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Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

Cooked Crack

By Cooked Crack
in The Tailgate

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LadySkinsFan

LadySkinsFan

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Polls smolls.  If Dems think they have it in the bag; they are fooling themselves.

 

Polls aren’t going to gauge the true gop support because those people either won’t answer polls or lie in their answers.

 

Despite bad candidates everywhere; these races are probably in reality tossups . It can go either way.

 

Dems need to pound the pavement like their lives depend on it. Don’t assume rosy polls are right. 2020 had rosy polls and the gop candidate won races that Dems thought they would win.

 

It’s going to be a hard fight.

 

Don't you think that a large amount of women are going to do the same thing? Lie to husbands/boyfriends about supporting an abortion ban and then vote for the opposite? 

 

I think it's women who are going to provide enough votes for Democrats in the privacy of their vote. 

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The Evil Genius

The Evil Genius

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, LadySkinsFan said:

 

Don't you think that a large amount of women are going to do the same thing? Lie to husbands/boyfriends about supporting an abortion ban and then vote for the opposite? 

 

I think it's women who are going to provide enough votes for Democrats in the privacy of their vote. 

 

Yep.

 

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, LadySkinsFan said:

 

Don't you think that a large amount of women are going to do the same thing? Lie to husbands/boyfriends about supporting an abortion ban and then vote for the opposite? 

 

I think it's women who are going to provide enough votes for Democrats in the privacy of their vote. 

We’ll see.

 

I personally don’t think abortion will be the #1 issue driving voters in this election. Driving it so that not only does the Dems keep control of congress on the national level but also flip state legislators where these laws are being passed.

 

I could be dead wrong and shocked and you be right.

 

Yes, women could lie also.

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LadySkinsFan

LadySkinsFan

Posted
Posted

They just took rights away from over most of the fertile females in the United States, rights that anyone under 50 have had their whole lives. Rights that they took for granted that they thought they would have for themselves and countless generations of females. That's never been done before, take rights away after getting them. 

 

I can't tell you how many marches I've attended and the work I did when younger because I knew this was coming. It's the main reason why the Equal Rights Amendment was fought so hard against. The Dominionists, Christian Nationalists, White Supremists all participate in making females second class citizens and subhumans under male control. 

 

We say NO! Our vote will show that we're not going to put up with this.

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AJ*

AJ*

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Being pissed off is not the same as actually voting.  The voter registration data is encouraging but given that it is mostly young people, I'll keep my optimism cautious.  Counting on young people to vote in large numbers rarely works out. 

 

Young people have been much more politically active in recent election cycles and I don't see 2022 being any different after the Dobbs decision. Young voters carried Democrats in 2018 and 2020. I don't think they're being represented much in the polls since they don't answer phone calls for political surveys but they've been showing up to vote the last 4 years.

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I personally don’t think abortion will be the #1 issue driving voters in this election

Right. And sort of along the lines of what pleaseblitz said. You can’t conflate public outrage and what is driving the media cycle (especially months out) with what actually makes people vote a specific way. 
 

Things to consider:

remember when the scouts leak happened back in… was it march? … and some of us suggested the leak could have been from the GOP as a way to soften the blow. That way when the scotus ruling came out, it was “old news”

 

this strategy creates a “compromise” - and it doesn’t matter what we think, or what pro-choice people thing, because their minds are made up. All that matters is what the portion willing to vote either way think - or I suppose how motivating it is. 

 

and I don’t think it’s as important as is being described. Which is not to be confused with whether it’s important at all, or whether it should or shouldn’t be more important than we treat it… the way it’s covered you’d think it’s the most important issue and we’ll be decided simply on it. But I think for most it’s further down the list for the people that matter. Especially important is separating voting on the issue vs changing the party you’d vote for because of the issue. 
 

I, personally, would have thought this would flip midterm results. But as we see the two parties’ strategy unroll as we get closer I’m not convinced the dems will maximize their opportunity on the issue. 

1 hour ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

Maybe but something is skewing polls since 2016 heavily Dem to a degree that never really materialize on Election Day. 

This has been thoroughly covered though - in fact as Election Day came (last 2-3 days beforehand) the polls narrowed considerably and were much closer (at least some where) than they’re given credit for because they were so far off in the lead up. 
 

Im not convinced they have a firm grip but, it appears they at least acknowledge the error. 
 

another wrinkle - I’m not convinced the polls will accurately account for ranked voting yet, where it’s being used. 

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PleaseBlitz

PleaseBlitz

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, AJ* said:

 

Young people have been much more politically active in recent election cycles and I don't see 2022 being any different after the Dobbs decision. Young voters carried Democrats in 2018 and 2020. I don't think they're being represented much in the polls since they don't answer phone calls for political surveys but they've been showing up to vote the last 4 years.

 

Although their % of actually voting has gone up, it is still less than half of older people during non-Presidential elections.  

 

https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/28-young-people-voted-2018

 

28% was 10 points(!) higher than 2014, but is still only 28%.

 

I have no idea how polling adjusts for age.  

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The Evil Genius

The Evil Genius

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Anger is what usually drives midterms. Anger at the Incumbent in power- president, congress, governor , etc..

 

Inflation/economy is still the number one issue over abortion, 1/6, etc…

 

I still believe anger over inflation will be greater than anger over abortion.

 

And yet most GOP candidates have shied away from inflation/economy as of late in their advertising.  They are now focusing on "woke" issues. 

 

Fwiw I hope the Dems run this angle below, over and over. It's not a small issue for 50+% of the population.

 

 

Hence why this is happening.

 

 

Edited by The Evil Genius
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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

Posted
Posted

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/13/politics/state-politics-democrats-republicans-2030-fault-lines/index.html

 

If Dems don't start chipping away at the gop stranglehold in state legislatures; the rightward extreme direction won't stop.

Whatever passed on the national level can be overturned by the right wing scotus.

 

The battle isn't only at the national level. Are the Dems focusing on the state races other than governor also?

 

If Maga gets control of governorship, states where attorney General and sec of State are elected; those maga officials will

Steal the 24 election.

 

I don't know if the Dems are also focusing at the state level.

 

 

The biggest disaster of 2010 wasn't losing the US house but losing all those state legislatures. 

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