2024 ES GM's Mock Draft....

[gooseneck]

not sure how you value players:  I think I did pretty good with N,Y. and lousy with Cleveland:

 

New York Giants 

6) New York Giants   Joe Alt       ND                                            OT         NO. 5
47) New York Giants (from Seattle) Xavier Worthy  Texas         WR         NO. 28
70) New York Giants   Ja'Lynn Polk       Washington.                 WR         NO. 37
107) New York Giants  Braelon Allen      Wisconsin               RB        NO. 134
166) New York Giants    Sione Vaki         Utah                               S        NO. 132
183) New York Giants    Dylan Laube      New Hampshire           RB        NO. 208

Cleveland Browns 
54) Cleveland Browns    Ricky Pearsall          UF             WR                          31
85) Cleveland Browns          Jeremiah Trotter Jr.        Clemson          LB           155
 156) Cleveland Browns    Mehki Wingo     LSU                                      DL        189
 206) Cleveland Browns (from Baltimore)  Nelson Ceasar       Houston          DL                    
 243) Cleveland Browns    Khalid Duke        Kansas St                           DE      

[ComManDersFan57]

I'm happy with my Eagles draft this year. Every player was drafted.

 

My picks                                                     NFL Picks

22- Cooper Dejean, CB, Iowa                      40- Eagles (Bonus same team?)

50- Chris Braswell,  EDGE, Alabama           25- Bucs

53- Branden Fiske, DL, Florida State           39- Rams

120- Brenden Rice, WR, USC                    225- Chargers (Was sweating this one)

161- Tommy Eichenberg, LB, Ohio State   148- Raiders    

171- Jarvis Brownlee, CB, Louisville          146- Titans

172- Justin Eboigbe, EDGE, Alabama        105- Chargers

210- Logan Lee, DL, Iowa                           178- Steelers

 

All but two of my players were selected before I picked them. Cooper Dejean went 18 slots after and Brenden Rice went 105 slots after. (Ouch) The others went far enough ahead that I still netted 53 spots. 

[woodpecker]

 

Here’s how I did with the Seahawks…

               my picks                                        NFL picks 

1/16- Troy Fontanu 0T Washington          20 Steelers (-4)

 

3/81- Junior Colson LB Michigan             69 Chargers (+12)
 

4/102- Jerod Wiley TE TCU                     131 Chiefs (-29)

 

5/118- Maason Smith DT LSU                   52 Jags (+66)

 

5/152- Tanor Bortolini C Wisconsin         117 Colts (+35)

 

7/235- Joe Milton QB Tennessee             193 Titans (+42)

 

                                                                  Total: +122 

 

Seahawks picks…
Round 1: No. 16 Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Round 3: No. 81 Christian Haynes, G, Connecticut
Round 4: No. 118 Tyrice Knight, LB, Texas-El Paso
Round 4: No. 121 A.J. Barner, TE, Michigan
Round 5: No 136 Nehemiah Pritchett, CB, Auburn
Round 6: No. 179 Sataoa Laurnea, G, Utah
Round 6: No. 192 DJ James, CB, Auburn
Round 6: No. 207 Michael Jerrell, OT, Findlay

 

Seahawks traded down for extra picks so they got me on quantity, but I’ll give my group the edge based on overall talent. Murphy > Smith of course, but I feel like I got them better players at G, LB, and TE plus Bortolini > Laurnea. They did well late to get a couple corners and an OT prospect with the extra picks compared to just QB Milton, but it’s likely none of those guys amounts to much anyway, so if we’re talking lottery tickets give me the QB!

 

+122 seems like a good number so hopefully it’s enough to get me an invite back next year 😁 Thanks again to all involved.

 

[Chump Bailey]

Well, it looks as though I will have 4 undrafted - it seems to me this draft in particular was peculiar in that regard. IMO, a whole heck of a lot of players had draft-able grades that weren't selected.

 

 

Curtis Jacobs Penn State LB - puzzler to me

Bo Richter OLB Air Force - another puzzler to me check out his RAS - he's a Viking now

Trente Jones OG - a Packer I think

David White Jr. WR - still not signed I believe

 

 

[Going Commando]

My seventh rounders went undrafted.  Other than that, I was accurate with almost all of the other picks I made:

 

Laiatu Latu - 15 - My pick: 17
T'Vondre Sweat - 38 - My pick: 48
Jarrion Jones - 96 - My pick: 96
Mason McCormick - 119 - My pick: 114

Jacob Cowing - 135 - My pick: 116
Tykee Smith - 89 - My pick: 153
Jalen Green - Undrafted - My pick: 212
Kendall Milton - Undrafted - My pick: 236

 

My best pick was nailing Jarrion Jones at 96.  That is unusual to pull off that deep in a draft.

 

I had a feeling Jalen Green might go undrafted because of his late knee injury, but I would have still picked him in the seventh.  Dude had 16 sacks in 9 games.  He's still unsigned as far as I can tell, and we should bring him in for a look.

 

I also had a feeling Kendall Milton would go undrafted when he wasn't even on some of the brand name draft boards I looked at.  The Eagles scooped him up.  A lot of good running backs who would have been drafted under normal circumstances went UDFA this year.  The Covid season hurt their draft stock more than any other position.  Cody Schrader was like a fifth round caliber back, but was probably too old to be palatable for most teams.  I had a feeling he'd end up in San Francisco because he's an ideal fit for that system.

[goskins10]

So here is the Arizona draft. Despite the overall -109 plus minus, I am still very happy with this draft. I was able to trade down from 1 then back up to 9 and still get one of the top WRs in Malik Nabers. Some had Malik thier #1 and many more had them 1a (MHJ) and 1b. I do believe in the long run MHJ is slightly better, I also believe Malik Nabers and Chop Robinson are > MHJ. After Chop there was a pretty big drop off for edge except maybe Darious Robinson. Very happy to get Chop at a position of need. Arizona had all of 9.5 sacks for thier edge and that's 6 from Dennis Gardeck who is very inconsistent. This is a huge upgrade. Arizona thought the same as they took Darious Robinson in the 1st. Chop was already off the board. I think they reached with Darious but it is what it is. 

 

Jackson Power-Johnson is the best pure C in the draft and I had my 2 top priorities covered allready. He is a plug and play guy at C for a decade or more. The current starter is Hjalte Froholdt and he is only signed through 2024. He had 8 penalties and allowed 3 sacks from the C postion! This is his 3rd team. 

 

Then we got Mike Sainristil! Love this guy! Enough has been said in the draft thread but this guy could really become a special player for our team. I am very excited I got him for AZ and then the Commanders picked him. 

 

Arizona was in depsperate need of secondary help so I went DB again with Demerson. Arizona did too although they were able to get him later than I took him. The rest were mostly BPA for me - which shows how out of sync I am with the NFL LOL  I was about a half to a full rd early with many picks. But I am OK with that. I do like Jordan Davis as a developmental QB. Yuck! The Jets liked him enough to trade upo for him as the long term Rodgers replacement..???  Season ending injury had him fall some. Still was never going to be a top prospect. Here is the right place for hm. But if he can learn from Aaron and keep healthy he might just surprise. Need to have some more depth. Need someone behind Desmond Ridder. He is aweful to be honest. He was with Atlanta last year. Saw a lot of him.

 

Will Shipley would start as a KR, maybe also a PR or at least in the mix. His athletisism was an 85. Very athletic guy. Will need to work on translating his game to the NFL in terms of maintaining vision and being more calculated in his cuts. Is not a pound and ground guy though. Likely not a 3 down back but you never know. He has good hands and can run.

 

The only player for either team not picked was Keaton Bills, who ironically was signed by the Buffalo Bills as a URFA 🙂  How appropriate! I got him for a ham sandwitch as the Chargers were tired of picking LOL  We will see what happens to him. 

 

As compared to the real Cardinals: 

ES Draft - 2 WR, 3 Secondary, 3 IOL, 1 Edge, 1 QB and 1 RB

NFl Cardinals: 2 WR, 4 Secondary, 1 IOL, 1 OT, 2 Edge, 1 RB

Pretty close in terms of positons.

 

iAs always everyone, this was so much fun!!  Thanks for everyone who particpated! Great group as always!!  

 

[The Rook]

Well, Miami didn't pick any of my picks for them, but NFCE seemed to like them. 

 

Johnny Newton Wash #36 - Me #21

Cooper Beebe Dallas #73 - Me #55

Jalyx Hunt Phil #124 - Me #158

Anthony Gould Ind #142 - Me #184

Trevor Keegan Phil #172 - Me #198

Isaiah Williams Det UDFA - Me #241

 

Had a great time.

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[clskinsfan]

None of my 7th round picks were drafted either. I had a good draft otherwise. With the exception of Beaux Limmer (+114). Who I clearly overvalued. Did very well with Blake Fisher (-16), Javon Foster (-23)  and did extremely welll with Josh Newton (-44). 

 

Chicago:
1) Caleb Williams  QB USC  Actual 1  even
11) Jared Verse  DE FSU  Actual 19   +8
75) Blake Fisher T Notre Dame  Actual 59  -16
90) Brandon Dorlus  DL  Oregon Actual 109  +19
122) Christian Jones  T  Texas Actual 162  +40
211) Jalen Coker  WR  Holy Cross  Actual --Undrafted. Signed with Carolina
251)  Jontrey Hunter  LB  Georgia State  --Undrafted. Signed with New England

 

New England:
3) Jayden Daniels  QB  LSU  Actual 2  -1
26) Brian Thomas  WR  LSU  Actual 24  -2
103) Beaux Limmer  C  Arkansas  Actual 217  +114
137)  Javon Foster  T  Missouri  Actual 114  -23
193)  Josh Newton  CB  TCU  Actual 149  -44
230)  Demani Richardson  S  Texas A&M Undrafted. Singed with the Patriots
231)  Emani Bailey  RB  TCU  Undrafted. Signed with Kansas City
232)  Myles Murphy  DL  Undrafted. Signed with Arizona

 

 

Edited April 29 by clskinsfan

[Est.1974]

1-4 JJ McCarthy QB………actual 10

4-106 Roger Rosengarten OL………actual 62

4-108 Decamerion Richardson DB……….actual 112

4-113 Jamari Thrash WR…….actual 156

6-180 Joshua Karty K………actual 209

 

Only 4 picks out on Decamerion Richardson being my ‘best’ pick, especially on a bit of a sleeper choice.

[Chump Bailey]

RAIDERS	ACTUAL	ADJUSTMENT
TALIESE FUAGA #13	#14	-1
BO NIX #44	#12	32
RENARDO GREEN #77	#64	13
MARSHAWN LLOYD #112	#88	24
TYRON TRACEY #148	#166	-18
BUB MEANS #208	#170	38
JOSIAH EZIRIM #223	#239	-16
RASHEEN ALI #229	#165	64
		+136 TOTAL
RAVENS	ACTUAL	ADJUSTMENT
TYLER GUYTON #30	#29	1
JONAH ELLIS #62	#76	-14
CHRISTIAN MAHOGANY #93	#210	-117
ELIJAH JONES #130	#90	40
BRENNAN JACKSON #165	#154	11
TY'RON HOPPER #167	#91	76
DELMAR GLAZE #177	#77	100
JOWON BRIGGS #218	#243	-25
DEANTRE PRINCE #228	#153	75
DAVID WHITE JR. #250	UDFA JAGS	0
		+147 TOTAL
TITANS	ACTUAL	ADJUSTMENT
OLU FASHANU #7	#11	-4
TYLER NUBIN #38	#47	-9
DJ JAMES #129	#192	-63
MOHAMED KAMARA #146	#158	-12
AJ BARNER #157	#121	36
TRENTE JONES #182	UDFA PACKERS	0
CURTIS JACOBS #221	UDFA CHIEFS	0
CEDRIC JOHNSON #227	#214	13
BO RICHTER #242	UDFA VIKINGS	0
		-39 TOTAL

No idea how to weight the zeros but I did pretty well overall I think. 

[Going Commando]

There's not a good, objective way to grade our classes.  Just going on numerical value minus reach scores doesn't work, because a reach at the end of the draft shouldn't matter in comparison to reaches at the beginning.  Should there be some consideration about accurately drafting compared to our teams' real draft class?  What if we are accurate with our picks in that regard, but our team makes bad picks?  We have at least three objectives here, and they can contradict each other:

 

1 - to pick good players

2 - to pick the players that our teams realistically would

3 - to pick players after they are actually drafted in the real draft

 

So in assessing my own class, Jarrian Jones at 96 feels like my best pick because that's what actually happened on draft day.  But that also means a +0 value, and it's also not going to be an impressive pick in the ultimate consideration of the class if he ends up being a scrub. 

 

Then let's say you pick a player 50 picks early in the second round, and it looks like you committed a -50 reach and that it was one of your worst picks.  But that player ends up being an All Pro, and in reality, you've outpicked both the NFL and your real team.

 

Finally, let's say that I picked Michael Penix as the Jacksonville Jaguars this year, and he ends up being a star IRL.  That pick would have been a value pick where I chose a star QB, so it seems like it should be considered a home run.  Except that Michael Penix is a completely unrealistic pick for Jacksonville, and the reality is he would probably be the third stringer there.  So how do we assess that?

[ComManDersFan57]

@Going Commando

 

You’re absolutely correct. There’s no way to really know how well we did for a couple more years. At this point all we have is the actual draft to compare with. 
 

In the past I used a grading system based on draft trading value. Instead of subtracting pick numbers, the draft value is used. This way it’s a better representation of good and bad picks since each pick has a weight. When one of us makes the same pick as the actual draft, the points received are the draft value points instead of zero.

 

If I find time I’ll do it again. It’s time consuming.

[clskinsfan]

I actually dont give one **** where the prospects go from here. I purely base my grade on whether NFL GM's valued them more than me. And the only way to grade that is did they go earlier than I picked them in our draft. Watching all of the tape we watch has nothing to do with how the prospects prosper in their careers or not. Injuries and all kinds of other factors go into busts/failures. The entire reason I do this is for grading prospects off of film. Everything else means nothing for an amateur. 

[PokerPacker]

Post draft analysis for Packers:

 

My draft vs Packers Draft

• Positions targeted seems pretty similar to the real Packers draft, though some differences in priority.
  • Packers
    • 3xOL, 4xDB, 2xLB, 1xRB, 1xQB
  • Me
    • 3xOL, 3xDB, 2xLB, 1xRB, 1xTE, 1xEDGE
• Packers and I both drafted three OL, including a Center and couple Tackles with Guard flexibility.
• Packers and I both drafted 3 players in the secondary through the 5th round, but they added a 4th with pick 255.  Both drafts included Kitan Oladapo at #169.
• Packers drafted an RB in the 3rd, I took one in the 4th.  Had I better scouted the position, maybe I'd have taken Lloyd at 91, though I did like Puni there.
• Packers and I both drafted 2 Linebackers.  I took Payton Wilson who dropped like a stone; the medicals at the combine must've been really bad.  Had he been off the board for medical reasons, I'd have gone with Edgerrin Cooper who the Packers took after trading back a couple spots.  Then the Packers went back to LB in the 3rd round while I waited for the 6th to double-up.  Interestingly, the Packers 3rd round selection, Ty'ron Hopper, went at 167 in our mock draft, and my 6th round selection, Edefuan Ulofoshio, went at 160 in the real draft.
• Rounding things out, the two positions I drafted that the Packers didn't would not have their names called on draft day.  Also, I didn't draft a QB.  Didn't find value at the position in our draft.  Their pick at 245, Michael Pratt, went at 132 in our mock draft

My picks vs NFL draft position

• First couple picks fell.  Defense in general fell out of the first round, especially with the ludicrous run on QBs to start the draft.  I'm not too concerned with my first pick, Kool-Aid McKinstry dropping to the 2nd.
• Payton Wilson's medicals must've given him a red flag to fall so far.  I took him on the assumption that he was recovered and all was well, but to fall that far tells me there was something in there that teams really didn't like.  Had I known he'd be flagged for medicals, I'd have taken Edgerrin Cooper as the Packers did
• Patrick Paul went where he did in the draft
• Cole Bishop was my first steal.  Was really fortunate to get him about a round later than he went in the actual draft, especially since I hadn't taken a Safety yet which really addressing
• Like my previous OL, Dominick Puni went about the same position in the real draft
• Isaac Guerendo is another ho-hum pick within a few spots of where he was drafted for real
• Kitan Oladapo was drafted by the real Packers exactly where I took him here
• Edefuan Ulofoshio went about a round earlier than where I took him.  Not surprised by this.  I really liked the value of the pick when I took him.
• Dallin Holker went Undrafted.  This was surprising to me.  Thought he was a really fluid athlete with fantastic hands.  Signed with the Saints as a UDFA with $235k guaranteed.
• Dylan McMahon went 55 picks earlier in the real draft.  Not a surprise at all.  His tape looked really good, and as I said when I took him, I think he'll be starting before too long.  Just needs to put on some weight and he'll be good.
• A.J. Simon did not live to hear his name called at the draft. 
• In my head, I'd slotted Long Snapper Peter Bowden into Simon's spot as the Packers have not had consistently solid long-snapping since Brett Goode retired.  2nd year kicker Anders Carlson would greatly benefit from consistent snaps, as I think wild snaps played a role in his inconsistency in kicking.  Anyways, Bowden went undrafted, but wound up signing with the Packers as a UDFA, so I'm looking forward to seeing how he does.

Summary:

• Falls:
  • Kool-Aid fell 16 spots as defense as a whole fell at the top of the draft
  • Wilson fell 57 spots most likely due to getting red-flagged for medicals that we don't have access to
  • Holker went undrafted from my 6th round position, but signed as a UDFA with a huge money guarantee
• Steals
  • Cole Bishop went about a round earlier than the late 3rd pick I used.  Great value
  • Ulofoshio went 42 picks earlier than where I took him in the 6th
  • McMahon went 55 picks earlier than where I took him in the 7th
• All others
  • 4 others were drafted within 5 spots of where they went in the real draft (including Oladapo who was selected exactly where I took him)
  • A.J. Simon died between our mock draft and the real draft.  I was really looking forward to seeing analysts dig into him after his name was called since he was completely under the radar despite his incredibly productive season.

Rd  Pick (Actual ) Player              POS
1   25   (2    41) Kool-aid McKinstry   CB
2   41   (3    98) Payton Wilson        LB
2   58   (2    55) Patrick Paul         OT
3   88   (2    60) Cole Bishop           S
3   91   (3    86) Dominick Puni         G
4   126  (4   129) Isaac Guerendo       RB
5   169  (5   169) Kitan Oladapo         S
6   202  (5   160) Edefuan Ulofoshio    LB
6   219  (  UDFA ) Dallin Holker        TE
7   245  (6   190) Dylan McMahon         C
7   255  (  RIP  ) AJ Simon           EDGE

Edited May 5 by PokerPacker

[Epochalypse]

Of note, I think the Packers drafted 4 of the players I drafted between my two teams.

 

Also of note, my two biggest fallers ended up getting picked by Baltimore.

[PokerPacker]

10 minutes ago, Epochalypse said:

Of note, I think the Packers drafted 4 of the players I drafted between my two teams.

 

Also of note, my two biggest fallers ended up getting picked by Baltimore.

Got a scouting report on Evan Williams?  When he was picked in the 4th round, I consulted our mock and saw he was taken at the very end of our draft.  Made me rather curious.

[Epochalypse]

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/lists/what-draft-experts-said-about-new-packers-safety-evan-williams/

[PokerPacker]

Just now, Epochalypse said:

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/lists/what-draft-experts-said-about-new-packers-safety-evan-williams/

Well, sure, I've read all the Packers news.  I was looking to see if you'd done any scouting yourself when you picked him.  Though going back to your original selection, was he just a guy on a big board who shouldn't have still been available?

[Epochalypse]

I'm afraid I can't divulge my sources as it may compromise my ES GM mock draft performance going forward. 🥸

[Bifflog]

Weird question from someone who thinks it might be fun to participate next year:  I can't really break down film, does it still make sense to play?  Anybody man drafts for teams in this, and treat it more like a puzzle/strategy game while relying on outside evaluations (i.e. maybe I can't tell what players are going to be great via film, but I CAN research my team and positions and do a realistic job)?

[goskins10]

3 minutes ago, Bifflog said:

Weird question from someone who thinks it might be fun to participate next year:  I can't really break down film, does it still make sense to play?  Anybody man drafts for teams in this, and treat it more like a puzzle/strategy game while relying on outside evaluations (i.e. maybe I can't tell what players are going to be great via film, but I CAN research my team and positions and do a realistic job)?

 

 

There are a lot of videos and readings from professionals you can watch and read that can do the video breakdown for you. Then you just decide if you believe. Over time you get your own way and your own idea of what to look for. Most importantly this is jsut for fun. So whatever it takes to have a good time. Keep your eye out for next year. Glad to have new blood to go with the awesome group we already have. 

[Chump Bailey]

28 minutes ago, Bifflog said:

Weird question from someone who thinks it might be fun to participate next year:  I can't really break down film, does it still make sense to play?  Anybody man drafts for teams in this, and treat it more like a puzzle/strategy game while relying on outside evaluations (i.e. maybe I can't tell what players are going to be great via film, but I CAN research my team and positions and do a realistic job)?

 

Solution: follow my posts and rankings in the 2025 comprehensive draft thread

[The Rook]

3 hours ago, Bifflog said:

Weird question from someone who thinks it might be fun to participate next year:  I can't really break down film, does it still make sense to play?  Anybody man drafts for teams in this, and treat it more like a puzzle/strategy game while relying on outside evaluations (i.e. maybe I can't tell what players are going to be great via film, but I CAN research my team and positions and do a realistic job)?

 

3 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

There are a lot of videos and readings from professionals you can watch and read that can do the video breakdown for you. Then you just decide if you believe. Over time you get your own way and your own idea of what to look for. Most importantly this is jsut for fun. So whatever it takes to have a good time. Keep your eye out for next year. Glad to have new blood to go with the awesome group we already have. 

 

@Bifflog - @goskins10's answer is right on the money.  As a first timer this last year, I can tell you there is a lot of helpful information out there without having to go into individual game films (unless you want to).  I didn't volunteer until a week before we started so I had to start researching the team I got (Miami).  Thankfully, EVERY team has local coverage with articles like "What are positions of need for X-team?" and "Who may be available for X-team?"

 

I am also an avid follower of the pre-draft thread on ES (a great load of evaluations in that), do simulated drafts multiple times a day (starting months before the draft) and enjoy targeting players/positions for Washington (especially in the later rounds).  

 

In the end, I think the more I put in it, the more I got out of it.  

 

I highly recommend it.  C'mon ... the other "GM's" are great and you'll have fun.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[PokerPacker]

On 5/6/2024 at 10:39 AM, Bifflog said:

Weird question from someone who thinks it might be fun to participate next year:  I can't really break down film, does it still make sense to play?  Anybody man drafts for teams in this, and treat it more like a puzzle/strategy game while relying on outside evaluations (i.e. maybe I can't tell what players are going to be great via film, but I CAN research my team and positions and do a realistic job)?

Film breakdown helps, but it's not necessary.  Just figuring out your team's needs and following the big boards is enough to get by.  Filter the field down by draft profiles written by those who do break down the film, and by size/athleticism measurables and you're in business.  Watching film after you've narrowed your options down is a nice extra layer of fine-tuning.  At least that's the general framework for how I go about picking.