The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[WashingtonRedWolves]

26 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

So we should only care about their final years?

 

I appreciate the case you made, but it’s a little weird that, from what I’ve seen, every Daniels’ fan wants us to ignore the seasons leading up to his final one. Or the fact that he was meaningfully older than the other guys during that season.
 

I mean, the dude’s going to be 24 years old before his rookie year is over. Name me the QBs that have lasted into their 30s playing JD’s style. At best, we likely have 5-7 years of high level play from him (if he hits). That needs to be factored into the evaluation. 

 

For the record, JD has a higher passer rating against tougher competition over two full years than the other two QBs. Both CW and Maye regressed in 2023 which is a very bad omen for NFL success, whereas Daniels improved a lot in 2023.

[clskinsfan]

4 hours ago, rockluc said:

Stylistically Daniels is much closer to RG3 than Williams. Give me Maye

Daniels dreams of having half the arm RG3 has/had.

 

[ThatNFLChick]

14 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

I think Matt was rumored to have mental health issues. 

 

He did. Through college and apparently also when he got to the pro level (getting hurt in the Bowl game so he couldn't participate in the Senior Bowl, combine etc probably didn't help and then getting hurt in preseason and missing the whole year I'm sure made things worse)

[dunfer]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Daniels dreams of having half the arm RG3 has/had.

 

mabye theyre similar in their ability to break down a defense and go through their reads? Robert never could process what he needed to fast enough. Daniels seems like a 1st read and run qb and could have the biggest bust potential in the nfl

[clskinsfan]

CBS Mock from 2 hours ago:

 

NFL Mock Draft: Commanders Trade Up To No. 1, Draft Caleb Williams

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/video/ryan-wilson-and-danny-kanell-join-tommy-tran-and-joe-musso-to-discuss-the-commanders-trading-up-to-no-1-and-selecting-caleb-williams-in-ryans-latest/

Caleb Williams dodging Bears rumors just pre-draft ‘smokescreen'

 

https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nfl/chicago-bears/bears-analysis/caleb-williams-dodging-bears-rumors-just-pre-draft-smokescreen/537637/

 

There have been unsubstantiated rumors that presumptive No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams would prefer not to be drafted by the Bears dating back to November.

Those rumors only heated up last week when FOX Sports' Colin Cowherd said he heard that Williams' camp would prefer the USC quarterback to be drafted by the Washington Commanders, who own the No. 2 overall pick. Cowherd walked that back a day later when he said Williams camp called him to set the record straight and that they are not "anit-Bear."

The noise around Williams and the idea that he will try to maneuver away from Chicago will only get louder as the 2024 NFL Draft nears. Such is life in the 24/7 content age.

[ThatNFLChick]

9 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

 

For the record, JD has a higher passer rating against tougher competition over two full years than the other two QBs. Both CW and Maye regressed in 2023 which is a very bad omen for NFL success, whereas Daniels improved a lot in 2023.

 

I always like how the excuse for Maye's down year in 2023 is he didn't have weapons and he had a new offense yet that excuse is never used for Daniels 2022 when he had a new team, new school, new program, new Head Coach, new offense, new OC, new state, new coast lol (and still had 27 TDs to 3 INTs, 68.5% completion percentage and beat multiple teams ranked in the top 10 in the hardest division in college football).

[illone]

5 minutes ago, dunfer said:

mabye theyre similar in their ability to break down a defense and go through their reads?

 

Similar play style, heigh, and weight. Both won the Heisman. Their stat lines in final college year are eerily similar as well.

[dunfer]

Just now, illone said:

 

Similar play style, heigh, and weight. Both won the Heisman. Their stat lines in final college year are eerily similar as well.

its robert....have we ever seen these two in the same place at the same time?

[PlayAction]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

CBS Mock from 2 hours ago:

 

NFL Mock Draft: Commanders Trade Up To No. 1, Draft Caleb Williams

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/video/ryan-wilson-and-danny-kanell-join-tommy-tran-and-joe-musso-to-discuss-the-commanders-trading-up-to-no-1-and-selecting-caleb-williams-in-ryans-latest/

We need every draft pick that we have...and more.  Why is Caleb worth so much more than any other QB?  There are no guarantees with any of these QBs. The KK connection is irrelevant IMO.  

[clskinsfan]

Just now, PlayAction said:

Why is Caleb worth so much more than any other QB?

Because he is the better prospect?

[KDawg]

4 hours ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

The QB in this draft who absolutely, positively reminds me of Zach Wilson more than anyone else in recent drafts, it's McCarthy. They look similar, move similar, both have great athleticism and arm talent but seem kind of spasmatic in their movements and thought process. Both about 6'2", 210 or so lbs. Both seem maybe a little on the less mature side to me........I can't get that similarity out of my head.

 

Now, I gotta admit, I liked Wilson, and I can be tempted to like things I see in JJ. But I'm too scared to pull that trigger.

I don’t know. I don’t think they look similar. I really didn’t like Wilson as a prospect. He had a lot of errant passes and would lock on… and his reputation was that of a spoiled kid.

 

McCarthy isn’t that. By all accounts his very well liked and he works his ass off.

 

McCarthy comes through in big moments… Wilson didn’t. 
 

McCarthy is a better runner, too. 
 

The only thing that really looks similar is their face. 

[srtman04]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Because he is the better prospect?

 

I'm getting serious Chase Young vibes from Caleb.....hard pass for me.  

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, srtman04 said:

 

I'm getting serious Chase Young vibes from Caleb.....hard pass for me.  

 

[srtman04]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

 

 

You might get 1 season of elite play, then once NFL defenses start catching on,  Caleb starts to whine, and the wheels then fall off that bus.....

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, illone said:

He seems like a hard working kid that is coachable enough to resolve them. Get him into a conditioning program this off-season. Learn Kingsbury's offense starting NOW. Film room. Diet. Maybe eat a little steak.

 

I could be dead wrong, but i think we have yet to see the best of Sam Howell.

 

Sam Howell, probably:

 

 

 

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

Even though I support drafting a QB at #2 I am also intrigued by how Kingsbury will improve Howell, who is still younger than Penix and only weeks older than Daniels.

 

Howell through week 10 was doing really well, he had delivered only one stinker of a game - Buffalo. Aside from that game he had thrown 17 TDs to 5 INTs and was close to the league lead in yards. But there were already signs that things were going south. His feet were getting happy and he was starting to flee the pocket from phantom pressure. He was doubting himself on throws and it all went downhill from there. I don't want to build around him at this point but I would like to see if he can be coached back to that earlier headspace.

Thank you. People dont put enough stock into the ages. Those extra two years are massive both in the short and long term. 
 

Id be super stoked to see what a 23 yo Maye would look like under two years of Kingsbury’s coaching.

 

Too many people are looking at what the guys are now, instead of projecting how theyll look after 3, 4, 5 years under our program when the playing field is more equalized. 

[WEARE1554]

19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Because he is the better prospect?

No he isn’t. Great QB with sub par defenses. Look at the time they played Utah- 

[RWJ]

5 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Thank you. People dont put enough stock into the ages. Those extra two years are massive both in the short and long term. 
 

Id be super stoked to see what a 23 yo Maye would look like under two years of Kingsbury’s coaching.

 

Too many people are looking at what the guys are now, instead of projecting how theyll look after 3, 4, 5 years under our program when the playing field is more equalized. 

Especially when Drake and Howell both played in an Air Raid system at UNC and succeeded.  

[illone]

12 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Sam Howell, probably:

 

 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Oh Louis Riddick's opinion is one I usually pay attention to. 

 

Not me. His track record is just as ---- as everyone else's I've ever seen. Nobody is consistently good at this. That's why studies show the best technique for success is "more picks". 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, ST_DaGoat21 said:

The same Louis Riddick who was drooling over Haskins?  I will never take any scouting advise from him again.

 

Nah, Riddick is as good and bad as anyone else (well, maybe as bad). You can pull up anyone's cv on QB's and they ALL SUCK. Nobody hits on the regular at QB projection, and if they say they do, they're lying (or simply conveniently forget all their misses). 

 

I suck at projecting future success, like nearly everyone out there, but like a lot of us (I think), I pretend I have a skill at projecting busts, but honestly, I'm not sold that's a skill when more than half of these guys either suck or disappoint anyway. 

5 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

If this is true, we should have hired him before he signed with the Pats.

 

 

So they gave us three hits, one of which, was idiotic (I am NEVER gonna be sold that having Josh Allen at the top of your '18 QB rankings EVER made any sense. If a guy is hitting at a 55% clip in a dog ---- conference, who on earth is going to think they'll be more accurate once they play against the best secondary and edge and interior pass rushing talent in the world?!?! That was a stupid take, and still is. If the Raiders had hit on Henry Ruggs a few years ago, instead of missed, it wouldn't have changed the fact that it was dumber than ---- process and an idiotic selection) color me unimpressed.

 

Tell me what he would have done with the 2011 class. The 2012 class? 2021? Giving a couple of examples from '17 and '18, and ignoring everything after, and before suggests to me you didn't want his advice the rest of the that decade, nor the latest one. There's no magic QB Prospect genius, if there was, he'd be the highest paid official in the NFL, by a country mile. 

[wit33]

3 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Nah, Riddick is as good and bad as anyone else (well, maybe as bad). You can pull up anyone's cv on QB's and they ALL SUCK. Nobody hits on the regular at QB projection, and if they say they do, they're lying (or simply conveniently forget all their misses). 

 

I suck at projecting future success, like nearly everyone out there, but like a lot of us (I think), I pretend I have a skill at projecting busts, but honestly, I'm not sold that's a skill when more than half of these guys either suck or disappoint anyway. 

On TV, you're not afforded the luxury of being 60-40 or presenting multiple "ifs" and "buts." Instead, you're compelled to make assertive statements and stick to them. In person, Riddick would likely emphasize that nobody is a guaranteed success, highlighting the uncertainties of work ethic and adaptation to the NFL lifestyle. However, such nuanced perspectives might not resonate as effectively on television. 

[Blanka]

29 minutes ago, WEARE1554 said:

No he isn’t. Great QB with sub par defenses. Look at the time they played Utah- 

In 3 games vs Utah 77-117 65.8% 1000 yards, 8 Touchdowns to 1int 30 carries 105 yards 1 rushing td

 

The 2nd half of the 2nd utah matchup in the p12 championship game  he played on a bad hammy.

 

the only thing accurate about what you said is the SC had a sub par defense hence why they lost the 3 matchups

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

The QB in this draft who absolutely, positively reminds me of Zach Wilson more than anyone else in recent drafts, it's McCarthy. They look similar, move similar, both have great athleticism and arm talent but seem kind of spasmatic in their movements and thought process. Both about 6'2", 210 or so lbs. Both seem maybe a little on the less mature side to me........I can't get that similarity out of my head.

 

Now, I gotta admit, I liked Wilson, and I can be tempted to like things I see in JJ. But I'm too scared to pull that trigger.

Wilson played for BYU. His college schedule was an endless litany of straight trash. Across three seasons he had a handful of games against teams that weren't total ---. I don't know if McCarthy is gonna hit or not, but I do know he was one of the top QB's in his recruiting class, and that he played a legit schedule in the Big 10. No ducking the big dogs. He played Ohio State 3 times, Penn State twice, played bowl games against Georgia, TCU, Alabama and Washington. It's not remotely comparable. Doesn't mean he's good, but it does mean that McCarthy has taken hundreds upon hundreds of snaps against the best athletes in the world that play football. Before Zach played in the NFL, he'd taken virtually zero snaps against elite athletes of NFL caliber (he had an odd 3 game stretch against Tennessee, USC and Washington in '19, but that was it, other than those 3 games, he played nobody, ever and those games were against middling versions of Tennessee, USC, and Washington, I believe all 3 of them finished 8-5 that year). 

 

Right now, I think it would be reasonable to suggest (at least to me) that JJ is probably:

 

20-30%: Above average or better QB:

20-25% Average QB

45-60%: Disappointment

 

That's how I see it (w/his ceiling potential of top 12 or better being probably 5-15%). 

 

That's just me spitballing. 

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Sure but 2020 and 2018 were spot on and against what basically everyone else was saying and pushing and that's why everyone started paying attention to him. He went totally against the narrative (Josh Allen at #1, Herbert and Love before Tua, etc) and was seemingly dead on. 

 

Of course he does have that ugly Zach Wilson miss on there. 

There was no narrative in 2018, that was what made it such a weird draft. Nobody was even sure who Cleveland would draft at the 1.01 until the night before. That's how much disagreement there was. 

 

Baker: the upside was the analytics #'s. The fear was some sort of undersized, Manziel guy again, but the accuracy was absurd.

 

Rosen: Prototype footwork, great #'s, great superficial stuff SIP makes fun of me for buying into lol, fear was his mental make up sucked, and he had some real, tangible mechanics issues. Production at UCLA was meh.

 

Allen: Unbelievable arm and athlete, fear was not remotely accurate enough to make it as a pro.

 

Darnold: Breakout at a very young age, great arm, good production, fear was, why did he play like --- his finale year? a lot of turnovers too, and sacks.

 

Jackson: Elite runner and athlete, great arm, fear was: raw as a thrower, will take time, is he more athlete than QB?

 

Nobody could agree on these guys because they all had concerns. Baker was too small and had to leave his school, was he a legit enough physical athlete/thrower, Rosen had a lot of holes, Allen had a giant hole that made me ignore him entirely, Darnold had great assets but real concerns, Lamar had a lot of work to do to become adequate or better as a passer at all levels.

 

Hitting on that is nice, but honestly, Josh Allen #1 makes me think he was an idiot. Yes he hit, but come on. You don't care about his accuracy? The NFL totally ignores QB's at this point with accuracy issues that extensive. He's an outlier at one of the most, maybe THE MOST important trait: throwing the ball into tight windows accurately, consistently. He didn't do that in college, ever. So putting him #1 makes me think he was an idiot. If you're willing to go hero ball, and take Allen's traits, and say, "---- it" and let fly? I can see that, especially in the mid first or later, but putting him as the guy that should be taken at 1.01 just strikes me as idiocy. His '22 and '21 rankings are really, really bad which underline that.

 

In fairness to the guy, I'm not hating here, I just think there's a creedo that's far more important than that he nailed a class here or there, and that's whether or not you have good process, and follow best practices. Anyone can blindly hit, here or there, from time to time, but if you have really flawed process, over the long term, you will fail. You just will because over time, your approach sucks. 

 

I don't know if he's great or bad or inbetween, but I tend to think if he was actually good at this, consistently, he would be employed yesterday and at a far nicer sum than by whomever's paying him right now. 

3 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Since Matt Corral was injured his rookie season and was on IR all season and then his 2nd season they had a full regime change because Matt Rhule got fired and then the Patriots picked him up and he quit football we can't really say what Matt Corral was or could have been? 

 

 

I agree with you there. It definitely appears that what talent Corral has, or doesn't, will never be known because what went on between his ears trumped it, in terms of mental health/mental make up whatever it might be. There's no evidence I've found to suggest he would've hit for sure or not, but he was definitely one of the very best QB's of a bad class, maybe THE BEST. But we'll never know for sure what he could have been now. 

2 hours ago, FrFan said:

Why hiring a "standout" Qb talent evaluator if you don't listen to him (Mahomes)?. He also traded up to get Matt Corral who didn't live up to the draft capital invested by the Panthers.

Nah, he got hurt, and then the mental make up issue washed him out. Matt Corrall will always be a question mark. I don't think it's fair to regard him as a bust in the same fashion say, we'd regard Brandon Weeden as a bust.