The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Voice_of_Reason]

16 minutes ago, Burgold said:

First of all, Washington can’t get Watson. They’re under the stink of sexual harassment allegations themselves and even Goodell seems pissed at them about it. 
 

2nd it’s clear Watson will never play again for his current team. Given that, the salary hit, and all the suits against him any team trying to trade for him at a premium or market value is stupid. You offer a basement offer and dare the team to keep him and pay him for nothing two years in a row. 
 

After all, any team that trades for Watson is doing Houston a huge favor. 

I have a feeling this is going to be a "hold my beer" type of thing. 

[ExoDus84]

2 hours ago, Darth Tater said:

Wilson is going to pull a Watson.

 

That sound you just heard was all the massage therapists in Seattle gasping.

[wit33]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

The thing is the QBs have become more powerful than ever.

 

I recall not that long ago some argued that the QB position would if anything be on the demise because their thought was teams would realize that the money allocated woouldn't be worth it considering how it would effect the rest of the roster.  But the trend has been the opposite and in a big way.

 

The fantasy some had that teams would sign their version of Andy Dalton, they'd consume 7% of the cap or whatever, load the team up with a strong supporting cast, and they'd Nick Foles their way to success like that one off Eagles season.  But that notion hasn't caught fire if anything it's headed to the other extreme if teams not wanting to be manned by dudes like Andy Dalton and doing whatever it takes to get that QB because they don't want to rest their team's fortunes on being that one off outlier team. 
 

 

Mahomes  2.4 %   2019

Brady 5.8%   2020

Stafford 10.7%   2021

 

It’s pretty consistent that the QB earns between 5-10% when winning the SB, outliers exist both ways. 

 

 

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

 

There are quite a few teams that need a QB that I'd say have much better supporting casts. And that isn't even factoring in the toxic cloud that hangs over this franchise.

 

This is no longer true. Embrace it, the team overalls is top half of the league good. Ron and company have turned around the roster well and just need a QB. 

[Skinsinparadise]

34 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

It probably is second hand to his agent.

 

But he's also said it in front of every single live mike he can get himself in front of in the last 2 months.  I think he's issued that party line more than a Presidential Candidate giving stump speech 3 weeks before an election.  

 

If anybody doesn't know this pitch at this point, it's because they have moved to Tahiti and foregone the internet.  

 

Agree about the stump message.  That is clearly done by design.  Ditto also those planted stories with guys like Breer, Garafolo, Silver, etc.  So we agree on that.

 

I've read a few stories about how to poke interest in players and send targeted messages especially to prospective FAs before the tampering period.  It was heavy on the FO ofifcials from teams talking to their players agents.  And those talks are often direct talks.  What isn't direct is you don't flat out mention the players name.

 

Lets say you are interested in Wilson.  If you have an excuse to talk to his agent, you can say to the agent in general we are really hunting hard for a QB, and then you lay it on thick about what you got cooking without ever mentioning Wilson's name.   You can even talk about hypotetically that you are willing to pay a QB 40 million as long as you don't say Wilson.

 

The most interesting article I read about it was a MMQ article (if I got the right source) that talked about how Kirk's agent knew what teams liked him and what they were willing to pay him just via abstract conversations and that's how this stuff is commonly manipulated and set up in advance.

 

In Wilson's case I gather its interesting from one angle because if I recall his agent does primarily baseball contracts so that one might be harder.

 

As we all know a lot of conversations happen at the combine so this week should be interesting.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

28 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Mahomes  2.4 %   2019

Brady 5.8%   2020

Stafford 10.7%   2021

 

 

You missed the gist of my point.  Plus you seem to be determined to grossly misrepresent the Rams cap situation at QB no matter how many times I explain it to you so I give up debating it.  

Edited February 27, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I feel like there are major knocks on every one of these QBs, but Ridder has the head to fix it. No amount of work is going to fix not being physically gifted (height, weight, ridiculously small baby hands, glass knees), so on that front alone I like that gamble most. 

 

Hes a winner, who lives, breathes, eats football, put his team on his back and led them to unprecedented winning and constantly improved doing it.

 

I am OK with all these guys personality wise.  As for Ridder being a winner, I know that's the line some like to use for him.  To some extent that's true.  It's ironically the same line people used with Tua before he hit the NFL.  Dolphin insiders early on were saying how they got a "winner" in Tua.  Will see if it unfolds that way.  Not sure about Ridder.  Maybe. He certainly didn't look like winner against Alabama, he was really bad in that game and it was a high stakes game.  Corral wasn't hot against Alabama either but IMO played distinctly better than Ridder did against them.  But in plenty of other games he looked like a winner.

 

I said before the Senior Bowl that I'd weigh and pay attention to the personality-intangibles scuttlebutt even if they don't flow to a tee to my QB rankings. So to be true to my word....

 

The dude that won that component of the Senior Bowl was Pickett and from what I heard he won it by a mile.   Hard worker.  Charismatic.  Leader.  Smart.  And some say it wasn't even close when it came to the interviews as to which QB impressed the most, so I got to give him props.  It doesn't make him my top QB.  He's still #4.  But I am ok if they take him because I grade up any QB on a curve if they are the dude that stands out the most as to intangibles.

 

As far as Ridder goes.  I am cool with it.  Again I am riding with my Drew Lock compairson for him, I can easily see failure, I can easily see success.  It's not hard to build the narratives for either thing IMO.    They are different types of QBs but their wild inconsistencies remind me of each other. 

 

Matt Corral's interviews should be interesting.  It's the first go of it for him.

 

The dude that I have a hard time getting a handle on personality wise is Sam Howell.  I've read and heard that he's a quiet dude.  Nagy doubled down on that in a recent interview.  Yet according to a couple of reporters he was a bit robotic in his press interviews during the Senior Bowl compared to most, according to one, he kept saying he's a man of God and a leader any chance he can.  I do think he's the type that leads by example versus lets say his words.  But does a leader have to say over and over again that he's a leader?  It seems odd. 

 

I am not as high on Pickett as some.  But I mentioned even before the Senior Bowl he comes off as the most charismatic guy of the bunch in interviews.  So I've heard enough that I'll give him the winner of the personality contest at the Senior Bowl.  I''ve heard variations of it wasn't even close between Pickett and the other guys as for who impressed teams in one on one interviews which obviously includes Ridder.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Darth Tater]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

This is no longer true. Embrace it, the team overalls is top half of the league good. Ron and company have turned around the roster well and just need a QB. 

I would say that anyone who disagrees with this must be a TH fan. You don't go 7-10 with a below par roster unless you have an above par QB.

 

The problem is that no player currently in the league probably remembers us in a very positive light. Even before the current stuff came to light, you had us messing up the Kirk Cousin situation, problems with the training staff and a dump of a stadium.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Darth Tater

[Mrshadow008]

29 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

I would say that anyone who disagrees with this must be a TH fan. You don't go 7-10 with a below par roster unless you have an above par QB.

 

The problem is that no player currently in the league probably remembers us in a very positive light. Even before the current stuff came to light, you had us messing up the Kirk Cousin situation, problems with the training staff and a dump of a stadium.

I disagree w/ this to an extent most inside the league players/coaches/staff understand and pay attention to other stuff in the league way more than we do. Front office staff and coaching staff are mostly pretty well respected around the league. Players/ executives usually know pretty well what each roster offers. Key in point that Russ wouldn’t be opposed to coming here this year when he wasn’t last year. Another key point here is we’ve gotten to a point where numerous national analysts and nfl executives have said this roster is ready to go in a winnable division and that it just needs qb. If execs and analysts have noticed it players around league will have as well. 

[mistertim]

4 hours ago, SonnySideUp said:

Wow. This is interesting. According to SI, Odds makers now have Watson to Washington. 3 first rounders and maybe Chase Young gets it done. I don't know that I have much confidence in this prediction, but who knows? Ron has said that they are willing to go all in and pay a big price for a franchise QB but I have to believe that this wouldn't happen without them being pretty certain about his legal issues and playing status.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/washingtonfootball/news/washington-commanders-trade-deshaun-watson-houston-texans-odds-aaron-rodgers

 

>>According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Washington Commanders (+300) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+350) are the two odds favorites to land Watson in 2022.<<

 

The very first thing that needs to be figured out when talking about any of these trades is "How is that team going to use this trade to replace the QB they're losing?", because no team is going to trade an elite QB without having a plan for how to replace him.

 

Unfortunately, we don't have anything to replace him with. Heinicke is the only guy we have signed for this season and he's not even a starting caliber QB, so nobody is going to take him.

 

That means a few options:

 

1) A team we're trading with would have to love a QB prospect in this draft and be very confident they could get him at #11

 

2) We'd have to figure out some 3 way trade involving a team that has a QB that the team trading their elite QB to us wants. But then that team would have to figure out what they're going to do at QB.

 

3) A team we're trading with would have to just go into this year with no QB and try to stockpile picks in the hope of trading up to the top of a possibly better QB class next year.

 

None of those sound especially likely to me. IMO it's super unlikely that Rodgers or Wilson are going to actually get traded, but even if that happens and they do trade them, they're probably going to do it with a team that can send them at least a serviceable QB in return.

[Voice_of_Reason]

So I think I have my "somewhat based in reality best case scenario" for what could happen with the QB Carrousel.  NOTE: This is not FULLY based in reality, and it's not my absolute ideal solution. 

 

1. Raider - Trade FOR Rodgers.  

2. Commanders - Trade FOR Carr. Raiders don't need him because they have Rodgers. 

3. Carolina - Trades FOR Russell Wilson (He played for NC State.  They want a QB BADLY.  It could happen. This keeps Wilson out of the NFC East AND screws Seattle.  So i like it)

3a. In this case, Tampa signs Winston, who knows the offense.  And they are picking so far back, they probably won't get a QB they want.  So it makes sense....

3. (Option 2) Tamp Bay trades FOR Russell Wilson. (And Winston is kindof screwed.) 

4. Seattle Trades FOR Jimmy G.

4. (Option 2) Green Bay trades for Jimmy G.  Because they admit they have biffed on Love.)

5. Pittsburgh trades UP to #4 and selects Pickett.  (He played in Pittsburgh.  How could that end up any better?)

6. Minnesota extends Kurt.  HAHAHAHAHA.

7. Denver drafts Malik Willis at #9. 

8. New Orleans trades up, picks Corral

9. Cleveland shocks the world and picks a QB with their first pick, ending the Baker Baker the Touchdown Maker experience in Cleveland.  But they keep Baker for another year because why not?

10. SF plays Trey Lance.

11. Arizona mends fences with Murray.  He and his doofus coach get extensions.  

12. Houston is screwed.  Watson is hit with criminal charges.  They ride it out with what they have, can't trade Watson, and they eat a $40m salary cap hit.

 

 

Commanders also sign Mitch or Mariotta, thus ensuring TH never plays again.  Which makes everybody except @zCommander and @kingdaddy dance for joy.  

 

[kingdaddy]

7 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So I think I have my "somewhat based in reality best case scenario" for what could happen with the QB Carrousel.  NOTE: This is not FULLY based in reality, and it's not my absolute ideal solution. 

 

1. Raider - Trade FOR Rodgers.  

2. Commanders - Trade FOR Carr. Raiders don't need him because they have Rodgers. 

3. Carolina - Trades FOR Russell Wilson (He played for NC State.  They want a QB BADLY.  It could happen. This keeps Wilson out of the NFC East AND screws Seattle.  So i like it)

3a. In this case, Tampa signs Winston, who knows the offense.  And they are picking so far back, they probably won't get a QB they want.  So it makes sense....

3. (Option 2) Tamp Bay trades FOR Russell Wilson. (And Winston is kindof screwed.) 

4. Seattle Trades FOR Jimmy G.

4. (Option 2) Green Bay trades for Jimmy G.  Because they admit they have biffed on Love.)

5. Pittsburgh trades UP to #4 and selects Pickett.  (He played in Pittsburgh.  How could that end up any better?)

6. Minnesota extends Kurt.  HAHAHAHAHA.

7. Denver drafts Malik Willis at #9. 

8. New Orleans trades up, picks Corral

9. Cleveland shocks the world and picks a QB with their first pick, ending the Baker Baker the Touchdown Maker experience in Cleveland.  But they keep Baker for another year because why not?

10. SF plays Trey Lance.

11. Arizona mends fences with Murray.  He and his doofus coach get extensions.  

12. Houston is screwed.  Watson is hit with criminal charges.  They ride it out with what they have, can't trade Watson, and they eat a $40m salary cap hit.

 

 

Commanders also sign Mitch or Mariotta, thus ensuring TH never plays again.  Which makes everybody except @zCommander and @kingdaddy dance for joy.  

 

Dancing for joy over a Trubisky or Mariotta signing would be pretty funny. I'm hoping we sign Trubisky but I won't be dancing for joy if we do....

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, kingdaddy said:

Dancing for joy over a Trubisky or Mariotta signing would be pretty funny. I'm hoping we sign Trubisky but I won't be dancing for joy if we do....

You must have missed the part where I said we traded for Carr, who would be the starter, then signed Mitch or marcus to be the backup, basically bumping TH to third string or off the roster....

 

The rest of us would be dancing for joy because TH would not play unless 2 QBs got injured.  

[Redskins 2021]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

The very first thing that needs to be figured out when talking about any of these trades is "How is that team going to use this trade to replace the QB they're losing?", because no team is going to trade an elite QB without having a plan for how to replace him.

 

Unfortunately, we don't have anything to replace him with. Heinicke is the only guy we have signed for this season and he's not even a starting caliber QB, so nobody is going to take him.

 

That means a few options:

 

1) A team we're trading with would have to love a QB prospect in this draft and be very confident they could get him at #11

 

2) We'd have to figure out some 3 way trade involving a team that has a QB that the team trading their elite QB to us wants. But then that team would have to figure out what they're going to do at QB.

 

3) A team we're trading with would have to just go into this year with no QB and try to stockpile picks in the hope of trading up to the top of a possibly better QB class next year.

 

None of those sound especially likely to me. IMO it's super unlikely that Rodgers or Wilson are going to actually get traded, but even if that happens and they do trade them, they're probably going to do it with a team that can send them at least a serviceable QB in return.

 We could get Watson they are not looking for a Qb they have Mills. They do need defensive linemen we have that. Is he willing to play here? Is he worth the headache? The other two Rodgers and Wilson we would need a Qb to make the trade.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[mistertim]

10 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 We could get Watson they are not looking for a Qb they have Mills. They do need defensive linemen we have that. Is he willing to play here? Is he worth the headache? The other two Rodgers and Wilson we would need a Qb to make the trade.

 

I think Watson is the least likely of 3 unlikely possibilities. Not just because of all the legal culture fit issues, but also because it's been reported several times that we aren't on Watson's short list and he's apparently very firm on his list. He has a no-trade clause so he has to approve any trade. He's not coming here.

[Redskins 2021]

Is there a list of teams Watson had said ok to? Better question is what team are willing to trade for Watson so far I have heard Miami which pulled out and Carolina which he said no to are they the only teams who have made offers.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[mistertim]

37 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Is there a list of teams Watson had said ok to? Better question is what team are willing to trade for Watson so far I have heard Miami which pulled out and Carolina which he said no to are they the only teams who have made offers.

 

I'm not sure. I think there were lists floated last season. Either way, I don't think anyone is going to be trading for him without knowing the outcome of all his legal troubles and that's not going to be done for some time, I'm thinking. I have a feeling Watson won't be playing this season either.

[markmills67]

By the end of all the QB movement is done, our Washington Commanders will end up with either Trubiski or Mariota. 

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, markmills67 said:

By the end of all the QB movement is done, our Washington Commanders will end up with either Trubiski or Mariota. 

 

Which is fine, as long as we also draft one in the 1st round. But if we go into the season with Trubisky or Mariota as our starter, without a rookie...I think home game fan attendance will drop to about 500 people per game probably.

[VaK9Trainer]

14 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

If we genuinely are going after Wilson, I think the offer we ultimately make may be something in the order of our first and second round picks for the next three years. Yep, 3 firsts and 3 seconds. Even that may not be enough.

 

That's CRAZY!!!!!!!!!!!  NO WAY do you pay that much!!! 

[wit33]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You missed the gist of my point.  Plus you seem to be determined to grossly misrepresent the Rams cap situation at QB no matter how many times I explain it to you so I give up debating it.  

Not at all, check how much they paid Donald, Cupp, and Ramsey last season. They manipulated the cap to go all in on Stafford and take the hit on Goff. Next season Stafford will continue to be financial asset while those guys get paid their due money. 
 

The Ram QB position paid out 45 plus million with contracts of Goff and Stafford on the books; I get that. This was only able to happen by Stafford agreeing to not require an extension and ride out two seasons at 10% of the cap. 
 

This still doesn’t take away from fact that the majority of SB winning QBs and QBs who are the final 4 are in that 5-10% range. This is how you win the SB, having your QB count for 10% or less. Brady provided this cap number in most seasons consistently where other QBs provide this here and there, but force an inordinate cap hit in future seasons.
 

More discussion should be how the good to elite QB provides value in relation to their cap hit percentage on a year to year basis. It’s eye opening, in my view. 
 

Edit: I know you were discussing the average QB taking up a small percentage of the cap and winning with them. Just adding that the expensive good to elite rarely wins when paid “a lot” in a season. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by wit33

[zCommander]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So I think I have my "somewhat based in reality best case scenario" for what could happen with the QB Carrousel.  NOTE: This is not FULLY based in reality, and it's not my absolute ideal solution. 

 

1. Raider - Trade FOR Rodgers.  

2. Commanders - Trade FOR Carr. Raiders don't need him because they have Rodgers.

 

Commanders also sign Mitch or Mariotta, thus ensuring TH never plays again.  Which makes everybody except @zCommander and @kingdaddy dance for joy.  

 

 

When the Raiders swap with the Hawks and Aaron just stays where he is at. 

I will be dancing for joy while you will be dancing for sorrow. Oh the irony.  

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by zCommander

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

 

When the Raiders swap with the Hawks and Aaron just stays where he is at. 

I will be dancing for joy while you will be dancing for sorrow. Oh the irony.  

 

Wait, the raiders will swap with the Seahawks? I doubt that happens.

 

(EDITED, I had a brain problem)
 

This makes very little sense for either side.  

I’d be happy if they signed a bridge and drafted either Willis or Picket.  
 

(Btw, I’m that scenario, TH is still third string)

Edited February 28, 2022 by Voice_of_Reason

[Conn]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

Wait, the raiders will swap with the Falcons?  Why would either team do that?  The falcons would have to eat a huge salary cap hit, and the Raiders get an older QB?  
 

This makes very little sense for either side.  

He means the Seahawks. Seattle and Oakland aren’t swapping QBs either, but that’s what he means. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, Conn said:

He means the Seahawks. Seattle and Oakland aren’t swapping QBs either, but that’s what he means. 

Yeah.  I edited and corrected the mistake as you were correcting me 

[zCommander]

20 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I’d be happy if they signed a bridge and drafted either Willis or Picket.  
 

(Btw, I’m that scenario, TH is still third string)

 

The problem I have is with the so called bridge QBs in that none of them make any senses for the team. Ron has said if you draft someone in either the 1st or the 2nd round these days you have to start them unlike back in the days. 

 

So if you are going to do that then you just roll with Rookie, TH and Allen.