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Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

Cooked Crack

By Cooked Crack
in The Tailgate

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Dr Oz says uninsured ‘don’t have right to health’ but should get 15-minute checkups in ‘festival-like setting’

 

Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Dr Mehmet Oz has said he does not believe Americans have a right to health care, but he thinks the uninsured should have access to 15-minute checkups in a “festival-like setting”.

 

"Give them a way of crawling back out of the abyss, of darkness, of fear, of not having the health they need, and give them an opportunity," he said. "They don't have a right to health, but they have a right to access, to get that health."

 

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Mysterious group targeting Gov. Greg Abbott reserves $6 million in TV ads ahead of November election

 

A shadowy new group has purchased at least $6 million in TV advertisements ahead of the November election and is airing an ad that targets Gov. Greg Abbott as he runs for reelection.

 

The minute-long ad from Coulda Been Worse LLC, which started airing Friday, rattles off a list of major calamitous events that have happened on Abbott’s watch, such the Uvalde school shooting and 2021 power-grid collapse. As the narrator speaks, a picture slowly zooms out to show Abbott’s face.

 

“Any one of these — a terrible shame for Texas,” the narrator says at the end. “All of these — a horrific sign something big is terribly, terribly wrong.”

 

 

The spot ends with a clip of Abbott saying after the Uvalde massacre that it “could have been worse,” increasingly a rallying cry of Abbott’s critics. 

 

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Momma There Goes That Man

Momma There Goes That Man

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Yeah try like hell but a lot of these senate races are polling errors right now. No way does Ryan win in Ohio and there isn’t a chance Destantis or Rubio lose in florida. NC and WI are possible but it’s also very easy for Dems to lose GA and NV making it a wash. Most likely imo is losing Ga and WI but winning Pa and NV and keeping a 50/50 senate. 
 

unless by some miracle the polling is wrong the other way due to Dobbs but that’s unlikely imo. 

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Social media firms are prepping for the midterms. Experts say it may not be enough

 

With two months to go until the midterms, tech companies are getting ready: rolling out fact checks, labeling misleading claims and setting up voting guides.

 

The election playbooks being used by Facebook, Twitter, Google-owned YouTube and TikTok are largely in line with those they used in 2020, when they warned that both foreign and domestic actors were seeking to undermine confidence in the results.

 

But the wave of falsehoods in the wake of that election — including the "big lie" that Donald Trump won — has continued to spread, espoused by hundreds of Republican candidates on ballots this fall.

 

That's left experts who study social media wondering what lessons tech companies have learned from 2020 — and whether they are doing enough this year.

 

The host of election-related announcements in recent weeks add up to a "business as usual" approach, said Katie Harbath, a former elections policy director at Facebook who's now a fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

 

The platforms are largely taking a two-pronged approach: tamping down misleading or outright false claims, and boosting authoritative information from local election officials and reputable news sources.

 

In the first case, all four major platforms are leaning on labels to flag falsehoods and, in many cases, direct users to fact checks or accurate information. In some cases, users won't be able to share labeled posts and the platforms themselves won't recommend them. YouTube, Facebook and TikTok also say they will remove some specific false claims about voting and threats of violence.

 

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11 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:

Grain of salt

 

 

Yes, the Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again

 

Ahead of the last presidential election, we created a website tracking the latest polls — internally, we called it a “polling diary.” Despite a tough polling cycle, one feature proved to be particularly helpful: a table showing what would happen if the 2020 polls were as “wrong” as they were in 2016, when pollsters systematically underestimated Donald J. Trump’s strength against Hillary Clinton.

 

The table proved eerily prescient. Here’s what it looked like on Election Day in 2020, plus a new column with the final result. As you can see, the final results were a lot like the poll estimates “with 2016-like poll error.”

 

We created this poll error table for a reason: Early in the 2020 cycle, we noticed that Joe Biden seemed to be outperforming Mrs. Clinton in the same places where the polls overestimated her four years earlier. That pattern didn’t necessarily mean the polls would be wrong — it could have just reflected Mr. Biden’s promised strength among white working-class voters, for instance — but it was a warning sign.

 

That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.

 

It raises the possibility that the apparent Democratic strength in Wisconsin and elsewhere is a mirage — an artifact of persistent and unaddressed biases in survey research.

 

If the polls are wrong yet again, it will not be hard to explain. Most pollsters haven’t made significant methodological changes since the last election. The major polling community post-mortem declared that it was “impossible” to definitively ascertain what went wrong in the 2020 election.

 

The pattern of Democratic strength isn’t the only sign that the polls might still be off in similar ways. Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision on abortion, some pollsters have said they’re seeing the familiar signs of nonresponse bias — when people who don’t respond to a poll are meaningfully different from those who participate — creeping back into their surveys.

 

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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Polls smolls.  If Dems think they have it in the bag; they are fooling themselves.

 

Polls aren’t going to gauge the true gop support because those people either won’t answer polls or lie in their answers.

 

Despite bad candidates everywhere; these races are probably in reality tossups . It can go either way.

 

Dems need to pound the pavement like their lives depend on it. Don’t assume rosy polls are right. 2020 had rosy polls and the gop candidate won races that Dems thought they would win.

 

It’s going to be a hard fight.

Edited by 88Comrade2000
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@DCGoldPants

@DCGoldPants

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10 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Polls smolls.  If Dems think they have it in the bag; they are fooling themselves.

 

Polls aren’t going to gauge the true gop support because those people either won’t answer polls or lie in their answers.

 

Despite bad candidates everywhere; these races are probably in reality tossups . It can go either way.

 

Dems need to pound the pavement like their lives depend on it. Don’t assume rosy polls are right. 2020 had rosy polls and the gop candidate won races that Dems thought they would win.

 

It’s going to be a hard fight.

I agree. They need to act like they are down in every poll, but not so far down that it's lost. 

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