Heinicke Hive: The LEGEND of Taylor Heinicke Thread

[skinny21]

IMO, even more important than the general - “let’s see how he plays the rest of the season” is “let’s see how he plays vs the divisional opponents” (even though it’s much the same point).  Playing well against the rest of the division outweighs average/below average play vs the rest of the league.

But probably even more important is how Turner feels about Heinicke’s arm strength.  If he thinks it’s limiting his play calling, ability to stretch the field, or whatever, it might not matter whether Heinicke plays the rest of the season like the first 8 games or the past 3 games.

 

Seems to me that roughly speaking, statistically Heinicke is playing at a level comparable with Tannehill this year (bit of a down year from Tannehill it seems).  And his last few games statistically have been roughly on par with Tannehill’s better seasons.  So this kind of begs the question of what do we mean when we say ‘franchise qb”?  

If we’re talking about a guy routinely in the top 5 conversation - something we’d all love to have - TH ain’t ever gonna be that guy.  

If we’re talking about someone that’s arguably top 10, but clearly not top 5 (the Staffords, Ryans, Cousins types), I doubt TH is that guy (though his intangibles, growth and play the past 3 games leave that a slim possibility).  

If we’re talking about a guy that can helm a good team to consistently be in the playoff conversation… well, it’s too early to tell, but there are certainly signs TH could be that guy.

 

It’s interesting to look at guys that maybe fit in that 3rd category - Goff, Garrapolo, Jones and Tannehill - and compare them to Heinicke.  For example, he doesn’t fumble like Jones, and has better movement than Goff and Garrapolo.  I’d be curious what other factors posters here would compare/contrast between those 5 as I don’t follow the rest of the league that closely.  Then take those comparisons and factor in that he doesn’t have nearly the experience of those guys and has shown fairly impressive growth over the course of the past year.

 

Broadly speaking, I still want to roll the dice on trying to land that elite qb.  In terms of this draft in particular (based on what little I know), I’m not trading significant resources to move up.  I’d strongly consider a small trade up (spending a mid round pick to do so) or taking a qb with our natural selection.  I’d also definitely look at trying to accrue picks in order to trade up next year.  Given TH’s play/growth, if the above options don’t work out, adding talent to the team and rolling with TH next year is a backup plan I can definitely get on board with, even if we decide TH isn’t the qb of the future, because he’s fun to watch, fun to root for, and should at the least keep us pretty competitive if we can field a pretty good team around him.

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by skinny21

[London Kev]

27 minutes ago, TChaler70 said:

I was interested in the other TH, Taysom Hill, because in my uninformed head I thought the stories were similar I know now they arent after listening to New Orleans sports radio on the way home. But after that Thur game the fans have turned on him from I what I was hearing and they apparently have cap problems and are worried what Winston will cost after signing Hill.

 

Any way my point a person called in and mentioned since we had Fitz signed through next year, I dont think that is true, that they offer a 4th or 5th for Taylor. Just fans BSing but interesting. But if Fitz is here next year or you can get him here, would you take a 4th and run and then draft the young QB which seems everybody wants to do. 

 

IIRC Fitz signed a one-year, $10 mil contract so he's not signed for next year.

 

It appears that most posters want to bring in another QB (via draft or trade). We can do that and still keep Heinicke, the two things are not mutually exclusive. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

6 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

This is a really good video. It came out before the Seattle game. It's a fun watch from a fan. 

 

 

 

 

It would be if he didn't completely botch the stats lol...said Heinicke had 4 TDs against the Bucs in the playoff game--threw 3 TDs and ran one in. Ummmm...

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

 

It’s interesting to look at guys that maybe fit in that 3rd category - Goff, Garrapolo, Jones and Tannehill - and compare them to Heinicke.  For example, he doesn’t fumble like Jones, and has better movement than Goff and Garrapolo.  I’d be curious what other factors posters here would compare/contrast between those 5 as I don’t follow the rest of the league that closely.  Then take those comparisons and factor in that he doesn’t have nearly the experience of those guys and has shown fairly impressive growth over the course of the past year.

 

 

IMO these guys are basically QB purgatory. Guys like Carr, Garropolo, Goff, Mayfield, etc. They're guys who are in that 15-20ish range and who are just good enough and have enough moments to give the team hope that they can turn the corner and become top tier, so they hold on to them for years.

 

But the eventual reality is usually that they stay in that same range. Which is basically just good enough to get you enough wins to not be in a position to draft a top QB prospect but probably not good enough to win you a Super Bowl.

 

Personally I'd rather have a horrible bust than a 15-20 guy, because at least then you know for sure that the dude sucks and should be jettisoned and you can move on and draft another guy. That's why I wasn't really upset about Haskins (that and the fact that I wasn't a fan of drafting him anyway). We realized quickly that he was awful and cut ties quickly.

 

I like many aspects of Heinicke's game, and he seems like a really good dude, but honestly that's one of my worries with him. That he'll basically be one of those 15-20 range QB purgatory guys where we end up as a perennial 7 or 8 win team with little to no chance of a SB title. 

[Spaceman Spiff]

17 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

 

I like many aspects of Heinicke's game, and he seems like a really good dude, but honestly that's one of my worries with him. That he'll basically be one of those 15-20 range QB purgatory guys where we end up as a perennial 7 or 8 win team with little to no chance of a SB title. 

 

I think you can win with a guy like that...but the rest of the team has to be exceptional.  I mean, the Ravens won their first Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer.  And their second with Joe Flacco.  Dilfer was the definition of pedestrian and probably below that 15-20th ranking.  Flacco was, IMO, in that 15th-20th range but to his credit he was absolutely on fire during that playoff stretch.  

 

That's the thing with a mid tier QB, they can get hot for a 3-4 game stretch and play above their heads.  It's certainly not a game plan for success.

 

Anyway, In regards to Heinicke, I'm done trying to figure out exactly what he is.  If he balls out for the rest of the season and this team makes the playoffs...well, maybe some people around here are going to have to do some reconsidering on what he is.  But if the rest of the season is up and down...well, he's still a great backup.

[Thinking Skins]

46 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Personally I'd rather have a horrible bust than a 15-20 guy, because at least then you know for sure that the dude sucks and should be jettisoned and you can move on and draft another guy. That's why I wasn't really upset about Haskins (that and the fact that I wasn't a fan of drafting him anyway). We realized quickly that he was awful and cut ties quickly.

So I'll get back into this philosophical discussion. I am on the other end. Sure the bust at QB let's you know more about your team and know you need a QB etc. But the football also sucks. You are out of it be November. Every year you're praying that the draft will solve your problems or making up scenarios where whatever QB may become available will come here and be a savior. But for the most part you're just irrelevant. It's not fun. You're the Browns before Mayfield.

 

Now Mayfield is nobody I'd want here or call a franchise guy but at least he brings life to that team. He took them to the playoffs and beat Pittsburgh. That's almost exactly what I'm saying I want from Heinicke. 

 

We can disagree about Heinicke's range or ceiling but the thought of do you need a top QB to win it all I think is another question. Jimmy G almost won one. Goff almost won one. Grossman almost won one. Keenum almost won one. Bortels almost won one. I can keep going. And this is the almosts, not the ones who won. That's exciting football. It's an exciting season. If it's because we're lucky and all the stars are aligning, so what. If that gets us a ring or even breaks our conference championship streak, it's something that will make me smile. I miss good football in this city. 

 

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

So I'll get back into this philosophical discussion. I am on the other end. Sure the bust at QB let's you know more about your team and know you need a QB etc. But the football also sucks. You are out of it be November. Every year you're praying that the draft will solve your problems or making up scenarios where whatever QB may become available will come here and be a savior. But for the most part you're just irrelevant. It's not fun. You're the Browns before Mayfield.

 

Now Mayfield is nobody I'd want here or call a franchise guy but at least he brings life to that team. He took them to the playoffs and beat Pittsburgh. That's almost exactly what I'm saying I want from Heinicke. 

 

We can disagree about Heinicke's range or ceiling but the thought of do you need a top QB to win it all I think is another question. Jimmy G almost won one. Goff almost won one. Grossman almost won one. Keenum almost won one. Bortels almost won one. I can keep going. And this is the almosts, not the ones who won. That's exciting football. It's an exciting season. If it's because we're lucky and all the stars are aligning, so what. If that gets us a ring or even breaks our conference championship streak, it's something that will make me smile. I miss good football in this city. 

 

 

I just don't fine mediocrity exciting. Being 7-9 or 8-8 isn't exciting. Being a perennial Super Bowl contender is exciting. And the only current surefire way to that is having an elite QB. Sure there can be some exciting moments in an 8-8 season but they pretty much never actually go anywhere. It's like going on tons of dates and constantly getting to first or second base but never actually getting laid. 

 

And yes, of course it's possible for that middle of the road QB to get to a SB or even win one. But it's very unlikely and by far the exception. It also basically never happens more than once. It's a one and done thing. Flacco, Foles, Jimmy G, Goff, Kaep. All of those guys got to the big game once and never really sniffed it again. That's been my whole point with this entire conversation (in general, not just with you): yeah you might get super lucky and get to a SB with a mediocre QB and stellar supporting cast, but it's extremely unlikely, and you're never going to get there again.

 

If you want to be in the mix for a championship year in and year out over a long period of time, you have to have a top QB. A mediocre QB and stellar supporting cast/defense will get you a 2-3 year window. An elite QB will get you a 10-15 year window. I prefer to keep trying for the latter.

[TK]

RE: The finish to the Baylor/OSU game....Heini woulda made that pylon dive.  

[TChaler70]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

So I'll get back into this philosophical discussion. I am on the other end. Sure the bust at QB let's you know more about your team and know you need a QB etc. But the football also sucks. You are out of it be November. Every year you're praying that the draft will solve your problems or making up scenarios where whatever QB may become available will come here and be a savior. But for the most part you're just irrelevant. It's not fun. You're the Browns before Mayfield.

 

Now Mayfield is nobody I'd want here or call a franchise guy but at least he brings life to that team. He took them to the playoffs and beat Pittsburgh. That's almost exactly what I'm saying I want from Heinicke. 

 

We can disagree about Heinicke's range or ceiling but the thought of do you need a top QB to win it all I think is another question. Jimmy G almost won one. Goff almost won one. Grossman almost won one. Keenum almost won one. Bortels almost won one. I can keep going. And this is the almosts, not the ones who won. That's exciting football. It's an exciting season. If it's because we're lucky and all the stars are aligning, so what. If that gets us a ring or even breaks our conference championship streak, it's something that will make me smile. I miss good football in this city. 

 

I agree with this, and I know I am in the minority on this thought process but only one team wins the superbowl so if your definition of a successfully enjoyable season is only a superbowl win then you have a lot of seasons that are unenjoyable. I would much rather win 8 or 9 games constantly with one of these middle of the road QBs and maybe if the stars align right you get lucky.  You have many more enjoyable Mondays and you beat your rivalries from time to time plus you get to root for as of now a super cool guy in TH. But I am not a hardcore fan maybe some consider this looser talk.

 

Swinging for the fences all the time which is what WFT would need to do to get a franchise QB and the norm is 6 wins or less and having nothing to watch at this point is the issue the team has now. Then you have to waste games maybe seasons when you dont see anything even  you see this new QB isnt the guy. That creates so much fall out, no attendance at the stadium, loss of fans much less expanding the fan base, and maybe issues getting FA here among other things.

Edited December 4, 2021 by TChaler70

[TK]

8 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

This is a really good video. It came out before the Seattle game. It's a fun watch from a fan. 

 

 

He looks like Harry Potter

[zCommander]

4 hours ago, Califan007 said:

 

 

It would be if he didn't completely botch the stats lol...said Heinicke had 4 TDs against the Bucs in the playoff game--threw 3 TDs and ran one in. Ummmm...

 

In the beginning he says total 4 TDs. Later in the video he does breaks it down by saying 3 passing and one rush. I take it you probably didn't watch the whole video...lol

 

Edited December 4, 2021 by zskins

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

I just don't fine mediocrity exciting. Being 7-9 or 8-8 isn't exciting. Being a perennial Super Bowl contender is exciting. And the only current surefire way to that is having an elite QB. Sure there can be some exciting moments in an 8-8 season but they pretty much never actually go anywhere. It's like going on tons of dates and constantly getting to first or second base but never actually getting laid. 

 

And yes, of course it's possible for that middle of the road QB to get to a SB or even win one. But it's very unlikely and by far the exception. It also basically never happens more than once. It's a one and done thing. Flacco, Foles, Jimmy G, Goff, Kaep. All of those guys got to the big game once and never really sniffed it again. That's been my whole point with this entire conversation (in general, not just with you): yeah you might get super lucky and get to a SB with a mediocre QB and stellar supporting cast, but it's extremely unlikely, and you're never going to get there again.

 

If you want to be in the mix for a championship year in and year out over a long period of time, you have to have a top QB. A mediocre QB and stellar supporting cast/defense will get you a 2-3 year window. An elite QB will get you a 10-15 year window. I prefer to keep trying for the latter.

I don’t see Ron taking a stance of avoiding drafting a qb because Heinicke is in the fold.  It might temper some of the aggressiveness to get one this year though, and I think that makes `some  sense.  I’m of two minds about needing to land one of the top qbs in the draft.  On one hand, so many of the league’s top qbs were drafted outside of the top 5, including most of the elite ones (Brady, Brees, Mahomes, Rodgers, etc).  On the other hand, if this current group pans out (Lawrence, Wilson and Lance), and you add Murray, Burrow, Herbert and Allen (even though the latter 2 were picks 6 and 7 respectively), that’s a strong trend pointing to the idea that being able to land a top guy is a huge help.

 

As to your qb examples, Flacco lead to Jackson, Foles to Wentz (and then Hurts, while picking up nice draft picks), Goff to Stafford.  Only Kaep really lead to a lateral change.  So, while I guess you could point to a “qb purgatory”, you could also argue it allowed them to build up their teams and then upgrade their qb spots, or at the least, to have competitive years and still find franchise guys (obviously jury is still out on Hurts, though at least they got a trophy with Foles/Wentz).  Lot of nuance there though that I’m not of a mind to get into right now.

 

I guess what I’m getting at is I think I’d rather be competitive and still have a chance at a franchise (which, frankly, we still don’t know if TH is or isn’t) or elite qb, than be horrible and still be very far from certain we land a franchise qb (let alone an elite one).  Last year was kind of a fun ride and we had a chance at Stafford/Fields, and this year has been pretty exciting and we might have a chance at still drafting a guy that works out for us.

[Thinking Skins]

 

 

This is what I was looking for. It seems like the longest pass I can find Heinicke attempting is 40 yards ish. I've seen a few of those including some in the video posted earlier. This isn't about his accuracy but that's something to be interested in as well as his long the back takes to get there and whether he's throwing his arm out in doing these attempts. But it's interesting getting a number for his arm strength. 

[Thinking Skins]

 

[Thinking Skins]

Here's some more stuff. Looking at Heinicke's most improbable completions at https://www.nfl.com/videos/next-gen-stats-taylor-heincike-s-3-most-improbable-completions-week-10

Gives a few 30+ yards passes per game that's looking good. Not saying that makes a strong arm but just seeing what we're working with

[tmandoug1]

11 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I mean...ok. But that feels a bit like roller skates on the ole' goalposts.

 

But either way, I really don't think anyone here is saying Heinicke can't play in the NFL. It's clear that he can. I know I've said so numerous times. The main question now is what is his upper limit and is that upper limit good enough to call him the future of your franchise? I have some doubts but I'm still waiting for the rest of the season to unfold before making an evaluation on that.

Exactly..... but you are now hedging your bets.....

[mistertim]

@Thinking SkinsHonestly I don't really look at deep passes in general as a marker of arm strength or how far he can throw it. Pretty much any QB can heave a rainbow 40 or 50 yards downfield.

 

I usually prefer to watch small window sideline and out route throws to see how much zip and/or float is on them. To me that's a much better indicator of arm talent/strength. IMO that's an area where Heinicke struggles. His sideline and outside the number throws on out breaking routes were pretty consistently a bit late and lacking drive. That led to a lot of pass breakups and almost interceptions (and to at least two incredible adjustment catches by Terry).

 

That said, his deep balls do have a lot of loft on them at times. Not all of them, but there have been some that literally looked like punts. Again on several of those he's been absolutely bailed out by Terry (that dude is so damn good).

 

That's not necessarily me indicting Heinicke as not good, just acknowledging what his apparent weaknesses are. On shorter inside the number throws he's been absolute money. And it seems to me in the last few games that Turner has been somewhat limiting those out and sideline routes a bit, and focusing more on short and intermediate inside the numbers, which is smart. You want to game plan to your QB's strengths.

[Stone Cold]

7 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

IMO these guys are basically QB purgatory. Guys like Carr, Garropolo, Goff, Mayfield, etc. They're guys who are in that 15-20ish range and who are just good enough and have enough moments to give the team hope that they can turn the corner and become top tier, so they hold on to them for years.

 

But the eventual reality is usually that they stay in that same range. Which is basically just good enough to get you enough wins to not be in a position to draft a top QB prospect but probably not good enough to win you a Super Bowl.

 

Personally I'd rather have a horrible bust than a 15-20 guy, because at least then you know for sure that the dude sucks and should be jettisoned and you can move on and draft another guy. That's why I wasn't really upset about Haskins (that and the fact that I wasn't a fan of drafting him anyway). We realized quickly that he was awful and cut ties quickly.

 

I like many aspects of Heinicke's game, and he seems like a really good dude, but honestly that's one of my worries with him. That he'll basically be one of those 15-20 range QB purgatory guys where we end up as a perennial 7 or 8 win team with little to no chance of a SB title. 

About the best way to sum up how a lot of us feel.  I’m leaning in tho…eternal optimist I suppose lol 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

4 hours ago, zskins said:

 

In the beginning he says total 4 TDs. Later in the video he does breaks it down by saying 3 passing and one rush. I take it you probably didn't watch the whole video...lol

 

um, you just said the same thing I said lol…

[zCommander]

9 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

um, you just said the same thing I said lol…

 

I thought you were saying he said all 4 were passing... and your are saying he is not correct as there were 3 passing and 1 rush. I said he says that later in the video....maybe I am confused... okay i will just go back to drinking more...lol 

[London Kev]

33 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

I thought you were saying he said all 4 were passing... and your are saying he is not correct as there were 3 passing and 1 rush. I said he says that later in the video....maybe I am confused... okay i will just go back to drinking more...lol 

 

I think the point is we lost the game 31-23, so he couldn't have scored four TDs. 

[zCommander]

24 minutes ago, London Kev said:

 

I think the point is we lost the game 31-23, so he couldn't have scored four TDs. 

 

Hahah... ooppps. had to go back and look that up...now makes more sense...lol

[Stefanskins]

7 hours ago, mistertim said:

His sideline and outside the number throws on out breaking routes were pretty consistently a bit late and lacking drive.

Yes, but lately, lil more zip and his timing on the outs have gotten better…I can’t think of one since the break that looked terrible…sure, initially when he throws those out patterns my eyes tell me “oh no!! He’s not gonna make it to that point in time!!” But time and time again his noodle arm passes are precisely on point…this tells me he’s read the defense and absolutely knows where to place the ball with his wide receivers and most importantly when…it’s not how fast the ball gets there but when…

[HigSkin]

 

[zCommander]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

 

 

I guess Chris still blows hot air out of his ass... 😂