2021 Draft Order / Tracker: Current Pick #19

[Est.1974]

Rivera isn’t passing over on picking a QB again. Release Smith, free up 13-14mil in cap space. 

[88Comrade2000]

Which is cheaper, We cut Allex or he retires?

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Which is cheaper, We cut Allex or he retires?

same impact on the cap I believe. No guaranteed money left, so we just end up with ~11mil in dead cap reportedly.

[HanburgerHelper55]

Need some help guys...I would like to see a new discussion thread about philosophy of re-building. It appears to me that lines are being drawn between old school and new school football, I.E. Carolina/Washington or Alabama/BYU. Can we know which quarterback to choose UNTIL we pick a philosophy? Philosophy dictates selection and vision determines committment. There was this old movie called The Last Boyscout....

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Rivera isn’t passing over on picking a QB again. Release Smith, free up 13-14mil in cap space. 

They might keep Smith around to be the starter in 2021 and ease in the 2021 drafted QB. Maybe they can do some sort of a restructure of Smith's contract, but I don't think it's as much of a foregone conclusion that he's gone like many thought prior to the season.

54 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

same impact on the cap I believe. No guaranteed money left, so we just end up with ~11mil in dead cap reportedly.

OvertheCap says the hit would be $9m ... so it would free up about $14m if we cut him outright OR he retires.

 

Our cap situation next year will be interesting. We HAD a lot of projected cap, but that was when the projected cap was $210 to 220m. OvertheCap now has it projected at $176m. So we will roll over $23m into next year ... plus based on that projection we'd then have about $66 million in cap space if we cut Smith, and $52m if we don't. That's a lot of $$ to have compared to the rest of the league which will be in very dire straits with the roughly $40m in reduced cap.

[OVCChairman]

33 minutes ago, HanburgerHelper55 said:

Need some help guys...I would like to see a new discussion thread about philosophy of re-building. It appears to me that lines are being drawn between old school and new school football, I.E. Carolina/Washington or Alabama/BYU. Can we know which quarterback to choose UNTIL we pick a philosophy? Philosophy dictates selection and vision determines committment. There was this old movie called The Last Boyscout....

 

 

in all honesty there is no right answers.  If philosophy was the end all, then Baltimore would not have picked Jackson, or would have tried to turn him into something he's not.  Mahomes is not Alex Smith 2.0.  It's fluid.  Yes, in theory you want to develop a system and scheme, then pick players that fit that.   There is no guarantee that the best fit for your scheme is the best option to take in FA or the draft either.  There has to be a combination of understanding what you want to do, with the flexibility to utilize your talents in the best way possible.  I don't think you pass on the best player in the draft just because it's not a perfect fit, but you also don't draft Lamar jackson unless the other 10 guys can execute the type of offense suited to his talents.  

 

 

[Lovi]

15 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

They might keep Smith around to be the starter in 2021 and ease in the 2021 drafted QB. Maybe they can do some sort of a restructure of Smith's contract, but I don't think it's as much of a foregone conclusion that he's gone like many thought prior to the season.

OvertheCap says the hit would be $9m ... so it would free up about $14m if we cut him outright OR he retires.

 

Our cap situation next year will be interesting. We HAD a lot of projected cap, but that was when the projected cap was $210 to 220m. OvertheCap now has it projected at $176m. So we will roll over $23m into next year ... plus based on that projection we'd then have about $66 million in cap space if we cut Smith, and $52m if we don't. That's a lot of $$ to have compared to the rest of the league which will be in very dire straits with the roughly $40m in reduced cap.

Mara will find a way to bring us in line with the "competitive balance" and find a way to tax us.  HAHA.  Seriously screw that guy!

[Dark Acre]

50 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

The nfl division setup is perfect now. Every team gets to play each other on a regular basis. Under the old format, some teams almost never played each other.

 

[snip]

 

The East winner will have 5-7 wins.

 

1.  With FA turnover what it is today, it's the organizations who play each other, not the "teams" in the sense of the same players.  I'm not saying FA is bad, but these days they're not teams so much as rosters.

 

2.  The current system rewards bad divisions by guaranteeing the "best" of the bad (8-8 or worse) a playoff spot at the expense of a team that is at least 10-6.  2014, CAR wins the NFCS with a *losing* record while PHI at 10-6 sits home.  2013, GB wins div being a half game (8-7-1) over .500 while 10-6 AZ stays home.  2010, SEA wins NFCW at 7-9, 10-6 NYG and TB go home.  2008 - SD wins div at 8-8, NE at 11-5 is out.  11 and 5. 

 

Before 2002, which is when the 4 div/conf format was instituted, no team had ever won a division with less than a winning record.  Yes, there were a couple of 8-7-1 type winners, but there was nothing like the mischief that occurs now.  And, moreover, having more divisions leads to situations where, yes, a division winner has a winning record, but it's 9-7 and a much better team in another division is iced out.  I want good football, which the current system discourages.  Even more absurd -- a team that wins its division with 7 or fewer wins (which usually means it's going to lose its playoff game) is going to pick 19th in the draft.  WTH?  I can legitimately see a situation where every team in a horrible division tries to avoid winning it just for that reason.  Whereas at 6-10 you might be draft at #9, if you "win" your division, you lose 10 spots. 

 

Heck, might as well just hold an end-of-season lottery to determine all playoff teams, regardless of record.  It could be made into a spectacle with the latest HOF class picking the balls outta the hopper and then they can lottery the draft order for the remaining teams too.  Put it on TV, sell advertising, and make a fortune.  That's what the NFL is all about anyway.  Actually, I think that would be a lot of fun.

[Burgold]

I dunno. It's hard for me to see one game. That's probably pessimism talking since we beat the Cowboys and Eagles already. It wouldn't be hard for me to imagine us going 0-7 to finish it out. Not sure how I would feel about that. I was thinking we were a 6-7 win team that would be disciplined, tough, and with a few good bounces good make a run. Unfortunately, almost every bounce goes against us. I mean we've seen balls hit the upright and deflect in for a field goal. We are bad AND unlucky.

 

That's a really unfortunate combo.

[Darrell Green Fan]

5 hours ago, KDawg said:

Free agent QBs are a heavy cost against the cap. Smith will have dead cap money even if he is cut, though I believe the savings are slightly more than the dead cap hit.

 

Free agent QBs are a death knell to a team that has a cupboard that isn’t full. 
 

Free agency needs to be used to round out the roster. But the biggest problem on this team is linebackers and quarterback. Then it’s OL, tight end and safety. 
 

If the team can add some good pieces in a few of those non-QB positions in FA this is a different football team next year. Specifically at linebacker. That position is killing this team.

You see very little at the QB position from most colleges. Unless you’re willing to give Oklahoma that nod despite the fact their QBs aside from this year have been transfers.

 

And no, I’m not missing your point. I see what you guys are trying to argue. I am countering your point, which I feel you’re ignoring. 
 

It’s hard to hit on quarterback. Most schools don’t produce them on a regular basis. Skipping a top prospect because of school is not a good look.

 

I am not ignoring your point, I addressed it a couple of times.  It does not matter if the QB was originally signed to another school, the bottom line is they ended up at schools with the best talent in the country, including QB. So they are not like other schools, they have the one of the top QBs in the country year after year.

 

With all that said I would not hesitate to draft Fields if he is available.  

6 hours ago, IrepDC said:

 

Yeah so Alex Smith is playing some of the best football of his career, and we're still losing. You do not hand those keys to another rookie QB here, so this fanbase can give up on him within a season, unless he shows NFL ready, day 1 talent. Otherwise pick your Free Agent QB while we build the team through the draft another year. Smith looked really sharp out there yesterday. He's showing you what our team can do with a pro back there, and we still lost to the Lions. Build the team. 

 

Alex Smith played well yesterday. For Alex Smith.  Just because it was good for him does not mean his play is up to the level that you need in the NFL.  If we had a good QB this team would be totally different, just as so many teams' fortunes have changed when they got one of those players.  

[88Comrade2000]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

They might keep Smith around to be the starter in 2021 and ease in the 2021 drafted QB. Maybe they can do some sort of a restructure of Smith's contract, but I don't think it's as much of a foregone conclusion that he's gone like many thought prior to the season.

OvertheCap says the hit would be $9m ... so it would free up about $14m if we cut him outright OR he retires.

 

Our cap situation next year will be interesting. We HAD a lot of projected cap, but that was when the projected cap was $210 to 220m. OvertheCap now has it projected at $176m. So we will roll over $23m into next year ... plus based on that projection we'd then have about $66 million in cap space if we cut Smith, and $52m if we don't. That's a lot of $$ to have compared to the rest of the league which will be in very dire straits with the roughly $40m in reduced cap.

Speaking of the cap for 21; any ideas just how much less will it be next year.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Speaking of the cap for 21; any ideas just how much less will it be next year.

 

Per OvertheCap, the Projected Salary Cap will drop from $209 million this year to $176 million in 2021. Then it goes back up to $227m in 2022, but I am not sure if that's just what it was pre-COVID and they're leaving it there before making any drastic changes.

 

In 2021, WFT has $147m committed on a $176m projected cap, so about $29m of cap space currently. We are currently $23m under the 2020 cap, so assuming nothing changes dramatically between now and the end of the year we are likely to roll over at least $20m, putting us around $49m in cap space. If we were to cut Smith that frees up $14m in 2021, so we'd have about $66m in cap space.

 

I am working on a quick spreadsheet to calculate where every other team will stand. Hang tight.

[88Comrade2000]

2 hours ago, GothSkinsFan said:

1.  With FA turnover what it is today, it's the organizations who play each other, not the "teams" in the sense of the same players.  I'm not saying FA is bad, but these days they're not teams so much as rosters.

 

2.  The current system rewards bad divisions by guaranteeing the "best" of the bad (8-8 or worse) a playoff spot at the expense of a team that is at least 10-6.  2014, CAR wins the NFCS with a *losing* record while PHI at 10-6 sits home.  2013, GB wins div being a half game (8-7-1) over .500 while 10-6 AZ stays home.  2010, SEA wins NFCW at 7-9, 10-6 NYG and TB go home.  2008 - SD wins div at 8-8, NE at 11-5 is out.  11 and 5. 

 

Before 2002, which is when the 4 div/conf format was instituted, no team had ever won a division with less than a winning record.  Yes, there were a couple of 8-7-1 type winners, but there was nothing like the mischief that occurs now.  And, moreover, having more divisions leads to situations where, yes, a division winner has a winning record, but it's 9-7 and a much better team in another division is iced out.  I want good football, which the current system discourages.  Even more absurd -- a team that wins its division with 7 or fewer wins (which usually means it's going to lose its playoff game) is going to pick 19th in the draft.  WTH?  I can legitimately see a situation where every team in a horrible division tries to avoid winning it just for that reason.  Whereas at 6-10 you might be draft at #9, if you "win" your division, you lose 10 spots. 

 

Heck, might as well just hold an end-of-season lottery to determine all playoff teams, regardless of record.  It could be made into a spectacle with the latest HOF class picking the balls outta the hopper and then they can lottery the draft order for the remaining teams too.  Put it on TV, sell advertising, and make a fortune.  That's what the NFL is all about anyway.  Actually, I think that would be a lot of fun.

The nfl isn’t changing.  We are going to a 17 game season; maybe as soon as 21. Definitely, by the time a new Tv deals starts.

 

Even under the old system; you had 8-8 division winners. Also, the nfl just expanded to 14 playoff teams this year.

 

If the NFL ever went to the old format; then it meant the nfl expanded to 36 teams. 6 in each division.

 

Is the nfl perfect, no. The current setup is fine. One mediocre team in the playoffs isn’t going to kill anyone. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

3 hours ago, GothSkinsFan said:

Let's be careful with the high pick talk.  4-12 might win the NFC Least.  Then you're picking #19.

I've never liked the 4 division/2 WC set up.  Go back to 3 divisions + 3 WCs.

 

I can't blame a team for actually rooting for his/her team to win a division. But for those of us thinking past January picking 19 would be a disaster.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Per over the cap here's the 2021 cap situation if everyone rolls over the current 2020 cap situation. So 2020 excess rolling into current projected 2021 cap space based on the $176m reduced cap (down $33m from 2020 cap of $209m).

1. Jaguars - $82.7m

2. Jets - $80.5m

3. Colts - $76.4m

4. Patriots - $64.2m

5. Football Team: $52.3m ($66.3m if Smith cut)

6. Bengals - $44.6m

7. Chargers - $32m

8. Dolphins - $31.8m

9. Bucs - $30.3m

10. Ravens - $30.1m

11. Broncos - $28.2m

12. Browns - $27.4m

13. Cowboys - $27.4m

14. Cardinals - $25.9m

15. Giants - $23.3m

16. 49ers - $22.2m

17. Panthers - $19.8m

18. Seahawks - $19.2m

19. Lions - $13.4m

20. Titans - $6.4m

21. Packers - $1.9m

22. Bills - $1.6m

23. Bears - $0.2m

24. Vikings - ($5.0m)

25. Raiders - ($6.5m)

26. Texans - ($9.5m)

27. Chiefs - ($12.8m)

28. Rams - ($19.3m)

29. Steelers - ($19.7m)

30. Falcons - ($24.8m)

31. Eagles - ($64.3m)

32. Saints - ($94.1m)

[Dark Acre]

17 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

The nfl isn’t changing.  We are going to a 17 game season; maybe as soon as 21. Definitely, by the time a new Tv starts.

 

Even under the old system; you had 8-8 division winners. Also, the nfl just expanded to 14 playoff teams this year.

 

If the NFL ever went to the old format; then it meant the nfl expanded to 36 teams. 6 in each division.

 

Is the nfl perfect, no. The current setup is fine. One mediocre team in the playoffs isn’t going to kill anyone. 

Nope, never had an 8-8 division winner.  I went to pro-football-reference dot com and looked back through every season to 1967.  BTW, before the NFL-AFL merger, the divisions in the NFL were named sorta like the way the NHL used to.  Go Patrick division!

[boston skins fan]

Question regarding Wilson.  Because its looking more and more likely that the WFT will likely pick between Wilson and Lance

 

When was the last QB to skyrocket up the draft board actually be good in the NFL?  Asking because players that move up the board that quickly are usually hit or miss

[JamesMadisonSkins]

7 minutes ago, boston skins fan said:

Question regarding Wilson.  Because its looking more and more likely that the WFT will likely pick between Wilson and Lance

 

When was the last QB to skyrocket up the draft board actually be good in the NFL?  Asking because players that move up the board that quickly are usually hit or miss

 

Joe Burrow? I mean the book is still out on him, but he rose from a 4th-6th rounder to the sure-fire unanimous all-world #1 pick haha.

 

I could be wrong, but isn't Wilson a Redshirt Sophomore? So he might not even come out, but if he does, it wouldn't be abnormal for a guy to shoot up the boards like that because other than maybe being a higher-ranked recruit, you have to get on the field to show what you can do.

 

I think a guy like Wilson SHOULD come out given where his stock is trending, but let's not forget that Justin Herbert could have been the #1 QB picked in 2019 and opted to go back to school for another year.

 

We are also just a few months removed from some people saying Trey Lance could be pushing for the #2 pick ahead of Fields. Of course, Lance only got to play 1 game, but he shouldn't be overlooked in this discussion. We are fortunate to be in desperate need of a QB in a year where there could be 4 Top 10 caliber QBs.

[boston skins fan]

5 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Joe Burrow? I mean the book is still out on him, but he rose from a 4th-6th rounder to the sure-fire unanimous all-world #1 pick haha.

 

I could be wrong, but isn't Wilson a Redshirt Sophomore? So he might not even come out, but if he does, it wouldn't be abnormal for a guy to shoot up the boards like that because other than maybe being a higher-ranked recruit, you have to get on the field to show what you can do.

 

I think a guy like Wilson SHOULD come out given where his stock is trending, but let's not forget that Justin Herbert could have been the #1 QB picked in 2018 and opted to go back to school for another year.

 

I believe hes a true Junior 3 year starter.  From what i read he was consistent his 1st 2 yrs and his number have jumped this season.  Alot of pundits have him ahead of Lance already.  That might be because Lance only has 1 game under his belt this year. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

At the end of the day, I would be pretty happy if our future QB was one of Fields, Lance or Wilson. At this point, it seems likely that that is the case, barring us signing Dak Prescott in the off-season.

9 minutes ago, boston skins fan said:

 

I believe hes a true Junior 3 year starter.  From what i read he was consistent his 1st 2 yrs and his number have jumped this season.  Alot of pundits have him ahead of Lance already.  That might be because Lance only has 1 game under his belt this year. 

 

Yep, you're right. Fairly pedestrian low-volume numbers his first two years as a starter, but he was a starter his true freshman and sophomore years, which is impressive in its own right, even if the numbers didn't pop.

 

Lance is definitely a dual-threat, but probably not as much in the NFL. I think I saw his comparison was Dak Prescott, which feels accurate. I saw him play live at the national championship game against jMU last year and he just makes plays that make you go "holy ****" ... that "it" factor that I think many would say Mahomes, Russell Wilson, etc. all have at the NFL level. Whether it translates from FCS to NFL is TBD, especially with him being so young/raw.

 

Now that I think about it, if the pick IS either Wilson or Lance, I think you try and bring back Smith on a re-worked contract to be the mentor and 2021 starter.

[boston skins fan]

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

At the end of the day, I would be pretty happy if our future QB was one of Fields, Lance or Wilson. At this point, it seems likely that that is the case, barring us signing Dak Prescott in the off-season.

 

Yep, you're right. Fairly pedestrian low-volume numbers his first two years as a starter, but he was a starter his true freshman and sophomore years, which is impressive in its own right, even if the numbers didn't pop.

 

Lance is definitely a dual-threat, but probably not as much in the NFL. I think I saw his comparison was Dak Prescott, which feels accurate. I saw him play live at the national championship game against jMU last year and he just makes plays that make you go "holy ****" ... that "it" factor that I think many would say Mahomes, Russell Wilson, etc. all have at the NFL level. Whether it translates from FCS to NFL is TBD, especially with him being so young/raw.

 

Now that I think about it, if the pick IS either Wilson or Lance, I think you try and bring back Smith on a re-worked contract to be the mentor and 2021 starter.

 

im 100% on board with this.  Shield the kid atleast 1 season because i dont see the Oline being fixed by then.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I am still all-in on the idea of going QB in R1, and then with R2,3,3 going offense. WR, OT, TE.

I think you fix the defense through free agency as much as possible.

 

If someone like Kenny Golladay or Allen Robinson get loose in free agency then land one of them, and prioritize TE and OL in the draft. Unfortunately I'm not sure you're going to find a sure-fire LT in the 2nd round, but if it's early R2, someone might slip.

 

Maybe Charles ends up being the LT, but the fact they played him at LG this year with Christian at LT makes me think they're putting him at RT or OG long-term.

[KDawg]

If we don’t fix linebacker this offseason I may cry real tears.

[method man]

10 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

At the end of the day, I would be pretty happy if our future QB was one of Fields, Lance or Wilson. At this point, it seems likely that that is the case, barring us signing Dak Prescott in the off-season.

 

Yep, you're right. Fairly pedestrian low-volume numbers his first two years as a starter, but he was a starter his true freshman and sophomore years, which is impressive in its own right, even if the numbers didn't pop.

 

Lance is definitely a dual-threat, but probably not as much in the NFL. I think I saw his comparison was Dak Prescott, which feels accurate. I saw him play live at the national championship game against jMU last year and he just makes plays that make you go "holy ****" ... that "it" factor that I think many would say Mahomes, Russell Wilson, etc. all have at the NFL level. Whether it translates from FCS to NFL is TBD, especially with him being so young/raw.

 

Now that I think about it, if the pick IS either Wilson or Lance, I think you try and bring back Smith on a re-worked contract to be the mentor and 2021 starter.

 

Wilson had a good freshman year and then wasn’t good last year as he was recovering from shoulder and hand surgeries. 

Why would you bring Alex back when you can instead have Kyle Allen on an ERFA tender making < $1m?

Just now, KDawg said:

If we don’t fix linebacker this offseason I may cry real tears.

Dude Ron hasn’t made it anymore obvious that this is a need to be filled. Issue is that FA, as of now, is light. The cream of the crop is Lavonte David, who is turning 31 in January. I am interested in Matt Milano too but, per PFF, he is having a down year

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, method man said:

 

Wilson had a good freshman year and then wasn’t good last year as he was recovering from shoulder and hand surgeries. 

Why would you bring Alex back when you can instead have Kyle Allen on an ERFA tender making < $1m?

 

This is a good point. I guess I am putting a lot of stock in the "Smith can work miracles as a mentor" card but clearly that didn't work out too well with Haskins to this point. I think you still want to have another option around at QB given Allen will be coming back from a brutal injury, but I guess you could get that for cheap (or keep Haskins around, but that seems unlikely).