Heinicke Hive: The LEGEND of Taylor Heinicke Thread

[tmandoug1]

9 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

Someone should tell Gil he’s apparently dead.

Edit complete....thank you. 

[mistertim]

40 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Just out of curiosity, where do you put guys like Ryan, Stafford, Carr, Cousins, Jimmy G, maybe Carson Wentz. I honestly think Heinicke's expected output over the next few years is easily what they are doing. 

8	Taylor Heinicke	WAS	28	qb	11	10	5-5-0	244	363	67.2	2613	16	4.4	10	2.8	127	73	7.2	6.8	10.7	237.5	91.3	48.8	23	156	6.0	6.37	6.03	2	3

5	Matt Ryan	ATL	36	QB	11	11	5-6-0	256	379	67.5	2617	16	4.2	11	2.9	135	64	6.9	6.4	10.2	237.9	89.1	50.5	21	156	5.3	6.15	5.72	3	3

7	Kirk Cousins	MIN	33	QB	11	11	5-6-0	275	406	67.7	3013	23	5.7	3	0.7	138	64	7.4	8.2	11.0	273.9	105.3	57.1	15	114	3.6	6.89	7.66	2	3

19	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	30	qb	10	10	6-4-0	187	280	66.8	2342	13	4.6	6	2.1	107	83	8.4	8.3	12.5	234.2	99.1	58.5	18	113	6.0	7.48	7.45	1	1

10	Matthew Stafford	LAR	33	QB	11	11	7-4-0	266	400	66.5	3316	27	6.8	9	2.3	158	79	8.3	8.6	12.5	301.5	105.2	65.7	16	137	3.8	7.64	7.97	2	2

9	Derek Carr	LVR	30	QB	11	11	6-5-0	278	413	67.3	3414	17	4.1	9	2.2	142	61	8.3	8.1	12.3	310.4	97.3	57.3	25	152	5.7	7.45	7.30	1	3

12	Carson Wentz	IND	29	QB	12	12	6-6-0	250	398	62.8	2790	21	5.3	5	1.3	129	76	7.0	7.5	11.2	232.5	96.0	56.6	21	153	5.0	6.29	6.76

 

This is just one year but you're seeing similar completion percentage TDs (Cousins and Stafford are higher Jimmy G is lower), INTs (again Cousins is much lower) and YPA. 

 

The question becomes can he take over a game. Well, looking at 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives Heinicke has 2 and 3 (2 + 3 = 5) compared to 6, 5, 2, 4, 4  and 0 so he's right in the middle of the pack with them. He has the lowest QBR of them and the second lowest passer rating and I think a lot of that is showing that over that 4 game losing stretch when we had kicker problems he wasn't taking over games like he did in two of the first 4. Then the 3 wins have come from him just making wise decisions but also helping win the time of possession on those long game clinching drives. 

 

But I ask this question because I can easily see Heinicke having careers like these guys and the question becomes what would WFT fans think of that? Would we call Heinicke a failure, particularly if he's taking us to the playoffs? One other thing to note (and I know a team's record is not solely based on the QB) but look at all these QBs W/L record. 5-5, 5-6, 5-6, 6-4, 7-4, 6-5, 6-6. None of these guys are on dominant teams and none are on stinkers. Its interesting because Stafford's team roster wise is a world beater and Carr's team is full of speed everywhere. 

 

What I find interesting is that we (not you  and I but this board) were having discussions on bringing in Ryan and Stafford and possibly Carr in the offseason. And we're getting similar production out of Heinicke. What I think we're seeing is this guy's ceiling keeps constantly getting raised. Going from a guy who doesn't belong in the league, to a guy who could be a backup, to a guy who could be a good backup and spot starter, to a guy who could start for a bad team, to a guy who could lead a team to the playoffs. I'm not saying he'll ever be a top 10 QB but I think he can easily get to the top 15 range. I remember the board was having this same conversation about Cousins and now he's definitely at the head of that second tier. He'll probably never win anything but he's having an MVP like season (at least stats wise). All Heinicke needs to do is sure up the INT number and he'd have just about everything else right up there with some of the top guys in this category. 

 

 

I could see Jimmy G comparison. Maybe Carr, but IMO he's still produced at a higher level over his career than what Heinicke is doing now. Stafford is a clear upgrade. Ryan at this point in his career probably isn't much of one but to be honest I've never seen him as a top 10 QB outside of 1 season. Wentz is probably an upgrade due to his physical talents, but might not be a huge one. Cousins would be a clear upgrade in theory and numbers, but he's always had the Tony Romo choke gene, so that always has to be taken into account.

 

As far as where Heinicke lands on the QB range, I think 15 would be his ceiling due to the nature of his physical limitations and IMO he hasn't shown himself to be a game changer who can put a team on his back (so far). You mentioned "taking over a game" but I don't see that as just leading a 4th quarter comeback. To me a guy who takes over games is one who is throwing for a ton of yards, lots of big plays, and lots of TDs. That's what the top QBs in the NFL tend to do, and that's not Heinicke right now. At this point he's basically a game manger.

 

If Heinicke had a career like Carr, Ryan, Wentz, Kirk, Jimmy G, etc then that's basically "ok" but not great so I'd still be looking for an upgrade. Pretty much all of those guys are good enough to help their teams get to middle of the road records, but not much more (with a few exceptions like Ryan when he was earlier in his career).

 

And to be way up there near the top IMO Heinicke would not only need to lower the INTs, but up the TDs as well as be able to air it out more (IIRC it was @Skinsinparadisewho posted an infographic showing TH as one of the lowest in air yards). He's currently in the bottom half of the league in TDs and the top half in INTs. 

 

So yes, Heinicke is a serviceable QB at the moment, but he's still mostly a game manager and not a dude who really strikes fear into opponents I'm guessing. We could certainly do worse, but I think we could also do better. Teams with the QBs you mentioned are probably also looking for their own truly elite passer. That's why SF gave up a king's ransom for Trey Lance. Guys like Carr, Cousins, and Stafford have always shown just enough to give their teams hope that they'll make that leap into elite status, though none of them really have. 

[Spaceman Spiff]

15 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I'm not talking about running at all. I'm talking about the overall QB skill difference between Drew Brees/Russel Wilson and Chad Pennington/Tyrod Taylor. Those guys aren't even in the same galaxy. It just makes no sense as a comparison. As far as TH, if I had to make a comparison I'd say guys like Brees and Wilson are QB Ferraris and Heinicke is an MX-5 Miata. Middle of the road sports car and can get the job done, but certainly not a Ferrari (though to be fair, a hell of a lot cheaper than a Ferrari and can still get you from point A to point B well enough usually).

 

 

Paging @TryTheBeal!to the thread.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Folks be like - "You can't judge a QB with so few starts"

 

A few posts later - "Dude is like Favre"

 

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

14 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

Paging @TryTheBeal!to the thread.  

Miata > most Ferraris 

[Thinking Skins]

Just playing with some more numbers on these QBs. I was looking at their QBRs and figured I'd look at the game by game logs and computated something like their contributions to W/L. 

Carson Wentz https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/2573079/carson-wentz
QBRs above 75: 3
QBRs below 40: 3

 

Taylor Heinicke https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/2565969/taylor-heinicke

QBRs above 75: 2
QBRs below 40: 4

Derek Carr https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/16757/derek-carr

QBRs above 75: 4
QBRs below 40: 3

 

Matt Ryan https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/11237/matt-ryan

QBRs above 75: 2
QBRs below 40: 6

 

Kirk Cousins https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14880/kirk-cousins

QBRs above 75: 4
QBRs below 40: 4

 

Jared Goff https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3046779/jared-goff

QBRs above 75: 0
QBRs below 40: 7

Matthew Stafford https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/12483/matthew-stafford

QBRs above 75: 5
QBRs below 40: 2

 

Jimmy Garappolo https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/16760/jimmy-garoppolo

QBRs above 75: 3
QBRs below 40: 2

 

This is not saying much but I don't see that much of a difference between these guys. Yeah Stafford is the leader of the pack right now but on a stacked team. Cousins is putting up greater numbers in some areas, but has just as many stinkers. @mistertim, I kinda agree that I'd like to see more TDs but its all in context. If we're up 24-10 and score again, I couldn't care less about that TD other than giving me more comfort about the win (the TD to Thomas against Seattle for example). I would like our scoring offense to average in the upper 20s per game instead of the teens but I think thats within his wheelhouse. Can I see Heinicke having 5 more games with a QBR above 75? Sure. How many more does he have with a QBR below 40? Not sure. But I think if he can continue this style of play with us winning games and him getting critical first downs to extend drives when we need them, then its showing he can put the team on his back. 

[TradeTheBeal!]

This is the obvious automobile comp to Taylor Heinicke.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

31 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I could see Jimmy G comparison. Maybe Carr, but IMO he's still produced at a higher level over his career than what Heinicke is doing now. Stafford is a clear upgrade. Ryan at this point in his career probably isn't much of one but to be honest I've never seen him as a top 10 QB outside of 1 season. Wentz is probably an upgrade due to his physical talents, but might not be a huge one. Cousins would be a clear upgrade in theory and numbers, but he's always had the Tony Romo choke gene, so that always has to be taken into account.

 

 

I can see Heinicke developing into a Jimmy G type QB.  Don't love the comparison to Carr -- Carr has a fairly big arm and makes big throws down the field.

 

I think the Jeff Garcia comp that some use for Heinicke could be apt.  Heinicke to me is a scrappy, high intangibles, make plays on the move type of dude.  

 

If Heinicke had an arm like Wilson or K. Murray his upside would be really tantalizing to me. But alas he doesn't.  But I could totally see Jeff Garcia.  

Edited December 3, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I can see Heinicke developing into a Jimmy G type QB.  Don't love the comparison to Carr -- Carr has a fairly big arm and makes big throws down the field.

 

I think the Jeff Garcia comp that some use for Heinicke could be apt.  Heinicke to me is a scrappy, high intangibles, make plays on the move type of dude.  

 

If Heinicke had an arm like Wilson or K. Murray his upside would be really tantalizing to me. But alas he doesn't.  But I could totally see Jeff Garcia.  

 

I'm not saying anything about style of play. I think that's too complex to characterize to a single element like "these two are similar." That said, there are a number of QBs in the league that people will not question their status as starters in the league. That was why I brought up these guys. There's a metric called Good Game Percentage (which is QBR Games above 75 divided by number of games played), as well as a number of others and I'm looking at those and saying that in a lot of these areas we're seeing similar production from Heinicke as we're seeing from these legit starters. So if Heinicke is producing similar production as a legit starter, that would mean he's a legit starter. 

[mistertim]

13 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Just playing with some more numbers on these QBs. I was looking at their QBRs and figured I'd look at the game by game logs and computated something like their contributions to W/L. 

Carson Wentz https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/2573079/carson-wentz
QBRs above 75: 3
QBRs below 40: 3

 

Taylor Heinicke https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/2565969/taylor-heinicke

QBRs above 75: 2
QBRs below 40: 4

Derek Carr https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/16757/derek-carr

QBRs above 75: 4
QBRs below 40: 3

 

Matt Ryan https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/11237/matt-ryan

QBRs above 75: 2
QBRs below 40: 6

 

Kirk Cousins https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14880/kirk-cousins

QBRs above 75: 4
QBRs below 40: 4

 

Jared Goff https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3046779/jared-goff

QBRs above 75: 0
QBRs below 40: 7

Matthew Stafford https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/12483/matthew-stafford

QBRs above 75: 5
QBRs below 40: 2

 

Jimmy Garappolo https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/16760/jimmy-garoppolo

QBRs above 75: 3
QBRs below 40: 2

 

This is not saying much but I don't see that much of a difference between these guys. Yeah Stafford is the leader of the pack right now but on a stacked team. Cousins is putting up greater numbers in some areas, but has just as many stinkers. @mistertim, I kinda agree that I'd like to see more TDs but its all in context. If we're up 24-10 and score again, I couldn't care less about that TD other than giving me more comfort about the win (the TD to Thomas against Seattle for example). I would like our scoring offense to average in the upper 20s per game instead of the teens but I think thats within his wheelhouse. Can I see Heinicke having 5 more games with a QBR above 75? Sure. How many more does he have with a QBR below 40? Not sure. But I think if he can continue this style of play with us winning games and him getting critical first downs to extend drives when we need them, then its showing he can put the team on his back. 

 

Ok, that's fine. You want to compare him to those guys, have at it. But I doubt there's a single GM or coach in the NFL who would take Heinicke over Stafford, Cousins, probably Carr, and probably Wentz. Ryan is a probably a wash because of his age. Goff is also probably a wash; he's having a relatively poor year but he has talent and is on a team with easily the worst roster in the NFL. I might be able to see a team taking Heinicke over Jimmy G but IMO they're relatively close as far as players.

 

I get that you think we can win with Heinicke and he's not a bad QB. Which he's not. But he's not a game changer. He's not a guy who can put a team on his back and toss a bunch of TDs if the defense isn't playing well. His upside is also limited due to his physical limitations. I think we can be a 7 or maybe 9 win team with him, if all other cylinders are clicking. But if they're not IMO he's not a dude who's going to be able to get past that.

 

And really, that's a lot of QBs (as you pointed out). But that doesn't mean you can't keep looking for an upgrade at the position if you basically have a game manager. IMO the biggest issue with Heinicke is his lack of upside. If he had big time physical talent but was still raw then I'd say with his other attributes we've seen he could potentially end up in the upper echelon. But he doesn't have that. So at the moment he's a around a upper teens NFL QB. That could certainly change, but I still find it unlikely that he'd get above a middle of the pack player.

[Thinking Skins]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I get that you think we can win with Heinicke and he's not a bad QB. Which he's not. But he's not a game changer. He's not a guy who can put a team on his back and toss a bunch of TDs if the defense isn't playing well. His upside is also limited due to his physical limitations. I think we can be a 7 or maybe 9 win team with him, if all other cylinders are clicking. But if they're not IMO he's not a dude who's going to be able to get past that.

 

And really, that's a lot of QBs (as you pointed out). But that doesn't mean you can't keep looking for an upgrade at the position if you basically have a game manager. IMO the biggest issue with Heinicke is his lack of upside. If he had big time physical talent but was still raw then I'd say with his other attributes we've seen he could potentially end up in the upper echelon. But he doesn't have that. So at the moment he's a around a upper teens NFL QB. That could certainly change, but I still find it unlikely that he'd get above a middle of the pack player.

exactly 

 

So now we get to the whole Redshirt Rookie thing and we say that what's his ceiling. Is it just this level or is it more? During this season (particularly the 4 game losing streak) people were mad that he wasn't running any more. He's still not running (3rd and 1 he could have have a first down if kept it). But he is showing his elusiveness in the pocket. I think that early in the season (first 4 games), they put a lot on him and he was doing well (2 wins) so they just kept putting more on him until it became too much (4 losses). Now they're trying to take some of that back but the question I think is still how much can he handle? We saw him able to lead the team late against Seattle for the potential sealing score. Why couldn't we see that a drive earlier? I think Heinicke still has untapped potential that we haven't seen simply because he's growing into his role. 

 

So the question becomes what if we can get a QB that has Stafford type stats (QBR above 75 is 50% of his games) from Heinicke. Is that a good ceiling? When is it enough? I have been saying that if he takes us to the playoffs it will say a lot, and if he wins a game it will almost cement him for at least a year if not give him a new contract. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I don't really get the urgency to determine who Heineke is as a player.  He has 6 games left, 5 being in the division.  He's also under contract next year for a little over a million.  We've got plenty of time to see if both his style of play and this run-heavy scheme have staying power.  Because to me that's the package deal.  It all has to work together to get optimal Heineke - which is pouding the rock successfully and playing solid defense.  If we need him to chuck it 40 times, these conversations change drastically.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

28 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I don't really get the urgency to determine who Heineke is as a player.  He has 6 games left, 5 being in the division.  He's also under contract next year for a little over a million.  We've got plenty of time to see if both his style of play and this run-heavy scheme have staying power.  Because to me that's the package deal.  It all has to work together to get optimal Heineke - which is pouding the rock successfully and playing solid defense.  If we need him to chuck it 40 times, these conversations change drastically.

 

If the offensive personnel were different, the scheme would change and Heinicke might be able to play that way as well.  We don't know.

 

Our best pieces are McLaurin, the TE's, the OL, and some RB's.  Maybe if Curtis Samuel got healthy enough we'd see the offense evolve again.  But right now using our best talent seems to be leaning on the run game.  If we suddenly had Mike Evans or Keenan Allen, then what was asked of Heinicke would change.  Could he do it?  Don't know.  But at least we found something he can do well.

[Koolblue13]

The key to us winning is definitely getting the ball out of Heinickes hands and letting the run game take over. Then it sets up the play action, which is him pretending to give it to the running back. Limit the throws we need him to make and he is okay. Rely on him to carry us and we're in trouble. 

[Thinking Skins]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/12/3/22815653/taylor-heinicke-washington-football-team-future

 

     What Is Taylor Heinicke’s Future With the Washington Football Team?

 

This is a good writeup. 

[goskins10]

1 hour ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Miata > most Ferraris 

 

 

Sorry for the digression but....  The Monster Miata! One of the best cars ever!!  

 

 

[mistertim]

43 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

If the offensive personnel were different, the scheme would change and Heinicke might be able to play that way as well.  We don't know.

 

Our best pieces are McLaurin, the TE's, the OL, and some RB's.  Maybe if Curtis Samuel got healthy enough we'd see the offense evolve again.  But right now using our best talent seems to be leaning on the run game.  If we suddenly had Mike Evans or Keenan Allen, then what was asked of Heinicke would change.  Could he do it?  Don't know.  But at least we found something he can do well.

 

That's a possibility. I think it also could be a possibility that Turner and company are relying heavily on the run game due to Heinicke's arm limitations. There are certainly other QBs who don't have all star pass catching talent but who air it out quite a bit. You shouldn't need multiple pro bowl receivers and tight ends to have an effective passing game, though you do need a QB with the arm to get it to the guys you do have.

 

According to air yard stats, right now either Turner is focusing on the short game to play to Heinicke's strengths and limit his weaknesses, or Heinicke himself is tending to go shorter as he goes through his progressions.

[wit33]

I’ll pass on the average to above average QB salary and continue to grind it out with Heineke types while trying to hit on a rookie. 
 

I want zero part of an above average QB that lacks mobility at 10% or more of the cap. Too much data for me that says it doesn’t work. The guys being listed would have a similar record as Heineke with this roster. Above average and have mobility, I’m intrigued. 

[goskins10]

I agree with @BatteredFanSyndrome that there is no value in trying to determine his ceiling right now. We still have a pretty small sample size. On the positive side, he continues to show improvement and is growing into the position. He had problems throwing it high, those seem to have gone away. He was forcing plays and he showing more patience and playing smarter. He had a injury issue so he bulked up the right way and is staying on the field. 

 

I know people get thier knickers in a wad when you bring this up, but his lack of arm strength does place limitations on the playbook and forces him to commit to a throw sooner than someone with a rocket. It's not debilitating by any means and he and Scott are really developing the offense to reduce the impact. BTW: I saw someone posted the air yards stat that put him in the middle of the pack. That's not the full story. Those numbers were for Air Yards attempted. His air yards completed is much lower placing him in the bottom of all starters. 

 

But I really like how he is developing. One by one he is removing weaknesses in his game. Shows a commitment to his craft. Also, as much as I like stats, is they rarely tell the whole story. You give me Kirk's numbers and Taylor's numbers and I am certain I can make the case that much of Kirk's numbers are empty. Where Taylor does really seem to rise to the occasion. I would take him right now over Kirk and many other QBs with the game on the line. 

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

exactly 

 

So now we get to the whole Redshirt Rookie thing and we say that what's his ceiling. Is it just this level or is it more? During this season (particularly the 4 game losing streak) people were mad that he wasn't running any more. He's still not running (3rd and 1 he could have have a first down if kept it). But he is showing his elusiveness in the pocket. I think that early in the season (first 4 games), they put a lot on him and he was doing well (2 wins) so they just kept putting more on him until it became too much (4 losses). Now they're trying to take some of that back but the question I think is still how much can he handle? We saw him able to lead the team late against Seattle for the potential sealing score. Why couldn't we see that a drive earlier? I think Heinicke still has untapped potential that we haven't seen simply because he's growing into his role. 

 

So the question becomes what if we can get a QB that has Stafford type stats (QBR above 75 is 50% of his games) from Heinicke. Is that a good ceiling? When is it enough? I have been saying that if he takes us to the playoffs it will say a lot, and if he wins a game it will almost cement him for at least a year if not give him a new contract. 

 

I know you said "stats", but we're never going to get Stafford's ability out of Heinicke because there's an absolutely massive difference in natural talent. Stafford can do things with his arm that Heinicke can't even come close to doing, and that will cause limitations in play calling. Again that's not "stats", but it matters. Stafford is playing at a much higher level right now than Heinicke. There's a reason there was such a big market for him and that we were willing to give up a 1st and change for him.

[Thinking Skins]

I'm trying to measure impact on game which QBR does well to an extend. If we look at Stafford in previous years we see this similarity to Heinicke. 

 

Stafford: 

2009: 
Above 75: 2

Below 40: 6

 

2011: 

Above 75: 4

Below 40: 4

 

2012

Above 75: 3

Below 40: 2

 

2013

Above 75: 2

Below 40: 6

 

2014

Above 75: 3

Below 40: 10

 

I can keep going. I'm not saying that they're the same QB but Stafford is not some worldbeater QB known for putting teams on his back. He's a middle of the pack guy. But he's thought of as this savior type guy because of his arm. yeah he can make the throws but he doesn't lead his team to wins. 

[mistertim]

21 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I'm trying to measure impact on game which QBR does well to an extend. If we look at Stafford in previous years we see this similarity to Heinicke. 

 

Stafford: 

2009: 
Above 75: 2

Below 40: 6

 

2011: 

Above 75: 4

Below 40: 4

 

2012

Above 75: 3

Below 40: 2

 

2013

Above 75: 2

Below 40: 6

 

2014

Above 75: 3

Below 40: 10

 

I can keep going. I'm not saying that they're the same QB but Stafford is not some worldbeater QB known for putting teams on his back. He's a middle of the pack guy. But he's thought of as this savior type guy because of his arm. yeah he can make the throws but he doesn't lead his team to wins. 

 

I never said Stafford was an elite upper echelon QB along the Mahomes/Brady/Rodgers lines. But I think it's ridiculous to say he and Heinicke are on the same level. You seem to like QBR. Stafford has the #2 QBR in the NFL right now. IMO he's a legit top 10 QB, especially this season so far.

 

I'm willing to bet there are precisely zero NFL coaches who would even consider taking Heinicke over Stafford if they had that choice. Again, we literally offered a 1st round pick plus more to try and get Stafford and so did the Rams. If Heinicke and Stafford were even close to the same level, the Rams would have just offered us a 2nd rounder for him and called it a day. I'm sure we would have taken that in a heartbeat considering what he cost us.

 

I don't get why you keep trying these ticky-tacky semantic arguments. Nobody thinks Heinicke is as good as Stafford outside of maybe a few ODU fans.

Edited December 3, 2021 by mistertim

[Thinking Skins]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

I never said Stafford was an elite upper echelon QB along the Mahomes/Brady/Rodgers line. But I think it's ridiculous to say he and Heinicke are on the same level. You seem to like QBR. Stafford has the #2 QBR in the NFL right now. IMO he's a legit top 10 QB, especially this season so far.

 

I'm willing to bet there are precisely zero NFL coaches who would even consider taking Heinicke over Stafford if they had that choice. Again, we literally offered a 1st round pick plus more to try and get Stafford and so did the Rams. If Heinicke and Stafford were even close to the same level, the Rams would have just offered us a 2nd rounder for him and called it a day. I'm sure we would have taken that in a heartbeat considering what he cost us.

 

I don't get why you keep trying these semantic arguments. Nobody thinks Heinicke is as good as Stafford outside of maybe a few ODU fans.

But you're comparing a 12 year veteran Stafford. I'm saying look at rookie Stafford up to say 28 year old Stafford. His 2014 numbers were very similar to Heinicke's stats this year. Heck if you look at Stafford's stats over his career you see him collapse in November and December after starting hot. He is not some QB thats untouchable for Heinicke. His QBRs over his first 6 years were 37, 50, 60, 56, 53, and 47. Dude had a lot of mediocre years. I think its definitely possible for Heinicke to put a team on his back like Stafford if not better. 

 

But its not about Stafford, its about the argument that these guys are a tier above Heinicke. I'm saying they're not. Even if you want to say that Stafford is now, I'm saying that as recent a 2 years ago he wasn't when he had a QBR of 51. Heinicke may never be in the Mahomes/Brady/Rodgers league but he is definitely one of those middle of the pack QBs that can go for a run and take his team to the playoffs and possibly win in the playoffs because he's doing it right now. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

I'm not saying anything about style of play. I think that's too complex to characterize to a single element like "these two are similar." That said, there are a number of QBs in the league that people will not question their status as starters in the league. That was why I brought up these guys. There's a metric called Good Game Percentage (which is QBR Games above 75 divided by number of games played), as well as a number of others and I'm looking at those and saying that in a lot of these areas we're seeing similar production from Heinicke as we're seeing from these legit starters. So if Heinicke is producing similar production as a legit starter, that would mean he's a legit starter. 

 

For me, Carr is cementing himself in that 10-14 range.  IMO Heinicke is outside that range so far.  Can he jump into that mix?  Maybe.  Would I bet on it?  Nope.  But the 15-20 range, i could potentially see it.

 

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[TradeTheBeal!]

Physical limitations aside, HineyHiney sure has the look of a top 15 guy just in the mental/intangible/clutch aspect.  And that’s pretty rare, tbh.