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The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut


Koolblue13

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22 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

IMO Ryan and Wentz are very different QBs, so not sure what you mean by this. Ryan is mostly a pure pocket passer who's very accurate, has an ok but not elite arm, and has generally been a bit more of a high tier game manager. Wentz is more of a scrambler/improviser, has a cannon for an arm, and has always been more of a gunslinger.

 

Yeah I'd agree with that.   Ryan and Wentz are very different cats as for how they play.

 

Ryan has been for most of his career IMO in that 8-10 range of QBs in the league, top ten but lower top 10.  Last year was his worst season in eons so certainly not top 10.  So the mystery with him is does 2021 set the new trend or is that a one off year.  But even if it was a one off year, clearly at his age he's not the future.

 

Considering the Colts beef with Wentz (and supposedly this includes both Ballard and Reich though they were willing to roll the dice again on it) was lack of consistency and clutch play -- it doesn't seem that wild to me that they are jazzed about Ryan because he's known for his consistency and he's fairly clutch.  But again i think the mystery about Ryan is did 2021 foretell a decline?

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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4 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Ryan and Cousins average more yards over the last 5 years than Wentz has gotten in his career high season. These numbies don't add up that way

Its not all about yards (or completion percentage). Its a totality of the stats, including rushing stats. I'm not trying to say which metric is better. But looking at last year we see that Wentz beats Ryan in 15 categories compared to 7 for Ryan. We could do that for every year and I'm confident the numbers wouldn't be as dominant in favor for Wentz but that he would have a lot of categories where he wins in at least 3 of those 5 years. Just looking at the rating and QBRs we see

101.9, 102.2, 93.1, 72.8, 94,6, and 78.5, 62, 62.8, 41.9, 54.7 - Wentz

91.4, 108.1, 92.1, 93.3, 90.4 and 67.1, 65.7, 59.6, 59.8, 46.1 - Ryan

93.9, 99.7, 107.4, 105.0, 103.1 and 56.0, 59.5, 60.4, 55.8, 52.3 - Cousins

 

You can argue that other things (TDs Comp% AY/A, etc are more important) but I'm not trying to get into the weeds of the argument because they play different games. But I am saying that they will get you to similar places as a QB. I think all three are in the 10-15 range of QBs with the potential to have a year that puts them in the 5-10 range. 

26 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Wentz entire playoff resume is 1/4 25% comp percentage 3 yds and a sack. Pretty sure both Kirk and Ryan have him beat there.

 

Even on your grading scale, those rankings are iffy.

Very true but he was on the virge of having a resume before the injury in 2018 and that's the cause of the all the Flacco then Hurts drama. Dude had them at 11-2 and they didn't believe in him.

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32 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

If it were for nothing, side by side, I'd take Wentz over Ryan. I've never been much of a fan of Ryan and I have been of Wentz.

 

Amazing how we went from a weakness and absolute gapping hole of a QB room, to a positive strength. I know there are questions, but Wentz, Heini and Howell is a good looking QB room.

 

Yeah I think there's a difference between acknowledging that Ryan has been a better or at least more consistent QB over his career than Wentz, and saying you'd rather have Ryan over Wentz. I would definitely take Wentz.

 

I was completely uninterested in bringing Ryan in here over the offseason. He's old and has never been (IMO) more than a plus game manager QB, outside of his one All Pro year, but I think that had more to do with Shanny's system than Ryan suddenly becoming an elite QB.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean that Wentz is the answer, but at least he still has plenty of upside and hopefully plenty of years of play left in him. I think Ryan is on his last legs and probably won't do much for the Colts. They'll be back to looking for a QB again pretty soon. 

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5 hours ago, Simmsy said:

I know McAffe was a Colt, so there is some bias there, but he's starting to get on my nerves now. I didn't get a chance to watch this yet, but I'm sure its the ramblings of a drunken fool.

 

 

 

i have never paid much attention to McAfee...To me he always came off as a loudmouth asshole.

 

Wentz is our starter, and I'm good with that. **** Irsay and Matty slush, I am focued on the new season. 

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14 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Knowing the system is a bad argument because the system is different for Heinicke because of his limitations. You're gonna see a different playbook with a QB with an actual NFL arm.

 

The 'system' is the same - (language, playbook/concepts etc). The play calling is what changes.

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1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

Its not all about yards (or completion percentage). Its a totality of the stats, including rushing stats

 

On top of averaging more yards than Wentz has ever gotten, Over the last 5 seasons Cousins has rushed for more yards, thrown 27 more TDs, ties on Ints, avged a 68.5% comp % to Wentz 62.7%, played in more playoff games and won a playoff game.

 

Even on your metrics, its not close.

 

 

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

Just looking at the rating and QBRs we see

 

Comparing Wentz stats last season to any QB that had real responsibility like Ryan glosses over the key principle that Wentz did not face the same responsibilities as many QBs.

 

Ryan played with one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL and had a bad D to boot. Opposing D's did everything in their power to stop Ryan, as his passing was the only threat. Matt Ryan was the team for ATL, it was all on him. He did everything he did while having to lift a mountain on his back.

 

Indy had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, paired with a top 10 scoring D. Opposing D's stacked the box to stop Taylor which gives pass friendly opportunities. The team surrounding him was so strong, Wentz had games where he passed for 57 yards and won b/c his D and run game dominated. Other games he would put up 106 yards on 55% passing, but be awarded an astronomical QBR b/c Taylor rushes for half a billion yards and the blowout skews the QBR metric.

 

Due to their run heavy Offense he simply did not have the responsibility other QBs had. He didn't have to carry his team, he was carried by his team. Everything he did was with a wind at his back.

 

If you ranked every QB on QBR you'd have Wentz over Russel Wilson, Burrow and Prescott last year. Its a terrible way to rank QBs

 

Edited by FootballZombie
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IMO some underestimate Ryan.  Until last year he had 10 years cooking for 4000 pus yards.  Had three bordeline elite type of seasons in that mix including finishing tops in QBR one season.

 

I am bringing this up because i am not bothered by the Ryan > Wentz stuff.  Personnel guys have been quoted that's so in this off season.  the PFF guys agree.  Few wouldn't agree with that.  Also the Colts liking Ryan for the very two things that they supposedly internally (Ballard and Reich too) were bothered about Wentz which is lack of consistency and lack of clutch play makes sense too.

 

But thing in play IMO is very simple.   If Wentz finds his groove, he's hitting his prime years.  If Ryan does, he's near the end.  And that IMO matters a lot. 

 

But I think people would feel better about the Ryan > Wentz if they had a little more respect for Ryan.  But yeah if i thought Ryan had a career where he was just slightly above average it would bother me too.  But Ryan has had a really good career. 

Believe It or Not, Matt Ryan Is the NFL's Most Clutch Quarterback

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1487978-believe-it-or-not-matt-ryan-is-the-nfls-most-clutch-quarterback

 

He's IMO much better than a slightly above average starter, judging by the past.   But Ryan after all these very good seasons (not slightly above average but very good) had a season like some think here typifies his career where he just slightly above average but nothing to write home about so is that a new trend?  If so that's not good. 

 

 

Year
Team
CMP%
YDS
TD
INT
Rating
 
2021
67.0
3,968
20
12
90.4
 
2020
65.0
4,581
26
11
93.3
 
2019
66.2
4,466
26
14
92.1
 
2018
69.4
4,924
35
7
108.1
 
2017
64.7
4,095
20
12
91.4
 
2016
69.9
4,944
38
7
117.1
 
2015
66.3
4,591
21
16
89.0
 
2014
66.1
4,694
28
14
93.9
 
2013
67.4
4,515
26
17
89.6
 
2012
68.6
4,719
32
14
99.1
 
2011
61.3
4,177
29
12
92.2
Edited by Skinsinparadise
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If the QB doesn’t pass for 32-34 plus TDs consistently, then he belongs with QBs 12-25. If he’s in the 20s in terms of TD passes, he’s not too far off from Dilfer with Ravens. 
 

22 passing TDs and below equals Dilfer in todays NFL. 
 

Solved it. You’re welcome. 

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21 minutes ago, wit33 said:

If the QB doesn’t pass for 32-34 plus TDs consistently, then he belongs with QBs 12-25. If he’s in the 20s in terms of TD passes, he’s not too far off from Dilfer with Ravens. 
 

22 passing TDs and below equals Dilfer in todays NFL. 
 

Solved it. You’re welcome. 

 

By your metric then there were only 9 QBs in 2021 who ranked in your top 11 definition (if thats logically possible!). The 10th QB was Wentz with 27 TDs.

 

I hesitate to continue the Wentz versus Ryan comparison but Ryan only had 20 pass TDs last season, the same number as one Taylor Heinicke.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

IMO some underestimate Ryan.  Until last year he had 10 years cooking for 4000 pus yards.  Had three bordeline elite type of seasons in that mix including finishing tops in QBR one season.

 

This is exactly why I call him the EPITOME of Kirk Cousins. He has all the regular season stats stuff (hello he had Julio. I was never impressed just like I wasn't impressed with Stafford and Megatron). But his teams were constantly making the playoffs and getting bounced. People kept up with the woe is me stuff for him but I just don't buy it. He got two coaches fired because he couldn't win in the playoffs (ok, I sound a lot meaner towards him right now than i really am, I'm really more meh). He's the perfect guy for a team to rely on to get them back on a rebuild, but not who I want to lead my boys to go all the way. 

 

I'm not saying that Wentz is better than Ryan, just that they're in the same tier. With Ryan on the decline and Wentz (hopefully) still in his prime. Cousins entered this conversation (from my end) because he's the king of those stats but not winning the games, not getting the december wins and not winning in the playoffs. Wentz is there too but I just think that because of his age, he has more of an opportunity to show that he can do more than those two did (as far as being a winning/franchise QB). But right now yeah, I don't think I'd put him above Ryan and I'd agree that they're different style of QBs so its not like they're being asked to do the same things. 

 

That said, I do think that THIS OFFENSE we're setting up for Wentz can get the most out of his abilities. I don't want to rely too much on rookies like Doctson / Robinson / or Turner but they do add a dynamic to the offense that we didn't have last year. So hopefully we will be able to ground and pound with a two headed monster or throw it deep to a trio of speedy WRs or throw it over the middle to some TEs who have good hands or Cam Sims (or maybe Harmon / AGG). I think its setting up to give Carson a really good year.

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1 hour ago, MartinC said:

That is not how QBR works.

 

Not in the sense of RB yards effecting a score, but it does have a major impact

 

QBR is a score of how a QB performs given their input

 

 

If the run game totally dominates a game, and the QB handles their limited responsibilities in such a blow-out adequately, they are awarded a large QBR.

 

Under the right scenarios, like Indy vs Buff, a QB can go out, throw for 106 yards on 55% accuracy (11/20) and still get awarded a large QBR number.

 

Wentz got a QBR of 71.9 for this game despite doing next to nothing. All b/c the colts run game went bananas.

 

 

Extrapolating that to the rest of the Colts games, they featured a heavy rushing philosophy, which limits the role and responsibility for Wentz leading to the same effect, albeit on a smaller scale when the games are not blowouts.

 

On the other hand, a QB who is the focal point of their offense can go 25/40 62.5% 336 yds 2 TDs 1 INT and a whopping 72 yds total from the run game gets graded a 64.3 like Matt Ryan vs the Dolphins.

 

Having a dominant run game, especially in blow outs greatly skews the QBR metric b/c it does not factor in the weight a QB has to lift. Wentz doing little more than handing the ball off to Taylor vs the Bills is not the same task as Ryan having to win a game by himself. Even if Wentz secured a higher QBR, the game Ryan had was twice as good at least.

 

You can not use QBR to try and compare a QB who's responsibilities are limited, to a QB who had to carry the world on their shoulders. Matt Ryan has to be so much more of his team than someone who does not have their Offense built around them, Its such a heavier lift.

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The pro stat that I think it most telling for QB success is TD/INT ratio. I haven’t figured out how to completely equalize it, but I also factor in Fumbles/Rush TD.

 

Somewhere in that 4:1 range is the elite, but they have to be above a certain about of touchdowns for that to stick. 
 

Something like 40:10.

 

Somewhere in 3:1 is above average

 

2:1 is a good NFL starter.

 

1.X:1 is meh. Upgrade.

 

Under 1:1 is not good.

 

But there are other factors. Rodgers has a ridiculous TD:TO ratio, much better than Brady. But Brady has a lot more Lombardi’s. So… there’s always more to it than any stat.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Not in the sense of RB yards effecting a score, but it does have a major impact

 

QBR is a score of how a QB performs given their input

 

 

If the run game totally dominates a game, and the QB handles their limited responsibilities in such a blow-out adequately, they are awarded a large QBR.

 

Under the right scenarios, like Indy vs Buff, a QB can go out, throw for 106 yards on 55% accuracy (11/20) and still get awarded a large QBR number.

 

Wentz got a QBR of 71.9 for this game despite doing next to nothing. All b/c the colts run game went bananas.

 

 

Extrapolating that to the rest of the Colts games, they featured a heavy rushing philosophy, which limits the role and responsibility for Wentz leading to the same effect, albeit on a smaller scale when the games are not blowouts.

 

On the other hand, a QB who is the focal point of their offense can go 25/40 62.5% 336 yds 2 TDs 1 INT and a whopping 72 yds total from the run game gets graded a 64.3 like Matt Ryan vs the Dolphins.

 

Having a dominant run game, especially in blow outs greatly skews the QBR metric b/c it does not factor in the weight a QB has to lift. Wentz handing the ball off to Taylor vs the Bills is not the same task as Ryan having to win a game by himself. Even if Wentz secured a higher QBR, the game Ryan had was twice as good at least.

not exactly. QBR is based on EPA, invented by Brian Burke. 

 

EPA is just a look at historically the probability of scoring on the next play from a given position on the field (I believe its just yard mark, but it could take into account hash) and the time (I think time is factored in). 

https://quorasessionwithbrianburke.quora.com/Is-QBR-a-good-statistic-to-measure-a-quarterback

 

 

Quote

Here's how QBR works. It measures the impact of every play a QB is centrally involved in using Expected Points. EP measures the likely impact on the net score (the lead/deficit). A 10-yard gain on 1st and 10 from the 50 historically impacts the score by an average of 0.6 points, so the Expected Points Added of that play is +0.6. It's a bit more complicated than that, but that's the idea. We can measure EP for any combination of down, distance, and field position.

 

 

QBR then apportions credit for each play according to several factors. A short pass where the WR runs for a lot of yards after catch (YAC) gives less credit to the QB than a deep pass. QBs get more credit for plays when there are more pass rushers. Turnovers, runs, and scrambles are considered as well.

 

 

"Trash time" is also considered. Plays that occur when the game is still on the line are fully weighted, but plays that occur when the game is largely decided are given little weight.

Finally, the result is turned into a per-play "rate" stat. It is then presented as normalized on a 0-100 scale, where 50 is average and 100 would be near-perfect.

 

I read this and it gave me a much better appreciation of QBR. THe fact that its based on EPA which is a concrete stat that I can wrap my head around makes me believe in it more. I still don't think of it (or any stat) as the Holy Grail, but I think its informative. 

Edited by Thinking Skins
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17 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

QBR is based on EPA, invented by Brian Burke. 

 

That is exactly what I described and has the same issues I described.

 

As long as a QB handles their role well, they are awarded under QBR.

 

But there is a big difference between a player that handles a limited role well, and a player that handles an expansive role well. Even if the QBR on the expanded role player is lower, he is the vastly superior product as he is asked to do far more, but QBR does not properly convey that.

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57 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Not in the sense of RB yards effecting a score, but it does have a major impact

 

QBR is a score of how a QB performs given their input

 

It simply doesn't. QBR attempts to isolate the QB impact. Read the piece I link from ESPN which explains how QBR is calculated. 

 

I think it is reasonable to question how far QBR really does measure QB effectiveness but it attempts to isolate their impact from the benefit of having a strong running game and the relative strength of defenses they face. From the article I linked.

 

"QBR also strives to separate the performance of the individual quarterback from the rest of his team, all in an effort to rate the overall efficiency of each quarterback in the league."

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6 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Oddly enough, I'm not sure if there is a QB in the NFL who has stayed healthier than Ryan.

 

in his 14 year career, dude has missed three games total.

in the last 12 years he has missed 1.

 

That is despite taking a lot of sacks. (Near the top of the league over almost any span if I remember correctly)

Absolutely Un-explainable durability.

Totally agree and more over.. dude with his pads off is rail thin. His durability always boggled my mind. 

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3 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

On top of averaging more yards than Wentz has ever gotten, Over the last 5 seasons Cousins has rushed for more yards, thrown 27 more TDs, ties on Ints, avged a 68.5% comp % to Wentz 62.7%, played in more playoff games and won a playoff game.

 

Even on your metrics, its not close.

 

 

 

Comparing Wentz stats last season to any QB that had real responsibility like Ryan glosses over the key principle that Wentz did not face the same responsibilities as many QBs.

 

Ryan played with one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL and had a bad D to boot. Opposing D's did everything in their power to stop Ryan, as his passing was the only threat. Matt Ryan was the team for ATL, it was all on him. He did everything he did while having to lift a mountain on his back.

 

Indy had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, paired with a top 10 scoring D. Opposing D's stacked the box to stop Taylor which gives pass friendly opportunities. The team surrounding him was so strong, Wentz had games where he passed for 57 yards and won b/c his D and run game dominated. Other games he would put up 106 yards on 55% passing, but be awarded an astronomical QBR b/c Taylor rushes for half a billion yards and the blowout skews the QBR metric.

 

Due to their run heavy Offense he simply did not have the responsibility other QBs had. He didn't have to carry his team, he was carried by his team. Everything he did was with a wind at his back.

 

If you ranked every QB on QBR you'd have Wentz over Russel Wilson, Burrow and Prescott last year. Its a terrible way to rank QBs

 

 

Also to add to your general point, surprisingly the Colts Oline was in the bottom half of the league in pass pro which would further hurt Wentz numbers 

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1 hour ago, MartinC said:

It simply doesn't. QBR attempts to isolate the QB impact. Read the piece I link from ESPN which explains how QBR is calculated. 

 

I think it is reasonable to question how far QBR really does measure QB effectiveness but it attempts to isolate their impact from the benefit of having a strong running game and the relative strength of defenses they face. From the article I linked.

 

"QBR also strives to separate the performance of the individual quarterback from the rest of his team, all in an effort to rate the overall efficiency of each quarterback in the league."

 

That last line is just another way of saying  "QBR is a score of how a QB performs given their input."

 

 

I understand what its tries to do but as that stat is constructed it simply can not do it well. Various factors will always skew its metrics.

 

You can try to separate a QBs input all you want, but at the end of the day, it is not a good representation of the differences that are required of a QB on different teams.

 

 

Like the game vs Buffallo, Wentz has to do very little and only throws for 100 yds, the QBR score can't properly reflect that. It can only show what Wentz did, with the role he was given earned him a 70+. Since there was a massive rushing onslaught that game, his role was small, but Wentz was not a large factor to the teams success in this game.

 

Another QB who has to carry their team can put up a 60+ QBR game, like my Matt Ryan example. Despite being the main reason for his teams victory and having next to no help from his running game behind him.

 

If you were to compare the QBR of these two games, Wentz' would be higher, even though his role was minuscule in comparison. QBR simply can not convey the information that what was required of Wentz, was not the same as what was required of Ryan.

 

When it comes down to a QBs roll within a game/team/season, QBR just can't show it, and that plays a major factor in knowing which QB is better or more valuable than whom.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Like the game vs Buffallo, Wentz has to do very little and only throws for 100 yds, the QBR score can't properly reflect that. It can only show what Wentz did, with the role he was given earned him a 70+. Since there was a massive rushing onslaught that game, his role was small, but Wentz was not a large factor to the teams success in this game.


QBR is specifically designed to try to do what you say it can’t. You might be right that it’s not accurately measuring what it try’s to - but it IS trying to reflect the impact of the QB in isolation from all other factors.

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10 minutes ago, MartinC said:

QBR is specifically designed to try to do what you say it can’t. You might be right that it’s not accurately measuring what it try’s to - but it IS trying to reflect the impact of the QB in isolation from all other factors.

 

Exactly.

And by doing that it fails to display a QBs impact on a specific game or season, just an attempt to show their effectiveness in the role and responsibility they played in that specific game or season.

 

And if QBs all have varying amounts of responsibilities then a comparison of their effectiveness in their respective roles is not a comparison of which QB is better.

 

QBR is nothing more then telling you how a QB performed in a role, w/o any information about what that role actually is.

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2 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Exactly.

And by doing that it fails to display a QBs impact on a specific game or season, just an attempt to show their effectiveness in the role and responsibility they played in that specific game or season.

 

And if QBs all have varying amounts of responsibilities then a comparison of their effectiveness in their respective roles is not a comparison of which QB is better.


We seem to be talking across each other. Your responses to my posts don’t seem to reflect what I am trying to say. 
 

But let’s just move on! 🙂

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1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

 

That is exactly what I described and has the same issues I described.

 

As long as a QB handles their role well, they are awarded under QBR.

 

But there is a big difference between a player that handles a limited role well, and a player that handles an expansive role well. Even if the QBR on the expanded role player is lower, he is the vastly superior product as he is asked to do far more, but QBR does not properly convey that.

Yeah but it takes into account things like EPA which is critical to a QBs Play. If its 3rd and 20 and a QB throws for 17 yards, then the team is still punting (likely) but if its 3rd and 1 and the QB gets it (either with a run or a pass) then he should have a higher QBR than the QB who got 17 on third and 20. You're discounting EPA and trying to say things like Yards, completion percentage, aypa, etc are better. I'm not just a QBR guy because of Wentz, but I was looking at it a lot with Heinicke and a lot of QBs who run the ball because they do not get their running abilities added to the formula for passer rating. 

 

Matt Ryan is doing more, so by definition he should have better stats like yards and yards per game. But look at the other things like the percentages

TD%:

Ryan - 3.8, 5.8, 4.2, 4.2, 3.6

Wentz - 7.5, 5.2, 4.4, 3.7, 5.2

 

Int %: 

Ryan - 2.3, 1.2, 2.3, 1.8, 2.1

Wentz - 1.6, 1.7, 1.2, 3.4, 1.4

 

AY/A

Ryan - 7.5, 8.7, 7.1, 7.4, 6.8

Wentz - 8.3, 7.9, 7.0, 5.2, 7.3

 

Rushing first downs

Ryan - 11, 15, 10, 8, 9

Wentz - 27, 8, 21, 25, 21

 

Rushing TDs, 

Ryan - 0, 3, 1, 2, 1

Wentz - 0, 0, 1, 5, 1

 

Rushing Y/G

Ryan - 8.9, 7.8, 9.8, 5.8, 4.8

Wentz - 23, 8.5, 15.2, 23, 12.6

 

So you can see that they are different QBs but 3 of the 5 years you see Wentz consistently beating or at least on par with Ryan in these areas. They're both good at moving the team up and down the field but not necessarily at winning games. 

 

I don't like including Cousins in this because he has been working with some of the league's best WRs in Minnesota but as I think about it, so has Ryan so what's his excuse. Sure his team has no defense, but that means he should be putting up more stats, but when you look at things he's just not head and shoulders above Wentz. They're both middle of the pack QBs with the ability to be great when everything goes right. 

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