NFC, you see the very same problem.....

 

NFC Contenders:

The niners have now lost 3 super bowls in a decade, and come close but flamed out every time. Why? The QB of course, nobody appears intent in sending Kap, Garoppolo or Purdy to the Hall any time soon. Why is the NFC regarded as wide open? Pretty simple, all those great, likely HOF QB's to pop out of drafts in the post Andrew Luck era? Every single one of them is in the AFC. The best of the NFC options include blue hairs like Matt Ryan now retired and Matt Stafford about to be retired, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray's fading esteem, Jordan Love's overhyporama, Jared Goff's revisionism, Dak Prescott and Hurts not convincing many.

 

It really is pretty simple. You got a QB, or you're a question mark. Nobody is arguing there's a Patrick Mahomes in this draft or any draft, but it's more than reasonable that you have no chance at all, none at all, without at least something legit good at the position, and the most reliable way of doing that is using high end draft capital in a strong QB draft like this one. In just the last five years alone Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston, and San Diego until this year have climbed straight out of the dung heap into playoff teams simply after hitting on QB up high in good QB prospect drafts. This is our chance. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Seeing a little more smoke on this today. Probably just smoke. But Sikkema kind of kicked off this latest round of trade up talk. I think it really depends on Caleb at this point. If he refuses to play for Chicago (ala Manning) we are probably the most likely team to land him. But like I said it is mostly just junk I think. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/washington-commanders-trade-draft-rumor-report-caleb-williams-chicago-bears

 

Sikkema has hit multiple times trading up for Caleb.  Way too much noise for me in the opposite direction that they aren't trading the pick for me to buy into it.   Also is another segment Sikkema said Washington would want to do it but the Bears from what he hears won't want to trade down.

[DogofWar1]

There's smoke bc someone wants there to be smoke.

 

But I think you'll have to pry that 1st pick from the Bears' cold dead hands.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

There's smoke bc someone wants there to be smoke.

 

But I think you'll have to pry that 1st pick from the Bears' cold dead hands.

The pick wont do them any good if they player they pick refuses to play for them. They could do something like the Manning deal I guess. 

[DogofWar1]

Are there any reports of note that Caleb is actually considering Eli-ing the Bears?

 

I've heard rumors, and that "only showing medical records to certain teams" thing briefly caused some hubbub but since then it's been pretty business as usual without any real even rumors of an Eli.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Some people really like Chris Simms QB rankings (and supposedly he changes them wildly as he gets closer to the draft).

 

Tier 1

Caleb Williams

Tier 2 (Usual #1 overall pick in non-Caleb Williams years)

Jayden Daniels

Tier 3 (Franchise Starters, so in a down QB year could be the top QB pick)

Bo Nix

Michael Penix

JJ McCarthy

Tier 4 (Talented Project)

Drake Maye

 

He has Maye as his #6 QB. He thinks for every 1 good Maye throw that shows talent, there are 5 other throws that are atrocious. He says he's got talent but then makes it sound like he's barely a prospect. He thinks he's clearly the worst pocket passer in the draft. He thinks his mechanics are about as uncoordinated and disjointed as you can get. The way he's saying this makes it sound like he thinks Maye isn't even a Day 2 pick either, like he's borderline undraftable. He says Maye isn't in the same stratosphere as any of his Top 5 QB's.

 

P.S. I disagree with his rankings considerably. I think some of his positives for some QB's are listed as negatives for other QB's, and vice versa. Inconsistent.

Edited March 6 by Always A Commander Never A Captain

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Are there any reports of note that Caleb is actually considering Eli-ing the Bears?

 

I've heard rumors, and that "only showing medical records to certain teams" thing briefly caused some hubbub but since then it's been pretty business as usual without any real even rumors of an Eli.

No not really. Just some bs smoke on Twitter is all. He straight up said he is excited to play for whoever drafts him. 

[Redd]

Never liked the Rivera hire. As the years go by you see Rivera’s success got worse on Cam Newtons decline.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Some people really like Chris Simms QB rankings (and supposedly he changes them wildly as he gets closer to the draft).

 

Tier 1

Caleb Williams

Tier 2 (Usual #1 overall pick in non-Caleb Williams years)

Jayden Daniels

Tier 3 (Franchise Starters, so in a down QB year could be the top QB pick)

Bo Nix

Michael Penix

JJ McCarthy

Tier 4 (Talented Project)

Drake Maye

 

He has Maye as his #6 QB. He thinks for every 1 good Maye throw that shows talent, there are 5 other throws that are atrocious. He says he's got talent but then makes it sound like he's barely a prospect. He thinks he's clearly the worst pocket passer in the draft. He thinks his mechanics are about as uncoordinated and disjointed as you can get. The way he's saying this makes it sound like he thinks Maye isn't even a Day 2 pick either, like he's borderline undraftable. He says Maye isn't in the same stratosphere as any of his Top 5 QB's.

 

P.S. I disagree with his rankings considerably. I think some of his positives for some QB's are listed as negatives for other QB's, and vice versa. Inconsistent.

Simms has been hit and miss. Here are his rankings by year:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-YLY_WAVWSDm4W0PpFIQEvZ1QoFYOprLjo8rG_UWzQo/edit?pli=1#gid=1462134302

 

2023	1	C.J. Stroud	1
	2	Bryce Young	2
	3	Hendon Hooker	2
	4	Anthony Richardson	3
	5	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	4
	6	Will Levis	4
2022	1	Matt Corral
	2	Malik Willis
	3	Kenny Pickett
	4	Sam Howell
	5	Desmond Ridder
	6	N/A
2021	1	Zach Wilson
	2	Trevor Lawerence
	3	Mac Jones
	4	Kellen Mond
	5	Justin Fields
	6	Trey Lance
2020	1	Joe Burrow
	2	Justin Herbert
	3	Jordan Love
	4	Tua Tagovailoa
	5	Jacob Eason
	6	N/A
2019	1	Kyler Murray
	2	Drew Lock
	3	Dwayne Haskins
	4	Ryan Finely
	5	Jarrett Stidham
	6	Daniel Jones
2018	1	Josh Allen
	2	Josh Rosen
	3	Baker Mayfield
	4	Lamar Jackson
	5	Sam Darnold
	6	N/A

 

 

[illone]

3 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Some people really like Chris Simms QB rankings (and supposedly he changes them wildly as he gets closer to the draft).

 

P.S. I disagree with his rankings considerably. I think some of his positives for some QB's are listed as negatives for other QB's, and vice versa. Inconsistent.

 

 

Keep in mind Chrissy Simms has access to worlds finest marijuana, and he doesnt shy from consuming said stash.

 

Nothing against a little whacky tobacky, but it's worth noting when he puts Bo Nix ahead of Maye and JJ.

 

That's some goood shiz. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I like both but definitely in the Maye > Daniels camp.  But this firmly cements me in the Maye camp.   Does anyone have worst instincts at QB than Ron?

 

 

 

[DogofWar1]

I need to watch these full segments when people say Daniels has "mobility" and try and figure out how they're using it.

 

Because yes he's very mobile but not in the way most people evaluating QBs usually use "mobility."  He doesn't throw on the run often at all.  He throws from the pocket or runs it, and only rarely rolls out and extends the play for throws.  Doesn't mean he can't, but when I think of "mobility" I usually think of "play extension" not "turns into a fighter jet and goes supersonic."

[Skinsinparadise]

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

3 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

Bortles was third overall not 8. 

Bortles is a pretty good physical comparison to Drake Maye actually. He is also a good comparison to Andrew Luck physically though too. Let’s hope he can handle the mental side of the game.
 

Another player I thought of that I think is a good comparison that I haven’t heard mention yet is Dante Culpepper.

Edited March 6 by Sacks 'n' Stuff

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

Are there any reports of note that Caleb is actually considering Eli-ing the Bears?

 

There are reports from Caleb himself saying he'd be excited to go to CHI.

[Conn]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Simms has been hit and miss. Here are his rankings by year:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-YLY_WAVWSDm4W0PpFIQEvZ1QoFYOprLjo8rG_UWzQo/edit?pli=1#gid=1462134302

 

 

2023	1	C.J. Stroud	1
	2	Bryce Young	2
	3	Hendon Hooker	2
	4	Anthony Richardson	3
	5	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	4
	6	Will Levis	4
2022	1	Matt Corral
	2	Malik Willis
	3	Kenny Pickett
	4	Sam Howell
	5	Desmond Ridder
	6	N/A
2021	1	Zach Wilson
	2	Trevor Lawerence
	3	Mac Jones
	4	Kellen Mond
	5	Justin Fields
	6	Trey Lance
2020	1	Joe Burrow
	2	Justin Herbert
	3	Jordan Love
	4	Tua Tagovailoa
	5	Jacob Eason
	6	N/A
2019	1	Kyler Murray
	2	Drew Lock
	3	Dwayne Haskins
	4	Ryan Finely
	5	Jarrett Stidham
	6	Daniel Jones
2018	1	Josh Allen
	2	Josh Rosen
	3	Baker Mayfield
	4	Lamar Jackson
	5	Sam Darnold
	6	N/A

 

 

So he may as well pull names out of a hat over a long period of time, and isn’t even consistent in what traits he values from year to year. 
 

Moving on.

[CommanderInTheRye]

Well folks if there were any lingering doubts about who we should draft with the second pick they're all gone now.

 

Ron "Reverse Barometer" Rivera has spoken...

 

 

 

 

 

We couldn't have asked for a better reccomendation to draft Drake Maye.

 

Here's looking at you, kid!

 

 

 

 

Edited March 6 by CommanderInTheRye

[OtisDriftwood25]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Simms has been hit and miss. Here are his rankings by year:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-YLY_WAVWSDm4W0PpFIQEvZ1QoFYOprLjo8rG_UWzQo/edit?pli=1#gid=1462134302

 

 

2023	1	C.J. Stroud	1
	2	Bryce Young	2
	3	Hendon Hooker	2
	4	Anthony Richardson	3
	5	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	4
	6	Will Levis	4
2022	1	Matt Corral
	2	Malik Willis
	3	Kenny Pickett
	4	Sam Howell
	5	Desmond Ridder
	6	N/A
2021	1	Zach Wilson
	2	Trevor Lawerence
	3	Mac Jones
	4	Kellen Mond
	5	Justin Fields
	6	Trey Lance
2020	1	Joe Burrow
	2	Justin Herbert
	3	Jordan Love
	4	Tua Tagovailoa
	5	Jacob Eason
	6	N/A
2019	1	Kyler Murray
	2	Drew Lock
	3	Dwayne Haskins
	4	Ryan Finely
	5	Jarrett Stidham
	6	Daniel Jones
2018	1	Josh Allen
	2	Josh Rosen
	3	Baker Mayfield
	4	Lamar Jackson
	5	Sam Darnold
	6	N/A

 

 

That list is better than most. Especially he got Allen, Burrow and Stroud completely right. Maye could be the 2018 Sam Darnold. 

Edited March 6 by OtisDriftwood25