The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Warhead36]

Chasing unicorns can often be a fool's errand.

[Conn]

 

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

They indeed would have to move heaven and earth to get them. 
 

And neither are guaranteed to be elite either.

I think I’m completely out on trading up for QBs. The cost is usually too much and QB development is too random. 
 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2022-nfl-draft-what-the-past-decade-says-about-moving-up-for-a-quarterback-plus-some-trade-hypotheticals/amp/

Edited November 7, 2023 by BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93

[Conn]

People who think they can tell within the first five years of a QB’s career whether they’re going to end up special or not, just based on physical tools and early production, will probably be disappointed. People were clamoring for Herbert to get paired with someone like Kellen Moore at the wheel of the offense, and it’s not always going smoothly.
 

So it’s not as simple as saying “X QB who is flashing will never be Justin Herbert”. Because those people aren’t usually watching enough of these others guys around the league—Justin Herbert himself isn’t even usually the Justin Herbert of their dreams that they compare everyone else to. Same with Josh Allen. Joe Burrow some weeks. Trevor Lawrence for most of his career so far. It’s just not as simple as guys like Stihl in here are making it out to be. 

[Tyler Spiers]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

 

Love this stat! His big time throws are amazing and not only can he throw accurate short laser darts, he also has beautiful touch on his deep ball.

[Going Commando]

8 hours ago, Conn said:

Let’s hope Howell gets one this offseason 

 

Laremy Tunsil is good, but he's not a "true top tier blindsided protector." He's barely better than Charles Leno.  Maybe people don't realize it, but Leno is top ten in OT pass block win rate and top five in OT run block win rate this year, and our offense still sucks.  I question the impact of OTs any more in the shotgun spread era of the NFL.  When you look at the list of the most consistent block winners at OT, it's a whole bunch of no names like Brian O'Neill and Leno and Larry Borom and Garrett Bolles and  Kendall Lamm and Rasheed Walker and Dion Dawkins mixed in there with the pedigreed studs on kickass teams like Lane Johnson and Ronnie Stanley and Penei Sewell.  The 20th best tackle in win rate is just 4% off the number one guy.  Contrast that to pass rush win rate and it's a 12% difference between Myles Garrett and the 20th guy.

 

You don't need to spend a ton of resources to get food tackle play any more.  We're getting it with Leno already.

[Warhead36]

4 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Laremy Tunsil is good, but he's not a "true top tier blindsided protector." He's barely better than Charles Leno.  Maybe people don't realize it, but Leno is top ten in OT pass block win rate and top five in OT run block win rate this year, and our offense still sucks.  I question the impact of OTs any more in the shotgun spread era of the NFL.  When you look at the list of the most consistent block winners at OT, it's a whole bunch of no names like Brian O'Neill and Leno and Larry Borom and Garrett Bolles and  Kendall Lamm and Rasheed Walker and Dion Dawkins mixed in there with the pedigreed studs on kickass teams like Lane Johnson and Ronnie Stanley and Penei Sewell.  The 20th best tackle in win rate is just 4% off the number one guy.  Contrast that to pass rush win rate and it's a 12% difference between Myles Garrett and the 20th guy.

 

You don't need to spend a ton of resources to get food tackle play any more.  We're getting it with Leno already.

You dont need a stud elite franchise LT. What you need is a unit of five guys that collectively play well together with no obvious weak links. 

[philibusters]

6 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Laremy Tunsil is good, but he's not a "true top tier blindsided protector." He's barely better than Charles Leno.  Maybe people don't realize it, but Leno is top ten in OT pass block win rate and top five in OT run block win rate this year, and our offense still sucks.  I question the impact of OTs any more in the shotgun spread era of the NFL.  When you look at the list of the most consistent block winners at OT, it's a whole bunch of no names like Brian O'Neill and Leno and Larry Borom and Garrett Bolles and  Kendall Lamm and Rasheed Walker and Dion Dawkins mixed in there with the pedigreed studs on kickass teams like Lane Johnson and Ronnie Stanley and Penei Sewell.  The 20th best tackle in win rate is just 4% off the number one guy.  Contrast that to pass rush win rate and it's a 12% difference between Myles Garrett and the 20th guy.

 

You don't need to spend a ton of resources to get food tackle play any more.  We're getting it with Leno already.

 

Leno is having a good year.  74 PFF grade with a 79 pass pro grade and 63 run block grade.  Pass pro and durability are Leno's calling card.  His weaker areas are his running blocking (63 grade this year, 56 grade last year, 64 grade in 2021--so not a killer weakness, but certainly not a strength) and the fact while he doesn't suffer a ton of losses in pass pro, he does seem to have a higher percentage of his losses being quick losses than some other guys.  But a solid player all three years he has been here.   He flat out doesn't get the appreciation he deserves.  I see fans constantly trying to figure out how to replace him or cut him.  Chicago fans were the same way and in the three years since he left, that position has been downgraded from when he was there.

[Chris 44]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

You dont need a stud elite franchise LT. What you need is a unit of five guys that collectively play well together with no obvious weak links. 

This is how I feel also in addition coaching is huge for an O line also (dont skimp on the OL coach). I am really leaning against a LT in the first unless its obviously BPA and no other good option. Would much rather get a playmaker, real game changer, something we currently lack. Whether thats a TE, WR or even a LB on the Micah Parsons level. Dont get me wrong we need OL but I really think that you do not necessarily need that Trent Williams LT to be successful, Would be nice, but I think a real impact player at a "'skill" position would be better value.

[Going Commando]

If you accept the block win rate stats as an accurate reflection of the rate that OLs do their job correctly, then there just isn't that big a difference between the top guys and the middling starter at either the tackle or IOL spots.  I agree that if you build an entire line of middling sorts, build chemistry and continuity with them, then you can probably run a good line.  The challenge is that you don't need just five players to do it, you really need like 8 or possibly even 9.

[Koolblue13]

Just about every good team has an above average OL with at least one probowler. There is direct correlation there. You aren't going to get an Eagles OL with two future HoFers and the Best OT in the league, but 49ers with Trent and scrubs isn't enough. It's why they lost the championship last year (getting their QB hit) and probably won't make it back. Teams like the Chiefs with Humphrey and Thueny, The Lions with Ragnow and Sewell and some other solid pieces, Browns have Pocic, Bitono and Conklin, Ravens with Linderbaum, Zeltier and of course Moses, who've played together for a little while.

 

I can give some credence to the OTs aren't as valuable anymore and I preached my opinion the Center is now the most valuable OL position, which I think became even more obvious to all of us the last two weeks when we sat Gates and started Larson, who is clearly the more cerbial player.

 

These better teams have good to above average Tackle play, but the days of having an all pro LT and nothing else mattering are over. Especially with the bull**** penbalties that we're seeing more an more of.

 

You need a great center and solid guards. You need to build from the inside out these days.

 

I'm sure I screwed up a lot of names in here, but I haven't had my coffee and have a detached retina that makes the screen blurry, so soryy.

[DWinzit]

3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Just about every good team has an above average OL with at least one probowler. There is direct correlation there. You aren't going to get an Eagles OL with two future HoFers and the Best OT in the league, but 49ers with Trent and scrubs isn't enough. It's why they lost the championship last year (getting their QB hit) and probably won't make it back. Teams like the Chiefs with Humphrey and Thueny, The Lions with Ragnow and Sewell and some other solid pieces, Browns have Pocic, Bitono and Conklin, Ravens with Linderbaum, Zeltier and of course Moses, who've played together for a little while.

 

I can give some credence to the OTs aren't as valuable anymore and I preached my opinion the Center is now the most valuable OL position, which I think became even more obvious to all of us the last two weeks when we sat Gates and started Larson, who is clearly the more cerbial player.

 

These better teams have good to above average Tackle play, but the days of having an all pro LT and nothing else mattering are over. Especially with the bull**** penbalties that we're seeing more an more of.

 

You need a great center and solid guards. You need to build from the inside out these days.

 

I'm sure I screwed up a lot of names in here, but I haven't had my coffee and have a detached retina that makes the screen blurry, so soryy.

One eye or not, really good post Kool! Sorry to hear about your eye issue, sucks. 

[Koolblue13]

Just now, DWinzit said:

One eye or not, really good post Kool! Sorry to hear about your eye issue, sucks. 

Thanks bro. Yeah, it absolutely sucks but I'm working on it. No retina specialist on island and I can't fly after the surgery for 2-8 weeks, so trying to figure out what to do.

[DWinzit]

3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Thanks bro. Yeah, it absolutely sucks but I'm working on it. No retina specialist on island and I can't fly after the surgery for 2-8 weeks, so trying to figure out what to do.

Hard to believe nothing. My sister and brother in law lived on St. Thomas for a while and had issues of not having proper medical personnel. It was one reason why they eventually moved back.

 

Speaking football and QB's, sure looks like we were both right on wanting Tyson Bagent in the 7th round. He is at least a really good backup with potential to be a starter. Would have been great to have been on the bench this year and become our backup next year...or may have allowed us to trade Brissett last week

[Chris 44]

17 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Just about every good team has an above average OL with at least one probowler. There is direct correlation there. You aren't going to get an Eagles OL with two future HoFers and the Best OT in the league, but 49ers with Trent and scrubs isn't enough. It's why they lost the championship last year (getting their QB hit) and probably won't make it back. Teams like the Chiefs with Humphrey and Thueny, The Lions with Ragnow and Sewell and some other solid pieces, Browns have Pocic, Bitono and Conklin, Ravens with Linderbaum, Zeltier and of course Moses, who've played together for a little while.

 

I can give some credence to the OTs aren't as valuable anymore and I preached my opinion the Center is now the most valuable OL position, which I think became even more obvious to all of us the last two weeks when we sat Gates and started Larson, who is clearly the more cerbial player.

 

These better teams have good to above average Tackle play, but the days of having an all pro LT and nothing else mattering are over. Especially with the bull**** penbalties that we're seeing more an more of.

 

You need a great center and solid guards. You need to build from the inside out these days.

 

I'm sure I screwed up a lot of names in here, but I haven't had my coffee and have a detached retina that makes the screen blurry, so soryy.

This is where having 2 second and 3rd round picks this year could pay dividends with the OL. Play it smart, if a true  playmaker is available get him in the first, get some solid O line help in the 2nd and 3rd, look at LB and safety help. Having these extra picks could be huge for reshaping this team.

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Hard to believe nothing. My sister and brother in law lived on St. Thomas for a while and had issues of not having proper medical personnel. It was one reason why they eventually moved back.

 

Speaking football and QB's, sure looks like we were both right on wanting Tyson Bagent in the 7th round. He is at least a really good backup with potential to be a starter. Would have been great to have been on the bench this year and become our backup next year...or may have allowed us to trade Brissett last week

Yeah, our hospital was condemned after IrmaRia. It's pretty bad, but for a specialist you have to move.

 

Bagent is going to be good. As soon as my friend, who is his neighbor (and his kids played with him) started talking about him, I was in. Wish we grabbed him.

[Skinsinparadise]

For an O line that is winning, its not IMO about building middiling.  Build a good O line.  I get the idea of having no weak point.  A stud LT is mitigated if he's playing next to a crap LG, etc.  But that's a different point.  Yeah if you have an elite QB, you can likely survive middiling.   But heck Andy Reid considered by some the brightest offensive mind on the league and has an elite QB, yet he seems obsessed with builing a stellar O line.

 

Some NFL observors for example made fun of the Lions O line being so good yet the team is mediocre until they don't when it all comes together. So what's the point of having good blockers?   It takes time.  And it takes time for as young O line to gell and kick ass.

 

All of a sudden you add some weapons to a team ala a St. Brown, Laporta, J. Gibbs, Swift, AJ Brown and teams that don't thrive with a big time O line all of a sudden do.

 

A good O line is part of the symphony.   If the idea is a SB versus peaking at 9-8 IMO it matters.  Jared Goff looks like a potential SB QB with that line and weapons but he wouldn't here IMO -- even if we upgrade the o line to middiling.

 

The Giants are my favorite example.  The NY papers have talked about it plenty.   Eli moved from being a good (not great) QB to a crap QB when the Giants O line moved to top 5 to bottom 5. There were other factors, too but it didn't matter if they had big time weapons like Engram and Beckham, better weapons perhaps than their SB years on that front, Eli folded like a tent with the pressure.  Daniel Jones who am not a fan of but still think he's had a bad hand with that crap O line.

 

Some mentioned the Vikings putting in all that effort and yet not being hot in pass protection last year so shooting for the fences is it worth it?  Ditto Atlanta.  The Vikings have the 2nd rated O line by PFF in pass protection.  Some times (often) it takes time for young O lineman to evoive.  Look at Andrew Thomas going from punchline bust to an elite LT. 

 

Part of what sucks about Ron's crap work on this O line is it might take years to fix it because it often isn't a rapid kill it spot for rookies.    It's not an instant success spot always.  

 

The good news is Keim keeps mentioning the O line next off season.  So either that's coming from people close to Harris I gather or Ron finally figured out his crap work on the O line will likely cost him his job.  The next GM is clearly a wildcard but considering that the two best teams in this division both have good O lines and typically have for years.  While the 2 bad teams in this division don't.  I don't think the dude will think well the Eagles and Cowboys do it the wrong way -- lets double down on the Giants-Commanders mode of building a roster.

 

In the Giants case at least they've tried in recent years to fix it.  I know some suggested that's proof about why bother trying.  That to me is odd be like saying the Cardinals drafted Rosen high and he failed and had some other failures at QB, why take another shot?  You keep taking shots until it works.  The Vikings used to have a crap O line.  They took many shots, some of them failed, they stayed at it. 

 

 

https://nypost.com/2023/02/07/chiefs-overhauled-offensive-line-was-built-for-super-bowl-2023/

Chiefs’ overhauled offensive line was built for this Super Bowl 2023 moment

https://www.espn.com/blog/kansas-city-chiefs/post/_/id/31221/kansas-city-chiefs-rapid-offensive-line-overhaul-has-exceeded-almost-all-expectations

Kansas City Chiefs' rapid offensive line overhaul has exceeded almost all expectations

Edited November 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

This is where having 2 second and 3rd round picks this year could pay dividends with the OL. Play it smart, if a true  playmaker is available get him in the first, get some solid O line help in the 2nd and 3rd, look at LB and safety help. Having these extra picks could be huge for reshaping this team.

I agree. Shen talking about liking having 2 lower picks, than one high pick makes me will figure out how to slide back, too. High end tackle or slide back. 

 

That Bears second is in the money hole for LBer, Safety and IOL. I love having that pick.

[Thinking Skins]

 

 

[Chris 44]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

I agree. Shen talking about liking having 2 lower picks, than one high pick makes me will figure out how to slide back, too. High end tackle or slide back. 

 

That Bears second is in the money hole for LBer, Safety and IOL. I love having that pick.

Then its all going to come down to who is making the picks, no confidence in the current regime but hoping we bring in some stellar front office folks to get it right.

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, Chris 44 said:

Then its all going to come down to who is making the picks, no confidence in the current regime but hoping we bring in some stellar front office folks to get it right.

I'm not worried about it. RonMart is definitely out.

[MartinC]

17 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Thanks bro. Yeah, it absolutely sucks but I'm working on it. No retina specialist on island and I can't fly after the surgery for 2-8 weeks, so trying to figure out what to do.

I had a detached retina in 21. Right in the middle of Covid lockdowns. Don’t mess around with it get it done asap. 
 

By the way high chance you get cataracts in that eye within a year or so of the surgery. I did so that’s another surgery you might have to organize.

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I had a detached retina in 21. Right in the middle of Covid lockdowns. Don’t mess around with it get it done asap. 
 

By the way high chance you get cataracts in that eye within a year or so of the surgery. I did so that’s another surgery you might have to organize.

Do you mind PMing me about the process and how it was for you?

[Skinsinparadise]

[Llevron]

One thing I find cool is we are actually very close to our league leading time of possession from last season. Only 3 minutes behind which puts us in the top half of the league. And in the last 3 games we we are actually better than our average for the year in 2022. 

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/average-time-of-possession-net-of-ot

 

 

 

 

 

And because we throw the ball almost exclusively, you can feel safe in saying that's all because of how efficient Sam is in the short game. I know there are other numbers that contradict his efficiency and they don't lie. But this is a cool one to me. What I love about run first offenses more than anything is the TOP. Being able to take that and add the explosiveness of a passing game is dope and not something I ever really considered before.