The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[FootballZombie]

32 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think what you're trying to do by saying 2023 isn't guaranteed money and therefore he would demand a new contract is stating that the best part of the deal, the flexibility in out years, is actually not even there.  So BOTH 2022 is extremely high and you don't get the benefit of the future years because he will force a new contract.

 

Maybe not.  

 

Not a new contract, just converting Non-G money to G money in some shape or form. A restructure. As long as he knows he is your guy, he will want it, and if he is your unquestioned guy he will likely get it b/c you really don't want a grumpy QB when he does not have to be.

 

That can happen in a couple of ways. He could take a take a pay cut for the option of getting G money, or they can covert a lot of his 2023 pay to bonus instead of base salary. He gets a fat check and the team probably saves vs the cap.

 

Starting QBs playing on multi-year deals w/ no G money don't happen often. Your either going to need:

 

-A Jimmy G scenario where there is a devastatingly clear "your time is numbered" acquisition on the roster that robs the lead player of being the known future of the team.

-A Russ Wilson Scenario where the team is undergoing an ownership change that isnt set to be complete until Sept last I heard.

-Some kind of injury/absence that leads to a roll-back.

 

Any scenario where a QB knows he is your guy and is your almost assured future? He is gonna lock in some G money. He ain't sitting around for 2 years and risking injury, no matter how much he makes.

 

 

I'm not saying he will demanding a whole new 200 Mil deal after 2022 if he is still the guy. I'm just saying he'll certainly want some locked in cash if he clearly knows that management knows he is the guy in 2023 and beyond... He'll do what any QB would and elbow nudge every front office exec he passes in the hallway.

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by FootballZombie

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

 

Like what you just posted is not total BS and nonsense too! Get a grip man. Have another joint. Take a deep breath. 

 

So what you are really saying is that Wentz doesn't need to develop chemistry and sync with his players. He is just going to just throw the ball all over the place and the WRs will magically catch the ball without any timing.

 

You also needs to drop the TH bit every time I say Wentz. Okay.

 

 

You're the one that brought up TH last time by (laughably) trying to claim that you'd judge Wentz exactly the same as you judged TH.

 

Of course QBs need to develop chemistry with their receivers. That's not what this is about. It's about you trying (again, laughably) to make yourself out to be some sort of impartial QB observer who will judge each guy the same. We all know that's complete nonsense. You're a Hive guy, and you're probably still upset that he wasn't the guy and isn't getting another shot.

 

And that's fine. Nothing wrong with liking Heinicke more than Wentz and not being that psyched about us getting him. Just be honest about it.

[Cooleyfan1993]

7 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

You're the one that brought up TH last time by (laughably) trying to claim that you'd judge Wentz exactly the same as you judged TH.

 

Of course QBs need to develop chemistry with their receivers. That's not what this is about. It's about you trying (again, laughably) to make yourself out to be some sort of impartial QB observer who will judge each guy the same. We all know that's complete nonsense. You're a Hive guy, and you're probably still upset that he wasn't the guy and isn't getting another shot.

 

And that's fine. Nothing wrong with liking Heinicke more than Wentz and not being that psyched about us getting him. Just be honest about it.

Jeez, at this point you’re just being rude to the guy. You have no idea that he won’t be an impartial QB observer. Maybe wait until the season actually starts to see if he is or isn’t? Wouldn’t that be easier than crapping all over the guy all the time?  

[zCommander]

8 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

You're the one that brought up TH last time by (laughably) trying to claim that you'd judge Wentz exactly the same as you judged TH.

 

Of course QBs need to develop chemistry with their receivers. That's not what this is about. It's about you trying (again, laughably) to make yourself out to be some sort of impartial QB observer who will judge each guy the same. We all know that's complete nonsense. You're a Hive guy, and you're probably still upset that he wasn't the guy and isn't getting another shot.

 

And that's fine. Nothing wrong with liking Heinicke more than Wentz and not being that psyched about us getting him. Just be honest about it.

 

Be honest? Oh man... smdh! I have already said that. Not high on Wentz when we got him and really had nothing to do with whether or if I like TH. But apparently you have a memory issue and keep on repeating the same tribe over and over again no matter how many times I have said where I stand. 

 

BTW, I would have done the same with Fitz as well. So not just TH but you seem to be stuck on that point and you really need to get over it! 

 

 

[redskinss]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

If you're not going to cut the guy, and the Commanders won't cut Carson, then the contract is effectively guaranteed. And Carson and his agent know that.  

Barring injury though, that's usually why players want the guarantees.

If wentz balls out this year I could at bare minimum see that being an offseason topic next year, at least for the media.

How wentz handles it is obviously totally up to wentz but the alex Smith deal we gave when we traded for him instead of letting him play out the last year on his contract is a pretty sizeable reason for wentz to want guarantees.

That decision cost us tens of millions and would have cost smith that had he not renegotiated.

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Be honest? Oh man... smdh! I have already said that. Not high on Wentz when we got him and really had nothing to do with whether or if I like TH. But apparently you have a memory issue and keep on repeating the same tribe over and over again no matter how many times I have said where I stand. 

 

BTW, I would have done the same with Fitz as well. So not just TH but you seem to be stuck on that point and you really need to get over it! 

 

 

You can say something but I'm not necessarily going to take your word for it if your actual posting history on the subject is in opposition.

 

If I'm standing next to your car in broad daylight and hitting it with a hammer, which you can clearly see me doing, but I keep telling you over and over that I'm actually washing it, are you going to believe me or the fact that you can see what I'm actually doing?

[zCommander]

5 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

You can say something but I'm not necessarily going to take your word for it if your actual posting history on the subject is in opposition.

 

What was my posting history for Alex, Haskins, Allen, Kirk and RG3? Or your memory only goes back to last year...lol

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[skinny21]

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Wentz's cap his this year is completely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, especially since the Commanders STILL have $13m under the cap, and could clear another $3-10 if they wanted to pretty easily.  They have a top 15 QB and they're paying for a top 15 QB.  

Well, as I said, I’m fine with the direction they went.  Given the ability to roll over cap, I don’t see this year’s cap hit from Wentz as irrelevant, but to each their own.  If he has the 6th highest cap hit, I’m not sure about your top 15 comment?  Maybe I’m missing something, that’s been happening a lot, lol.

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

See my post above about a "decent" year from Mayfield.  He will get top 5 QB money if he hits the open market after a "good" season.  I define "Good" as one where other teams will think he definitely deserves to be a starting NFL QB.  

I will be shocked if he’s paid top 5 money next year (unless he has an outstanding season), but I could be way wrong to think that.

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

Wentz has historically been a BETTER QB than Mayfield though, and doesn't have the recent injury history.  Why try and go cheap and get a lesser player only to try and get another guy next year?  I don't understand this.

As I said, I’m good with what the team decided (and Mayfield wasn’t an option anyway).  With that said, acquiring Mayfield would have been (IMO) akin to going after Mariota or Trubisky - probably not the answer, but a cheap bridge qb (that could surprise).

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

 

He won't hold out for guaranteed money in 2023.  After 2023, he needs a new contract. Depending on how he plays, he would either be extended or cut at that point, is my guess.

 

The other option is he's playing well but not great, they want him for another year or two and they just franchise him.  I don't think he would like that, but at his age at that point, he would be getting guaranteed top 5 money for each of the franchise years, and that isn't bad.  

I will be surprised if he plays 2023 on his contract as currently structured.  Of course that’s not the same as saying I believe he’ll demand more money… it could be a conversion of salary to gtd money as others have mentioned.  But you could be right. 🤷‍♂️

 

@HigSkinAppreciate the info, but dang, I’ll LMAO if he sees 31mil next season.  Of course, who saw the Panthers spending that kind of resources on Darnold….

[Koolblue13]

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

What was my posting history for Alex, Haskins, Allen, Kirk and RG3? Or your memory only goes back to last year...lol

It really doesn't matter.  What matters is what your position has been on TH, and how you have argued vehemently that he was a good QB for a while.  

 

Then when we traded for Wentz, all these different narratives came up.  "I only wanted TH to start because I want our guy in 2023" was one of my favorites.  But there were others. I think setting the expectation for Wentz at 12 games minimum because he's twice as good a QB was another.  Whatever.    

 

Far be it for me to tell any poster how to post, but I think what has gotten under the skin of some of the other posters is your story has vacillated as you try and come up with new and creative ways to appear not to be in for TH, while still being in for TH. It's kindof like being passive aggressive about it.  

 

We had a poster a million years ago, something like McD5 or something like that, who had the biggest crush on Ladell Betts.  I mean, dude was insanely all over Betts, and we HAD Portis on the team, who was by any measure, better.  And even though he was given some crap for his position (ok, a whole lot of crap, if we're being honest), whether it be gentle ribbing, some outright corrections, some not so gentle ribbing, he stayed firm in his support of his guy even though it was completely against the grain and he had just about no support anywhere else. 

 

But he stuck to his guns, and didn't waver in his support, didn't try to make it seem like he had some other tangential position.  He just came out with it and stuck to it. Said on multiple occasions we should trade Portis.  I think he wanted us to trade Portis and sign ... Big WR from Arizona.  Boldin maybe?  Can't remember.  It was 15 years ago.  

 

He got a lot of crap, (and he gave a lot back) but everybody knew his position, and that was that.  

 

If you're in on TH for whatever reason, just be in on TH.  There isn't a reason for all the other gobledygook.  You might be right, you might be wrong.  Doesn't matter.  But I think what a few of us have tried to hint at is it's fine being a Hive member.  If that's your opinion, embrace it.  You WILL get crap for parts of it (for example, posting TH has a better completion percentage the Carson Wentz), but in the end, pick your hill and defend it.  If you die on that hill, so be it.  If you try and run around in the shrubbery, you're going to get shot from both sides.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I will be shocked if he’s paid top 5 money next year (unless he has an outstanding season), but I could be way wrong to think that.

There's no world which Cousins should have gotten top 5 money either and he did.  Fully guaranteed.

 

It's all about timing and leverage.  

 

For this scenario to play out, let's assume Baker plays at a top-15 level in 2022.  The consensus is, like with Cousins, he is "the best of the good."  

 

In this example, let's say Carolina wants to keep him, and not move on to Corral.  If you have a top-15 QB, you don't discard them easily.  

 

Ok, so now what?  Well, if Carolina wants to keep him, they have to sign him to a new contract.  Baker's agent, and I have no idea who this is, but I'm going to assume he/she is not a fool, will say, "Ok, if we don't sign, the only way you can keep Baker is to Franchise him.  We're fine testing the FA market. If you want him, negotiations start at the value of the franchise tag." By definition, this is top 5 money.   

 

The thing is, Baker wins no matter what.  Either he hits the open market as a starting QB, and look what Cousins got out of that situation.  Or he gets franchised.

 

In either scenario, Baker is making top 5 money strictly because of the leverage he has.  

 

The only way this doesn't play out is if he stinks, and he is not viewed as a starting QB.  Then he gets backup money, or "compete for a job" money.  That's different.

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I will be surprised if he plays 2023 on his contract as currently structured.  Of course that’s not the same as saying I believe he’ll demand more money… it could be a conversion of salary to gtd money as others have mentioned.  But you could be right. 🤷‍♂️

There's literally no reason to do this, and honestly, I can't remember a scenario where a team just shuffled existing money around to guarantee it.  90% of the time that happens, the reason is the team needs to clear cap space, so they approach the player with an offer to guarantee a percentage of the salary and convert it to a bonus.  Then the tag on 2 voidable years to spread the salary into periods after the contract is technically over.  

 

In that scenario, the player's typically are fine with it because they get the guaranteed money up-front as a bonus.  The team wins because it kicks the can down the road on the cap and makes room in the current league year.

 

But I don't remember (and honestly, I could just be forgetting, so if there is one or two that stick out, just remind me), of a situation where a player has gone to a team and said, "I want you to guarantee my contract" and the team has obliged.  

 

Wentz really has nothing to fear about getting his money.

 

Let's play this out with this hypothetical:  Wentz plays well in 2022.  Well enough that there is no question he is the starter going into 2023.  

 

Three things could legitimately happen:

 

- (most likely) Nothing.  Wentz's 2023 salary is practically guaranteed at this point. He's going to be on the team, they're going to pay him. You can't cut an injured player, so even if he suffers a torn ACL in the first practice of mini-camp, his 2023 salary is guaranteed. The risk to Wentz at this point is not the 2023 salary, it's the 2024 salary. However, in any scenario, the only way he doesn't get the money is he is released.  At which point he enters FA.  Which would not be bad for him. 

 

- (second most likely) The team wants to clear cap space to sign Sweat and other players, and they approach Wentz as I outlined above.  They probably guarantee the 2023 and half of the 2024 salary, and then kick it into 2 voidable years lowering the 2023 cap, but no new money.  This could happen, but it would be team initiated.  If Wentz asked for it, the team would say no.  The reason is to blows up their cap in future years and makes it harder to release Wentz.  So if the team had a good reason to do it, they would.  But they wouldn't do it for a player's request.  

 

- (third most likely, and I don't think very likely at all) They extend Wentz with 2 more years on his deal.  They give him a 3 year extension (most likely), with a signing bonus, raise his AAV to the mid-30's, and then spread the signing bonus over 5 years.  They would do this only if they were convinced Wentz was there guy for 5 more years, because at this point, the penalty of cutting him within 3 years is probably akin to what the Eagles paid.   

 

As far as I can see it, those are the most likely scenarios, and again, this is assuming something akin to the play from 2019 and 2021.  

 

If Wentz stinks, they will just release him outright, and be done with it. 

 

If Wentz plays at an MVP level, the third option becomes more likely because it's cheaper to do the extension earlier than wait until you HAVE to do the extension.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 hours ago, redskinss said:

How wentz handles it is obviously totally up to wentz but the alex Smith deal we gave when we traded for him instead of letting him play out the last year on his contract is a pretty sizeable reason for wentz to want guarantees.

The difference (I think) with Smith is he was actually going into the last year of his contract, and in order to get him to agree to the trade, they had to extend him.  And if they didn't HAVE to do it to convince him, then they needed to so they wouldn't find themselves in exactly the same situation at the end of 2018 with Smith they did with Cousins after 2015: Good QB, no contract.

 

The fact Wentz has 3 more years on his deal makes the situation very different.

 

And practically speaking, if Wentz makes it through 2022 with the belief he's the starter in 2023, then the 2023 salary is defacto guaranteed.  2024 is still at risk.  But again, if he's released for some reason after 2023, he hits FA. And that's not a terrible position either.  

 

If I were Wentz, I would view 2023 as guaranteed if he doesn't completely fall apart.  And then after 2023, he's either extended, released to hit FA, or plays out the last year of his deal.  The worst case scenario for him is he hits FA after 2023.  Which honestly, with this QB market, isn't terrible, unless he completely sucks eggs.  

[madden lot]

@Voice_of_Reason Great posts. This thread should be shut down until training camp. Kidding.. 

 

Everything you said aligns with the facts. The only thing i was concerned with once hearing of us trading for wents was was it our first round. Once i found out it wasn't i then i got on board. I actually love this move. 

 

So anyone who's up to calling kevin shenning s/p.. tell him there is actually someone out there that loves this move. 

 

Its Madden lot.

[zCommander]

32 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

It really doesn't matter.  What matters is what your position has been on TH, and how you have argued vehemently that he was a good QB for a while.  

 

Then when we traded for Wentz, all these different narratives came up.  "I only wanted TH to start because I want our guy in 2023" was one of my favorites.  But there were others. I think setting the expectation for Wentz at 12 games minimum because he's twice as good a QB was another.  Whatever.    

 

Far be it for me to tell any poster how to post, but I think what has gotten under the skin of some of the other posters is your story has vacillated as you try and come up with new and creative ways to appear not to be in for TH, while still being in for TH. It's kindof like being passive aggressive about it.

 

The narrative you speak of was there before we traded for Wentz when Rodgers and Wilson were not coming here and people were talking about Turbs and Mariotta. Your timeline is off a bit. Back then I clearly said instead of them we should just start TH and look for a QB in the 23 draft as 22 draft class was considered weak. But instead of having a conversation about it all of sudden I am a TH lover and so on. I liked Kirk too until I didn't. I don't die on a hill for anyone.

 

Don't we all come here to talk about what we think? Do I expect you to like what I say. Do I have to like what you say. Nope. Can I have a difference of opinion. Absolutely. I don't label people and call them idiots. You might have a strong opinion on something so can I. Did I ever label you or anyone else? No. Because that would be childish and I don't do that. 

 

Wentz is an upgrade but slightly. This is how I see things right now. If that changes then that would be great for the team. 

 

Personally, I just really don't understand why someone has to be so negative about our QB from last year. Because he had a weak arm? Not all QBs have all the talent. It is what you can do with what you have. Don't think we need to revisit that. TH was the backup and still is. Nothing has changed. 

 

By the way, I am not "into" TH even if I liked his style of play, however, I will compare to him or even Kirk or whomever when warranted. Let's just make that clear right now so there is no misunderstand later down the road. 

[skinny21]

@Voice_of_ReasonTwo obvious reasons to change the contract, or rather two that came to mind immediately…

1. Wentz plays really well and believes he’s being underpaid (Mayfield would apparently be making 31mil for lesser play).  Yes, he might be concerned about making waves, but he has leverage due to his production (on a team desperate for qb production).

2. Wentz plays pretty well, but is worried that the team will hold a TC battle between him and Howell, and Wentz could be a potential cut.  Howell has the benefit of a dirt cheap contract and the team saves a bunch of money they can use elsewhere (in 2023 or in 2024 after rolling the cap space over).  With no guaranteed money, Wentz is on the street long after teams have spent the big FA money and at risk to lose millions.  And he’s on to his 4th team in 4 years.  Prospects aren’t looking too great in that scenario.

 

 

[Conn]

The Wentz vs Mayfield debate is stupid at its core because Rivera would not have been able to wait until July 7th, long after the start of the offseason program and months after the draft, to finally make a move for a QB. We needed to get a vet he liked early enough to set up the rest of our offseason (regardless of how you feel about the rest of it and our quiet FA period, with no solution at QB going into JULY we’d be in a very rough position with no leverage—we’d have made a different rash move for a worse QB out of desperation, not waited for this weird Mayfield situation to play out as a consequence of the weird unprecedented Watson situation that hadn’t even happened yet). 

 

We’d probably have ended up over-drafting Howell or someone else in the 2nd or 3rd round of the draft, never knowing he could have fallen to us in the 5th, because we would’ve been so desperate for any hope at all at QB.

 

So when you say “I’m just comparing the two situations without context, purely Wentz at cost vs Mayfield at cost”, you’re living in a fantasy world far outside of reality. Nothing would have gone down the same way. While you’re in loony toons make believe land, you may as well say “would you rather have Wentz on his contract for what we traded or would you rather have drafted Tom Brady in 2000?” because you’re that outside of the real world timeline we live in. Get a grip.  

[mistertim]

13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

So Wentz is 8 times better than Heinicke. That means he has to win at least 28 games this season or the trade wasn't worth it.

[CobraCommander]

40 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

So Wentz is 8 times better than Heinicke. That means he has to win at least 28 games this season or the trade wasn't worth it.

3 preseason

17 regular season (2nd seed behind Rams)

4 Postseason

1 Probowl

 

I guess 25 wins would be ok with me. 

 

 

[zCommander]

48 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

So Wentz is 8 times better than Heinicke. That means he has to win at least 28 games this season or the trade wasn't worth it.

 

8 times better not throwing an INT...let's not get hysterical now.

[mistertim]

7 minutes ago, CobraCommander said:

3 preseason

17 regular season (2nd seed behind Rams)

4 Postseason

1 Probowl

 

I guess 25 wins would be ok with me. 

 

 

Yeah I might be able to live with 25 wins, but he'd still obviously be underperforming to expectations, so I assume that means we'd likely be able to get a very team friendly deal on a long term extension (that's if we even wanted to keep a guy who can't live up to his hype).

[Skinsinparadise]

Sheehan finally with some consistency this morning about Wentz.  He thinks Wentz > Mayfield because of his upside.

 

That's been my issue with Sheehan on this.  For a dude who in the past who has been obsessed with QB upside he should be on board with this move based on that alone.  Not that it matters. 

 

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

8 times better not throwing an INT...let's not get hysterical now.

 

Me in this thread sometimes:

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by mistertim

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah I might be able to live with 25 wins, but he'd still obviously be underperforming to expectations, so I assume that means we'd likely be able to get a very team friendly deal on a long term extension (that's if we even wanted to keep a guy who can't live up to his hype).

 

Realistically how many games you expect Wentz to win?