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Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

Cooked Crack

By Cooked Crack
in The Tailgate

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

Posted
Posted

1 month and 4 days until Election Day.

 

Still think gop wins house with a 5-10 seat margin.

 

I think the senate is a tossup.  The Dems could win a couple, to be at 52-48. The gop could win a couple and be at 52-48.  Or we can remain at 50-50.

 

One of those idiots magas will win a Senate seat. Just don’t know if it will be OH,PA or GA.

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Ball Security

Ball Security

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

1 month and 4 days until Election Day.

 

Still think gop wins house with a 5-10 seat margin.

 

I think the senate is a tossup.  The Dems could win a couple, to be at 52-48. The gop could win a couple and be at 52-48.  Or we can remain at 50-50.

 

One of those idiots magas will win a Senate seat. Just don’t know if it will be OH,PA or GA.

You have them winning 2 of those 3 if you think they can get to 52.

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

You have them winning 2 of those 3 if you think they can get to 52.

For the Dems to get to 52, they have to hold the seats they have now and win PA and OH.  For the gop to get to 52, they have to hold what they have and pick up 2 of these 3: NV, GA, AZ.

 

Either is possibility.  WI, FL staying gop.

 

The states where senate seats could flip:

 

NV- currently Dem 

PA- currently Gop

OH- currently Gop

GA- currently Dem

 

I think Kelly in AZ should keep AZ in Dems hand but you never know.

 

The race is close in WI but that Russian Johnson probably wins again. Demmings will not beat Rubio in FL.

 

I think the only other race mentioned as a possible change was NC?  That probably goes to gop.


 

I think the Dems can really blow it in PA and GA.

 

It’s going to be a nail biter.

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Ball Security

Ball Security

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

For the Dems to get to 52, they have to hold the seats they have now and win PA and OH.  For the gop to get to 52, they have to hold what they have and pick up 2 of these 3: NV, GA, AZ.

 

Either is possibility.  WI, FL staying gop.

 

The states where senate seats could flip:

 

NV- currently Dem 

PA- currently Gop

OH- currently Gop

GA- currently Dem

 

I think Kelly in AZ should keep AZ in Dems hand but you never know.

 

The race is close in WI but that Russian Johnson probably wins again. Demmings will not beat Rubio in FL.

 

I think the only other race mentioned as a possible change was NC?  That probably goes to gop.


 

I think the Dems can really blow it in PA and GA.

 

It’s going to be a nail biter.

You still haven’t shown how the GOP gets to 52 while only winning one of the crazy 3 (WI, PA, GA).  
 

If both NV and AZ flip (AZ won’t, btw), and the GOP only gets one of the crazy 3, then they aren’t holding their current 50.  One of PA or WI flips in that scenario.  

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Ball Security said:

You still haven’t shown how the GOP gets to 52 while only winning one of the crazy 3 (WI, PA, GA).  
 

If both NV and AZ flip (AZ won’t, btw), and the GOP only gets one of the crazy 3, then they aren’t holding their current 50.  One of PA or WI flips in that scenario.  

Both times I mentioned, I said the gop has to pick up 2. I never said anything about 1; other than I think one of the maga crazies likely to win. Wasn’t talking about current  maga Johnson but the new ones not in office. I think that at least one of these 3 new maga crazies will win: Oz, Walker or Vance.  That’s all I was saying.  The net gain has to + for either party to go beyond a 50-50 tie.

 For the gop to be in control at 51, likely 2 new magas win.

 

If the gop holds OH and PA ; then 2 new magas win. If the Dems win everywhere else; still 50-50. 
 

 

The margin is close that either party can gain control.

 

Edited by 88Comrade2000
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Ball Security

Ball Security

Posted
Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Both times I mentioned, I said the gop has to pick up 2. I never said anything about 1; other than I think one of the maga crazies likely to win. Wasn’t talking about current  maga Johnson but the new ones not in office. I think that at least one of these 3 new maga crazies will win: Oz, Walker or Vance.  That’s all I was saying.  The net gain has to + for either party to go beyond a 50-50 tie.

 For the gop to be in control at 51, likely 2 new magas win.

 

If the gop holds OH and PA ; then 2 new magas win. If the Dems win everywhere else; still 50-50. 
 

 

The margin is close that either party can gain control.

 

Not sure why this is so difficult.  In your original post you said that the GOP could win 52-48.  In the same post you said “One of those idiots Magas will win a Senate seat.  Just don’t know if it will be OH, PA, or GA.”

 

I responded, that for the GOP to get to 52, two of those idiot magas would have to win.  
 

You seem to be disagreeing  with that.  Why?

 

If the Dems lose AZ and NV and one of the three crazies (no matter which one) then the net is 51R seats. 
 

EDIT:  maybe when I said them, you thought I meant D instead of R?  🤷‍♂️

 

 

Edited by Ball Security
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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Not sure why this is so difficult.  In your original post you said that the GOP could win 52-48.  In the same post you said “One of those idiots Magas will win a Senate seat.  Just don’t know if it will be OH, PA, or GA.”

 

I responded, that for the GOP to get to 52, two of those idiot magas would have to win.  
 

You seem to be disagreeing  with that.  Why?

 

If the Dems lose AZ and NV and one of the three crazies (no matter which one) then the net is 51R seats. 
 

EDIT:  maybe when I said them, you thought I meant D instead of R?  🤷‍♂️

 

 

For gop to get to 52, 2 crazies have to win. You are correct.

 

All I was saying, I think at least one crazy maga will become Senator and that’s all.  Even if Dems remain at 50-50 or gain or seat or two.
 

I probably didn’t word it right, so sorry there.

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Ball Security

Ball Security

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

For gop to get to 52, 2 crazies have to win. You are correct.

 

All I was saying, I think at least one crazy maga will become Senator and that’s all.  Even if Dems remain at 50-50 or gain or seat or two.
 

I probably didn’t word it right, so sorry there.

It’s all good.  Not sure why I got stuck on it.  The GOP definitely has a path to the Senate.  Though the D’s have a better chance of protecting 50 seats, simply because more seats in play are currently R.  
 

Of those three, OH has the best chance of being R.  
 

As always, it comes down to turnout.  The KS special election gives me hope.  

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