The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[dunfer]

2 minutes ago, FunBunny said:

 

Here is my take on Maye and Daniels. 

 

Daniels put up spectacular numbers against the top competition this year. He put up great numbers against top competition last year. Maye's numbers are mediocre compared to Daniel's and he played against mediocre competition (SEC>B1G>PAC12>BIG12(?)>ACC). Drake Maye played for a college that loves cranking out trash QBs. 

 

I will be extremely unhappy if Washington drafts Maye.

I think they’ve done this debate a few times

Nobody gives a ****. New FO just needs to get it right

Edited January 11 by dunfer

[KDawg]

Just now, FunBunny said:

 

Here is my take on Maye and Daniels. 

 

Daniels put up spectacular numbers against the top competition this year. He put up great numbers against top competition last year. Maye's numbers are mediocre compared to Daniel's and he played against mediocre competition (SEC>B1G>PAC12>BIG12(?)>ACC). Drake Maye played for a college that loves cranking out trash QBs. 

 

I will be extremely unhappy if Washington drafts Maye.

Competition point is fair. But so is surrounding talent. LSU is better in every way offensively than UNC.

 

So better comp + better surrounding cast 

 

Vs. 

 

Worse comp + worse cast. 

1 minute ago, PeterMP said:

Generally, I suspect with running/more mobile QBs we are going to start to see them treated more like RBs.  With the idea that they have only so many hits/runs in them and their value drops to the point that the big/long term extension doesn't make sense.

 

For somebody like Hurts, small injuries seem to have built up and sapped him of his ability/desire to make big plays in the run game.

Here’s how I look at mobile QBs:

 

Their running is best utilized as a tool to lean on while they develop as a passer early on. As their career progresses their legs should still be used (an athlete is an athlete) but become less and less of a focal point and when they do use their legs they should duck out of bounds or slide. 
 

Jackson and Allen, to some extent, have done this. Of course, they both still run. And of course, Allen still thinks he’s a human battering ram. But it feels like the runs are more impactful statistically and less impactful physically. They are leaning less on that ability. 
 

That’s the model for sustainability, imo. If you are heading into your second contract and still rely on your legs for a large part of your game there is trouble brewing.

[FunBunny]

9 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

Generally, I suspect with running/more mobile QBs we are going to start to see them treated more like RBs.  With the idea that they have only so many hits/runs in them and their value drops to the point that the big/long term extension doesn't make sense.

 

For somebody like Hurts, small injuries seem to have built up and sapped him of his ability/desire to make big plays in the run game.

but that touche-push though

[philibusters]

21 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I don’t know that Daniels is clearly better. Daniels had a fantastic season and is a great runner. But he struggles with understanding how to minimize contact and his deep passes are most often to receivers with more than a few yards of separation. 
 

He’s been decent his entire career but nothing beyond that this year. And while this year was stellar, I worry about his down field accuracy and field vision as it pertains to reading coverage and not leading already open receivers.

 

But he’s a great prospect. I think Daniels is QB3 but I can see why folks like him.

 

I am willing to concede Daniels had the better 2023 season   On the other hand, like you, I do not concede that Daniels is a better prospect.  Daniels had the highest PFF grade amongst D1 QB's in college football.   His team went 10-3.  It was an amazing season.  He had a better season than both Drake Maye and Caleb Williams who had lower PFF grades and whose teams disappointed.  His PFF grade was 4.1 points higher than Mayes (94.7 to 90.6) and 4.4 points higher than Caleb Williams (90.3).

 

But we are not rating 2023 seasons.  We are drafting a guy for the future.  Just looking at larger sample sizes Maye had a PFF grade 4 points higher than Daniels last year and Williams was 5 points higher (last year Daniels had a 87 grade, Maye 91, and Williams 92).  So just enlarging the sample size changes the view.  Further when you break down traits--I think the pecking order becomes clear 1) Caleb Williams 2) Drake Maye and 3) Jayden Daniels.   Daniels is  decent thrower but he does not have the arm talent of either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.   Daniels does have the best wheels but all three are good runners.   Caleb Williams arm talent is slightly more versatile than Maye's (more ability to be accurate off platform) and Williams has a pocket presence that neither Maye or Daniels can match.   On that front, Maye has significantly better pocket presence than Daniels.  Daniels is look at read 1, look at read 2, then run (whether there is pressure or not).   He has a timer but not an impressive awareness of the pocket.   Williams has incredible pocket presence and Maye somewhere in between.  To me, one you look at the tools, the pecking order is clear:  Williams, then Maye, then Daniels.

 

But Daniels legitimately had the best 2023 season.  But its college, in college lots of QB's thrive who cannot make it in the NFL because you can get away with not having some tools you need in the NFL.  Daniels is a good prospect.  Worth a top 5 pick.  If we had lost the tiebreaker to New England I am fine drafting him.   And he could end up better than Maye.   I am making up odds, but I'd say 44% chance Maye is significantly better than Daniels, 22% chance Daniels is significantly better than Maye, and 33% chance neither is significantly better than the other or something like that.  I like Daniels a lot too. 

 

I don't get the lack of love for Drake Maye.

[KDawg]

11 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

I am willing to concede Daniels had the better 2023 season   On the other hand, like you, I do not concede that Daniels is a better prospect.  Daniels had the highest PFF grade amongst D1 QB's in college football.   His team went 10-3.  It was an amazing season.  He had a better season than both Drake Maye and Caleb Williams who had lower PFF grades and whose teams disappointed.  His PFF grade was 4.1 points higher than Mayes (94.7 to 90.6) and 4.4 points higher than Caleb Williams (90.3).

 

But we are not rating 2023 seasons.  We are drafting a guy for the future.  Just looking at larger sample sizes Maye had a PFF grade 4 points higher than Daniels last year and Williams was 5 points higher (last year Daniels had a 87 grade, Maye 91, and Williams 92).  So just enlarging the sample size changes the view.  Further when you break down traits--I think the pecking order becomes clear 1) Caleb Williams 2) Drake Maye and 3) Jayden Daniels.   Daniels is  decent thrower but he does not have the arm talent of either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.   Daniels does have the best wheels but all three are good runners.   Caleb Williams arm talent is slightly more versatile than Maye's (more ability to be accurate off platform) and Williams has a pocket presence that neither Maye or Daniels can match.   On that front, Maye has significantly better pocket presence than Daniels.  Daniels is look at read 1, look at read 2, then run (whether there is pressure or not).   He has a timer but not an impressive awareness of the pocket.   Williams has incredible pocket presence and Maye somewhere in between.  To me, one you look at the tools, the pecking order is clear:  Williams, then Maye, then Daniels.

 

But Daniels legitimately had the best 2023 season.  But its college, in college lots of QB's thrive who cannot make it in the NFL because you can get away with not having some tools you need in the NFL.  Daniels is a good prospect.  Worth a top 5 pick.  If we had lost the tiebreaker to New England I am fine drafting him.   And he could end up better than Maye.   I am making up odds, but I'd say 44% chance Maye is significantly better than Daniels, 22% chance Daniels is significantly better than Maye, and 33% chance neither is significantly better than the other or something like that.  I like Daniels a lot too. 

 

I don't get the lack of love for Drake Maye.

I couldn’t figure out why I was down on Maye. I watched a bunch of him and just couldn’t put my finger on it. Then I did.

 

His mechanics.

 

They suck.

 

Yes, with a totally clean pocket he does everything well. But the second there is a hint of pressure everything goes to ****. His timing stinks… he rarely delivers a ball from the top of his drop.

 

He drifts towards the target in his drop. He plays from his tip toes. He doesn’t use his hips or legs adequately when he throws…

 

And yet, he still has a strong arm. He still gets the ball to his receivers, even late on timing, and completes passes. He still can, at times, pin point drop a corner route into the breadbasket with a defender draped over a receiver.

 

I’m glad I figured out why I disliked him so much because it made me realize I still ****ing hate his mechanics but also that it’s all teachable ****.

 

THAT made me realize his value as a prospect. His weaknesses are all the teachable stuff. His strengths are a lot of the unteachable.

 

Cant guarantee he actually learns the teachable ****, now… but it’s a much better place to be than needing to teach arm strength (can’t, really), accuracy or how to avoid contact. 
 

Daniels has to learn a lot, too. And you can’t teach speed, but he’s missing the accuracy piece when a defender is draped. He’s missing the avoid contact piece. 
 

Still solid. Just less clean.

Edited January 11 by KDawg

[Thinking Skins]

But how does Daniels season look compared to Fields in college? I'll admit that I'm not a college scout and I look at analytics more. But I like Fields stuff in college more. But that's based on the numbers. 

 

Then there's the size. I like Fields size cause he's 225 and 6'3 as opposed to whatever Daniels is now. Maybe he's 220 but I've seen 185 and 215 and we'll have to see at the combine if he comes. 

 

And aren't they the same age or Fields younger? That's what makes me think of trading for Fields. I wouldn't give him a Jones contract but just try to give him something reasonable and have him come in as the number 1 with Sam as the number 2. 

[NoCalMike]

I have sort of made peace with the fact that there is a good chance the team goes into 2024 with a new starting QB, however part of me thinks it's being dismissed too quickly the fact that a new GM,HC,OC etc etc.....plus any upgrades in player-personnel might actually benefit Howell as a QB as well.  What happens if they hit camp with Howell battling the QB draft pick and Howell just absolutely blows the other guy out of the water?  Would a QB being picked as high as #2 sitting for a season or perhaps until Sam might regress during the season sit well with the fans or is the shiny new toy too big of a potential draw to have hold a clipboard for any amount of time?

Edited January 11 by NoCalMike

[Commander202]

If we do get Ben Johnson or Slowik and we can’t get Caleb than, I’d be more open to giving Howell another chance . Think it’d be hard to say no to MHJ or a franchise LT at#2. 
 

Thats the way I see it , I’ll even be open to Justin fields if it isn’t a second round pick .

19 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

But how does Daniels season look compared to Fields in college? I'll admit that I'm not a college scout and I look at analytics more. But I like Fields stuff in college more. But that's based on the numbers. 

 

Then there's the size. I like Fields size cause he's 225 and 6'3 as opposed to whatever Daniels is now. Maybe he's 220 but I've seen 185 and 215 and we'll have to see at the combine if he comes. 

 

And aren't they the same age or Fields younger? That's what makes me think of trading for Fields. I wouldn't give him a Jones contract but just try to give him something reasonable and have him come in as the number 1 with Sam as the number 2. 

Personally for me I think fields is a better prospect . Bigger and faster imo 

Edited January 11 by Commander202

[dunfer]

20 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

I have sort of made peace with the fact that there is a good chance the team goes into 2024 with a new starting QB, however part of me thinks it's being dismissed to quickly the fact that a new GM,HC,OC etc etc.....plus any upgrades in player-personnel might actually benefit Howell as a QB as well.  What happens if they hit camp with Howell battling the QB draft pick and Howell just absolutely blows the other guy out of the water?  Would a QB being picked as high as #2 sitting for a season or perhaps until Sam might regress during the season sit well with the fans or is the shiny new toy too big of a potential draw to have hold a clipboard for any amount of time?

no you put the best guy out there. Sam didnt need rep, statrting strong and fizzling. He needed an oline, TE and OC.

i guess that could be film on the offense that made us struggle late though

Edited January 11 by dunfer

[Thinking Skins]

32 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

I have sort of made peace with the fact that there is a good chance the team goes into 2024 with a new starting QB, however part of me thinks it's being dismissed to quickly the fact that a new GM,HC,OC etc etc.....plus any upgrades in player-personnel might actually benefit Howell as a QB as well.  What happens if they hit camp with Howell battling the QB draft pick and Howell just absolutely blows the other guy out of the water?  Would a QB being picked as high as #2 sitting for a season or perhaps until Sam might regress during the season sit well with the fans or is the shiny new toy too big of a potential draw to have hold a clipboard for any amount of time?

I want to believe in that too, but I'm the back of my head I'm saying yeah but what it it's not true. Do you really want to bet that much on a guy who collapsed at the end of the year? For whatever reason? 

 

At minimum I think we need to bring in competition. I don't think it's Brissett. It could be Fields. He's a former first round pick who's having great days, and bad days. Both Johnson and the guy in Houston had times with QBs. So maybe they could help Fields, or maybe Howell. 

 

The thing that's a problem is, this introduces a QB controversy and we don't need that. I don't want to ship Howell out of here cause honestly I think he's better than Fields and everyone in the draft but people are going to clown me for that. But he didn't perform and players are going to take sides. 

 

Thing is. That's going to happen if we take a QB at 2 no matter what. 

[NoCalMike]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

I want to believe in that too, but I'm the back of my head I'm saying yeah but what it it's not true. Do you really want to bet that much on a guy who collapsed at the end of the year? For whatever reason? 

 

At minimum I think we need to bring in competition. I don't think it's Brissett. It could be Fields. He's a former first round pick who's having great days, and bad days. Both Johnson and the guy in Houston had times with QBs. So maybe they could help Fields, or maybe Howell. 

 

The thing that's a problem is, this introduces a QB controversy and we don't need that. I don't want to ship Howell out of here cause honestly I think he's better than Fields and everyone in the draft but people are going to clown me for that. But he didn't perform and players are going to take sides. 

 

Thing is. That's going to happen if we take a QB at 2 no matter what. 

 

Oh allow me to clarify to make it clear, I am not endorsing Howell being handed the starting job in 2024 as of right now.  He did enough to regress (I know it wasn't all on him by any means) that I am okay moving on from him if that is what the new front office/coaching staff feel is best.  My only question was what if Howell actually performs better during camp & practice after all the changes have been made.   While I don't think Howell had a good enough last couple of months to guarantee him anything, I also don't see his first year as a starter as a reason to say you 100% want to move on from him, all this considered as to the roster and game plans etc etc......I am just sort of not sure how things would be handled should we draft a QB at #2, and whether Howell is going to be be done as the starter no matter what, at least at the start of the season.

[Conn]

We endure (or if you’re like me, enjoy) a miraculous, extremely unlikely tank straight to the #2 pick in an enticing QB class, with an entire new staff coming in…and people are wasting internet real estate talking about Justin Fields, who has barely developed in three years and is about to need a second contract. He can’t even drop back in the pocket correctly after three years, and throws the timing off on every single play. I could go on forever, I had extremely high hopes for him and freaked out when we didn’t trade up for him. 
 

Now…any opinion is fair, but isn’t there a point when you’re just wasting your own time? Whatever GM we are about to hire is going to take the job in part BECAUSE they get to immediately put their stamp on the roster with a swing at a franchise QB at #2. You can talk yourselves in circles running trade down scenarios all you want, but it’s obvious that whoever we hire is going to draft one of the hyped QB prospects with the #2 overall pick whether we all see what they see or not. It’s a HUGE part of the draw of this team as a destination right now. The top open destination in the sport, according to most reports. 
 

So at what point do we just get real? Sometimes I think certain posters here just fall so deeply into a niche twitter deep dive and exit it to come on the boards here talking dumb fan scenarios as if they’re adjacent to the reality we live in, when realistically they are not. 
 

We are about to hire a stud personnel guy to shop for the ingredients. 
 

He is likely about to hire a stud offensive playcaller to cook the ingredients.

 

Both of those guys are going to be insanely hungry for the #1 rarest, most premium ingredient you can possibly ask for as a GM and HC (especially an offensive playcaller)—a shiny new pedigreed blue chip QB prospect. 
 

It’s inevitable. If you just want to talk shop, whatever. But people are dedicating hundreds, thousands of words (me too, now) to scenarios that aren’t just unlikely—they fly in the face of the extremely obvious situation we’re in. 
 

Howell for all intents and purposes does not exist anymore. Kirk Cousins is a memory. Fields does not exist for us except as a variable effecting the QB we can draft at #2 after Chicago makes their decision. Bo Nix does not exist for us. Michael Penix does not exist for us. McCarthy does not exist for us. 
 

I think it’s perfectly fair not to be as high on Williams, Maye, and Daniels. I’m learning a ton reading and watching the breakdowns I’m seeing here from people I agree with and people I disagree with. But the reality is that we are about to watch this franchise draft one of those three players. Likely it’s Drake Maye. Discussion of unlikely corner case trade scenarios when teams in our situation just do not do that, feels kinda pointless to me. 

Edited January 11 by Conn

[SkinsFTW]

I think that even if they believe that Howell is the future they still should take a QB.

 

If they had thought this way in the past we probably wouldn't need one right now.

[Dark Acre]

You keep Howell, draft your QB at #2 - he sits his first year while you rebuild the team around Sam.  (There will be growing pains.)  Sam either gets shellacked and medevac'd or he proves he can play in which case you see if you can get something for him in a trade.  It won't be high because he'll only have 1 year left, but if he can play, some team will give up a 4th or maybe a 3rd for him and you slide the new QB into the now-smoothly operating team.

[Skinsinparadise]

Weeks back I started talking about Daniels on this thread in a positive way and i got hammered for it.    I am just pointed out that I like Daniels and have liked him for awhile.

 

But IMHO Drake Maye is likely the better the pick.  People talk on and off about can we surround a QB with a good surrounding cast.  IMO we can but it might take a couple of years to build that up.  We've seen Maye with a crap supporting cast.  We didn't see Daniels like that.    Daniels supporting cast was stellar.  

 

Maye made contested-tight window throws routinely and did so under duress.  Daniels tended to wait for his Wrs to get open and then throw and he had the horses who did that for him,

 

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[mhd24]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

They have no choice.  No way to get the top QBs and Jones is on a big contract (that they can get out of after next year).  

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

They have no choice.  No way to get the top QBs and Jones is on a big contract (that they can get out of after next year).  

 

They ikely have to work that next tier of QBs in this draft if they go that route, unless they trade up but am guessing the top 3 picks don't go on sale. 

[mhd24]

40 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

They ikely have to work that next tier of QBs in this draft if they go that route, unless they trade up but am guessing the top 3 picks don't go on sale. 

 

Yeah, I could see them taking a next tier QB with one of their 2s, but would Mara allow it?  He seems to be in love with Jones.  I figure they might actually trade down if they can for ammo next year to get a QB.  Heck, they might wait two years and go all in Arch Mannning LOL.

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is in the process of making a mistake" Napoleon.

[Warhead36]

12 hours ago, KDawg said:

Competition point is fair. But so is surrounding talent. LSU is better in every way offensively than UNC.

 

So better comp + better surrounding cast 

 

Vs. 

 

Worse comp + worse cast. 

Here’s how I look at mobile QBs:

 

Their running is best utilized as a tool to lean on while they develop as a passer early on. As their career progresses their legs should still be used (an athlete is an athlete) but become less and less of a focal point and when they do use their legs they should duck out of bounds or slide. 
 

Jackson and Allen, to some extent, have done this. Of course, they both still run. And of course, Allen still thinks he’s a human battering ram. But it feels like the runs are more impactful statistically and less impactful physically. They are leaning less on that ability. 
 

That’s the model for sustainability, imo. If you are heading into your second contract and still rely on your legs for a large part of your game there is trouble brewing.

Yep agree 100% with this. We were on the same path with RG3 before he got injured and the whole plan fell apart..

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, mhd24 said:

They have no choice.  No way to get the top QBs and Jones is on a big contract (that they can get out of after next year).  

Oh they re stuck with Jones for next year in some capacity because of the contract. But that wouldn't stop them drafting say Penix to come in and red shirt or compete with him.

 

Dabol will be on a hot seat though. He likely needs to win next year.

[zCommander]

 

 

[Warhead36]

8 hours ago, Conn said:

We endure (or if you’re like me, enjoy) a miraculous, extremely unlikely tank straight to the #2 pick in an enticing QB class, with an entire new staff coming in…and people are wasting internet real estate talking about Justin Fields, who has barely developed in three years and is about to need a second contract. He can’t even drop back in the pocket correctly after three years, and throws the timing off on every single play. I could go on forever, I had extremely high hopes for him and freaked out when we didn’t trade up for him. 
 

Now…any opinion is fair, but isn’t there a point when you’re just wasting your own time? Whatever GM we are about to hire is going to take the job in part BECAUSE they get to immediately put their stamp on the roster with a swing at a franchise QB at #2. You can talk yourselves in circles running trade down scenarios all you want, but it’s obvious that whoever we hire is going to draft one of the hyped QB prospects with the #2 overall pick whether we all see what they see or not. It’s a HUGE part of the draw of this team as a destination right now. The top open destination in the sport, according to most reports. 
 

So at what point do we just get real? Sometimes I think certain posters here just fall so deeply into a niche twitter deep dive and exit it to come on the boards here talking dumb fan scenarios as if they’re adjacent to the reality we live in, when realistically they are not. 
 

We are about to hire a stud personnel guy to shop for the ingredients. 
 

He is likely about to hire a stud offensive playcaller to cook the ingredients.

 

Both of those guys are going to be insanely hungry for the #1 rarest, most premium ingredient you can possibly ask for as a GM and HC (especially an offensive playcaller)—a shiny new pedigreed blue chip QB prospect. 
 

It’s inevitable. If you just want to talk shop, whatever. But people are dedicating hundreds, thousands of words (me too, now) to scenarios that aren’t just unlikely—they fly in the face of the extremely obvious situation we’re in. 
 

Howell for all intents and purposes does not exist anymore. Kirk Cousins is a memory. Fields does not exist for us except as a variable effecting the QB we can draft at #2 after Chicago makes their decision. Bo Nix does not exist for us. Michael Penix does not exist for us. McCarthy does not exist for us. 
 

I think it’s perfectly fair not to be as high on Williams, Maye, and Daniels. I’m learning a ton reading and watching the breakdowns I’m seeing here from people I agree with and people I disagree with. But the reality is that we are about to watch this franchise draft one of those three players. Likely it’s Drake Maye. Discussion of unlikely corner case trade scenarios when teams in our situation just do not do that, feels kinda pointless to me. 

This is 100% spot on.

 

Some people need to move out of fantasy land.

[Thinking Skins]

9 hours ago, Conn said:

Howell for all intents and purposes does not exist anymore. Kirk Cousins is a memory. Fields does not exist for us except as a variable effecting the QB we can draft at #2 after Chicago makes their decision. Bo Nix does not exist for us. Michael Penix does not exist for us. McCarthy does not exist for us. 
 

I think it’s perfectly fair not to be as high on Williams, Maye, and Daniels. I’m learning a ton reading and watching the breakdowns I’m seeing here from people I agree with and people I disagree with. But the reality is that we are about to watch this franchise draft one of those three players. Likely it’s Drake Maye. Discussion of unlikely corner case trade scenarios when teams in our situation just do not do that, feels kinda pointless to me. 

Edited 8 hours ago by Conn

This is your world. 

 

Maybe you're right, maybe not. Some of us like to play out other scenarios and use logic to say what if something else happens. 

 

Just like I said "what If Mayhew is not fired at the end of the season" and people got all up in arms like I was doing something illegal. Its cool if you don't want to entertain these scenarios but this years draft class is not like the Luck & RG3 year or the Tank for Tua year (which wound up also having Herbert) or the Burrow year. Instead we have 3 first round QBs who a lot of people are not sold on. Then when you look at age (Caleb Williams - 22, Drake Maye - 21, Jayden Daniels - 23) and contrast that with the guys in the NFL with experience (Howell - 23, Fields - 24), its not as easy a decision as you make it. If it is for you then cool.

 

There are two options. These conversations are happening all over DC - in bars, on Twitter, at workplaces etc. If EXTREMESKINS will not be a place for whether we keep Howell, trade for Fields, then I think that's sad but I'll just move the conversation back to Twitter. But you're being naïve to think that nobody's having this conversation. Just like people were naïve to think that it was naïve to think we wouldn't keep Mayhew and EB (even for a few days).