The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[CapsSkins]

If we draft Daniels I will definitely root for him but I'm not going to be too excited unless he can finish a season healthy. I can see Haloti Ngata snapping RG3's leg in my head if I close my eyes - same with the hit that ended Robert's starting career in Cleveland.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

2 minutes ago, Kalu44 said:

 

Technically, the Skins can do the same thing. They can trade down to #3 with the Pats (for their preference of QB), then trade out of the 3rd pick (if someone covets MH or the 3rd QB taken). In that scenario, we grab a TON of picks and someone like JJ at #8. There is big risk there if JJ is not available with a trade down - but if they like Howell, maybe not so much risk...

What a disaster it would be to come into this kind of draft with the #2 pick and leave with no blue chip QB, forced to run it back with Howell. I don't care if they got 500 picks back

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

7 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

What a disaster it would be to come into this kind of draft with the #2 pick and leave with no blue chip QB, forced to run it back with Howell. I don't care if they got 500 picks back

Oh, you lie. 500 picks would be insane.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1. Stay at 2, draft Maye or Daniels

2. Swap with Pats, draft Maye or Daniels

3. Trade with the Cards, draft Maye/Daniels/McCarthy

4. Trade with Atlanta, draft McCarthy

 

Any of those could be offers within the Top 10. Idk if we entertain any of them and simply just take our QB. Guess it depends on what's on the table.

FWIW, I am not sure Atlanta has enough for us to entertain discussions because we might feel #8 is too far removed to guarantee one of the Top 3 or 4 guys.

[ThatNFLChick]

I listened to Craig Hoffman (the videos are posted on YT). He's been talking to writers for the Ringer, the Athetic, etc. I don't know who some of them are tbh. Jordan Reid from ESPN has Maye over Daniels, Matt Miller from NFL has Daniels over Maye.

 

I am ready for some real combine info like how interviews went, which teams seemed to really gravitate towards which players, etc.

 

 

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Drafting high increases your odds.  Drafting high in a good QB draft increases your odds even futher.  Punting to another season where the perception is the class isn't as good and you likely aren't picking as high -- that would be old school Redskins-Commanders.  It would be going on that same old road and hoping for a better outcome. 

 

Yep. I'll repeat and even expand on the research I did.

 

Over the last 25 drafts, there have been seven strong QB draft classes. Now this is subjective, but I consider a QB class strong if at least three are taken in the top 10. These drafts are: 1999, 2004, 2012, 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2023.

 

The hit rate for QBs taken #1:

 

5/6*(Eli, Luck, Mayfield, Burrow, Lawrence are hits. Couch bust. Young too early to tell. Even if he's a bust, 5/7 is still a great hit rate).

 

Hit rate for QBs taken #2:

 

4/7(McNabb, Rivers, Tua, Stroud hits. RG3, Darnold, and Wilson busts, although RG3 is kind of an interesting case but ultimately he was a bust.).

 

Hit rate for QBs taken #3:

 

4/6*(Big Ben, Tannehill, Allen, Herbert hits. Akili Smith and Lance busts. AR15 too early to tell).

 

The overall hit rate for taking one of the top 3 QBs in a strong QB class is 13/19, with 2 too early to tell. That's a current hit rate of 68%. Even if you wanna call Young and Richardson busts, that's 13/21 which is still around 62%.

 

Other notes: In 5 of the 6 years, at least one QB taken after the top 3 was a hit. 1999: Culpepper. 2004: Schaub. 2012: Wilson and Cousins. 2018: Jackson. 2020: Love and Hurts. 2023 is obviously too early to tell, but Levis has looked decent early.

 

2021 is looking like the oddball year. Basically every QB taken after QB1(Lawrence) has been a bust. Its just looking like that was the fluky fools gold QB draft class.

 

Conclusion: If you have a shot at a QB in a perceived QB rich draft class, go for it, because your chance of hitting on one is actually fairly high.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

My God. The velocity of posts in this thread is incredible, and I can't keep up.  I work for a living.

 

I don't know if this has been posted or not, I'm sure it was, but Maye was on with Schefter (I think) and basically came out and said it would be somewhat awkward if he and Sam were competing for the same job. 

 

I kindof thought this from the beginning, Sam and Drake as best friends competing for the job, and if one stinks, the other goes in, at the very least, bad for the friendship.  Could they make it work?  Absolutely.  Would they make it work?  I think so.  Would it be ideal?  Probably not.

 

So I was thinking about this, and I think I came up with 3 thoughts:

 

1. Sam Howell being here or not being here or what you have to do with Sam should not factor one iota into the decision they are making at #2.  If they like Maye better, they should pick Maye.  If they like Daniels better, they should pick Daniels.  If Williams falls to 2 and they like him, they should pick him.  And whether or not Sam is on the roster or not, who he's friends with, or any other situation shouldn't even remotely factor into the decision making.

 

2. I would want a more veteran QB in the QB room no matter what.  I went back and looked to see who backups were for Arizona when Kliff was OC.  McCoy was the obvious one, but he's retired.  The other guy is Trace McSorley. I'm not sure that's the guy to go after, but he is from Ashburn... (That's a joke.)  Brissett would be perfect.  But I doubt he wants to come back here.  I don't know who they would target, but I would look for backup/third string QBs on the Eagles or 49ers as possible targets because of connections to Lynn and Johnson.  

 

3. I would trade Sam Howell no matter what if I was offered a 4th round pick or better, for his good and for the good of the team.  Part of it is because of #2 above.  I don't want Howell to be the "veteran" of the QB room.  He's played 1 year and 2 years of experience.  I'd want somebody who's been around the block more to go with the rookie QB.  I know you don't need that, we had Griffin and Kirk as 1/2 in 2012, and it was ok.  But we also had Grossman.  I think Sam could probably use a fresh start and a chance to compete, and we could use a veteran QB and a 4th round pick.  

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

My God. The velocity of posts in this thread is incredible, and I can't keep up.  I work for a living.

 

I don't know if this has been posted or not, I'm sure it was, but Maye was on with Schefter (I think) and basically came out and said it would be somewhat awkward if he and Sam were competing for the same job. 

 

I kindof thought this from the beginning, Sam and Drake as best friends competing for the job, and if one stinks, the other goes in, at the very least, bad for the friendship.  Could they make it work?  Absolutely.  Would they make it work?  I think so.  Would it be ideal?  Probably not.

 

So I was thinking about this, and I think I came up with 3 thoughts:

 

1. Sam Howell being here or not being here or what you have to do with Sam should not factor one iota into the decision they are making at #2.  If they like Maye better, they should pick Maye.  If they like Daniels better, they should pick Daniels.  If Williams falls to 2 and they like him, they should pick him.  And whether or not Sam is on the roster or not, who he's friends with, or any other situation shouldn't even remotely factor into the decision making.

 

2. I would want a more veteran QB in the QB room no matter what.  I went back and looked to see who backups were for Arizona when Kliff was OC.  McCoy was the obvious one, but he's retired.  The other guy is Trace McSorley. I'm not sure that's the guy to go after, but he is from Ashburn... (That's a joke.)  Brissett would be perfect.  But I doubt he wants to come back here.  I don't know who they would target, but I would look for backup/third string QBs on the Eagles or 49ers as possible targets because of connections to Lynn and Johnson.  

 

3. I would trade Sam Howell no matter what if I was offered a 4th round pick or better, for his good and for the good of the team.  Part of it is because of #2 above.  I don't want Howell to be the "veteran" of the QB room.  He's played 1 year and 2 years of experience.  I'd want somebody who's been around the block more to go with the rookie QB.  I know you don't need that, we had Griffin and Kirk as 1/2 in 2012, and it was ok.  But we also had Grossman.  I think Sam could probably use a fresh start and a chance to compete, and we could use a veteran QB and a 4th round pick.  

 

So I posted the link but didn't listen to it because I was working. I did see some people on X say he didn't seem as enthusiastic when talking about Washington but assumed it was because of Sam and potentially taking his good friend's job or having to compete with him. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep. I'll repeat and even expand on the research I did.

Didn't we JUST go through this and I responded to it? This seems like deja vu.  

 

9 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

1. Stay at 2, draft Maye or Daniels

2. Swap with Pats, draft Maye or Daniels

3. Trade with the Cards, draft Maye/Daniels/McCarthy

4. Trade with Atlanta, draft McCarthy

 

Any of those could be offers within the Top 10. Idk if we entertain any of them and simply just take our QB. Guess it depends on what's on the table.

FWIW, I am not sure Atlanta has enough for us to entertain discussions because we might feel #8 is too far removed to guarantee one of the Top 3 or 4 guys.

1. This is what we're going to do.

2. Unless NE REALLY wants one of the two QBs specifically, why would they trade up a spot?  

3. Why would the Cardinals come up to 2?  To get Marvin Harrison Jr?  They're not coming up to get a QB.  But they could just sit tight and pick him at 4.  

4. This would be a disaster unless Peters grades McCarthy on the same level as Daniels/Maye.  You DO NOT drop a tier of QBs EVER if you have the chance to take a top tier guy.  Under any circumstances for no reason.  Period.  You just take the best guy.  

 

There is an unlikely option 5 which is trade up to #1 and take Williams.  Which won't happen. .  

[Warhead36]

I don't think there is any chance we go for McCarthy. Our offensive system is gonna be based heavily around shotgun which is where the Big 3 all operated almost exclusively out of. McCarhty just is not a fit. On top of that, he isn't ready to start day one. The Big 3 all are.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

  You DO NOT drop a tier of QBs EVER if you have the chance to take a top tier guy.  Under any circumstances for no reason.  Period.  You just take the best guy.  

 

 

Exactly.

 

I don't get that some fans of the arguably the most star crossed team in the NFL especially at QB.... and part of the bad luck has been we haven't drafted top 5 that often let alone drafted that high in a highly touted QB draft -- yet some are like yawn, whatever.  How can we put ourselves back in the usual Qb pickle that we are used to -- shopping in the 2nd tier or waiting for a bad QB class. 

 

I forgot which poster made the analogy but it was a good one -- its like a convict getting out of jail and not knowing how to handle it so they find their way back to jail. 

 

[ThatNFLChick]

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

So I posted the link but didn't listen to it because I was working. I did see some people on X say he didn't seem as enthusiastic when talking about Washington but assumed it was because of Sam and potentially taking his good friend's job or having to compete with him. 

I wouldn't say he wasn't enthusiastic about Washington.

 

I think he wasn't particularly enthusiastic about competing for playing time with his best friend and the guy who mentored him when he was a Freshman.

 

And I think that's absolutely fair.  As Gibbs has said, "you're picking people."

 

More than anything else, I don't think he wants to take Sam's job.  That's the way I read it.  And I get that.  But Sam lost his job already.  

 

But this is something the team needs to fix: If they like Maye over Daniels, and I'm not saying they do or they don't, then they pick Maye.  If that's a problem to have Sam there, then Sam goes away.  It's that simple.  You don't let a 5th round pick with one year of below average starting sway your opinion on the #2 pick at all.  

 

And I'll also say this: I can COMPLETELY understand where both of them are coming from, and it's not an irrational position.  I don't want to compete against my friends either.  Would I?  Yes.  Is it ideal?  No.  Can it have lasting impact on my friendships?  Yes.  It's why you should (almost) never work with your spouse/significant other.  It's just not a great situation.

 

So if they like Maye, I have no problem with both Maye and Howell finding that uncomfortable, and them moving Howell because of it.  No problem with that at all.  I don't think it makes either one of them "mentally weak" or "immature" or "unprofessional."  I think it makes them human.  

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think there is any chance we go for McCarthy. Our offensive system is gonna be based heavily around shotgun which is where the Big 3 all operated almost exclusively out of. McCarhty just is not a fit. On top of that, he isn't ready to start day one. The Big 3 all are.

 

I don't think we go McCarthy.  But as someone who watched plenty of him, he can indeed play out of the shotgun.  I think he's a fit.

 

But as @Voice_of_Reason said, you don't shop a tier below if you can shop higher at QB.

[Kalu44]

All of these replies are assuming the front office REALLY loves one (or more) of the top 3 QBs. Maybe after all the evaluation, they don't LOVE any. In that case, you trade down.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

Another issue with us trading down for the 4th QB: do you really want to watch the Giants jump up and get their guy for a decade+?

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

I wouldn't say he wasn't enthusiastic about Washington.

 

I think he wasn't particularly enthusiastic about competing for playing time with his best friend and the guy who mentored him when he was a Freshman.

 

And I think that's absolutely fair.  As Gibbs has said, "you're picking people."

 

More than anything else, I don't think he wants to take Sam's job.  That's the way I read it.  And I get that.  But Sam lost his job already.  

 

But this is something the team needs to fix: If they like Maye over Daniels, and I'm not saying they do or they don't, then they pick Maye.  If that's a problem to have Sam there, then Sam goes away.  It's that simple.  You don't let a 5th round pick with one year of below average starting sway your opinion on the #2 pick at all.  

 

And I'll also say this: I can COMPLETELY understand where both of them are coming from, and it's not an irrational position.  I don't want to compete against my friends either.  Would I?  Yes.  Is it ideal?  No.  Can it have lasting impact on my friendships?  Yes.  It's why you should (almost) never work with your spouse/significant other.  It's just not a great situation.

 

So if they like Maye, I have no problem with both Maye and Howell finding that uncomfortable, and them moving Howell because of it.  No problem with that at all.  I don't think it makes either one of them "mentally weak" or "immature" or "unprofessional."  I think it makes them human.  

 

Yeah he came off plenty enthusiastic talking about Washington including referencing knowing Gibbs and his grandkids.

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think there is any chance we go for McCarthy. Our offensive system is gonna be based heavily around shotgun which is where the Big 3 all operated almost exclusively out of. McCarhty just is not a fit. On top of that, he isn't ready to start day one. The Big 3 all are.

I don't know that we truly know this.  Lynn's background with Kyle and Brian Johnson's with the Eagles, both use under center a lot.  

 

I think making any judgements on what the offense will or won't be based on Kliff's past is challenging.

 

It could be based around the gun, or it could be something entirely different.  It's impossible to know because they're not going to tell us.  

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Another issue with us trading down for the 4th QB: do you really want to watch the Giants jump up and get their guy for a decade+?

 

I don't but some apparently do.

 

It's a weird thing with the Giants, some of us here act like we've owned them.   The truth is the opposite. 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't but some apparently do.

 

It's a weird thing with the Giants, some of us here act like we've owned them.   The truth is the opposite. 

I don't know where that's coming from. Every time we play them we make them look like SB contenders. Tommy DeVito tore us up

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 minutes ago, Kalu44 said:

All of these replies are assuming the front office REALLY loves one (or more) of the top 3 QBs. Maybe after all the evaluation, they don't LOVE any. In that case, you trade down.

That's very true. Or they could only love Williams and he's not available.

 

And you don't reach for any of them.  If you don't have a grade on Maye or Daniels which justifies the #2 pick, fine.  

 

That said, if that's the case, it could be your standards are too high. And if you're waiting around for the chance to pick a better prospect, that chance might never come.  

 

When you have high rated prospects and the ability to take them, you do.  Don't overcomplicate it.  

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Kalu44 said:

All of these replies are assuming the front office REALLY loves one (or more) of the top 3 QBs. Maybe after all the evaluation, they don't LOVE any. In that case, you trade down.

 

Based on what seems like general league sentiment and Quinn's comments this morning, I think those odds are very slim that they don't like someone.

4 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

I don't know where that's coming from. Every time we play them we make them look like SB contenders. Tommy DeVito tore us up

 

Yeah I was sadly at that home less.  Ironically there was a Giants fan sitting behind me rooting for the Giants to lose because he wanted Drake Maye.  I talked about it at the time

 

[FootballZombie]

You got multiple blue chip prospects to choose from.

 

Its almost impossible to not find one to like.

[ThatNFLChick]

On NFL Network they said a lot of teams have some opinions on Caleb Williams not doing the medicals? I am confused about this, its the first I heard. They said they don't know how much it will matter to the teams at the top but if you were already skeptical about him or had some questions, this doesn't help. 

 

I hope someone posts the clip online. 

 

16 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

 

Ian just said more teams will be added to this list for Daniels. 

 

EDITED  -  Also glad to see I am not crazy and heard correctly. Why would he opt out of medical testing?

 

 

Edited February 28 by ThatNFLChick

[ExoDus84]

22 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Another issue with us trading down for the 4th QB: do you really want to watch the Giants jump up and get their guy for a decade+?

 

That's a wild assumption. Picking a QB is a crap shoot at best. Maybe we let them jump ahead of us and they grab the next Malik Willis.