2024 ES GM's Mock Draft....

[goskins10]

Here is what I have as the official trades. 

 

[ComManDersFan57]

Thank you @goskins10! I completely missed the Jets and Bears trade. I don't see this one on the list: Panthers get 205 and 215 - Titans get 193.

[goskins10]

2 hours ago, skinfan57 said:

Thank you @goskins10! I completely missed the Jets and Bears trade. I don't see this one on the list: Panthers get 205 and 215 - Titans get 193.

 

I have it in my draft order but did not list it here. Good catch. 

[tibbidoe]

13 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

Thanks for doing that by the way! Numbers and stats have never been a strong suit of mine and am curious how you weigh them to make it as accurate and equitable as possible. 

 

I actually never got a suitable formula to work. My OCD and my lack of computer skills never could work things out. lol Tried after last year's mock, then life and pandemic set in. Somebody wanted a copy and I totally forgot to send it (@goskins10?) to do something with it.

 

Current version is the dumbed-down spreadsheet of just our mock results and a +/- from where players were really selected. I'll post that one now and an updated one after this coming draft.

 

ES Mock Draft Results (2015-2021)

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by tibbidoe

[Gallen5862]

Panthers trade #193 To Titans for 205 and 215

[mcterry]

Tampa Bay Bucs draft recap

 

1-32 Jayson Oweh Edge Penn State

2-64 Ifeatu Melifonwu CB Syracuse

3-96 Michael Carter RB UNC

4-137 Osa Odigizuwa DT UCLA

5-176 Dan Moore Jr. OT Texas A&M

6-217 Jhamon Ausbon WR Texas A&M

7-251 Tuf Borland LB The Ohio State

7-259 Peyton Ramsey QB Northwester

 

Biggest Steal- Michael Carter in the third.  We were looking for a pass catching back to compliment Playoff Lenny and Ronald Jones.  He fell right into our laps.

Biggest Regret- Not taking Greg Rosseau with the 32nd pick.  I completely forgot he was still on the board.  While Oweh has a high ceiling, we are looking to repeat as Super Bowl champs and need the security that Rosseau provides.

[KDawg]

11 hours ago, tibbidoe said:

 

I actually never got a suitable formula to work. My OCD and my lack of computer skills never could work things out. lol Tried after last year's mock, then life and pandemic set in. Somebody wanted a copy and I totally forgot to send it (@goskins10?) to do something with it.

 

Current version is the dumbed-down spreadsheet of just our mock results and a +/- from where players were really selected. I'll post that one now and an updated one after this coming draft.

 

ES Mock Draft Results (2015-2021)

 

 

 

I think a good measure is second contracts/franchise tags. If the player gets to the end of his rookie contact and gets re-signed, that pick is a hit. If they don't get re-signed but have excellent seasons (this is subjective but probably within an easily enough identifiable scope) and get a free agent contract worth something solid... hit. If the dude gets run out of the league DURING tenure with draft team MAJOR hit. If they make it through their contract but don't latch on or do so late, it's a hit.

 

It's not easy to score this thing in any real way. Including draft position. 

[goskins10]

7 minutes ago, mcterry said:

Tampa Bay Bucs draft recap

 

1-32 Jayson Oweh Edge Penn State

2-64 Ifeatu Melifonwu CB Syracuse

3-96 Michael Carter RB UNC

4-137 Osa Odigizuwa DT UCLA

5-176 Dan Moore Jr. OT Texas A&M

6-217 Jhamon Ausbon WR Texas A&M

7-251 Tuf Borland LB The Ohio State

7-259 Peyton Ramsey QB Northwester

 

Biggest Steal- Michael Carter in the third.  We were looking for a pass catching back to compliment Playoff Lenny and Ronald Jones.  He fell right into our laps.

Biggest Regret- Not taking Greg Rosseau with the 32nd pick.  I completely forgot he was still on the board.  While Oweh has a high ceiling, we are looking to repeat as Super Bowl champs and need the security that Rosseau provides.

 

The Falcons thank you. We were surprised he fell that far. Had he not opted out I am certain he would be a top 15 pick. My plan going into the draft was to trade down from #4 and depending on what I got back and how far I traded Greg would likely have been my pick. But then no one traded and I could not pass on Chase. I know many think that it should have been Pitts. I just felt I needed Chase to replace Julio Jones as he is getting older and is missing games. Anyway was surprised that Greg fell to me at #35. 

 

[goskins10]

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I think a good measure is second contracts/franchise tags. If the player gets to the end of his rookie contact and gets re-signed, that pick is a hit. If they don't get re-signed but have excellent seasons (this is subjective but probably within an easily enough identifiable scope) and get a free agent contract worth something solid... hit. If the dude gets run out of the league DURING tenure with draft team MAJOR hit. If they make it through their contract but don't latch on or do so late, it's a hit.

 

It's not easy to score this thing in any real way. Including draft position. 

 

That certainly makes some sense but it depends on round right? I mean what's more difficult, a 1st rd pick making it through their rookie contract of a 7th rd pick? You almost have to weight it so that the later rd pick making it helps your score more. You could do something like assigning pts based on years in the league. Then add bonuses for Pro Bowls, All Pro, 2nd contract. Even the draft pick they were taken has a lot of variables. There is the obvious of +/-. But if you take a guy 2 spots different i nthe 1st rd, isnt that more of a miss one way or the other than a 6th rd pick who you missed y 2 spots? 

 

But I think that's only half the equation. The other half is how did you draft vs the team you had. Did you hit any of the same players? Were they the same rd? If not the same players, did you go the same positions? 

 

Maybe when I retire and have more time, I may take a stab at it.. Right now I just do not have the time. 

 

Still an incredibly fun exercise. It's one of the bright spots of the year. Now that the WFT is playing bette maybe that can change... 🙂  

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

That certainly makes some sense but it depends on round right? I mean what's more difficult, a 1st rd pick making it through their rookie contract of a 7th rd pick? You almost have to weight it so that the later rd pick making it helps your score more. You could do something like assigning pts based on years in the league. Then add bonuses for Pro Bowls, All Pro, 2nd contract. Even the draft pick they were taken has a lot of variables. There is the obvious of +/-. But if you take a guy 2 spots different i nthe 1st rd, isnt that more of a miss one way or the other than a 6th rd pick who you missed y 2 spots? 

 

But I think that's only half the equation. The other half is how did you draft vs the team you had. Did you hit any of the same players? Were they the same rd? If not the same players, did you go the same positions? 

 

Maybe when I retire and have more time, I may take a stab at it.. Right now I just do not have the time. 

 

Still an incredibly fun exercise. It's one of the bright spots of the year. Now that the WFT is playing bette maybe that can change... 🙂  

theres no real way to score. The way I draft for the Chargers may actually be impossible for the Chargers to do because the guys aren’t on the board or other guys on their board got taken and their next BPA wasn’t the same as mine, etc.

 

Point is: there’s really no way to score this.

 

For the record... round would matter. But a first rounder should make it through their rookie deal. Otherwise that first round pick is a miss. 

 

It would be easier to score a 2.0 type draft where we pick in an order and it’s more like a real life draft simulation than this version where we are picking guys we like while also trying to round out rosters.

Edited April 13, 2021 by KDawg

[goskins10]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

theres no real way to score. The way I draft for the Chargers may actually be impossible for the Chargers to do because the guys aren’t on the board or other guys on their board got taken and their next BPA wasn’t the same as mine, etc.

 

Point is: there’s really no way to score this.

 

It would be easier to score a 2.0 type draft where we pick in an order and it’s more like a real life draft simulation than this version where we are picking guys we like while also trying to round out rosters.

 

Not sure I agree. The variability in what others take are part of it. For every plus, there is a minus. If someone takes a player early, then that leaves a player that should be gone. If you pick that player, then you get a plus they get a minus since they took a player early. That's why there are 2 parts. The matching what the team does maybe could be a bonus with a heavier emphasis on player and position vs the real draft. 

 

I think it is measurable just not easily. Again, if I had time I would try to create a calculation. I just do not have time right now. 

 

 

[KDawg]

8 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

Not sure I agree. The variability in what others take are part of it. For every plus, there is a minus. If someone takes a player early, then that leaves a player that should be gone. If you pick that player, then you get a plus they get a minus since they took a player early. That's why there are 2 parts. The matching what the team does maybe could be a bonus with a heavier emphasis on player and position vs the real draft. 

 

I think it is measurable just not easily. Again, if I had time I would try to create a calculation. I just do not have time right now. 

 

 

It’s pretty impossible to score this against real life... if the Niners take Jones at 3 our entire draft board here gets thrown in flux. 
 

If in our mock Fields goes 1 but in real life he goes 12... how do you score that? What happens if Fields winds up being the best QB?

[tibbidoe]

10 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

I think a good measure is second contracts/franchise tags. If the player gets to the end of his rookie contact and gets re-signed, that pick is a hit. If they don't get re-signed but have excellent seasons (this is subjective but probably within an easily enough identifiable scope) and get a free agent contract worth something solid... hit. If the dude gets run out of the league DURING tenure with draft team MAJOR hit. If they make it through their contract but don't latch on or do so late, it's a hit.

 

It's not easy to score this thing in any real way. Including draft position. 

 

All true. The problem I also ran into was putting value on the mock draft. I had been trying to base it on mock draft spot vs actual, games played, individual awards, etc. I never even got to consider contract angles and so on.

 

I'm sure there are some pretty smart ESers who could work something out, if anybody feels like giving it a shot.

[goskins10]

Almost time to see how we did against the real draft. I was listening to AIring it Out and Charlie Weiss made the point you never really know what will happen. Everyone is so sure it will go - Trever L, Zach W. then Justin F or Mac Jones if the reports are to be believed.  But what if the Jets take Jones at #2? If he really was the 49ers target - do they run to pick Wilson? What if they are not sold on him? And they never liked Fields or the epilepsy thing has them shied away (It should not, it's very manageable). 

 

Will the Falcons take a QB? I didn;t and stand by that decision. But they real team may decide they like someone who is still there at #4. Love the draft and this one looks to have the potential to be exciting. I think there are still a few trades to be done on draft day. Maybe even our WFT. 

 

Should be fun! 

[goskins10]

Pretty cool mock draft. This is youtube guys from each of the NFC East teams doing a full mock draft. It's a long video - about 90 mins. But pretty cool. They did it live and were taking fan input. Check out the Eagles in the 3rd rd. Reminds me of us.   WFT guy had to leave with 3 picks left. 

 

More importantly, what if we use this to do the mock next year? We could pick a day and just do the entire draft instead of waiting. We could even do a few of them. It would take a lot of the admin out of it and all the waiting for people to make their picks. I think we can pick all 32 teams. We can use Zoom or something like that. 

 

Something to think about. 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2021 by goskins10

[PokerPacker]

On 4/24/2021 at 9:54 AM, goskins10 said:

Pretty cool mock draft. This is youtube guys from each of the NFC East teams doing a full mock draft. It's a long video - about 90 mins. But pretty cool. They did it live and were taking fan input. Check out the Eagles in the 3rd rd. Reminds me of us.   WFT guy had to leave with 3 picks left. 

 

More importantly, what if we use this to do the mock next year? We could pick a day and just do the entire draft instead of waiting. We could even do a few of them. It would take a lot of the admin out of it and all the waiting for people to make their picks. I think we can pick all 32 teams. We can use Zoom or something like that. 

 

Something to think about.

I ain't got the time to do all of my research ahead of time to pick in real time.

[goskins10]

On 4/26/2021 at 12:12 AM, PokerPacker said:

I ain't got the time to do all of my research ahead of time to pick in real time.

 

Thanks for the feedback. I thought abotu that for myself.

 

Maybe we could do it as the 2nd draft. Follow our current method for the first draft - which it seems we have a pretty good group and flow right now - and then for those who want to do a second draft, we use the simulator and do it in 1 or 2 days. 

 

We could maybe try it next year and se which way people like best. 

[TK]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

wrong thread

Edited April 29, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

lol, did it again, wrong thread

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Did it again, wrong thread, and i haven't even started drinking yet tonight.  Heck I'll leave it here anyway.  😀

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[tibbidoe]

Does anyone have links to these mock drafts for 2014 and earlier? I put together 2015-2021 and found a partial from 2006.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, tibbidoe said:

Does anyone have links to these mock drafts for 2014 and earlier? I put together 2015-2021 and found a partial from 2006.

Most of us have our own picks saved. You might be able to get them from everyone in a few days after the draft is over. 

[tibbidoe]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Most of us have our own picks saved. You might be able to get them from everyone in a few days after the draft is over. 

 

Sweet. I'll keep that in mind and try sometime next week. Appreciate it.

[PokerPacker]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Did it again, wrong thread, and i haven't even started drinking yet tonight.

I have.