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Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )


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Iowa is pretty scary tho. 🤪

 

Seriously the "southern border" phrase is about as classic a racist dog whistle as any. Literally dudes running for Governor of a state that borders another country. No need to worry about that border tho best to be concerned about the one 1800 miles away. Wonder why that is?

 

Racist immigrant invasion rhetoric works come election season unfortunately. 

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I don't care if the Dems keep the house & senate.....looking around the country, at how close many of these races are, despite the GOP nominee being straight loons in some of these races.......I just, find it hard to have a lot of hope for the future.  I keep wanting to wake up and these people are just not in public office anymore, but I feel like the opposite is happening. They keep multiplying and getting crazier, and not even the most middle of the road sane Democrat(s) can sway them away.  

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What boggles my mind is that someone could legitimately switch their vote at this moment (if true). So, suddenly you're concerned about crime? Please! These people are just looking for any excuse to vote republican without a guilty conscience.

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4 hours ago, Simmsy said:

What boggles my mind is that someone could legitimately switch their vote at this moment (if true). So, suddenly you're concerned about crime? Please! These people are just looking for any excuse to vote republican without a guilty conscience.

 

I think the "Undecided" voter is minimal compared to the unmotivated one. They do those panels during presidential elections and you just know that most of those people aren't undecided.  The people who sometimes vote and sometimes don't, however? Those are the folks that all those advertisements are targeting. And they absolutely swing elections. 

 

Then you have a whole tier of suppressed and disenfranchised voters. We all know who causes that. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll: Fetterman, Oz neck and neck as Shapiro’s lead over Mastriano narrows

 

As Election Day nears, a new InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll shows Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz has gained ground on Democratic nominee John Fetterman in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race.

 

The race is now a dead heat, according to the poll of 550 likely voters conducted three weeks before Election Day on Nov. 8. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2%

 

Fetterman and Oz are now tied in the polling at 46%, with 5% of those polled remaining undecided. Libertarian candidate Erik Gerhardt came in at about 2%.

 

InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery says Fetterman’s shrinking lead was a result of self-described independent voters breaking for Oz by twenty points. 

 

"Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin. Fetterman continues to enjoy a ten-point lead among female voters, while men prefer Oz at that same rate," Towery explained.

 

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Why Does Mastriano Keep Using Russian Propaganda Footage in His Campaign Ads?

 

Doug Mastriano, the pro-Trump MAGA candidate for Pennsylvania governor, has a campaign ad out now that uses stock footage previously used for Kremlin propaganda.

 

Mastriano’s ad, which is currently the header image on his campaign’s Facebook page, features an image of two young girls running through a field with the words: “For their future there is hope” superimposed on top.

 

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“On day one, no more boys in the girls' bathrooms or locker rooms, no more pronoun games in the classroom, no more gender transitioning of minors without parental consent, and no more pornography in public school libraries,” Mastriano wrote in a post accompanying the ad earlier this week. “Your vote on 11/8 is a vote for the future of our kids.”

 

But the two children in the ads are not Pennslyvanian kids. They are not even American kids. The image comes from stock footage hosted by Pexel, a German company that offers free stock imagery, Business Insider reported. The videographer who posted the footage lists his location as Minsk, the capital of Belarus.

 

And this is not the first time the footage has appeared in a political ad. 

 

At the end of July, footage of the two girls running through the field was used as part of a propaganda ad posted by the Russian embassy in Spain to its Twitter account. The ad was designed as an attempt to convince people to move to Russia. Among the benefits of moving to Russia listed in the video are “no cancel culture,” “an economy that can withstand thousands of sanctions,” and “vodka.”

 

1666276680722-doug-mastriano-russian-pro

 

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Why I'm Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up

 

By Nate Silver

OCT. 21, 2022, AT 6:00 AM

 

The Senate started out as a toss-up when we launched our forecast in June — and after a summer in which political developments mostly played to Democrats’ favor, there is now clear movement back toward Republicans. The FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast gives Democrats a 58 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, down from a peak of 71 percent last month.1


How to translate a roughly 60 percent chance into words is a tricky one, since it’s right on the threshold where you might choose to emphasize that one party is ahead or that it’s pretty close to 50-50. Poker players use the term “flip” (short for “coin flip”) when two hands have about an equal chance of winning, even if the chances aren’t exactly equal. Most players would describe this poker hand as a “flip,” for instance, even though the pair of 10s would win 57 percent of the time.

 

In politics, the similar term “toss-up” is often applied, although the definition is fuzzy. We’re even inconsistent in how we use it ourselves.2


But let’s get real. If a friend asked me to characterize the Senate race, I’d say “it’s pretty ****ing close,” and emphasize that neither party has much of an advantage. Here’s why.

For one thing, as of Thursday afternoon, Republicans realized a slight lead (of 0.1 percentage points) in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot average for the first time since Aug. 2.

 

A line chart showing voter preferences on the generic ballot, with Republicans leading by one-tenth of a percentage point as of Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022.

 

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